Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

[eighsse2]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

 

[(HULK)]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

Not even close. They're being described as such by the administration however, that is easily checked and proven false.

The tariffs are based on each nation's trade deficit with us as a factor of total trade between the two companies. Then divide by 2 and round. That's what they are.

 

[(HULK)]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

Um, no. Not even close.

Less than matching?

Much much higher than matching.

 

[General Malaise]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

Rats. Well....you'll find it with an easy Google search....it's all over the socials too.

 

[Desert_Power]

Liberation day for about 35 boxes of ziti I was keeping in money markets. Even bought a little bit of some random Todem name, always a fun day for that.

 

[eighsse2]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

Rats. Well....you'll find it with an easy Google search....it's all over the socials too.

Found an AP article about it, but it was over my head. Not sure what most of the terminology even means. So I'll take your word for it that the rates are not the same as the other countries impose on us. Hopefully it works out in the end.

 

[pecorino]

In my mind, the best case scenario and a potential catalyst includes 1) countries that make concessions to reduce their tariffs in exchange for us reducing ours or 2) this administration using tariffs as a threat and cutting deals for something we want in exchange for relaxing these tariffs or 3) our administration losing their conviction and easing tariffs with no concessions. None of those will take a huge amount of time.

No part of me believes that big companies are thinking that they're going to spend 3 - 5 years and billions of dollars to create new plants in the US. Their strategy should be to hang tight and see what happens in a few months or a year. Heck, if history holds there will be an election in 2028 so tariffs could go bye-bye before companies get these plants built. Why would they make that long term investment?

 

[stbugs]

The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is scheduled to open in spring 2028.....that's ONE massive building in a city cashed up to build it. But it's a stadium, it's not a foundry or an auto plant or a rare earth processing facility. Walk me through how we're going to just build everything we need in short order to replace the manufacturing our voracious consumer appetites have demanded. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

It's not just that. It's great to say we need manufacturing to come back to the US, but that's also inflationary. Nobody is building a low cost anything here. So if a Chevy is suddenly built 100% in country, that Chevy is going to cost more than it did when it was built in <virtually anywhere else>. And it's still going to be a ####tier car than the corresponding Honda/Toyota.

Actually, not sure I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d think a brand new factory would be far more automated now than one that moved to Mexico 10-20 years ago to keep labor costs down. We are in a much different environment in terms of automation/AI. I don’t know if it will work but maybe now is the perfect time for it to move back if you can automate the **** out of it and thus remove the that huge labor cost component, which would keep the skilled labor jobs here and keep the corporate taxes here. There’s a lot of cars still manufactured in the US that aren’t Chrysler LeBarrons.

 

[stbugs]

So who’s going to squint and look at their returns tonight?

I already did earlier in the day and I got smoked. I’ve got a lot of cash but I’m still holding for now. If I sell anything, I would probably invest that in say VRT rather than park it since I’d feel better than selling low as I’d just be swapping to something I like better. The cash I already built up was from selling high.

 

[Capella]

So what do we call this? The greater depression? Greatest depression? 2 great 2 depression? Great Depression 2: The Depressioning?

 

[McBokonon]

So what do we call this? The greater depression? Greatest depression? 2 great 2 depression? Great Depression 2: The Depressioning?

Great Depression 2: Good Golly, Smoot-Hawley

 

[Buckna]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

May be time for us to all to head to Zihuatanejo and start refinishing a boat on the beach!

 

[fruity pebbles]

So who’s going to squint and look at their returns tonight?

I already did earlier in the day and I got smoked. I’ve got a lot of cash but I’m still holding for now. If I sell anything, I would probably invest that in say VRT rather than park it since I’d feel better than selling low as I’d just be swapping to something I like better. The cash I already built up was from selling high.

Yeah I was at roughly 60% cash, I’ve since bought mainly Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and the SMH etf starting about two weeks ago and DCA’d in increments on the way down. Now 40% cash and this drop still hurts.

 

[BassNBrew]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

Nope, not at all. The tariffs are based on 1/2 of the trade balance percentage.

We buy $100 of good wine from Italy
They buy $30 of California swill from US.

That's a $70 deficit which is being called a tariff on the US for some reason.

$70 / $100 = 70%

We are being nice so we divide this by 2 to come up with a 35% tariff on wine purchased from Italy moving forward.

 

[culdeus]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

They do not but feel like this is all getting too political so I am backing away.

Yeah I probably shouldn't have even said that actually.

If we dont understand tariff impacts, how can we effectively invest? I know we're approaching lines, but it is valid conversation wrt this thread's purpose. I think it is generally criticism that gets us in trouble.

Yeah, this is not really a political topic. Even though the people doing it are.

If the end goal here is to onshore manufacturing in the US, this is in no way going to accomplish that in the short term. Most MFG jobs that have been added in the US in recent history are people helping robots do jobs. Not smacking a hammer on some dishwasher.

MFG jobs even worldwide are on the decline now. Factory workers are being replaced by robots everywhere. It is far too late to turn that tide back.

 

[BassNBrew]

The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is scheduled to open in spring 2028.....that's ONE massive building in a city cashed up to build it. But it's a stadium, it's not a foundry or an auto plant or a rare earth processing facility. Walk me through how we're going to just build everything we need in short order to replace the manufacturing our voracious consumer appetites have demanded. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

It's not just that. It's great to say we need manufacturing to come back to the US, but that's also inflationary. Nobody is building a low cost anything here. So if a Chevy is suddenly built 100% in country, that Chevy is going to cost more than it did when it was built in <virtually anywhere else>. And it's still going to be a ####tier car than the corresponding Honda/Toyota.

Actually, not sure I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d think a brand new factory would be far more automated now than one that moved to Mexico 10-20 years ago to keep labor costs down. We are in a much different environment in terms of automation/AI. I don’t know if it will work but maybe now is the perfect time for it to move back if you can automate the **** out of it and thus remove the that huge labor cost component, which would keep the skilled labor jobs here and keep the corporate taxes here. There’s a lot of cars still manufactured in the US that aren’t Chrysler LeBarrons.

Total automation is a push with slave labor. No point in investing the money. The equipment is obsolete in years, the slaves are more experienced.

 

[Witz]

So what do we call this? The greater depression? Greatest depression? 2 great 2 depression? Great Depression 2: The Depressioning?

Great Depression 2: Good Golly, Smoot-Hawley

Great Depression 2: Tariff Boogaloo

 

[BassNBrew]

Shoe factory. Workers. Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam Stock Photo - Alamy

Download this stock image: Shoe factory. Workers. Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam. - PX5PXA from Alamy's library of millions of high resolution stock photos, illustrations and vectors.

www.alamy.com

 

[Runkle]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

https://archive.ph/ZunFj

 

[QuizGuy66]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

https://archive.ph/ZunFj

Surprised by this.

I figured they would have used the dice roller that we do for FBG drafts

-QG

 

[General Malaise]

The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is scheduled to open in spring 2028.....that's ONE massive building in a city cashed up to build it. But it's a stadium, it's not a foundry or an auto plant or a rare earth processing facility. Walk me through how we're going to just build everything we need in short order to replace the manufacturing our voracious consumer appetites have demanded. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

It's not just that. It's great to say we need manufacturing to come back to the US, but that's also inflationary. Nobody is building a low cost anything here. So if a Chevy is suddenly built 100% in country, that Chevy is going to cost more than it did when it was built in <virtually anywhere else>. And it's still going to be a ####tier car than the corresponding Honda/Toyota.

Actually, not sure I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d think a brand new factory would be far more automated now than one that moved to Mexico 10-20 years ago to keep labor costs down. We are in a much different environment in terms of automation/AI. I don’t know if it will work but maybe now is the perfect time for it to move back if you can automate the **** out of it and thus remove the that huge labor cost component, which would keep the skilled labor jobs here and keep the corporate taxes here. There’s a lot of cars still manufactured in the US that aren’t Chrysler LeBarrons.

And where are these new cars getting their computer chips? Rare earth element motors and magnets? Where are the EVs getting their cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium?

Do you recall the chip shortage from just a few years ago?

 

[Buckna]

So yeah, down 5% overall today across all my retirement accounts. Not selling other than looking at some more defensive plays to sell and reallocate to Tech like some of you others mentioned

 

[General Malaise]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

You haven't seen how they came up with these tariffs? You should read this:

Client Challenge

Paywalled.

https://archive.ph/ZunFj

Thanks, this was what I tried and failed to post as a link. Appreciate it.

 

[Ridgeback]

Can't wait to start eating US grown bananas! That and a nice cup of Kansas Coffee!

Remember to say thank you!

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

Nope, not at all. The tariffs are based on 1/2 of the trade balance percentage.

We buy $100 of good wine from Italy
They buy $30 of California swill from US.

That's a $70 deficit which is being called a tariff on the US for some reason.

$70 / $100 = 70%

We are being nice so we divide this by 2 to come up with a 35% tariff on wine purchased from Italy moving forward.

It’s actually even worse than that because they only used trade deficits in GOODS, they ignored services, where the US runs huge surpluses against a lot of countries.

There’s nothing that someone like Bangladesh or Lesotho can really do, they’re poor countries, they just can’t afford US goods at US prices to close that trade deficit. So I guess we pay ginormous markups on their trade goods (or they stop selling to us entirely).

And this isn’t being political, I just don’t like lazy math.

 

[Sand]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

 

[General Malaise]

No politics. I genuinely and emphatically hope this administration proves all the naysayers wrong, and this turns out to be some kind of next level economic move nobody can comprehend right now. I hope we're all shocked and mocked for doubting and end up drinking all the American Champagne from American gold-plated cis-Statue of Liberty boobs with no debt and no income taxes.

I hope.

I really don't understand what is so controversial about simply matching the rates that other countries impose on the US. I think that's what the new tariffs are, right, just matching?

Nope, not at all. The tariffs are based on 1/2 of the trade balance percentage.

We buy $100 of good wine from Italy
They buy $30 of California swill from US.

That's a $70 deficit which is being called a tariff on the US for some reason.

$70 / $100 = 70%

We are being nice so we divide this by 2 to come up with a 35% tariff on wine purchased from Italy moving forward.

It’s actually even worse than that because they only used trade deficits in GOODS, they ignored services, where the US runs huge surpluses against a lot of countries.

There’s nothing that someone like Bangladesh or Lesotho can really do, they’re poor countries, they just can’t afford US goods at US prices to close that trade deficit. So I guess we pay ginormous markups on their trade goods (or they stop selling to us entirely).

And this isn’t being political, I just don’t like lazy math.

This is a fantastic post.

 

[General Malaise]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Yeah, but WHEN did he say this? This afternoon?

Broheim, even the Oracle of Omaha couldn't see this gong show coming. He probably uttered these words when Nixon was in office. Right?

 

[culdeus]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

This assume rational actions, or people operating in our best interests. Which neither of these seem super true right now. It isn't clear that our govt. wants to maintain the US as the world reserve currency, or our ability to issue risk free notes getting 4% or whatever they are going for these days.

 

[General Malaise]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Yeah, but WHEN did he say this? This afternoon?

Broheim, even the Oracle of Omaha couldn't see this gong show coming. He probably uttered these words when Nixon was in office. Right?

NM it's a poem from Rudyard Kipling who died back in 1938 back when people in charge could do math.

 

[Stoneworker]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

S&P 5460 (10% decline from where I moved my $$ to cash) was my trigger I gave myself go start getting back into the market.

Currently 100% cash in my 401K & 95% 401K/ROTH

My plan to re-enter the market:
20% @ 5460 (10% decline)
20% @ 5157 (15% decline)
20% @ 4854 (20% decline)
20% @ 4551 (25% decline)
20% @ 4248 (30% decline)

Today we crossed the 5460 threshold so I'm plowing 20% back into the S&P index fund.

Following the plan, but it sure feels like a move that will lose some $$ for me (at least short term). Attempting to learn some investing discipline here and not act 100% on gut.

I plowed a whole bunch of cash into the NASDAQ when it declined 20% in 2000. What could go wrong? It then went on to drop a full 78%.

Took 12 years to get that money back.

That's when I learned that valuation is not a great gauge for market entry and began studying technicals

No disrespect intended

 

[eighsse2]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Yeah, but WHEN did he say this? This afternoon?

Broheim, even the Oracle of Omaha couldn't see this gong show coming. He probably uttered these words when Nixon was in office. Right?

Yeah, the market definitely hasn't recovered completely (and far, far beyond) from anything wayyy worse than these losses, anytime in the last five years.

 

[eighsse2]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Yeah, but WHEN did he say this? This afternoon?

Broheim, even the Oracle of Omaha couldn't see this gong show coming. He probably uttered these words when Nixon was in office. Right?

Yeah, the market definitely hasn't recovered completely (and far, far beyond) from anything wayyy worse than these losses, anytime in the last five years.

If you want to compare the markets reaction to a global pandemic to what is happening today, that's fine. You're entitled to believe and invest however you want but when you waltz in here with a blatant misunderstanding of how these tariffs were derived and then dispense market advice immediately afterwards, forgive me if I scoff at you.

Oh, make no mistake, I have little understanding of this stuff. It's just ironic to imply that Buffett's advice doesn't apply to something "this bad", given what we saw so recently.

 

[djmich]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Yeah, but WHEN did he say this? This afternoon?

Broheim, even the Oracle of Omaha couldn't see this gong show coming. He probably uttered these words when Nixon was in office. Right?

Yeah, the market definitely hasn't recovered completely (and far, far beyond) from anything wayyy worse than these losses, anytime in the last five years.

If you want to compare the markets reaction to a global pandemic to what is happening today, that's fine. You're entitled to believe and invest however you want but when you waltz in here with a blatant misunderstanding of how these tariffs were derived and then dispense market advice immediately afterwards, forgive me if I scoff at you.

Yah, this is the world is ending thread, not the stock market thread.

 

[Schmeabs]

GM don't get this thread locked with your constant political posts

 

[dancingbones]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

S&P 5460 (10% decline from where I moved my $$ to cash) was my trigger I gave myself go start getting back into the market.

Currently 100% cash in my 401K & 95% 401K/ROTH

My plan to re-enter the market:
20% @ 5460 (10% decline)
20% @ 5157 (15% decline)
20% @ 4854 (20% decline)
20% @ 4551 (25% decline)
20% @ 4248 (30% decline)

Today we crossed the 5460 threshold so I'm plowing 20% back into the S&P index fund.

Following the plan, but it sure feels like a move that will lose some $$ for me (at least short term). Attempting to learn some investing discipline here and not act 100% on gut.

I plowed a whole bunch of cash into the NASDAQ when it declined 20% in 2000. What could go wrong? It then went on to drop a full 78%.

Took 12 years to get that money back.

That's when I learned that valuation is not a great gauge for market entry and began studying technicals

No disrespect intended

None taken at all - quite the contrary. I've been a set it & forget it S&P index fund investor for the past 30 years & only purchased my 1st individual stock 3 years ago at age 55.

I have been buying & selling & buying & holding stocks in my ROTH for the past 3 years attempting to learn how to increase my net worth. Paid very little attention in 2000 or 2008 so don't have any "as lived" experience there in making choices to buy or sell - it was all DCA & hold.

As far as I can say, this is all training for making decisions.

I appreciate the feedback

 

[Josh Hines-Ward-Alan-Carr]

GM don't get this thread locked with your constant political posts

Has anyone noticed how everyone gravitates to the two or three threads in the FFA that dare talk about real things happening in the world right now (until they're locked, like you say). Wonder why that is.

 

[dancingbones]

As an aside - to all of you parents out there teaching your kids about investing early on - I tip my cap to you!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Let’s not get this thread shut down. Too valuable.

 

[General Malaise]

Let’s not get this thread shut down. Too valuable.

Call it both ways or don't call it at all.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Let’s not get this thread shut down. Too valuable.

Call it both ways or don't call it at all.

I’m not choosing sides or calling out any one person - I’m speaking generally.

I know some topics make it hard to separate the politics- but as long as it doesn’t get snarky the thread can continue on - and with the market today any news or valued opinion is a benefit.

 

[culdeus]

Apple down 10%. Is that just assuming us consumer are gonna be too broke to buy the latest iPhone?

 

[BassNBrew]

Apple down 10%. Is that just assuming us consumer are gonna be too broke to buy the latest iPhone?

I think a $1900 iphne might be the issue.

 

[Dezbelief]

Apple down 10%. Is that just assuming us consumer are gonna be too broke to buy the latest iPhone?

I think a $1900 iphne might be the issue.

Pfft, people will skip paying rent, utilities and everything else to purchase the latest status symbol.

 

[stbugs]

The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is scheduled to open in spring 2028.....that's ONE massive building in a city cashed up to build it. But it's a stadium, it's not a foundry or an auto plant or a rare earth processing facility. Walk me through how we're going to just build everything we need in short order to replace the manufacturing our voracious consumer appetites have demanded. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

It's not just that. It's great to say we need manufacturing to come back to the US, but that's also inflationary. Nobody is building a low cost anything here. So if a Chevy is suddenly built 100% in country, that Chevy is going to cost more than it did when it was built in <virtually anywhere else>. And it's still going to be a ####tier car than the corresponding Honda/Toyota.

Actually, not sure I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d think a brand new factory would be far more automated now than one that moved to Mexico 10-20 years ago to keep labor costs down. We are in a much different environment in terms of automation/AI. I don’t know if it will work but maybe now is the perfect time for it to move back if you can automate the **** out of it and thus remove the that huge labor cost component, which would keep the skilled labor jobs here and keep the corporate taxes here. There’s a lot of cars still manufactured in the US that aren’t Chrysler LeBarrons.

And where are these new cars getting their computer chips? Rare earth element motors and magnets? Where are the EVs getting their cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium?

Do you recall the chip shortage from just a few years ago?

I’m not sure you even read my post but that’s OK. I was just talking about the assumption that we can’t possibly make good cars and that a new factory in the US would be like the one Michael Keaton ran. How long did it take Tesla to get up and running with volume? Has nothing to do with if I disagree or agree with the tariffs.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is scheduled to open in spring 2028.....that's ONE massive building in a city cashed up to build it. But it's a stadium, it's not a foundry or an auto plant or a rare earth processing facility. Walk me through how we're going to just build everything we need in short order to replace the manufacturing our voracious consumer appetites have demanded. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.

It's not just that. It's great to say we need manufacturing to come back to the US, but that's also inflationary. Nobody is building a low cost anything here. So if a Chevy is suddenly built 100% in country, that Chevy is going to cost more than it did when it was built in <virtually anywhere else>. And it's still going to be a ####tier car than the corresponding Honda/Toyota.

Actually, not sure I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d think a brand new factory would be far more automated now than one that moved to Mexico 10-20 years ago to keep labor costs down. We are in a much different environment in terms of automation/AI. I don’t know if it will work but maybe now is the perfect time for it to move back if you can automate the **** out of it and thus remove the that huge labor cost component, which would keep the skilled labor jobs here and keep the corporate taxes here. There’s a lot of cars still manufactured in the US that aren’t Chrysler LeBarrons.

And where are these new cars getting their computer chips? Rare earth element motors and magnets? Where are the EVs getting their cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium?

Do you recall the chip shortage from just a few years ago?

I’m not sure you even read my post but that’s OK. I was just talking about the assumption that we can’t possibly make good cars and that a new factory in the US would be like the one Michael Keaton ran. How long did it take Tesla to get up and running with volume? Has nothing to do with if I disagree or agree with the tariffs.

I'm not saying we can't make good cars. I'm saying I don't trust brands like Chevy or Ford TO make good cars regardless of where they're made.

Lucid? Sure. Tesla? Meh. Sometimes.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

S&P 5460 (10% decline from where I moved my $$ to cash) was my trigger I gave myself go start getting back into the market.

Currently 100% cash in my 401K & 95% 401K/ROTH

My plan to re-enter the market:
20% @ 5460 (10% decline)
20% @ 5157 (15% decline)
20% @ 4854 (20% decline)
20% @ 4551 (25% decline)
20% @ 4248 (30% decline)

Today we crossed the 5460 threshold so I'm plowing 20% back into the S&P index fund.

Following the plan, but it sure feels like a move that will lose some $$ for me (at least short term). Attempting to learn some investing discipline here and not act 100% on gut.

I plowed a whole bunch of cash into the NASDAQ when it declined 20% in 2000. What could go wrong? It then went on to drop a full 78%.

Took 12 years to get that money back.

That's when I learned that valuation is not a great gauge for market entry and began studying technicals

No disrespect intended

Nasdaq was up 6x in the previous 5 years back then, it's 3x this time around. Valuation was a perfect strategy back then and today.

 

[Josh Hines-Ward-Alan-Carr]

With regards to automobiles, isn't BYD the massive elephant in the room? By most accounts, they're at least on par with Tesla and about 40% less to buy (where they are allowed to compete, sans tariffs)?

They're tariffed 100% in USA and Canada, I believe (taking over in Mexico).

I don't know how much we can even get into why it's made/sold for the price it is or why it's tariffed so heavily without getting into the political side but... it's probably coming at some point.

 

[BassNBrew]

Buffett's advice:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

Bassnbrew's advice:

Buy Amazon when it's stupid cheap.

 

[BassNBrew]

With regards to automobiles, isn't BYD the massive elephant in the room? By most accounts, they're at least on par with Tesla and about 40% less to buy (where they are allowed to compete, sans tariffs)?

They're tariffed 100% in USA and Canada, I believe (taking over in Mexico).

I don't know how much we can even get into why it's made/sold for the price it is or why it's tariffed so heavily without getting into the political side but... it's probably coming at some point.

It's one thing to buy furniture and toys from China, it's quite another to by autos that could be shut off at anytime from the other side of the world.

The Seal is probably a decent comp to a Tesla. That 45k euros or 54k dollars.