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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Added some Amazon at $183, Meta at $555.55 and Celius $33.26 which was down about 10% after hours.

Bottom fishing several others.

I missed the lows, Amazon at 185, Meta at 560 and Google at 151
update
Hard to say. Futures don't mean much when individual stocks aren't available to trade.

I picked up Amazon at a 6% discount to it's close, just about 75% of it's ATH. If it goes lower, I'll buy more. If I run out of money and it goes even lower, I'll unload my LYB type stocks and buy more.

Since the recent quarter is closed (well all but Nvidia). These are the forward PEs after earnings are released in a couple weeks and if not adjusted up or down.
GOOG 16
NVDA 21
META 21
MSFT 27
AMZN 27
I just don't get it. Unless you can make an argument that their revenues are going to crater I don't see the reason for the disproportionate sell off.

Anything is possible I guess but even if revenues are cut, I could see them still making earnings estimates by scaling back their capex spending some.
 
Well, in mine andy wife's Roth account we are at like 85% cash.
So......buy up a bunch tomorrow? Wait for a further drop??

Hardest part is getting back in. It always seems like it’s going to go lower and then it doesn’t and you wait until those lows come again……and they don’t. We could certainly go lower but if it were me I’d be atleast starting to scale back in at these levels.
 
Well, in mine andy wife's Roth account we are at like 85% cash.
So......buy up a bunch tomorrow? Wait for a further drop??
What do you think the absolute downside is?
Zero clue.
This isn't a huge amount of money though. Our Roth accounts combined are only like 1/10 what I have in my 403b, which just stays 100% equities.
If you keep it in cash forever then it will stay small. When NVDA is $160 at the end of the year are you won't remember if you bought it at $105, $100, $90, or even $80, but you will remember that you screwed up by not buying it.
 
Forward PEs at the 2022 low vs the aftermarket lows tonight after earnings in a couple weeks.

AMZN…..now 27.6…..2022 41
META…..now 21.3…..2022 11.6 (when Zuckerberg was spending a ton on the metaverse and everyone thought he was nuts)
GOOG…..now 16.3…..2022 15.9
NVDA…..now 21.5…..2022 30.5
MSFT…..now 24.6…..2022 23.1
 
Well, in mine andy wife's Roth account we are at like 85% cash.
So......buy up a bunch tomorrow? Wait for a further drop??
What do you think the absolute downside is?
Assuming we actually follow through with these insane tariffs?

By July - Manufacturing is nonexistent. Food prices basically 30% higher. Unemployment in low teens
 
I like all this chatter about mega cap tech stocks. Personally, I just plow into QQQ to get the whole batch plus lots of others. Smooths out big moves so it stunts any massive gains but works for me.
 
Anyone know whether tariffs imposed by executive order are able to be undone by some other means like Congress or the Senate? Asking for a friend.
 
Anyone know whether tariffs imposed by executive order are able to be undone by some other means like Congress or the Senate? Asking for a friend.

Yes but Congress would need to pass a law taking away Trumps authority which would mean over riding his veto. That is very unlikely.
 
Anyone know whether tariffs imposed by executive order are able to be undone by some other means like Congress or the Senate? Asking for a friend.

Yes but Congress would need to pass a law taking away Trumps authority which would mean over riding his veto. That is very unlikely.
Thanks, this is in the info I was looking for. We do not need to go further down this path as I don't want to see anyone banned or this thread shut down. What I'm hearing is that it would take an override of a veto which is extremely unlikely. Did not know that. Thanks.
 
@Todem

Thoughts on Blue Owl Capital https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/OBDC

Looks like strong consistent dividends around 10% and a pretty stable stock price. Potential DOW (the chemical company) replacement?
It’s a private credit company. So what they do is totally different than Dow.

I wouldn’t classify this as a replacement because the sector is completely different.

DOW and LYB will again rise in share price over time. I wouldn’t replace them with this.

More like if you want some more high yield in a different industry then this could be an addition to an overall asset allocation.

I love private credit and do that for high net worth accredited investors eho understand the liquidity is highly limited and that private credit is a pure long term income play.

Blue Owl would be a nice combo with BX (Blackstone) which I staryed buying again down here.
 
Meta should definitely be down 5% after hours because they are so tariff dependant
Just added. I think there's money to be made tonight.

Me too. Meta, Google and Amazon. Down big because they’re the most liquid not because they’re the most affected by these tariffs. If they drop another 5% from here i’ll keep adding.
Yep. Amazon is tariff dependent but their main source of profit is AWS (and advertising like META) but they are down 6%+ and Walmart who I’ve already posted has a higher PE for lower growth is done 4.5%. Walmart’s entire business is tariff dependent. Walmart should be down way more.

This is gonna suck for a bit although the 30%+ cash (going up % every day now) I have will feel better depending on when I shove that all in.
 
Added some Amazon at $183, Meta at $555.55 and Celius $33.26 which was down about 10% after hours.

Bottom fishing several others.

I missed the lows, Amazon at 185, Meta at 560 and Google at 151
update
Hard to say. Futures don't mean much when individual stocks aren't available to trade.

I picked up Amazon at a 6% discount to it's close, just about 75% of it's ATH. If it goes lower, I'll buy more. If I run out of money and it goes even lower, I'll unload my LYB type stocks and buy more.

Since the recent quarter is closed (well all but Nvidia). These are the forward PEs after earnings are released in a couple weeks and if not adjusted up or down.
GOOG 16
NVDA 21
META 21
MSFT 25
AMZN 27
And some of these PEs are artificially lower. Amazon and others have said they are spending like crazy on data center build outs. These guys already were doing that in 2024. That build out will not be a forever thing so when that slows down their profits will boom. These other higher PE “value” stocks are more expensive and don’t have that magic lever in the future.

Also, I work in software and AI is absolutely real and absolutely of interest to all our customers, many of whom would be considered stodgy old entities and man they are concerned about saving money. I don’t think the capital expenditures from these guys aren’t back by a potentially massive demand.

Still not sure when I will push the rest in because I felt like it’s not the bottom before and there doesn’t appear to be a near term catalyst upward.
 
Sucks that it’s early April and it seems hard to believe you are able to see any green this year. I’m down 40% in my tech account.
 
I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.

The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.

Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.

 
Added some Amazon at $183, Meta at $555.55 and Celius $33.26 which was down about 10% after hours.

Bottom fishing several others.

I missed the lows, Amazon at 185, Meta at 560 and Google at 151
update
Hard to say. Futures don't mean much when individual stocks aren't available to trade.

I picked up Amazon at a 6% discount to it's close, just about 75% of it's ATH. If it goes lower, I'll buy more. If I run out of money and it goes even lower, I'll unload my LYB type stocks and buy more.

Since the recent quarter is closed (well all but Nvidia). These are the forward PEs after earnings are released in a couple weeks and if not adjusted up or down.
GOOG 16
NVDA 21
META 21
MSFT 25
AMZN 27
And some of these PEs are artificially lower. Amazon and others have said they are spending like crazy on data center build outs. These guys already were doing that in 2024. That build out will not be a forever thing so when that slows down their profits will boom. These other higher PE “value” stocks are more expensive and don’t have that magic lever in the future.

Also, I work in software and AI is absolutely real and absolutely of interest to all our customers, many of whom would be considered stodgy old entities and man they are concerned about saving money. I don’t think the capital expenditures from these guys aren’t back by a potentially massive demand.

Still not sure when I will push the rest in because I felt like it’s not the bottom before and there doesn’t appear to be a near term catalyst upward.
How much lower do you think is possible with at least a 67% confidence level?

Personally hoping for panic selling and the circuit breakers tripping today after margins calls. Likely will sell most non-tech stuff and rotate towards even more tech if we see a broader sell off.
 
Added some Amazon at $183, Meta at $555.55 and Celius $33.26 which was down about 10% after hours.

Bottom fishing several others.

I missed the lows, Amazon at 185, Meta at 560 and Google at 151
update
Hard to say. Futures don't mean much when individual stocks aren't available to trade.

I picked up Amazon at a 6% discount to it's close, just about 75% of it's ATH. If it goes lower, I'll buy more. If I run out of money and it goes even lower, I'll unload my LYB type stocks and buy more.

Since the recent quarter is closed (well all but Nvidia). These are the forward PEs after earnings are released in a couple weeks and if not adjusted up or down.
GOOG 16
NVDA 21
META 21
MSFT 25
AMZN 27
And some of these PEs are artificially lower. Amazon and others have said they are spending like crazy on data center build outs. These guys already were doing that in 2024. That build out will not be a forever thing so when that slows down their profits will boom. These other higher PE “value” stocks are more expensive and don’t have that magic lever in the future.

Also, I work in software and AI is absolutely real and absolutely of interest to all our customers, many of whom would be considered stodgy old entities and man they are concerned about saving money. I don’t think the capital expenditures from these guys aren’t back by a potentially massive demand.

Still not sure when I will push the rest in because I felt like it’s not the bottom before and there doesn’t appear to be a near term catalyst upward.
How much lower do you think is possible with at least a 67% confidence level?

Personally hoping for panic selling and the circuit breakers tripping today after margins calls. Likely will sell most non-tech stuff and rotate towards even more tech if we see a broader sell off.
Honestly, no clue but with nothing stopping it, it could bleed for a while. The only positive catalyst is Trump getting some sort of agreement to remove tariffs or make them smaller. I don’t work for Trump or any other governments so I would have no idea. I wonder if those senate/congress stock following services would be able to show heavy new purchases. I definitely could see some senators/congress(wo)men finding out good news early.
 
I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.

The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.

Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.

That’s not where the big money in AI is going to be IMHO. I agree on OpenAI, with one caveat. Think Google. Web search isn’t rocket science and there were plenty of companies who did it but Google dominated it in the end. No idea on ChapGPT in the end, but “searching” will still be there aided by AI. That said, Google makes its money on advertising due to owning content (YouTube) and searching. There will be one or maybe a couple of ChatGPT type winners for the new search/assistant (like writing code) but Google might even end up one of those winners.

Anyway, if you think LLM will crash and not be profitable, think about Google and other companies with massive advertising revenue. AI will absolutely be around a lot longer and make massive amounts of money for companies that can save their customers money.
 
What's good at Wendy's these day
Just make sure to use their app. Lots of savings.

This goes somewhere else, but I am amazed at how lazy people can be. I walked into Arby’s (I know) after ordering online where I got a sandwich and a free large side. I paid $7 for a huge lunch. Dude in front of me looked like a typical blue collar worker driving a van that said, hourly worker not business owner. He orders some combo and pays twice as much. Just by using the app, I saved paying basically $7 for a drink and I got more food.

I don’t eat out at lunch a lot but working from home does make me visit here and there, especially after a long morning or the realization that there’s nothing to make in the fridge and no time to shop. It just amazes me how few people take advantage of restaurant apps that can save you 25-50% every visit especially with rewards getting you free stuff. Same with coupons. Paying $30ish at Jersey Mike’s for 3 giants instead of $45ish is a nice inflation buster and yes I know, but the Wendy’s comment made me think.
 
What's good at Wendy's these day
Just make sure to use their app. Lots of savings.

This goes somewhere else, but I am amazed at how lazy people can be. I walked into Arby’s (I know) after ordering online where I got a sandwich and a free large side. I paid $7 for a huge lunch. Dude in front of me looked like a typical blue collar worker driving a van that said, hourly worker not business owner. He orders some combo and pays twice as much. Just by using the app, I saved paying basically $7 for a drink and I got more food.

I don’t eat out at lunch a lot but working from home does make me visit here and there, especially after a long morning or the realization that there’s nothing to make in the fridge and no time to shop. It just amazes me how few people take advantage of restaurant apps that can save you 25-50% every visit especially with rewards getting you free stuff. Same with coupons. Paying $30ish at Jersey Mike’s for 3 giants instead of $45ish is a nice inflation buster and yes I know, but the Wendy’s comment made me think.
Yep...

Gotta use the app
 
any buyers today or waiting for more pain?
Personally waiting. Layoffs are already happening (Stellantis). At least in my head a fairly deep recession is all but inevitable. Unemployment doubles, at least.

My median expectation is -30% for the S&P. If the EU, China, and Japan manage to get tariffs dropped quickly (a year from now doesn't help) then the equation changes a good bit.
 
The S&P has been in a trading range between 5700 and 5400 for the past month. There is significant support at the 5400 level so it may settle above there for awhile. Decent amount at 5200. If it breaks below 5200 then look out below.

I'm no technical analysis wizard but those are my thoughts.

Sitting on a bunch of cash myself for long-term deployment but not touching this market until it establishes a higher low back above 5700 and/or 200 DMA.
 
I bought some META, AMZN, and IVV, but I have more cash right now than typical due to some merger stuff, so it seems silly to do nothing on a big down day like today. I don't feel comfortable plowing a ton in right now, though.
 

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