Stock Thread (54 Viewers)

[culdeus]

Any thoughts on buying SVIX or getting some other short exposure to the VIX? Seems like it's inevitable that it drops back into the 20s within a year every time it's ever been over 40 (although it has occasionally spiked way higher first). Basically a bet on things calming down again, even if the market continues to drop and takes a while to work its way back to previous levels.

Prices on those are stupid.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Anyone buy the semis today? Wasn’t really planning on it since they get slammed in a recession but a lot seems to be priced in with SMH down 40% from high to low.

 

[McBokonon]

Anyone buy the semis today? Wasn’t really planning on it since they get slammed in a recession but a lot seems to be priced in with SMH down 40% from high to low.

No, but I started a very very small position in PANW, though.

 

[Ridgeback]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

 

[eighsse2]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

 

[Ridgeback]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

Let's say 5,650 on the S&P. Let's just hope this isn't Smoot-Hawley part deux.

 

[eighsse2]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

Let's say 5,650 on the S&P. Let's just hope this isn't Smoot-Hawley part deux.

Now define "fast" and "rule out". Just joking. But yeah. If it got back to there by week's end I'd be shocked. By month's end, ehhhh, I would be surprised but not blown away.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

I still remember 2008 and a guy I worked with had to stay two additional years after planning his retirement

On a human level these stories suck and are sad. I feel for people who are whip-sawed like this. But it also means they really didn’t have a stable enough situation to retire (relative to their risk preferences). What would happen to this swim coach if the market had tanked in October?

It’s important to at least consider a shock to the stock market and what you would do in reaction……before taking the retirement leap…..

 

[Ridgeback]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

Let's say 5,650 on the S&P. Let's just hope this isn't Smoot-Hawley part deux.

Now define "fast" and "rule out". Just joking. But yeah. If it got back to there by week's end I'd be shocked. By month's end, ehhhh, I would be surprised but not blown away.

Only way we're getting a fast recovery is if the tarrifs go away and that's not going to happen without major concessions that other countries aren't willing to give. That being said, probably shouldn't even banter about it as we can't really express opinions about it.

 

[Bossman]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

Let's say 5,650 on the S&P. Let's just hope this isn't Smoot-Hawley part deux.

Now define "fast" and "rule out". Just joking. But yeah. If it got back to there by week's end I'd be shocked. By month's end, ehhhh, I would be surprised but not blown away.

Holy cow ... Not by weeks end.
I would consider 60-90 days a "fast recovery".
Some are speaking that it will take years to recover... To the point of "now how can I retire".
and my definition of recovery would be numbers close to pre-Liberation Day.

 

[eighsse2]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

I would.

What level would constitute a recovery?

Let's say 5,650 on the S&P. Let's just hope this isn't Smoot-Hawley part deux.

Now define "fast" and "rule out". Just joking. But yeah. If it got back to there by week's end I'd be shocked. By month's end, ehhhh, I would be surprised but not blown away.

Only way we're getting a fast recovery is if the tarrifs go away and that's not going to happen without major concessions that other countries aren't willing to give. That being said, probably shouldn't even banter about it as we can't really express opinions about it.

Never know. I mean, maybe you know. But I don't know anyway. Maybe one country comes to the table. Then another. Just bits of news like that could make things go crazy.

 

[zoobird]

Any thoughts on buying SVIX or getting some other short exposure to the VIX? Seems like it's inevitable that it drops back into the 20s within a year every time it's ever been over 40 (although it has occasionally spiked way higher first). Basically a bet on things calming down again, even if the market continues to drop and takes a while to work its way back to previous levels.

Prices on those are stupid.

They trade at a premium to underlying value?

 

[Orange&Blue]

if it recovers i will probably move all my 401(k) to government securities. I don't trust anything at this point.

wait...

 

[Sand]

if it recovers i will probably move all my 401(k) to government securities. I don't trust anything at this point.

wait...

Silver, tin, and Miami Beach real estate here.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

50% in the blue chips: Transatlantic Zeppelin, Amalgamated Spats, Congreve's Inflammable Powders, U.S. Hay.

The rest in that up-and-coming Baltimore Opera Hat Company.

 

[Sand]

Head of Goldman Risk - Time to start scaling back in. For what it's worth (maybe that's why futures are up a bit at the moment).

https://archive.md/6aONO

 

[Desert_Power]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

The only strongly growing global economy just shot itself in the foot, to put it mildly. It probably isn't a global collapse, but the last bulwark against a global recession has fallen. And, yes, people do buy less things when they have less money. Even worse, no business can invest in this toxic environment.

The income and wealth effects are going to compound into a long, slow grind at best. I personally don't see the type of leverage out there for large unwinding ala 08. It is less a Minsky Moment than an ongoing destruction for personal political goals.

 

[Bossman]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

What is your timeline for "bringing industry back?"

I doubt we'll ever become the industry powerhouse that we once were ...
But I could see a modest increase in industry over the next 4-5 years.
Ideally we would have larger corporations making decisions and announcements over the next year or so.
With today's technology, I would expect robotics to be more prevalent which will eliminate some of the wage disparity that the US has with other countries. Imagine the bulk of your workforce that can produce 24/7 and doesn't require a salary, healthcare, 401k, or an HR department.

 

[Rirruto]

Let's get nuts. I just opened a tiny short position on a Japanese equity ETF. The Nikkei is ripping based on rumors that Japan is negotiating with the US. Based on what Stephen Miran said the US is after, I'm gambling that we get a headline that the talks are unproductive.

This is not investment advice. Don't do this.

 

[Sand]

UK view (at least one guy) on the tariff situation.

Here’s one key thing you should know about Trump’s shock to the world economy: it could work | James Meadway

It’s hard to say if the president truly knows what he’s doing. But there is a precedent for the US causing short-term chaos and reaping long-term gain, says economist James Meadway

www.theguardian.com

 

[fatness]

China is not feeling cooperative.

 

[eighsse2]

Looking good so far for today

 

[Chemical X]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

if it recovers i will probably move all my 401(k) to government securities. I don't trust anything at this point.

wait...

Silver, tin, and Miami Beach real estate here.

Hope you’re liquid for it. The Boomers are paying cash.

 

[pecorino]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

Great time for a conversion / rollover.

 

[pecorino]

Felt naked all day yesterday and overnight. I really don’t like being 100% invested. Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment) means a lot to me. Everyone needs to find their right levels, I guess. Hopefully this green morning allows me to sell everything bought yesterday +2% or thereabouts and I can sleep better tonight.

 

[BassNBrew]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

LOL...I was just researching this yesterday.

 

[shuke]

Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment)

Where are you getting this right now? I think my Vanguard account is hovering around 4.5%.

 

[Sand]

Bonds sure didn't see recession. Stagflation maybe, but yields have spiked substantially and on the whole not moved much during this.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Felt naked all day yesterday and overnight. I really don’t like being 100% invested. Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment) means a lot to me. Everyone needs to find their right levels, I guess. Hopefully this green morning allows me to sell everything bought yesterday +2% or thereabouts and I can sleep better tonight.

Me neither. I’m never more than about 65% in stocks. I’m about as fully invested as I get right now. Going through those 5-10% down days would have me walking in circles if I were 100% equities.

 

[Bossman]

aaaamd we missed it. So much for bargain basement prices
Move along... Nothing to see here.


I did get some Netflix at least

 

[MTskibum]

So far we have not sold anything, but I do want some cash. My company did lay off 10k people last month and more layoffs will be coming.

Everything we have is in mutual funds, how does selling those work, you get the price at the close? So I want to submit the stuff as close to end of day as possible assuming we are green or at least close?

Not going to take much, but need to have more of a safety net.

 

[McBokonon]

Everything we have is in mutual funds, how does selling those work, you get the price at the close? So I want to submit the stuff as close to end of day as possible assuming we are green or at least close?

Yes, you get the end of day price. You could wait until the end of day to ensure there’s not a crash in the last ten minutes or something, sure. Just make sure you do it before regular market closes because you can’t do it after hours.

 

[beef]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

 

[pecorino]

Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment)

Where are you getting this right now? I think my Vanguard account is hovering around 4.5%.

You are correct. I had not noticed that Vanguard shifted their rates down almost 1%. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[eighsse2]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

Stupid question but Roth is still limited to the $7,000 a year (currently) right? Regardless of how it is contributed, you can't add any more than $7,000 for the year?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

Stupid question but Roth is still limited to the $7,000 a year (currently) right? Regardless of how it is contributed, you can't add any more than $7,000 for the year?

Yeah. $8000 if over 50

 

[eighsse2]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

Stupid question but Roth is still limited to the $7,000 a year (currently) right? Regardless of how it is contributed, you can't add any more than $7,000 for the year?

Yeah. $8000 if over 50

Oh I think I was thinking wrong anyway. I was thinking only Roth is limited, but that applies to both traditional and Roth. I guess that's irrelevant to my situation, nevermind, wasn't thinking. Thanks for the answer.

 

[identikit]

looking like a positive day today

:fingerscrossed:

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Felt naked all day yesterday and overnight. I really don’t like being 100% invested. Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment) means a lot to me. Everyone needs to find their right levels, I guess. Hopefully this green morning allows me to sell everything bought yesterday +2% or thereabouts and I can sleep better tonight.

You say that, but are you really 100% invested?

 

[eighsse2]

looking like a positive day today

:fingerscrossed:

Excellent open.

 

[Wooderson]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

Stupid question but Roth is still limited to the $7,000 a year (currently) right? Regardless of how it is contributed, you can't add any more than $7,000 for the year?

Correct you are limited how much you can contribute to your Roth assuming you are not over the income limit. When it comes to Roth conversion no limit on how much you can convert.

 

[pecorino]

Felt naked all day yesterday and overnight. I really don’t like being 100% invested. Having the right amount of cash on the sidelines (especially in a 5.2% rate money market environment) means a lot to me. Everyone needs to find their right levels, I guess. Hopefully this green morning allows me to sell everything bought yesterday +2% or thereabouts and I can sleep better tonight.

You say that, but are you really 100% invested?

Not really. I could quit my job and devote all of my time to investing.

All my stop-limit orders hit this morning (I set them good and tight) so maybe a nice nap this afternoon.

 

[MTskibum]

I think the LLM bubble is coming fast, i think all this recent instability is what is going to trigger it. Those companies are losing tons of money on AI with no path to revenue.

When those investor dollars dry up then they will not have enough money to cover their substantial cost.

The Generative AI Con

It's been just over two years and two months since ChatGPT launched, and in that time we've seen Large Language Models (LLMs) blossom from a novel concept into one of the most craven cons of the 21st century — a cynical bubble inflated by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman built to sell

www.wheresyoured.at

Similarweb data states that google.gemini.com had 47.3 million unique monthly visitors in January 2025, copilot.microsoft.com had 15.6 million, Perplexity.ai had 10.6 million, and claude.ai had 8.2 million. These aren't great numbers! These numbers suggest that these products aren't very popular at all!
The combined unique monthly visitors in January 2025 to ChatGPT.com (246m), DeepSeek.com (79.9m), Gemini.Google.com (47.3m), Copilot.microsoft.com (15.6m), Perplexity.ai (10.6m), character.ai (8.4m), claude.ai (8.2m) and notebookLM.google.com (7.4m) was 423.4 million - or an astonishing 97.5 million if you remove ChatGPT and DeepSeek.
For context, the New York Times said in their 2023 annual report that they received 131 million unique monthly visitors globally, and CNN says they have more than 151 million unique monthly visitors.

This isn't the early days of anything.
The Attention Is All You Need paper that started the whole transformer-based architecture movement was published in June 2017. We're over two years in, hyperscalers have sunk over 200 billion dollars in capital expenditures into generative AI, AI startups took up a third of all venture capital investment in 2024, and almost every single talented artificial intelligence expert is laser-focused on Large Language Models. And even then, we still don't have a killer app! There is no product that everybody loves, and there is no iPhone moment!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Raised some cash from yesterdays buys just in case

 

[MTskibum]

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/04/...oses-the-gap-between-ai-ambition-and-reality/

"The vibes around llama 4 so far are decidedly mid," independent AI researcher Simon Willison told Ars Technica. Willison often checks the community pulse around open source and open weights AI releases in particular.

.....

researcher Andriy Burkov, author of "The Hundred-Page Language Models Book," argued the underwhelming Llama 4 launch reinforces skepticism about monolithic base models. He stated that recent "disappointing releases of both GPT-4.5 and Llama 4 have shown that if you don't train a model to reason with reinforcement learning, increasing its size no longer provides benefits."

 

[Capella]

So looks like the US markets already priced in the tariffs?

Both S&P and NASDAQ up on the day.

Today is fake. Tomorrow we get the belt.

Update: the rabbit’s got the gun

 

[BassNBrew]

Pocketed a 19% gain on a healthy amount of VRT. It had reached 6.5% of my portfolio so trimmed to 5%. Still need to trim more but the 75% of what's left is red.

 

[The Longtime Lurker]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

How is this taxed? Do they tax gains, or just the initial investment? I can ask in another thread if this isn't meant for here.

 

[BassNBrew]

I was just thinking....the last time this occurred, I converted any IRAs into Roths. You can also convert a portion. With the drop in values and prices, maybe this a small way to make back some money on the back end. Of course you need to pay the tax when you file after 2025, but the value reduction is something to consider.

I did this during the Covid crash. Didn't take long to pay for itself.

How is this taxed? Do they tax gains, or just the initial investment? I can ask in another thread if this isn't meant for here.

All of it is taxed as income.