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With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
So, HYSA have the same price movement as bonds? I guess that makes a certain amount of sense. My point is I have no problem leaving my cash in a vehicle that earns 4-5% w/out any risk. Do treasuries get murdered too?
 
I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
i’m not a 32nd level black belt investor and my investing intellect is not as advanced as others but, i’ve been pretty happy hiding large amounts of cash in a vanguard bond fund. when the NAV goes up, you advance your principal, yield lowers and less monthly dividend. but the reverse occurs as well. it gets you decently insulated IMO when the market reacts like this.
 
Any thought to the fact that the Fed is about to refinance about 2 trillion of debt ...
Would it be beneficial if interest rates were down? Does a crashing market help them with this in any way?
Rates have not moved a whole lot.
 
I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.
i was in your boat on tsla a while ago and i sold. i bought at around $140 i think. for me, i couldn’t buy enough to make it worth my while, especially without a dividend. at around $245 the risk that it goes down to $175 far outweighs the chance it exceeds $345 IMO. i stopped being being a tsla fan when musk grabbed X and every time he opened his mouth it would gyrate the stock. i like the electric charging grid and monopoly chance, but i hate that it’s really a car company that will likely miss on deliveries again.
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
So, HYSA have the same price movement as bonds? I guess that makes a certain amount of sense. My point is I have no problem leaving my cash in a vehicle that earns 4-5% w/out any risk. Do treasuries get murdered too?
No, treasures are the best place to be in a recession. HYSA is a high yield bonds ETF right? In 2008, high yield bonds were down 26%. TLT, a long duration Treasury ETF was up 33%. I would just recommend a safer bond ETF for my cash alternatives like a BSV or SCHO
 
I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.
I brought this up in the EV thread and was silenced quickly but its even more relevant in here
On one hand how could TSLA get much cheaper going from 480 start of the year to like 240?
On the other, he's a hated man right now by more than a few and will be for a long time no matter when he steps away from the White House

And that's about as far as I can take that without crossing the line
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
So, HYSA have the same price movement as bonds? I guess that makes a certain amount of sense. My point is I have no problem leaving my cash in a vehicle that earns 4-5% w/out any risk. Do treasuries get murdered too?
No, treasures are the best place to be in a recession. HYSA is a high yield bonds ETF right? In 2008, high yield bonds were down 26%. TLT, a long duration Treasury ETF was up 33%. I would just recommend a safer bond ETF for my cash alternatives like a BSV or SCHO
HYSA being High Yield Savings Accounts. I have 80% of my investments in HYSA, GBIL, or treasuries, at the moment. I've missed tremendous upside the past 10 years. I will DCA back into something similar to Todem's master list, but not looking to catch the bottom. I'd rather DCA once we see the momentum shift back up. I think that will be awhile.
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
So, HYSA have the same price movement as bonds? I guess that makes a certain amount of sense. My point is I have no problem leaving my cash in a vehicle that earns 4-5% w/out any risk. Do treasuries get murdered too?
No, treasures are the best place to be in a recession. HYSA is a high yield bonds ETF right? In 2008, high yield bonds were down 26%. TLT, a long duration Treasury ETF was up 33%. I would just recommend a safer bond ETF for my cash alternatives like a BSV or SCHO
HYSA being High Yield Savings Accounts. I have 80% of my investments in HYSA, GBIL, or treasuries, at the moment. I've missed tremendous upside the past 10 years. I will DCA back into something similar to Todem's master list, but not looking to catch the bottom. I'd rather DCA once we see the momentum shift back up. I think that will be awhile.
OK sorry misunderstood it for the high yield ETF HYSA. You are good!
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.
Worst case scenario where tariffs stay elevated long term and we do go into a recession high yield bonds is not want to have my "safe" money as they get murdered in recessions.
So, HYSA have the same price movement as bonds? I guess that makes a certain amount of sense. My point is I have no problem leaving my cash in a vehicle that earns 4-5% w/out any risk. Do treasuries get murdered too?
No, treasures are the best place to be in a recession. HYSA is a high yield bonds ETF right? In 2008, high yield bonds were down 26%. TLT, a long duration Treasury ETF was up 33%. I would just recommend a safer bond ETF for my cash alternatives like a BSV or SCHO
Not a ticker. HYSA is High Yield Savings Accounts. Think money markets or 30 day treasuries.
 
Can't wait to hear about stuff "on sale" today though.
I mean if you’re investing for the long term, it is. If you think this is an end of the world economy thing I guess pull the rip cord. I’ll be buying more amz and nvda.
To each their own, I just dont think today is the bottom. I feel like there is a lot more hurt to come before this works itself out. Ill be buying again but I sold a lot to cash and am prepared to wait a while, maybe even through the end of this presidential term.
 
Powell more focused on inflation, as he should be during a massive price increase. He's not coming to bail this market out.
His part is going to be coming sooner rather than later. Fortunately, he has some interest rates to play with, but I don't think they will be enough.
what's .5% interest rates compared to 10%+ tariff rate?
In terms of inflation? Not sure what you're asking.
 
Can't wait to hear about stuff "on sale" today though.
I mean if you’re investing for the long term, it is. If you think this is an end of the world economy thing I guess pull the rip cord. I’ll be buying more amz and nvda.
To each their own, I just dont think today is the bottom. I feel like there is a lot more hurt to come before this works itself out. Ill be buying again but I sold a lot to cash and am prepared to wait a while, maybe even through the end of this presidential term.
The counter argument would be that, since this is all self-made, it could largely go away tomorrow if someone decided.
 
I am lucky (I guess) I am 15 years from retirement. Nonetheless I am still pissed that I saw this coming and didn’t get more conservative when I had the chance, moved about 25% out of equities back in Jan.
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.
 
With HYSA as an option, not sure why anyone wouldn't just park it there for the short term until things shake out. We just broke through another major support level on the S&P. Lookout below.

Because we heard similar things during the pandemic crash. Several people here dumped it all and parked it in cash after the initial down terms less than a year later we were at record highs, and they missed out on all those gains. Good luck to those of you playing with fire, I hope you time the bottom. I am not willing to risk having to work 3 to 4 more years to potentially save working one more year.
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.
 
I am lucky (I guess) I am 15 years from retirement. Nonetheless I am still pissed that I saw this coming and didn’t get more conservative when I had the chance, moved about 25% out of equities back in Jan.

Don’t beat yourself up. Consider what you did to win even the best at investing never come close to timing the tops or bottoms.
 
I am lucky (I guess) I am 15 years from retirement. Nonetheless I am still pissed that I saw this coming and didn’t get more conservative when I had the chance, moved about 25% out of equities back in Jan.
Don’t beat yourself up. Nothing wrong with 25% to go shopping on days like today.
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.

Two questions for you

Number one, is Europe really going to mess with us with Russia knocking on their door?

Number two, do we even need Canadian oil? Seems like the Sadies have plenty and I suspect our oil companies wouldn’t mind the price going up anyway.
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.

Two questions for you

Number one, is Europe really going to mess with us with Russia knocking on their door?

Number two, do we even need Canadian oil? Seems like the Sadies have plenty and I suspect our oil companies wouldn’t mind the price going up anyway.
Yes

Our cars run on Canadian oil. The oil we have is not suitable for it.
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

NHL boycott also?
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
 
Can't wait to hear about stuff "on sale" today though.
I mean if you’re investing for the long term, it is. If you think this is an end of the world economy thing I guess pull the rip cord. I’ll be buying more amz and nvda.
To each their own, I just dont think today is the bottom. I feel like there is a lot more hurt to come before this works itself out. Ill be buying again but I sold a lot to cash and am prepared to wait a while, maybe even through the end of this presidential term.
Maybe, but staying in the market has reaped many rewards for me and I expect it will again. I got through March 2020 which was painful and I’ll get through this. I buy tech stocks when they are at a good price and hold them long term and I’m not changing now or likely ever.
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.

Two questions for you

Number one, is Europe really going to mess with us with Russia knocking on their door?

Number two, do we even need Canadian oil? Seems like the Sadies have plenty and I suspect our oil companies wouldn’t mind the price going up anyway.
Yes

Our cars run on Canadian oil. The oil we have is not suitable for it.

Interesting, I did not know that. Thank you for sharing. Fortunately, my car doesn’t use any oil
 
Will one of you guys smarter than me advise on if VTEB makes sense in the highest tax bracket vs just park it in Vanguard Cash Plus at 3.65%?
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
Cross border traffic is down double digits and flights more than that.

If I was a US producer of a discretionary product that relied on exports I would be very worried.
 
I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.
I brought this up in the EV thread and was silenced quickly but its even more relevant in here
On one hand how could TSLA get much cheaper going from 480 start of the year to like 240?
On the other, he's a hated man right now by more than a few and will be for a long time no matter when he steps away from the White House

And that's about as far as I can take that without crossing the line
Good points. I think I’ll take my profit and spread it around other Mag7, VTI, and VTV. Thanks GB.
 
I feel bad for people that just retired or planned on retiring over the next few months. Talk about anxiety.

My company offered a large round of early retirements at the end of last year, today is the final day for most of those folks. I sure hope they diversified the last few months. :unsure:
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.

Wait until we run out of helium.....
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.

NHL boycott also?
Let’s hope not. I haven’t been this excited for the playoffs in years.
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
I will see your reduction and tourism and raise you a bunch of keyed Teslas
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
I will see your reduction and tourism and raise you a bunch of keyed Teslas
Buy stock in auto paint shop??

So are we gonna see an even bigger selloff before close? People scared of the weekend?
 
Worst case. Europe decides to hammer tech by implementing broad privacy restrictions and regulations. They could also add surcharges to banking fintech and similar crippling those sectors.

Super black swan is Canada stops sending us oil.

Two questions for you

Number one, is Europe really going to mess with us with Russia knocking on their door?

Number two, do we even need Canadian oil? Seems like the Sadies have plenty and I suspect our oil companies wouldn’t mind the price going up anyway.
Yes

Our cars run on Canadian oil. The oil we have is not suitable for it.
I thought it was more like our refineries aren't set up for it.
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.
My concern is the US response to tariff reciprocity. Do we see the US increase tariffs against China next week because they responded? Are foreign countries going to invest in US treasuries, especially if rates go lower? I don't see a stop to the spiral yet.
 
I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
My partner and I both work as consultants for nonprofits, local governments, utilities, etc.. She just talked with a CEO for one of her clients who had a conversation with someone who runs a local events hall here - think of a place where you'll hold expos, conferences, etc. This is normally their busiest season due to Canadian and Mexican organizations coming here for their events, and this quarter they are at a literal zero.
 
This is just insanity -- I've been a perma-bull since 2008 (and even before), was setting myself up for nice early retirement, and now I'm not eve sure what is going to be left in a few years.

I've gone nearly 100% cash and going to wait for some level of sanity to return before getting back in. I do want to find some investments that might work going forward, some ideas I have are investing in more international/European markets, but there would obviously still be risks there pending a world wide recession. I want to buy some TSDD (double leveraged tesla short), maybe some gold or other commodities to go along with money market accounts? Any ideas to build a very defensive portfolio appreciated, never in my life thought it would be like this.

Even if we try to reverse course, long-term permanent damage has been done. Our long-term trading partners and allies no longer trust us, and are even boycotting us -- and those behaviors aren't going to change.
 
This thread took an incredibly bizarre turn this morning … anyhoo. A couple of thoughts …

1. Don’t underestimate the anti-American perspective coming across the globe that has already taken hold in Canada. Aside from not buying American products and cancelling trips down south, people are also cancelling subscriptions to things like Netflix and Amazon as well. This could extend to other countries with these global tariffs, which could impact stock value.

2. I suspect we will see yo-yoing the next few weeks/months. Various countries stating their reciprocal tariffs, rumours of US backing down on tariffs, rumours of US increasing tariffs, etc. Volatility and uncertainty should continue in the short term IMO.


I will be counting the Canadian license plates I see in town this weekend. My guess it will be like any other weekend. A plethora of Canadian plates.
I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
I will see your reduction and tourism and raise you a bunch of keyed Teslas
Buy stock in auto paint shop??

So are we gonna see an even bigger selloff before close? People scared of the weekend?

I’m not saying it’s zero but there have already been multiple articles and statements from Governors and Senators from border states saying the same thing about the drastic reduction already seen in tourism.
My partner and I both work as consultants for nonprofits, local governments, utilities, etc.. She just talked with a CEO for one of her clients who had a conversation with someone who runs a local events hall here - think of a place where you'll hold expos, conferences, etc. This is normally their busiest season due to Canadian and Mexican organizations coming here for their events, and this quarter they are at a literal zero.

I see this happening with other conferences and festivals as well I know with festivals it has just become too expensive to put these things on. Companies have cheaper ways to spread their brand name and reach consumers.
 
I figure I’ll continue to average into my current holdings with the sale.

What are we thinking on TSLA, sale price or avoid due to political nature now? Still have a nice gain I could take.
I brought this up in the EV thread and was silenced quickly but its even more relevant in here
On one hand how could TSLA get much cheaper going from 480 start of the year to like 240?
On the other, he's a hated man right now by more than a few and will be for a long time no matter when he steps away from the White House

And that's about as far as I can take that without crossing the line

"Less expensive" is the term here, because it's still not anything resembling cheap.

That said it rarely moves on fundamentals, so when sentiment shifts I'm sure it will run. But it is very sentiment driven.
 

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