Stock Thread (42 Viewers)

[stbugs]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

 

[pecorino]

Also buying JPM. Down to my last 20 % of dry powder, holding to see how things shake out Friday. Is it happy hour yet?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Hey but Coke’s at an all time high

 

[stbugs]

any buyers today or waiting for more pain?

We bought a fair amount of VOO this morning. Don't feel great about. This country seems determined to cause a recession and severely reduce it's long term production capacity. Stocks should be lower.

Many stocks should be lower regardless. The value stocks are still within 10% of their highest highs of this year with crazy high PEs. That flight to safety should be punished. So many tech stocks, many of which have little to no tariff exposure are down big time and relatively much cheaper.

 

[General Malaise]

Stagflation anyone?

Bump

Inflation
Rising unemployment
Wealth destruction

Bad time to lose your job when your savings just took a 20% dump in 3 months.

Cool stuff.

 

[Redwes25]

Bought a little QQQ this morning but man it is a blood bath today.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

I don’t think people are only looking to sell stocks that are affected by tariffs. Many are just trying to put a bandaid on their losses.

And also now people are seeing a recession coming and panicking a bit.

I’m buying - but some people don’t have the stomach for it.

 

[Stoneworker]

On the bond side, the 2-year is hovering right around 3.7%.

As Jeffrey Gundlach says, the Fed actually follows the 2-year, not the other way around. So a 3.7% rate strongly implies a Fed rate cut of 50-60bps in the next two years.

There is huge resistance for the 2-year falling below the 3.5% level. But if/when it closes below that then the bond market will have begun to price in a recession.

IMO

 

[Ilov80s]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

I think the idea with something like Amazon being down is the expectation a whole bunch of people are losing money, losing savings and about to lose their jobs so Amazon sales may decline significatly.

 

[McBokonon]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs?

Nothing directly but if the economy craters, I imagine ad budgets get reduced pretty early on.

 

[beef]

Bought a little QQQ this morning but man it is a blood bath today.

I keep adding. Not huge buys, but I'll ride this DCA as long as I can afford to and wait it out.

 

[BassNBrew]

Oh $hit

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/oh-sh-rh-ceo-reacts-live-to-stock-tanking-on-tariffs-poor-earnings.html

 

[BassNBrew]

Stagflation anyone?

Bump

Inflation
Rising unemployment
Wealth destruction

Bad time to lose your job when your savings just took a 20% dump in 3 months.

Cool stuff.

Self destructive behavior?

Market manipulation?

I'm out

You just went 100% cash?

 

[Redwes25]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

We run a 100 billion services surplus with the EU. A lot of that goes to big tech. I think people are worried that is in the cross hairs as that is how the EU can retailate and hurt us given we have such large trade deficits with the EU.

 

[BassNBrew]

Can't wait to see what a $150 sneaker costs this summer.

 

[urbanhack]

Stagflation anyone?

Bump

Inflation
Rising unemployment
Wealth destruction

Bad time to lose your job when your savings just took a 20% dump in 3 months.

Cool stuff.

Self destructive behavior?

Market manipulation?

I'm out

You just went 100% cash?

No...sorry...was more of a rant.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Thank the gods for the tin miner in the middle of an actual war zone. It's only down 2%.

 

[BassNBrew]

Stagflation anyone?

Bump

Inflation
Rising unemployment
Wealth destruction

Bad time to lose your job when your savings just took a 20% dump in 3 months.

Cool stuff.

Self destructive behavior?

Market manipulation?

I'm out

You just went 100% cash?

No...sorry...was more of a rant.

Thanks...nothing personal, when people 100% sell that's usually a good sign of the bottom.

 

[Desert_Power]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

We run a 100 billion services surplus with the EU. A lot of that goes to big tech. I think people are worried that is in the cross hairs as that is how the EU can retailate and hurt us given we have such large trade deficits with the EU.

This is primarily just large tech/pharma companies hiding profits in Ireland.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

ENB is green!

 

[ghostguy123]

Normally I'd feel ok with my SOXL coat basis of 15.79.

I put in like 7-8 limit orders today on stuff, not even really expecting them to hit. All have hit but Google.

Just gonna keep buying. Why not. I'm young-ish

 

[fruity pebbles]

Berkshire cracks me up. Its two largest holdings Apple and American Express are down 9% each but the fund is basically flat for the day.

 

[BassNBrew]

Berkshire cracks me up. Its two largest holdings Apple and American Express are down 9% each but the fund is basically flat for the day.

Pretty crazy. Been having this exact discussion with my son who is heavily invested in them percentage wise.

 

[MTskibum]

I think that the realization that LLM's will not be revenue generators will also sink in soon. The technology will become to commoditized as many companies enter the market.

The only hurdle with LLM's is ability to scrape data, and many more companies are entering that field, so much so that it is hurting the infrastructure of major websites that host data.

Hopefully this crash will also contain the LLM crash or else we will also have an LLM fueled crash in the future. Companies like OpenAI will be worthless in 2030, it is only whether it happens this year or in 2-5 years.

AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%

Automated AI bots seeking training data threaten Wikipedia project stability, foundation says.

arstechnica.com

That’s not where the big money in AI is going to be IMHO. I agree on OpenAI, with one caveat. Think Google. Web search isn’t rocket science and there were plenty of companies who did it but Google dominated it in the end. No idea on ChapGPT in the end, but “searching” will still be there aided by AI. That said, Google makes its money on advertising due to owning content (YouTube) and searching. There will be one or maybe a couple of ChatGPT type winners for the new search/assistant (like writing code) but Google might even end up one of those winners.

Anyway, if you think LLM will crash and not be profitable, think about Google and other companies with massive advertising revenue. AI will absolutely be around a lot longer and make massive amounts of money for companies that can save their customers money.

AI will save companies money, but not so much by using LLM's, more in forecasting products, supply chain, monitoring safety on factory floors, etc. These are sector's that the major LLM's aren't even competing in and most of this development is done in house in fortune 500 companies.

Companies are really struggling to make any revenue with LLM's and i think that will continue. Already the space is crowded and more companies are entering as they see how easy it is. I think LLM's will be just another application like email or word processing.

I think it is a massive bubble waiting to burst.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Berkshire cracks me up. Its two largest holdings Apple and American Express are down 9% each but the fund is basically flat for the day.

Pretty crazy. Been having this exact discussion with my son who is heavily invested in them percentage wise.

Just a flight to safety, kind of like Coke. I mean Coke now has the same forward PE as Microsoft. Berkshire, being a closed fund, is hard to value but by most metrics it’s a good 15-20% higher than it should be but that’s most value right now imo.

 

[Schmeabs]

A fair amount of stocks on my screen are green right now.
PG
UNH
MCD
MO
MRK
PEP
KO
LMT
DEO
COST
VZ
EXC
ABT
All bond ETFS

 

[Ridgeback]

Stagflation anyone?

Bump

Inflation
Rising unemployment
Wealth destruction

Bad time to lose your job when your savings just took a 20% dump in 3 months.

Cool stuff.

Self destructive behavior?

Market manipulation?

I'm out

Yes to both. I totally understand being out right now. The question is, when do you get back in. DCA of course, but timing isn't easy under the best of conditions.

 

[Redwes25]

Ok, this is getting silly. What does TTD have to do with tariffs? Down 10%. Amazon down 8% even though most of its profits come from non-tariff impacts. Walmart gets a sizable chunk of its profits from products from China and other countries. It’s got a much higher PE, slower growth and more China/Tariff impacts to actual profits and it’s barely down. Heck, Apple gets almost everything from China and it’s down less than Amazon and pricier for less growth.

Not sure how Amazon with AWS driving it, is lumped into a Nike like bucket.

Going to be a long wait before we are out of this mess but it’s crazy. Costco is somehow green today.

We run a 100 billion services surplus with the EU. A lot of that goes to big tech. I think people are worried that is in the cross hairs as that is how the EU can retailate and hurt us given we have such large trade deficits with the EU.

This is primarily just large tech/pharma companies hiding profits in Ireland.

That is not the case - for example Googles revenue is about 30% in EMEA. That is not just IP profits from Ireland. Pharma does push a bunch of IP into Ireland as well as Microsoft.

 

[Nugget]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

Are you DCA'ing? I bought at 20 and 19. Ready to DCA when it hits 18's.

Dang - I got greedy here - had I set my gain for 5% like the other day, instead of 10%, it looks like it may have just hit. I will DCA at 18 but not 19. This market is in bad shape.

Out at 20.88. Less than my goal but no way I’m holding over the weekend

funded half my Roth this morning - SOXL at 19.00

This SOXL train is fun ain't it?

I took today off. An entry point at 18.05 is tempting, but I think we'll see 14/15 later this week.

I’m buying my other half at $7.

Hoping SOXL doesn't hit this today.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just gonna keep buying. Why not. I'm young-ish

I'm doing the same, but the "why not" case is much stronger today than in the past. Countries with extremely poor economic policies can decline and stagnate for decades.

Tariffs, blatant corruption, and wealth redistribution to lower marginal propensity spenders are all disastrous policies for building the long term wealth of a nation. This stuff never works.

IMO cooler heads will prevail. It will become hard to fill a foursome when your buddies are broke.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index down to 9……..9 lol

 

[ghostguy123]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

Are you DCA'ing? I bought at 20 and 19. Ready to DCA when it hits 18's.

Dang - I got greedy here - had I set my gain for 5% like the other day, instead of 10%, it looks like it may have just hit. I will DCA at 18 but not 19. This market is in bad shape.

Out at 20.88. Less than my goal but no way I’m holding over the weekend

funded half my Roth this morning - SOXL at 19.00

This SOXL train is fun ain't it?

I took today off. An entry point at 18.05 is tempting, but I think we'll see 14/15 later this week.

I’m buying my other half at $7.

Hoping SOXL doesn't hit this today.

Couple more 25% rips and we're there

 

[ghostguy123]

Fear and Greed index down to 9……..9 lol

So, I don't know much about this. What exactly is this indicating, and more importantly does it mean I should buy or sell? Lol.

If only TVIX still existed right

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyone have an opinion if these real estate companies will start dumping homes? Opendoor has had a home on the market across the street that they bought for $490, prices at $525, and now dropped to $447. It's been almost 9 months. You think they might take an offer of $375 to clear it off the books?

 

[BassNBrew]

Guess I'll pass this one on to the kids....

Playgon Games
price per share$0.0093

+$0.0017 (22.37%)
Refresh Quote
Bid
0.0074 x 50000
Ask
0.0133 x 60000
Volume
0

 

[lsutigers]

Fear and Greed index down to 9……..9 lol

Thanks for this. This was new to me. #knowledgeispower

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fear and Greed index down to 9……..9 lol

So, I don't know much about this. What exactly is this indicating, and more importantly does it mean I should buy or sell? Lol.

If only TVIX still existed right

Kind of like the Vix but measures several investor emotion type indicators. When it gets super low it typically indicates investors are panicking and at least a temporary bottom is close.

 

[Nugget]

Waiting for the next step down when the recipricol tariffs are announced by the other 180 countries.

I'm scared of the next steps in the lowering of production - Stellantis announced quicker than I would have anticipated.

 

[Ilov80s]

Just gonna keep buying. Why not. I'm young-ish

I'm doing the same, but the "why not" case is much stronger today than in the past. Countries with extremely poor economic policies can decline and stagnate for decades.

Tariffs, blatant corruption, and wealth redistribution to lower marginal propensity spenders are all disastrous policies for building the long term wealth of a nation. This stuff never works.

IMO cooler heads will prevail. It will become hard to fill a foursome when your buddies are broke.

That seems to imply there is some kind of rational philosophy here that is meant to benefit the whole. Are we sure that's the case? Rhetorical question- don't answer.

 

[fantasy stud]

When is the crash from the tarriff news happpening. my 15 year old wants me to add some more voo shares to his portfolio. I was hoping to buy under $500.

Since about mid-January.

Guess we just had to wait a day. Got in at $497. I'm happy with that even if it goes lower.

 

[culdeus]

Just gonna keep buying. Why not. I'm young-ish

I'm doing the same, but the "why not" case is much stronger today than in the past. Countries with extremely poor economic policies can decline and stagnate for decades.

Tariffs, blatant corruption, and wealth redistribution to lower marginal propensity spenders are all disastrous policies for building the long term wealth of a nation. This stuff never works.

IMO cooler heads will prevail. It will become hard to fill a foursome when your buddies are broke.

That seems to imply there is some kind of rational philosophy here that is meant to benefit the whole. Are we sure that's the case? Rhetorical question- don't answer.

Benefit the whole. lol

 

[culdeus]

Russia and North Korea didn't get hit with tarrifs. Because of course not.

 

[dancingbones]

Waiting for the next step down when the recipricol tariffs are announced by the other 180 countries.

I'm scared of the next steps in the lowering of production - Stellantis announced quicker than I would have anticipated.

Or the leg down after that when U.S. escalates tariffs on those who announce retaliatory measures.

 

[General Malaise]

Thank the gods for the tin miner in the middle of an actual war zone. It's only down 2%.

Don't forget our favorite Antimony stock!

 

[General Malaise]

Guess I'll pass this one on to the kids....

Playgon Games
price per share$0.0093

+$0.0017 (22.37%)
Refresh Quote
Bid
0.0074 x 50000
Ask
0.0133 x 60000
Volume
0

Tax asset.

 

[Sand]

Russia and North Korea didn't get hit with tarrifs. Because of course not.

They're sanctioned, so there is no trade to put a tariff on. Same with Venezuela, I believe.

-------

I said screw it and bought some NVDA at 103. I'll check it in a year.

 

[NajehHejan]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

Are you DCA'ing? I bought at 20 and 19. Ready to DCA when it hits 18's.

Dang - I got greedy here - had I set my gain for 5% like the other day, instead of 10%, it looks like it may have just hit. I will DCA at 18 but not 19. This market is in bad shape.

Out at 20.88. Less than my goal but no way I’m holding over the weekend

funded half my Roth this morning - SOXL at 19.00

This SOXL train is fun ain't it?

I took today off. An entry point at 18.05 is tempting, but I think we'll see 14/15 later this week.

I’m buying my other half at $7.

Hoping SOXL doesn't hit this today.

Couple more 25% rips and we're there

In SOXL at $12.13

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Russia and North Korea didn't get hit with tarrifs. Because of course not.

They're sanctioned, so there is no trade to put a tariff on. Same with Venezuela, I believe.

-------

I said screw it and bought some NVDA at 103. I'll check it in a year.

We imported $3.5B in goods from Russia last year.

 

[General Malaise]

Russia and North Korea didn't get hit with tarrifs. Because of course not.

They're sanctioned, so there is no trade to put a tariff on. Same with Venezuela, I believe.

-------

I said screw it and bought some NVDA at 103. I'll check it in a year.

We imported $3.5B in goods from Russia last year.

It's where we get our nuclear fuel.....kinda have to as they are kings in the enrichment game. We just don't like to talk about it.

 

[The Z Machine]

At least my LMT shares are going up