Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

[fruity pebbles]

Stagflation anyone?

I read the term “slugflation” thus morning: sluggish growth with high inflation. A rose by any other name…

And now rate cuts are coming

The rate cuts we did have were incredibly premature. IMO we are significantly more likely to see rate hikes rather than cuts. That's what the mortgage and bond markets are saying.

I can’t see them raising. Would basically be shouting that they’re incompetent. Sitting where we are for a year I could definitely see.

 

[General Malaise]

I saw something yesterday that indicted odds of 2-3 rate cuts this year have increased but can't find it so ignore me. I'm a little rattled personally at the moment and need to go touch some grass.

Or smoke it.

 

[Schmeabs]

I was thinking 1 or 2 additional 25 basis point cuts starting mid year but now I see 1 cut at best.

 

[kevzilla]

One cut no earlier than midsummer is where I'm at. I'm sure the Fed cares

 

[BassNBrew]

Starbucks cutting 7% of it's corporate workforce.

 

[Todem]

Two more .25% rate cuts at some point this year IMO......and they are done for a long while.

 

[MTskibum]

Starbucks cutting 7% of it's corporate workforce.

I think bad unemployment is going to come at us fast.

The company I work for just finished layoffs a month ago and are starting more layoffs/restructurings.

 

[BassNBrew]

Starbucks cutting 7% of it's corporate workforce.

I think bad unemployment is going to come at us fast.

The company I work for just finished layoffs a month ago and are starting more layoffs/restructurings.

I think the Fed wanted a little more unemployment.

 

[Desert_Power]

I think the Fed's bias is a long pause but I expect a weak labor market to eventually win out.

 

[kevzilla]

I think I'm going to sell 50 of my 110 shares of BX. I'm still up a pile, and this would recoup about 80% of my cost basis. Also, I have no dry powder. Buffett is raising cash, even though he is already at Scrooge McDuck levels. This would get my Little Orphan IRA from zero-ish to >20% cash.

The taxable account remains all AMZN. Ride and die.

 

[pecorino]

LW trading under $53 for those of you interested in investing in extruded potato products.

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...had a limit order in for a penny stock and it partially filled for 29 of 2000 shares.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Last of the big time spenders

 

[BassNBrew]

So apparently Canada/Mexico tariffs are back on again.

 

[Buckna]

NVDA earnings Wednesday, should make for an interesting week.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

 

[ghostguy123]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

So......buy??

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

So......buy??

Extreme fear has always been a great time to start or add to positions.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

So......buy??

Extreme fear has always been a great time to start or add to positions.

Usually extreme fear comes alongside a little better discount than the SP500 being 2.5% off ATH though.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

So......buy??

Extreme fear has always been a great time to start or add to positions.

Usually extreme fear comes alongside a little better discount than the SP500 being 2.5% off ATH though.

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

 

[BassNBrew]

I sold off 90%-95% of my Palantir at $80, $102, $112, and $115. Any reason to not start building this position back a couple of shares at a time? Maybe try to replace them at 25% discount and stay very disciplined with that plan?

 

[Stoneworker]

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yep. My large cap value ETF is up 5% YTD while SPY only a shade over 2%

 

[fruity pebbles]

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yep. My large cap value ETF is up 5% YTD while SPY only a shade over 2%

Yeah and Nasdaq is down. Big move to consumer staples but they are looking pretty pricey too imo. Forward PEs of Walmart 37, Costco 58, Coke 24, Procter Gamble 24. Those four are nearly 50% of VDC, the consumer staples index etf. Now compare with the forward PEs of Meta 26, Microsoft 30, Google 20 and Amazon 34.

 

[stbugs]

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yep. My large cap value ETF is up 5% YTD while SPY only a shade over 2%

Yeah and Nasdaq is down. Big move to consumer staples but they are looking pretty pricey too imo. Forward PEs of Walmart 37, Costco 58, Coke 24, Procter Gamble 24. Those four are nearly 50% of VDC, the consumer staples index etf. Now compare with the forward PEs of Meta 26, Microsoft 30, Google 20 and Amazon 34.

Yep, that’s the funny part. People seem to think the big tech companies are expensive and their flight to safety is companies with much lower growth that belies there PEs that are way more expensive than people realize. The other thing is that the four mag 7 stocks you listed are spending a **** ton on future revenue sources otherwise their earnings could be much higher.

 

[Buckna]

Fear and Greed index now at 29, fear getting close to extreme fear.

So......buy??

Extreme fear has always been a great time to start or add to positions.

Usually extreme fear comes alongside a little better discount than the SP500 being 2.5% off ATH though.

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yeah correction started on the 19th for a lot of big tech and momentum. Debating adding a few names back tomorrow.

 

[Stoneworker]

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yep. My large cap value ETF is up 5% YTD while SPY only a shade over 2%

Yeah and Nasdaq is down. Big move to consumer staples but they are looking pretty pricey too imo. Forward PEs of Walmart 37, Costco 58, Coke 24, Procter Gamble 24. Those four are nearly 50% of VDC, the consumer staples index etf. Now compare with the forward PEs of Meta 26, Microsoft 30, Google 20 and Amazon 34.

P&G and Coke are also components of high-dividend ETFs that have also enjoyed the recent rotation party

 

[fruity pebbles]

Rotation has kept it afloat. A lot of the momentum names are down huge (Pltr comes to mind) and even big cap tech is down 15%

Yep. My large cap value ETF is up 5% YTD while SPY only a shade over 2%

Yeah and Nasdaq is down. Big move to consumer staples but they are looking pretty pricey too imo. Forward PEs of Walmart 37, Costco 58, Coke 24, Procter Gamble 24. Those four are nearly 50% of VDC, the consumer staples index etf. Now compare with the forward PEs of Meta 26, Microsoft 30, Google 20 and Amazon 34.

Yep, that’s the funny part. People seem to think the big tech companies are expensive and their flight to safety is companies with much lower growth that belies there PEs that are way more expensive than people realize. The other thing is that the four mag 7 stocks you listed are spending a **** ton on future revenue sources otherwise their earnings could be much higher.

I never catch the bottom but those four are where I’m putting the cash I’ve had sitting on the sidelines and will keep buying as they go lower.

 

[Ridgeback]

HIMS would have been a beautiful short last week. As would have TSLA a month ago.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

HIMS would have been a beautiful short last week. As would have TSLA a month ago.

This one kinda screams class action in waiting.

 

[Ridgeback]

HIMS would have been a beautiful short last week. As would have TSLA a month ago.

This one kinda screams class action in waiting.

One would hope.

 

[Buckna]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

 

[BassNBrew]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

 

[General Malaise]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

 

[fruity pebbles]

sitting on too much cash to start the year and lagging the market, felt like a kid in a candy store today

 

[BassNBrew]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

With cream and tip it’s 5 freaking bucks here

 

[Ridgeback]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

Too bad it taste like burnt bunghole.

 

[fruity pebbles]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

Too bad it taste like burnt bunghole.

Keep talking……..

 

[General Malaise]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

With cream and tip it’s 5 freaking bucks here

Cream? Are you 7?

 

[BassNBrew]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

With cream and tip it’s 5 freaking bucks here

Cream? Are you 7?

Yes, sir. Damn near a penny on the floor moment for me besides without the cream that crap doesn’t cool down for an hour.

 

[General Malaise]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

With cream and tip it’s 5 freaking bucks here

Cream? Are you 7?

Yes, sir. Damn near a penny on the floor moment for me besides without the cream that crap doesn’t cool down for an hour.

I ask for a couple of ice cubes.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Damn, those momentum names have gotten smoked. In the span of a week and a half. Tesla -28%, Hims -45%, Robinhood -30%, Palantir -30%

 

[SFBayDuck]

If you’re into the arcane art of technical analysis, whole lot of hammer candlesticks today around support levels. AMZN in particular is one that stands out. That “analysis” plus $5 might buy you a cup of coffee…

Not at Starbucks.

Venti dark roast - $3.25

Subtract 10 cents if you use you're own mug.

Take that!

With cream and tip it’s 5 freaking bucks here

Cream? Are you 7?

Yes, sir. Damn near a penny on the floor moment for me besides without the cream that crap doesn’t cool down for an hour.

I ask for a couple of ice cubes.

What are you, 7?

 

[BassNBrew]

Loves mornings like this. I don't work for Jamie Dimon so I sit on my coach sipping a latte with Whipped Cream on top trying to decide how much SCMI that I bought yesterday that I want to sell.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

 

[Capella]

Big day for nvda I guess today. Down 10% the last week before this morning.

 

[NajehHejan]

I can’t hold NVDA through earnings. Market has been very fickle lately. I see upside 5% max but downside 20-30%. I need to sleep well at night. I’m out with my measly 10% gain.

 

[ghostguy123]

I don’t think I can hold NVDA through earnings. Market has been very fickle lately. I see upside 5% max but downside 20-30%. I need to sleep well at night. I’m out with my measly 10% gain.

Guessing this has been why it's gone down some. Profit taking? Probably not a bad idea after a bagillion percent go n

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I see upside 5%

I can't necessarily argue since none of us know, but if they kill earnings (like usual) 5% upside seems like an undersell.

Obviously a miss and the second half of your statement could be the reality.

 

[BassNBrew]

I can’t hold NVDA through earnings. Market has been very fickle lately. I see upside 5% max but downside 20-30%. I need to sleep well at night. I’m out with my measly 10% gain.

30% down would be awesome. Don’t think we’ll get that lucky.

 

[NajehHejan]

Just to clarify - I don't see NVDA missing on the top or bottom lines - they'll likely smash on both - but for some reason, the way this market has been, I can see it plummet 20-30% for either no good reason (sell the news) or for some made up reason like "analysts didn't like the carpet color they picked for the 2028 board room refresh"