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Stock Thread (44 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’d need to watch premarket to get a good gauge on how to set your order. It may run pre-market on this news.
Capella
Footballguy
Who knows really, I’d say 205 has a chance to fill. That’s around 3.5%
Rirruto
Footballguy
1. Apple pumping on Friday makes a lot more sense now. I watched it for some of the afternoon. I thought about buying a few shares on the theory that the pump made no sense, so someone must know a lot more than I do. But I'm a coward.
2. I'm starting to look really closely at oil. Yes, I'm envisioning an economy in most of the world that slows demand over the coming months. But oil is still largely controlled by a cartel that's not going to let it get stupid cheap (yeah, except during the pandemic but I don't think that's comparable here). My play account is just going to be S&P puts, gold, oil, cash, and biotech stocks that I believe in/bag holding for now. A really, really weirdo portfolio. Maybe I should build a cabin in the woods or something.
2. I'm starting to look really closely at oil. Yes, I'm envisioning an economy in most of the world that slows demand over the coming months. But oil is still largely controlled by a cartel that's not going to let it get stupid cheap (yeah, except during the pandemic but I don't think that's comparable here). My play account is just going to be S&P puts, gold, oil, cash, and biotech stocks that I believe in/bag holding for now. A really, really weirdo portfolio. Maybe I should build a cabin in the woods or something.
Why Nike?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Because I sold it yesterday, of course.
Sorry, I misread the news as applying broadly to China, not specifically to tech. My bad.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I kind of agree with the Monday guess but US needs to negotiate with China asap, this 145% tariff is not sustainable, the pain will be real, importers are abandoning goods at Customs, can’t afford to pay the duties, just straight up walking away
Ah, okay. But even then, Nike „only“ produces like 20% in China.
Todem
Footballguy
Agree. Negotiations need to be hard core. It is unsustainable hence more volatility and a retest could easily happen if we hear crickets.
I expect there to be intense negotiations quite soon.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
SEMICONDUCTOR, ELECTRONIC TARIFFS WILL COME IN A MONTH OR SO, LUTNICK SAYS
It was fun while it lasted
The Z Machine
Footballguy
If countries are dumping treasuries because of uncertainty and distrust buy them, it seems likely that rates will jump. Who will blink first in this economic war?
You have any links on that news? Not that I don't doubt it. There's lots of products (most?) where a 145% tariff would make it negative margin. But I thought that there were exemptions for ships already on the water? Meaning that the stock wouldn't leave China instead of being abandoned at US ports.
Also, I could see a lot of that inventory being diverted to Canada and Mexico. Even if you can sell it for 0 profit, that's better than taking a lot on the import. Either that or there's gonna be a quick ramp in prices on some items.
For this and all news, can you please share a link?
Rirruto
Footballguy
Link to tweet of Lutnick speaking about the tariffs on electronics.
massraider
Footballguy
Not sure I would mark that in pen.
And the uncertainty is a problem
Redwes25
Footballguy
What is even more non-sensical is we have tariffs on components. So you import a completed computer no tariff but if you want to assembly one here you are paying a tariff. This change is actually making onshoring manufacturing more difficult and clearly they just bowed to pressure from Apple and a few others.
culdeus
Footballguy
Being in this industry there is basically nothing but custom shops doing assembly on prototypes, and I think a lot of what they do is ship stuff overseas for the actual work because it's hard and dirty.
Shiny wafers are really just the start. There's a whole back end that this admin just doesn't get we lack 20-30-40 years of experience in. Foxconn couldn't even get panels built here and that's probably the easiest assembly job there is.
I had to couch my statement because they change their positions on tariffs quickly. A whole bunch of Sunday shows to get through and to stay on message.
That didn't happen.
Normally, Trump is quoted by the media on Sunday evening heading back to Washington.
Cleanup on Aisle 2 or more doubling down?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
RE: dumping treasures, this was an interesting read. Can't recall who posted it where, so I may be recycling here.
Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada's Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs
Carney, Japan And The EU proved America's Idiot Emperor Has No Clothes
deanblundell.substack.com
culdeus
Footballguy
RE: dumping treasures, this was an interesting read. Can't recall who posted it where, so I may be recycling here.
Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada's Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs
Carney, Japan And The EU proved America's Idiot Emperor Has No Clothes
Feel like last week some finally understood that the US consumer pays the import tarrif. This week we understand that foreign debt holders control our yields.
Please don't use either of the 5 letter words in this thread. Some of us actually learn things here that are financially beneficial.
Rirruto
Footballguy
I'm not posting this as anything political. Just the chief policymaker confirming that electronics are in a different bucket, but that they will still be subject to tariffs. Important because there were rumors floating the the WH was divided on Lutnick's comments.
I was really hoping for a spike in the markets tomorrow so that I could get some more puts for cheaper. Oh, well.
Rirruto
Footballguy
SP500 futures are +1.8%. Good. Retail is still willing to provide exit liquidity to the institutions. Makes sense for both parties. Hedge funders have to send out at least quarterly statements explaining what they've done. A "buy the dip" guy got REKT buying what seemed like the dip in October 08. Same "buy the dip" guy was happy with his stocks in 2018 if he held them though.
My puts tomorrow might be the biggest trade of my life.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Rirruto
Footballguy
No one should follow me. I held NVIDIA for years (SMART!!!). Sold it during the first rumors of tariffs to buy gold (SMART!!!). Sold a big stake in gold literally the night before gold had the largest percentage daily gain in its history. Gold has been around since before humanity. I'm a dum dum.
I'm cash, gold, and SP500 puts. The gold and puts are just to try to stay even because I know that there's going to come a time when I'm going to quote John Mack, the former CEO of Morgan Stanley, when he would say "there's blood in the water; let's ****ing kill somebody." We aren't close to there yet. We haven't had one layoff. We haven't had one percentage tick in inflation. We haven't had one company miss earnings.
But I'm a dum dum. Don't listen to me.
culdeus
Footballguy
Futures have been pretty crappy at predicting daily closes. I also don't think futures is retail driven. A lot of it is algos and foreign stuff hedging rebalancing they have to do if one region implodes vs another
Which puts are you buying?
Close. $206 the low for today but it’s within shouting distance for you.
NKE up more than AAPL? Weird.
Rory won the Masters.
kevzilla
Footballguy
It's up 23% today, of course. I wish I could get "Rarely wrong, but often early" instead of "Footballguy"
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Too bad they canned their golf line. I rather liked some of their pull-overs even though I golf about as well as a manatee (and look like one now too, which is neat).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There stuff was cool and I actually think it'd be doing pretty well right now if they had stuck with it. Golf has really grown in popularity and style is more important than ever before.
identikit
Footballguy
I'm confused....
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
So what exactly went up today in tech besides Apple lol?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
GOOGL
LRCX
PSTG
PANW
LRCX
PSTG
PANW
Sand
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm confused....
Clubs and balls.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm confused....
Clubs and balls.
Right, I should have edited my comment. I can still find a size Smedium pull-over that doesn't flatter me.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This is very you.I'm confused....
Clubs and balls.
Right, I should have edited my comment. I can still find a size Smedium pull-over that doesn't flatter me.
If it were green and yellow, I'd swear you'd become a Nike model.
