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Great

Have a meeting on Thursday that has been booked for weeks with my financial planner. Deciding whether to retire or not now. I bet I know the answer. Haven't even looked at the hit. Wasn't 100% in equities but it's down no matter what. Looks like living several years off of cash.
 
You know...I was prepared for a lot, mentally anyway. But I was not prepared for this. I just don't understand it. Doesn't seem to me we needed to go there. Such a shame. I feel bad for me. I feel a lot worse for my kids. Glad they're still too young to really understand just what the heck is going on.
 
I sold off a bunch the last couple weeks, but decided to keep my medium to high conviction stocks to just ride them out. Wondering now if I should sell out of everything except my highest conviction stuff at open tomorrow. Seems like we could be in some pain for a while…
 
Nugget said:
Nugget said:
beef said:
ghostguy123 said:
Woke up just now and thought I was living in groundhog day.
SOXL just might hit 7 after all
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I just entered 3 buy limits for today. lowest at 7.69. might have to do a 6.93 just in case.
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I'm put my order in at 6.80. Praying it doesn't hit.
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Dropped the SOXL order to 5.40. I also don’t see how we possibly dodge a recession.
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I have too much of this stuff right now. Not a LOT, but too much. Probably like 2 grand worth now, who even knows.
 
ghostguy123 said:
McBokonon said:
ghostguy123 said:
Random question.
How much does the market need to drop to be considered a black swan event?
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A black swan event isn't related to how much/how little anything drops. It's just a way to describe an impactful, unpredictable event. I feel like whatever negative impacts we see from this were more predictable than something like, say, COVID, and won't really qualify. We're all sort of seeing it happen in real time and it's not like there wasn't warnings.
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Then why wasn't everyone in here pounding the table to buy UVXY??
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I have some

Purchased $38 calls at $8.50 expiring 4/17
 
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pecorino said:
My birthday isn't for a few months but I know what I want. Can you imagine the market reaction on Monday if our President says these few words: "Now that we have your attention, I am calling on the leaders of every country on the globe to contact me so that we can work out a deal that will be mutually beneficial. You have seen that we are willing to endure the pain of imposing stiff tariffs as we see fit. Now let's talk. I am negating all tariffs imposed on 4/2 but will reinstate them in ____ months unless a better deal is struck with each of our trading partners. You know my number, let's negotiate." I can dream...

It's amazing to me that the entire global market could turn on a few sentences from one man.
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I think the danger is all the countries that now have lost trust in the US market and are looking to work together outside of us. If we try to pull the power move and say we’re ready to negotiate, what happens if they respond with “no thanks, we’re good”? If that happens, our economy could see permanent negative effects IMO. We’re in dangerous waters.
 
Desert_Power said:
Sand said:
The list of 2 day moves >10% and what happens after. 7 sigma move, so very rare.

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Looking like we project to open up as a new record there, but I'm split on which way it will go from there...
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New record? How? Wasn't it down like 5-6% Friday (x0.94) and projected to open down around 4% currently (x0.96)? Multiplied together you get x.90 or -10%.
 
Nugget said:
Nugget said:
beef said:
ghostguy123 said:
Woke up just now and thought I was living in groundhog day.
SOXL just might hit 7 after all
Click to expand...
I just entered 3 buy limits for today. lowest at 7.69. might have to do a 6.93 just in case.
Click to expand...
I'm put my order in at 6.80. Praying it doesn't hit.
Click to expand...
Dropped the SOXL order to 5.40. I also don’t see how we possibly dodge a recession.
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7.69 puts me at about a 10% drop from my last buy. Expecting to see it lower than that. I'll be watching the premarket and adjust from there. This could turn into a very big SOXL position like I had a couple years ago.
 
eighsse2 said:
Desert_Power said:
Sand said:
The list of 2 day moves >10% and what happens after. 7 sigma move, so very rare.

Click to expand...
Looking like we project to open up as a new record there, but I'm split on which way it will go from there...
Click to expand...
New record? How? Wasn't it down like 5-6% Friday (x0.94) and projected to open down around 4% currently (x0.96)? Multiplied together you get x.90 or -10%.
Click to expand...

I think he's saying a new record for the 3rd day.

It was down 10.5% on Thurs/Fri combined. Sand's post shows when we have two consecutive days with a total double digit drop, the 3rd day being bad is rare (and it has never been as bad as the prior two days). If futures hold (far from a guarantee), it would be the first time we've ever had a 3rd day drop that was that bad.
 
Last edited:
eighsse2 said:
Desert_Power said:
Sand said:
The list of 2 day moves >10% and what happens after. 7 sigma move, so very rare.

Click to expand...
Looking like we project to open up as a new record there, but I'm split on which way it will go from there...
Click to expand...
New record? How? Wasn't it down like 5-6% Friday (x0.94) and projected to open down around 4% currently (x0.96)? Multiplied together you get x.90 or -10%.
Click to expand...

Breakers weren't really setup to stop this type of bleeding.
 
jvdesigns2002 said:
The_Man said:
ghostguy123 said:
Man, I swear the S&P was just green like 20 minutes ago...
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I honestly don't understand the stock market. S&P down almost 2% most of the day, climbs all the way back to green, then goes down 1.25% in the last 35 minutes of the day
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I fear that my post is going to come across or someone will interpret it as being political even though I’m 10000% not intending it to be. Regardless of if one agrees or disagrees with the actions of the new administration—one constant is that our markets tend to like a certain level of consistency and predictability. It’s clear that this administration is one that is not averse to taking action and doing so quickly. This kind of action and environment seems like it has a strong potential to breed volatility. it does seem as though the ultimate goal of this administration is to be more business friendly (more deregulation, lowering of corporate taxes)—but getting to those goals might be involve going through some ups and some downs. I’m not sure what @Todem thinks—but it kinda feels like the major downswings could be solid opportunities for long term investors to get into some good deals. I also feel like the volatility could make for some nice opportunities for stock traders—but that’s certainly not a risk-free proposition. Over the past few months, I actually sold some of my positions and took some profits. I’ve also been selling some of my alternative assets (some sportscards, timepieces) and keeping my cash on the sidelines. I just feel like there is going to be some opportunities in the stock market or possibly the real estate market in the next year to 18months to where I can make some moves. I might be misplaying the situation, but I feel a bit more comfortable having some extra cash on the sidelines right now.
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Aside from selling off more of my alternative assets, I haven’t made many moves since I’ve posted this. I had already trimmed most of my excess stock positions by then—but I certainly still have enough left in to be feeling this recent market downturn. It’s been rough to say the least. With that said, as tempting as it is to dive back in and deploy some of my cash at these reduced prices, I think I’m going to stay the course and stay on the sidelines for a little while. For the short term, I don’t know if I see the market gaining traction and being able to sustain a rally. I hope that I’m wrong, but it feels like if people buy in now—and if stocks start to turn—I don’t see a how a large portion of them don’t just sell back off to take a profit. As an investor, I just feel like there is a lot of unease and instability. I wish I could explain it with some sort of data—but I can’t—it’s just a feeling. Medium to long term, I’m still bullish—but I’d be lying if I said I had any sort of comfort levels in my expectations for what the short term is going to look or feel like. Good luck to everybody.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
eighsse2 said:
Desert_Power said:
Sand said:
The list of 2 day moves >10% and what happens after. 7 sigma move, so very rare.

Click to expand...
Looking like we project to open up as a new record there, but I'm split on which way it will go from there...
Click to expand...
New record? How? Wasn't it down like 5-6% Friday (x0.94) and projected to open down around 4% currently (x0.96)? Multiplied together you get x.90 or -10%.
Click to expand...

I think he's saying a new record for the 3rd day.

It was down 10.5% on Thurs/Fri combined. Sand's post shows when we have two consecutive days with a total double digit drop, the 3rd day being bad is rare (and it has never been as bad as the prior two days). If futures hold (far from a guarantee), it would be the first time we've ever had a 3rd day drop that was that bad.
Click to expand...
Except I think Sand shows a 5 day forward view. Either way, not a great start. I think we’re all agreeing.
 
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
 
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...
I don’t doubt that and I don’t disagree that what you describe in regard to “walking back” is a potential outcome. I just don’t know if the market will digest it confidently. We know that this administration is willing to take very quick and unpredictable action. Even if they walk back, I do think that a lot of people’s comfort level and confidence has been eroded. People hate seeing their net worths compromised by drastic and quick political shocks (even if those shocks are well intended) regardless of where they may stand politically. Walking things back might raise the markets temporarily, but I’m not sure if it has the same effect on wiping out unease.
 
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...

I think the super rich people don't hate the downturns because they usually have cash to buy more at reduced prices.

It's the normies where the pressure would come from and I was initially somewhat optimistic that might make him walk it back, but I made the mistake of going on Twitter today and I've flipped on that because people are buying the "reciprocal" thing hook line & sinker.

Most people seem to genuinely believe that Vietnam's government has a 92% tariff on US goods and that's why we're putting tariffs on them, generously priced at only half their tariff rate.

When the EU hinted at retaliatory tariffs today 99% of the reply tweets to it were people completely dumbfounded as to why the EU would retaliate against tariffs that are already retaliatory against their alleged already existing tariffs on the US.
 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...
I don’t doubt that and I don’t disagree that what you describe in regard to “walking back” is a potential outcome. I just don’t know if the market will digest it confidently. We know that this administration is willing to take very quick and unpredictable action. Even if they walk back, I do think that a lot of people’s comfort level and confidence has been eroded. People hate seeing their net worths compromised by drastic and quick political shocks (even if those shocks are well intended) regardless of where they may stand politically. Walking things back might raise the markets temporarily, but I’m not sure if it has the same effect on wiping out unease.
Click to expand...
Oh we’re definitely not seeing the highs we enjoyed earlier this year again this year imo. I’m not that optimistic.
 
⚡DEADHEAD⚡ said:
You know...I was prepared for a lot, mentally anyway. But I was not prepared for this. I just don't understand it. Doesn't seem to me we needed to go there. Such a shame. I feel bad for me. I feel a lot worse for my kids. Glad they're still too young to really understand just what the heck is going on.
Click to expand...
We didn't need to go there but it was clear that's where we were going.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...

I think the super rich people don't hate the downturns because they usually have cash to buy more at reduced prices.

It's the normies where the pressure would come from and I was initially somewhat optimistic that might make him walk it back, but I made the mistake of going on Twitter today and I've flipped on that because people are buying the "reciprocal" thing hook line & sinker.

Most people seem to genuinely believe that Vietnam's government has a 92% tariff on US goods and that's why we're putting tariffs on them, generously priced at only half their tariff rate.

When the EU hinted at retaliatory tariffs today 99% of the reply tweets to it were people completely dumbfounded as to why the EU would retaliate against tariffs that are already retaliatory against their alleged already existing tariffs on the US.
Click to expand...
It's Twitter. I'd be surprised if this wasn't the case there.
 
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...

simply walking it back a bit is not going to fix this -- it's going to take a lot more than that. A complete about face is needed just to start, and it needs to be sincere and believable, I don't see that happening.
 
Capella said:
jvdesigns2002 said:
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...
I don’t doubt that and I don’t disagree that what you describe in regard to “walking back” is a potential outcome. I just don’t know if the market will digest it confidently. We know that this administration is willing to take very quick and unpredictable action. Even if they walk back, I do think that a lot of people’s comfort level and confidence has been eroded. People hate seeing their net worths compromised by drastic and quick political shocks (even if those shocks are well intended) regardless of where they may stand politically. Walking things back might raise the markets temporarily, but I’m not sure if it has the same effect on wiping out unease.
Click to expand...
Oh we’re definitely not seeing the highs we enjoyed earlier this year again this year imo. I’m not that optimistic.
Click to expand...
It is definitely possible. 20% chance imo
 
GreenNGold said:
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...

simply walking it back a bit is not going to fix this -- it's going to take a lot more than that. A complete about face is needed just to start, and it needs to be sincere and believable, I don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
Yea that’s not really feasible.
 
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...
Not so sure about that. Super rich people got the inside scoop, and shorted to make money on the way down as well. People with that kind of money hedge for events like this. Can anyone with a straight face say that inside information doesn't get passed on both sides of the aisle? C'mon.
 
kutta said:
Mookie said:
15% of my retirement accounts have evaporated, and it's looking like I'll be down 20% at the open. I was hoping to retire this fall.
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I’m down 20% before Monday. I was also kicking around retirement soon. I guess I’ll keep slogging away…
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Wait, don't you own a company? Are you that exposed to equities or is your company value also hurt because of the broader sell off?
 
Ridgeback said:
Capella said:
Maybe I’m an optimist or crazy but I think there will be some walking back of these this week in terms of “making deals” with other countries. This can’t keep on. Some super rich people are going to get margin called and they are not going to be pleased about that.
Click to expand...
Not so sure about that. Super rich people got the inside scoop, and shorted to make money on the way down as well. People with that kind of money hedge for events like this. Can anyone with a straight face say that inside information doesn't get passed on both sides of the aisle? C'mon.
Click to expand...
Senate and House reps need to disclose their trades like month after I think. Let's see if these guys made moves to liquidate or even short the market.
 
Wow, only down 2.5% at the moment. Weird that Im mildly relieved it's only down that much, lol. I'm sure that relief will go away when it hits 5% again.
If my current limit orders hit then yikes. I put in some lowwww limit orders today.....
 
ghostguy123 said:
Wow, only down 2.5% at the moment. Weird that Im mildly relieved it's only down that much, lol. I'm sure that relief will go away when it hits 5% again.
If my current limit orders hit then yikes. I put in some lowwww limit orders today.....
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Feels like anything approaching a stabilization will just trigger more dumping. Everything feels tenuous right now.
 
Question. Did China's markets take a big hit last week also? Or did they take a hit for today after they announced their increased tariffs??
 
ghostguy123 said:
Question. Did China's markets take a big hit last week also? Or did they take a hit for today after they announced their increased tariffs??
Click to expand...

April 06, 2025 — 09:04 pm EDT

RTTNews) - Ahead of Friday's holiday for Tomb Sweeping Day, the China stock market had ended the two-day winning streak in which it had risen almost 15 points or 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just above the 3,340-point plateau and it may tick lower again on Monday.
 
Dezbelief said:
ghostguy123 said:
Question. Did China's markets take a big hit last week also? Or did they take a hit for today after they announced their increased tariffs??
Click to expand...

April 06, 2025 — 09:04 pm EDT

RTTNews) - Ahead of Friday's holiday for Tomb Sweeping Day, the China stock market had ended the two-day winning streak in which it had risen almost 15 points or 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just above the 3,340-point plateau and it may tick lower again on Monday.
Click to expand...
Good read:
 
Desert_Power said:
Dezbelief said:
ghostguy123 said:
Question. Did China's markets take a big hit last week also? Or did they take a hit for today after they announced their increased tariffs??
Click to expand...

April 06, 2025 — 09:04 pm EDT

RTTNews) - Ahead of Friday's holiday for Tomb Sweeping Day, the China stock market had ended the two-day winning streak in which it had risen almost 15 points or 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just above the 3,340-point plateau and it may tick lower again on Monday.
Click to expand...
Good read:
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Did they put their economy behind a paywall?
 
BassNBrew said:
Just went back and read some pages in here from back in the upper 300s. Just littered with "this time's it's different", "you'll get a second chance to get back in", etc.
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We are having that kinda moment again.

Updated master list will be posted at some point.
 
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