Stock Thread (5 Viewers)

[JB Breakfast Club]

Remember when SOFI had great earnings?

 

[The Z Machine]

What's funny is the bears I've been following turned short term bullish over the last few days.

oops

 

[pecorino]

Well...yesterday we took a header early, then clawed most of it back. Maybe today will be the same. My Little Orphan IRA is still 20% cash, and regrettably, growing.

Good call. I was just about to say that this time it’s different.

 

[Sand]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

 

[Nugget]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

This is the math they are basing decisions on...fyi.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-trade-navarro-us-gdp-drop-tariffs-stock-market.html

and we haven't seen the meaningful impacts of import shortages coming in the next couple weeks. A drop in GDP of -.3% (forcast of .8% growth during 1Q was the prediction) seems problematic and that is before seeing import delays/reductions in a few weeks, but they like it apparently.

 

[BassNBrew]

This is the math they are basing decisions on...fyi.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-trade-navarro-us-gdp-drop-tariffs-stock-market.html

and we haven't seen the meaningful impacts of import shortages coming in the next couple weeks. A drop in GDP of -.3% (forcast of .8% growth during 1Q was the prediction) seems problematic and that is before seeing import delays/reductions in a few weeks, but they like it apparently.

The accelerated imports in advance of the tariffs apparently factored in the GDP number. I'm definitely anti-tariff, but they aren't wrong on this assessment.

 

[General Malaise]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

 

[BassNBrew]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

That would be glorious for me personally. In this area sellers are being stubborn and inventory is growing. Some minor price reductions but sellers are still shooting for the moon out of the gates.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Of course the boss disagrees with his his worker bees

President Donald Trump on Wednesday blamed his predecessor and defended his sweeping tariffs after new data showed the U.S. economy contracting last quarter, while warning that his promised “boom” will “take a while.”

“This is [former President Joe] Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.




“Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang,’” he claimed.

“This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!” Trump wrote.

The defensive social media post came less than an hour after the release of a U.S. Department of Commerce report showing gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace in the first three months of the year.

It was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022.

Trump’s claim that the negative GDP and subsequent market declines were a result of Biden’s policies is inaccurate, however.




According to the Commerce Department, the GDP figure reflects a wave of imports that companies made in an effort to get ahead of Trump’s promised tariffs. Also weighing on GDP was a drop last quarter in government spending, driven largely by a cut in defense.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-overhang.html

Shocking and new

 

[Chadstroma]

Am I crazy for wanting to buy ACHR?

 

[pecorino]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

 

[General Malaise]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

 

[BassNBrew]

Palantir Alert

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[Sparky Polastri]

This is the math they are basing decisions on...fyi.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-trade-navarro-us-gdp-drop-tariffs-stock-market.html

and we haven't seen the meaningful impacts of import shortages coming in the next couple weeks. A drop in GDP of -.3% (forcast of .8% growth during 1Q was the prediction) seems problematic and that is before seeing import delays/reductions in a few weeks, but they like it apparently.

The accelerated imports in advance of the tariffs apparently factored in the GDP number. I'm definitely anti-tariff, but they aren't wrong on this assessment.

There some stuff that can be mitigated by stock piling, but there's a lot that can't.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

 

[Sand]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

 

[General Malaise]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

 

[General Malaise]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

Boss' son lives in Ft. Lauderdale, 2 miles away from the beach. He's required to carry Flood Insurance - $8,000/year. Egad.

 

[Todem]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

Boss' son lives in Ft. Lauderdale, 2 miles away from the beach. He's required to carry Flood Insurance - $8,000/year. Egad.

That is his windstorm not his flood.

Flood insurance maxs out around $750-800 a year. Strictly rising water coverage. 250K max for any building and 100K max for personal contents due to flood/rising water.

Where we are getting murdered here is our windstorm coverage.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

Boss' son lives in Ft. Lauderdale, 2 miles away from the beach. He's required to carry Flood Insurance - $8,000/year. Egad.

That is his windstorm not his flood.

Flood insurance maxs out around $750-800 a year. Strictly rising water coverage. 250K max for any building and 100K max for personal contents due to flood/rising water.

Where we are getting murdered here is our windstorm coverage.

So if you have a $4M beachhouse and it floods from a hurricane, you only get paid out $350k total?

 

[Todem]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

Boss' son lives in Ft. Lauderdale, 2 miles away from the beach. He's required to carry Flood Insurance - $8,000/year. Egad.

That is his windstorm not his flood.

Flood insurance maxs out around $750-800 a year. Strictly rising water coverage. 250K max for any building and 100K max for personal contents due to flood/rising water.

Where we are getting murdered here is our windstorm coverage.

So if you have a $4M beachhouse and it floods from a hurricane, you only get paid out $350k total?

That is correct sir.

 

[BassNBrew]

Small wager on Meta towards the close.

 

[BassNBrew]

How's this even possible in one minute?

After Hours: Last | 4:01 PM EDT
546.53

-2.47 (-0.45%)
Volume
507,309

 

[Todem]

April is over…….thank you God.

Absolutely wild.

 

[BassNBrew]

April is over…….thank you God.

Absolutely wild.

Not yet....Zuck to close it out at 4:30.

 

[Schmeabs]

MSFT and META up on earnings

 

[pecorino]

Small wager on Meta towards the close.

Bought more SPY July puts at the close.

 

[Sand]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

I'd be more afraid of the insurance prices there.

Boss' son lives in Ft. Lauderdale, 2 miles away from the beach. He's required to carry Flood Insurance - $8,000/year. Egad.

That is his windstorm not his flood.

Flood insurance maxs out around $750-800 a year. Strictly rising water coverage. 250K max for any building and 100K max for personal contents due to flood/rising water.

Where we are getting murdered here is our windstorm coverage.

So if you have a $4M beachhouse and it floods from a hurricane, you only get paid out $350k total?

In most cases most of that money is in the dirt (sand). Unless someone built a monstrosity, in which case they know the deal.

Might be able to get a supplement through Lloyd's of London or similar.

 

[Sand]

April is over…….thank you God.

Absolutely wild.

A green day on a big GDP miss? Yeah, that's nutso.

 

[BassNBrew]

Boom goes the dynamite.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yay moneys.

Got enough now to buy a pairadox like GM was talking about above.

 

[BassNBrew]

Dumped the Meta added today at $536 and $546 at $581. Also trimmed a few shares of MSFT. Been burned several times this week not taking profits after hours. Holding today's Sofi and PLTR shares as they haven't gotten the bump I wanted. From a technical standpoint I won't be adding additional Sofi until it busts through $14. I'll be adding a share or two of PLTR on a daily basis until the charts say to take profits. I don't feel confident enough in a my analysis to gamble more than that.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

 

[BassNBrew]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.

Believe it's similar there. He'd offer a monthly payment asking for part of it to go to closing costs. He can also offer some lump sum as evidence of his commitment etc.

 

[BassNBrew]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.

Believe it's similar there. He'd offer a monthly payment asking for part of it to go to closing costs. He can also offer some lump sum as evidence of his commitment etc.

Just have him check with a real estate attorney. Lots of scammers in that field. The NC Real Estate Commission bans agents from being involved with those.

 

[KGB]

VRT earnings in
up after hours
89.52
+4.14
+(4.85%)

 

[BassNBrew]

On Wednesday, the social networking company boosted its capital expenditure plans by billions of dollars for at least the third consecutive quarter, even as rival Microsoft has eased up slightly on data center plans amid economic uncertainty and concerns that the industry’s feverish spending could result in overcapacity.

Meta said Wednesday that it now expects its 2025 capital expenditure to range between $64 billion and $72 billion, a sharp step up from the $60 billion to $65 billion range it forecast just three months ago, and an astounding sum compared to the $28 billion in annual capex that Meta spent just two years ago in 2023.

 

[BassNBrew]

VRT earnings in
up after hours
89.52
+4.14
+(4.85%)

I believe they were announced April 23. https://investors.vertiv.com/financ...Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference,Eastern Time.

Reading the Microsoft and Meta details, the AI boom is accelerating. Not only is spending increasing, they are making money off it and using it internally. Microsoft now writing 30% of their code with AI IIRC.

 

[BassNBrew]

The White House announced Wednesday night that it signed an economic partnership with Ukraine that includes an agreement on the ownership and extraction of natural resources from the war-torn nation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the agreement, established as the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, will allow the U.S. to “invest alongside Ukraine” to unlock its growth assets and ultimately accelerate its economic recovery.

More from NBC News:

Republicans hit early snags as they start crafting a massive bill for Trump’s agenda

A bipartisan measure to undo Trump’s global tariffs fails in the Senate

Meta executive publicly apologizes to conservative influencer for AI responses



“As the President has said, the United States is committed to helping facilitate the end of this cruel and senseless war. This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Bessent said. “President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine.”

“To be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine,” he added.

Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s economy minister, provided more details on the minerals deal outlined in the agreement, first noting in a post on X that “it is the Ukrainian state that determines what and where to extract” and that “subsoil remains under Ukrainian ownership.”

Ukraine and the U.S. will jointly manage and maintain co-ownership of the investment fund, with neither side holding a dominant vote, Svyrydenko said. It will be financed by new Ukrainian oil, gas and critical mineral licenses, with 50% of all revenue from the licenses going toward the fund.

Svyrydenko indicated in her post that the U.S. will also contribute to the fund, through it is unclear exactly how much.

 

[BassNBrew]

Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

 

[Sand]

Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

In other car news - don't own GM.

GM recalls nearly 600,000 trucks and SUVs over risk of engine failure

The recall follows a January investigation by U.S. auto safety regulators into reports of engine failure in certain GM vehicles.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Redwes25]

Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

Interesting - Tesla is clearly not his focus and if this were any other company and CEO he would have been removed already. At the same time he has done so much there and such a driving force I don’t think they can realistically find a good replacement.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

Interesting - Tesla is clearly not his focus and if this were any other company and CEO he would have been removed already. At the same time he has done so much there and such a driving force I don’t think they can realistically find a good replacement.

Agree. Tesla is Elon. Without him its a way overvalued car company.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.

Believe it's similar there. He'd offer a monthly payment asking for part of it to go to closing costs. He can also offer some lump sum as evidence of his commitment etc.

Just have him check with a real estate attorney. Lots of scammers in that field. The NC Real Estate Commission bans agents from being involved with those.

You mean beyond his loan officer and agent?

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Shares of Tesla fell as much as 3% in overnight trading on Robinhood following reports that its board has opened a search for a chief executive to succeed Elon Musk.

The move comes as the electric vehicle giant’s sales and profits have been declining rapidly.

Interesting - Tesla is clearly not his focus and if this were any other company and CEO he would have been removed already. At the same time he has done so much there and such a driving force I don’t think they can realistically find a good replacement.

Agree. Tesla is Elon. Without him its a way overvalued car company.

With him it seems over valued. Until his "vision" is implemented with the taxi and self driving car stuff, it's just him carrying out the vision of the originators.

 

[pecorino]

On the path to recession as per data from yesterday so, of course, we get a big rebound rally to end the day on Wednesday and looks like we'll open up about 1% Thursday. Big moves up in AMZN, MSFT and META (congrats BNB) in pre-market trading. I'm running out of stuff to sell before battening down the hatches for the summer but today they'll be sold.

 

[BassNBrew]

So this is moderating a bit. To be honest the employment print is more worrisome than the GDP print. GDP taking a small hit with the effect of the govt. juiced spending spigot being turned off was expected (GDP was expected to be -.2% and was -.3%, so pretty much in line with expectations). That employment print isn't great, though.

I'm a little more bearish. I thought GDP expectations were +.4% (Link). My fear is that the federal employment cuts are still to come in the reporting and companies are not going hire into this environment with so much uncertainty.

No mention of the housing market starting to wobble? Because I think that's yet another shoe that's about to drop. Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous. Homes aren't moving. Ruh Roh Raggy.

I haven’t seen this in Pennsylvania. Houses are still selling fast and at high prices.

Just some national news on home sales and mortgages....could be booming in pockets but we got some issues....

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

www.mba.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

Home Sales in March Fell 5.9%, Biggest Drop Since 2022​

Many buyers, spooked by rising economic uncertainty, stayed away from the housing market during the start of the crucial spring season​

Dad is looking for a house because of divorce. He's in Florida. Housing prices have been shifting down for a few months now as they are finalizing details. I guess that's good for him, but sucks that interest rates are likely going to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future after initial thoughts were a couple drops this year.

Unless he's just dying to get into a house through purchase, maybe the best course of action would be to hole-up in a short-term rental (as if those are easy to find) and wait this one out? I think we see home prices dip, especially since the 'buying season' is getting off to a sluggish start.

The FED is in a tough spot with rates. Having your job threatened if you don't lower them is uncomfortable but god help him if he lowers and inflation spikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If the Simpsons taught me anything (and I'd like to believe that they have) it's that this is called a "Paradox".

Funny you should say that. He's looking for someone to do a "rent to own" sort of thing for the next year.

Unless Florida is different, there is no such thing as a "rent to own". Usually it's a lease with an option to buy where you pay some consideration to the owner for the option to buy during a given time frame. In my state, this option has to be recorded for it to be binding.

Believe it's similar there. He'd offer a monthly payment asking for part of it to go to closing costs. He can also offer some lump sum as evidence of his commitment etc.

Just have him check with a real estate attorney. Lots of scammers in that field. The NC Real Estate Commission bans agents from being involved with those.

You mean beyond his loan officer and agent?

I may be misunderstanding the situation if he has these two professionals involved. That said, if he's paying any type of significant consideration for a potential future purchase or paying rent significantly above market rate he should probably run the transaction details by a real estate attorney for his protection.

 

[BassNBrew]

So tempting to dump and take profits. Problem is many of these companies have a pathway to double or triple up over the next 3-5 years. May look into 3x bear funds as a hedge.