Stock Thread (66 Viewers)

[Capella]

I feel like I’ll be telling my kids about this when we’re living in the woods one day.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I feel like I’ll be telling my kids about this when we’re living in the woods one day.

Lol…….dad, why are we living in a tent?

 

[fred_1_15301]

Can’t time the market!

 

[Man In The Box]

I, for one, just love having my entire family’s future in a casino that can get wiped out with a few tweets. I’m just upping my contributions by a percent and plowing ahead. Not much else of a choice.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I, for one, just love having my entire family’s future in a casino that can get wiped out with a few tweets. I’m just upping my contributions by a percent and plowing ahead. Not much else of a choice.

Short term it’s gambling nothing more.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Preach:

Bill Ackman: “But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital,” Ackman continued. “The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country. If, on the other hand, on April 9 we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.”

I used to have respect for Ackmann. One of my better investments was also his PSH. But him now playing captain hindsight is pretty weak.

Ackman is a typical “master of the universe.” Thinks that because he made money as an investor he knows it all and deserves a voice on every topic. I’ve met him twice (briefly). Smart guy. Huge ego. We didn’t hit it off the 2nd time haha.

 

[kutta]

15% of my retirement accounts have evaporated, and it's looking like I'll be down 20% at the open. I was hoping to retire this fall.

I’m down 20% before Monday. I was also kicking around retirement soon. I guess I’ll keep slogging away…

Wait, don't you own a company? Are you that exposed to equities or is your company value also hurt because of the broader sell off?

I sold the company 10 years ago but still run it. I also got divorced 3 years ago so half my nest egg is gone. I threw a bunch of cash into equities after my divorce. Worked out great for the first 3 years

 

[Chemical X]

I, for one, just love having my entire family’s future in a casino that can get wiped out with a few tweets. I’m just upping my contributions by a percent and plowing ahead. Not much else of a choice.

i felt or feel the same way. i figured in a weird way, this was an attempt to strengthen the U.S. dollar. if that was the case, i could stomach some of this nonsense. the euro exchange is obviously important to me, but so is the market, with retirement and all. but since inauguration day, exchange has gone from about 1.03 to about 1.09-1.10. thank god i get free eggs and a lidl pretzel for .49.

 

[djmich]

Preach:

Bill Ackman: “But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital,” Ackman continued. “The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country. If, on the other hand, on April 9 we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.”

I used to have respect for Ackmann. One of my better investments was also his PSH. But him now playing captain hindsight is pretty weak.

He was huge champion of Trump and now back tracking when he sees policies implemented.

Right, much prefer everyone picks a side and stays there, don't evaluate each item on the merits.

 

[Pipes]

And we'll falling again. So crazy

 

[lakerstan]

I think the stock market’s broken. Can someone call tech support?

 

[Desert_Power]

I think the stock market’s broken. Can someone call tech support?

I think they are in recess.

 

[Acrobat7]

I think the stock market’s broken. Can someone call tech support?

Tech support arrives at -7%.

 

[McBokonon]

And we'll falling again. So crazy

Looks like a certain someone all-caps threatened even MORE China tariffs via a particular unofficial, though often-used, communications platform.

 

[Sand]

And we'll falling again. So crazy

Huge tug of war going on. Obviously a lot of buyers and sellers taking turns yanking the rope.

 

[NajehHejan]

And we'll falling again. So crazy

Looks like a certain someone all-caps threatened even MORE China tariffs via a particular unofficial, though often-used, communications platform.

Yep. Another 50% on top. Many companies would go underwater, including mine. I may have to do something rash and liquidate everything I have and plow it into SOXL

 

[ghostguy123]

And we'll falling again. So crazy

Looks like a certain someone all-caps threatened even MORE China tariffs via a particular unofficial, though often-used, communications platform.

Ah whatever, not like we buy anything made/sent from China.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Added some more QQQ on the trip back down after the big spike. I probably won't make any more moves today, for better or for worse, since I have no idea what's going on.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think the stock market’s broken. Can someone call tech support?

Is it plugged in?

Have you tried turning it off and then back on?

 

[Pip's Invitation]

All political tariff stuff should be posted in MoP's black Monday thread - let's not get this thread shut down (like that one eventually will).

... And it's dead.

 

[Bossman]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

 

[Stoneworker]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

 

[BassNBrew]

Did all the margins calls happen this morning and we are done?

 

[ericttspikes]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

I may just be a simple organic animal, but our entire economic system is built on consumer spending. High stock prices are because consumers buy things and companies have high margins on COGS. None of this made sense 6 months ago, and still doesn't. We want to bring cheap labor here? Is the plan to get people to make even less per hour? It's just wild.

I know of at least 5 friends who own companies in my small social circle who basically buy cheap components to create different products to sell. No cheap components, no business.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

All political tariff stuff should be posted in MoP's black Monday thread - let's not get this thread shut down (like that one eventually will).

... And it's dead.

shocked - hopefully the ones that can't help themselves don't get this thread shut down, It's the same idiots every time.

 

[Bossman]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

flashing green again. we're stuck on the LOLercoaster.

 

[Stoneworker]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

our entire economic system is built on consumer spending.

Yes. And a disproportionate amount of consumer spending is done by the wealthy.

So stocks tanking will result in a reverse wealth effect where consumer spending will fall even if no meaningful change to prices of retail goods.

 

[Stoneworker]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

What is your timeline for "bringing industry back?"

 

[culdeus]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

Our trained labor market is desk workers. You don't just convert service and retail and farm workers overnight to supervising robots making shoes.

Here there is very little appetite for increased costs. See eggs, gas, housing. Our quality of life has been maintained mostly due to cheap crap made with nearly no labor cost and sketchy environment regs.

 

[BassNBrew]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

Our trained labor market is desk workers. You don't just convert service and retail and farm workers overnight to supervising robots making shoes.

Here there is very little appetite for increased costs. See eggs, gas, housing. Our quality of life has been maintained mostly due to cheap crap made with nearly no labor cost and sketchy environment regs.

Agree, but I would also add the willingness to take on massive debt, both individually and as a country.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Updated master list will be posted at some point.

Thanks, looking forward to it.

 

[culdeus]

People are right to be concerned but at least see it for what it is. Not an economic global collapse. Is the doom and gloom justified?
Yes, we'll no longer have 50" TV's for $300 ... or a 6 pack of T-Shirts for $15...
But you can still purchase these products ... but now the 50" TV will be $450 and 6 pack of T's $22. Will people not buy them then? Just go without? Doubt it.
Prices are going up and the additional $ paid (in tariff) is going to the US Fed government not overseas. Potentially reducing the deficit and maybe tax relief for some.
It's not the end of times. The world is not ending. Now lets get back to our bargain basement stock shopping.

I believe you may be underestimating how higher prices deter consumer spending...and how lower consumer spending impacts earnings...and how lower earnings causes negative economic growth....and how negative economic growth causes layoffs and high unemployment...which causes lower consumer spending, etc etc

Some would argue that we can't bring industry back due to lack of labor. Shrinking workforce.
... Now we're concerned about layoffs? Someone has to keep an eye on the robots.

Our trained labor market is desk workers. You don't just convert service and retail and farm workers overnight to supervising robots making shoes.

Here there is very little appetite for increased costs. See eggs, gas, housing. Our quality of life has been maintained mostly due to cheap crap made with nearly no labor cost and sketchy environment regs.

Agree, but I would also add the willingness to take on massive debt, both individually and as a country.

Yes. Why would Nike do this? They could just sell to China and exit the US market and still make more money than making shoes here and selling to Americans in the current environment. And this is without getting debt to make factories they don't need.

 

[Jayrod]

So looks like the US markets already priced in the tariffs?

Both S&P and NASDAQ up on the day.

 

[culdeus]

So looks like the US markets already priced in the tariffs?

Both S&P and NASDAQ up on the day.

Recession over. Get back to work in your factory.

 

[Capella]

So looks like the US markets already priced in the tariffs?

Both S&P and NASDAQ up on the day.

Today is fake. Tomorrow we get the belt.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

So looks like the US markets already priced in the tariffs?

Both S&P and NASDAQ up on the day.

Today is fake. Tomorrow we get the belt.

Pick your own "switch"?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

The Nintendo kids are going to be very confused about why that sounds like a bad thing.

 

[ghostguy123]

Only one of my super low (so I thought) limit orders hit.
UWMC.
I didn't expect that one.

 

[Sand]

Only one of my super low (so I thought) limit orders hit.
UWMC.
I didn't expect that one.

This morning with the last $50 I had free in my play account I bought some more of this.

 

[Dezbelief]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

 

[ghostguy123]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

I had asked this before, but in 403b and 401k a lot of people are in the "safer" funds, so something like a 2025 or 2030 target date fund.
How much have those particular funds lost?

 

[culdeus]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

I had asked this before, but in 403b and 401k a lot of people are in the "safer" funds, so something like a 2025 or 2030 target date fund.
How much have those particular funds lost?

Even +5 are still going to be 60/40 equities. The close in funds also have the highest fees as a rule.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

I had asked this before, but in 403b and 401k a lot of people are in the "safer" funds, so something like a 2025 or 2030 target date fund.
How much have those particular funds lost?

Not a lot, the Vanguard 2030 has lost 4.5% YTD, bonds have done quite well. Issue is a lot of near retirees are invested quite aggressively still.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My daughter's swim coach was set to retire in May. He announced this afternoon he will be back next year. He's a good coach and all the parents were sad to see him retire. He's been coaching these kids for over 2 decades and deserves to ride off in the sunset.

I still remember 2008 and a guy I worked with had to stay two additional years after planning his retirement

 

[ghostguy123]

I just looked at one, VTTVX.
Down 10% the past 6 months. Down 3.26% year to date.
However, it's down like 24% from it's all time high in 2021.

 

[Bossman]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Only one of my super low (so I thought) limit orders hit.
UWMC.
I didn't expect that one.

This morning with the last $50 I had free in my play account I bought some more of this.

Feels like 3am in the casino.

You're totally going to get an 11 and have to double down.

 

[eighsse2]

"... How can I retire now with the stock market now the lowest it's been since 2024."
Sounds kinda dramatic. Yes, a years worth of gains is gone but I wouldn't rule out a fast recovery.

Exactly what I was saying in a conversation earlier today, lol. Almost exactly a year, for all three major indices. It totally sucks, but pump the brakes on the bunkers and MRE's.

 

[zoobird]

Any thoughts on buying SVIX or getting some other short exposure to the VIX? Seems like it's inevitable that it drops back into the 20s within a year every time it's ever been over 40 (although it has occasionally spiked way higher first). Basically a bet on things calming down again, even if the market continues to drop and takes a while to work its way back to previous levels.