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I guess I
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
I don't believe we will have a recession. Slower growth this year yes.
I don't think it is fully baked yet, but investment is frozen, and job cuts will follow. We'll see.
I think I should clarify a bit. I am under the assumption that we see trade deals relatively soon and the effective tariff rate comes down from around 25% to 10-15%. If that doesn't happen then I agree we likely see a recession.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
I don't believe we will have a recession. Slower growth this year yes.
I don't think it is fully baked yet, but investment is frozen, and job cuts will follow. We'll see.
I think I should clarify a bit. I am under the assumption that we see trade deals relatively soon and the effective tariff rate comes down from around 25% to 10-15%. If that doesn't happen then I agree we likely see a recession.
I think that is fair. Things could change.
 
I guess I
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
I don't believe we will have a recession. Slower growth this year yes.
I don't think it is fully baked yet, but investment is frozen, and job cuts will follow. We'll see.
I think I should clarify a bit. I am under the assumption that we see trade deals relatively soon and the effective tariff rate comes down from around 25% to 10-15%. If that doesn't happen then I agree we likely see a recession.
The only trade deal that matters is China. Xi doesn't look like he wants to back down and pay the bully.
 
Here's one I poured into chasing the falling knife from $4.85 to $3.92

Investing.com - Honest Company (NASDAQ: HNST) reported first quarter EPS of $0.030, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.010. Revenue for the quarter came in at $97M versus the consensus estimate of $93.52M.
Up 55 cents afterhours.

The Company ended the first quarter of 2025 with $73 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of $39 million compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily from the exercise of stock options granted prior to the Company’s initial public offering. The Company had no debt on its balance sheet as of March 31, 2025.
 
I love MELI and AXON so so so so so much
AXON was on sale for $500 just a month ago....you know, back when dumb retail was buying up what the smart money was dumping. I'll unloaded 1/2 my position tomorrow if I remember.
 
I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't know why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.

It's funny...I've actually gotten some better results lately on Bing than I have google. Google SERPs are just polluted with ads so what are you clicking on, the company that spent the most money to get you to click? The organic results have been pushed so far down the page, does anyone even get there??
 
I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.

The issue google is having isn't losing share to other search engines. It's search losing share to other (better) means of finding info, which google has been unsuccessful at trying insert itself into.
When I ask ChatGPT they default to a web search that relies on fake google reviews.
 
I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't know why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.

It's funny...I've actually gotten some better results lately on Bing than I have google. Google SERPs are just polluted with ads so what are you clicking on, the company that spent the most money to get you to click? The organic results have been pushed so far down the page, does anyone even get there??


A few months back I updated my google searches with the udm trick (automatically add "&udm=14" to the queries) for all my searches on mobile and desktop browser search bar. It's quite a refreshing change.
 
I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.

The issue google is having isn't losing share to other search engines. It's search losing share to other (better) means of finding info, which google has been unsuccessful at trying insert itself into.
When I ask ChatGPT they default to a web search that relies on fake google reviews.

For what query? I use chatgpt all day long and can't think of it hardly ever just giving web results. It uses web results, it doesn't just give web results. But then it reads them all and figures out the answer and gives it to you, eliminating the most time consuming part.

It's not perfect, but it's only getting better, while search has pretty steadily been going in the opposite direction.

It's turning a 3 step process into a 1 step process, and making it much easier to dive deeper simply and quickly. For instance I have a patch of dead grass in my yard, I asked it how to fix it, it gave me the answer, then I took a photo and it told me what kind of seeds I needed to replace it. Compared to on google I would have searched it, read through a couple reddit threads, probably watched a few youtube videos, then posted on reddit to ask if anyone could identify what type of grass I have so I can buy the right seeds.

And this is before we've even tapped the surface of people training their own GPTs and stuff. For instance you can teach it that you prefer short and sweet answers summarized as succinctly as possible, and it will know that without you having to say it explicitly.

It's like streaming or any other emerging technology. It makes things easier, so people will adopt it. There will always be those vocal people that will shake their fist at the sky and yell "I'll go to Blockbuster to get physical disks until the day I die!", but even they will convert eventually.
 
I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.
:oldunsure:
The love was for the dividend and the price, I believe. There's more, of course, but I think that helped for sure. Two things you really shouldn't key on.

Wasn't @Chadstroma all over this one? I'm curious what his current take is, in all sincerity. I've never owned a share, btw. I remember the whole Ishbia back-story on here. That dude's story sure has soured.

Being in the biz and knowing it so well, he seemed convinced they were the ones to own in the space and maybe they are, I don't know. I believe he felt they were ahead of the game, especially in places like technology. Conversely, competitors like Redfin (was it?), he felt were slipping or whatever you want to call it. I haven't looked, how have they done relative to their peers in the last 5 years? I think it's been about that long.

It's always interesting to hear takes from people actually in an industry. They can be wildly different, perspective and all, especially to what the market sees.
 
I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.
:oldunsure:
The love was for the dividend and the price, I believe. There's more, of course, but I think that helped for sure. Two things you really shouldn't key on.

Wasn't @Chadstroma all over this one? I'm curious what his current take is, in all sincerity. I've never owned a share, btw. I remember the whole Ishbia back-story on here. That dude's story sure has soured.

Being in the biz and knowing it so well, he seemed convinced they were the ones to own in the space and maybe they are, I don't know. I believe he felt they were ahead of the game, especially in places like technology. Conversely, competitors like Redfin (was it?), he felt were slipping or whatever you want to call it. I haven't looked, how have they done relative to their peers in the last 5 years? I think it's been about that long.

It's always interesting to hear takes from people actually in an industry. They can be wildly different, perspective and all, especially to what the market sees.
Completely IMO, but the issue with UWMC at present is macro. Mortgage rates, lumber tariffs, etc.
 
I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.
:oldunsure:
The love was for the dividend and the price, I believe. There's more, of course, but I think that helped for sure. Two things you really shouldn't key on.

Wasn't @Chadstroma all over this one? I'm curious what his current take is, in all sincerity. I've never owned a share, btw. I remember the whole Ishbia back-story on here. That dude's story sure has soured.

Being in the biz and knowing it so well, he seemed convinced they were the ones to own in the space and maybe they are, I don't know. I believe he felt they were ahead of the game, especially in places like technology. Conversely, competitors like Redfin (was it?), he felt were slipping or whatever you want to call it. I haven't looked, how have they done relative to their peers in the last 5 years? I think it's been about that long.

It's always interesting to hear takes from people actually in an industry. They can be wildly different, perspective and all, especially to what the market sees.
The love is likely my fault and it has been a big loss for me. I have held mostly due to the dividend and still believing that the price will go up dramatically in the next refi boom which I will consider selling at that time or maybe just a portion of what I hold. If not for the dividend, I would have sold as the market continues to not understand this stock (I believe).

I still do believe that the market undervalues the company seeing it more like just another mortgage lender when it is more of a tech company that does mortgage lending. Similarly, I see Rocket as a marketing company that does mortgage lending poorly.

It has, as I predicted, become the largest mortgage lender in the country. Mortgage brokers have continued to grow their share of the mortgage industry (roughly 1 in 3 loans in the US is done by a broker) and UWM is still the favorite lender for mortgage brokers. Many of the loans done by brokers goes to UWM. UWM is investing heavily into more tech to become the most efficient servicer in the industry which will allow it to retain servicing of all the loans it does and make money off of that servicing. Even with loan volume down, it continues to increase production year over year. The price decline was tied to the Q loss which greatly missed estimates tied to the loss in value of MSR.

Eventually, I think the market will catch on and value it more aligned to where I think it should be but I am not going to lie and say I have not lost patience.
 
I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.
:oldunsure:
The love was for the dividend and the price, I believe. There's more, of course, but I think that helped for sure. Two things you really shouldn't key on.

Wasn't @Chadstroma all over this one? I'm curious what his current take is, in all sincerity. I've never owned a share, btw. I remember the whole Ishbia back-story on here. That dude's story sure has soured.

Being in the biz and knowing it so well, he seemed convinced they were the ones to own in the space and maybe they are, I don't know. I believe he felt they were ahead of the game, especially in places like technology. Conversely, competitors like Redfin (was it?), he felt were slipping or whatever you want to call it. I haven't looked, how have they done relative to their peers in the last 5 years? I think it's been about that long.

It's always interesting to hear takes from people actually in an industry. They can be wildly different, perspective and all, especially to what the market sees.
Completely IMO, but the issue with UWMC at present is macro. Mortgage rates, lumber tariffs, etc.
That's why the peer comparison is of more interest.
 
BTC appears to be doing its thing at $95,000. Just about 10% short of its record high of $108,000. If it cracks $100,000 then they'll start talking about it on the news and Twitter. My guess is it will reach a record high of about $115,000 to $125,000 before people start taking profits.

People have seen this ride before and know how it goes. Ideally you'd want to buy in a month ago, but with the markets being shaky people are looking for alternate places to put their money and human nature will easily push this thing back to the previous record high of $108,000 and then the fever pitch will launch it to a silly number that will cause a sell off. I know this isn't scientific, but markets are really just feelings anyways. How do people FEEL about the numbers vs what the numbers actually are... you dig?


MSTR is a popular pick if not purchasing some BTC itself and sitting on it.

BTC now up to $97,000. I'm trying to tell you guys something is happening RIGHT NOW.

Would not be surprised if this thing is well over $100,000 this time next week. People have ridden this wave before and the market kind of stinks right now.


We are ripe for a record high. I've been accumulating MSTR. It has a record high of $543. Currently trading at $385.


I assume if BTC hits a record high, then MSTR ought to as well.

We are sitting at $99,000. May as well start treating it like $100,000 because it will probably get there in the next 12 hours.

Peaking at a great time too. Record high is $108,000 and we're only $9,000 off that.


The reason the timing is great is because it's accelerating into the weekend and by Monday morning every news station in America is going to be yammering on about it getting ready to test a new record high.


Then, we as humans will run it up irrationally before we all sell and take our profits. The trick is getting in early so you can be part of the dump. Love this commodity.
Please take this to the Bitcoin thread.
 
BTC appears to be doing its thing at $95,000. Just about 10% short of its record high of $108,000. If it cracks $100,000 then they'll start talking about it on the news and Twitter. My guess is it will reach a record high of about $115,000 to $125,000 before people start taking profits.

People have seen this ride before and know how it goes. Ideally you'd want to buy in a month ago, but with the markets being shaky people are looking for alternate places to put their money and human nature will easily push this thing back to the previous record high of $108,000 and then the fever pitch will launch it to a silly number that will cause a sell off. I know this isn't scientific, but markets are really just feelings anyways. How do people FEEL about the numbers vs what the numbers actually are... you dig?


MSTR is a popular pick if not purchasing some BTC itself and sitting on it.

BTC now up to $97,000. I'm trying to tell you guys something is happening RIGHT NOW.

Would not be surprised if this thing is well over $100,000 this time next week. People have ridden this wave before and the market kind of stinks right now.


We are ripe for a record high. I've been accumulating MSTR. It has a record high of $543. Currently trading at $385.


I assume if BTC hits a record high, then MSTR ought to as well.

We are sitting at $99,000. May as well start treating it like $100,000 because it will probably get there in the next 12 hours.

Peaking at a great time too. Record high is $108,000 and we're only $9,000 off that.


The reason the timing is great is because it's accelerating into the weekend and by Monday morning every news station in America is going to be yammering on about it getting ready to test a new record high.


Then, we as humans will run it up irrationally before we all sell and take our profits. The trick is getting in early so you can be part of the dump. Love this commodity.
Please take this to the Bitcoin thread.

MSTR is a stock. It's in my brokerage account. I'm tipping you off to a stock that is going up heavy green in the AM.

God bless. It's not too late to buy in.
Sorry didn't see that
 
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1 country down. Market up 1%. 170 to go. Ergo, +150% (or so) year incoming.
Tariffs with UK still in place though?
The market had priced in that across the board 10% tariff months ago. It’s the recipercol announcement that caused the shock and awe and created that buying opportunity 4 weeks ago.

This is a fluid situation that as I had said back then will play out thru the summer.
 
I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.
:oldunsure:
The love was for the dividend and the price, I believe. There's more, of course, but I think that helped for sure. Two things you really shouldn't key on.

Wasn't @Chadstroma all over this one? I'm curious what his current take is, in all sincerity. I've never owned a share, btw. I remember the whole Ishbia back-story on here. That dude's story sure has soured.

Being in the biz and knowing it so well, he seemed convinced they were the ones to own in the space and maybe they are, I don't know. I believe he felt they were ahead of the game, especially in places like technology. Conversely, competitors like Redfin (was it?), he felt were slipping or whatever you want to call it. I haven't looked, how have they done relative to their peers in the last 5 years? I think it's been about that long.

It's always interesting to hear takes from people actually in an industry. They can be wildly different, perspective and all, especially to what the market sees.
Completely IMO, but the issue with UWMC at present is macro. Mortgage rates, lumber tariffs, etc.
I trimmed about 40% of my position in January. Interest rates massively reversed course in September and not surprisingly, so did the stock. Rates continued to return to multi-year highs in the leadup to the election and then peaked around the inauguration. Once the talk around tariffs and inflation got serious it became apparent that rates would stay high for the forseeable future and housing market volume is in for a bad year. When rates go up they have to mark to market their mortgage servicing rights which take a hit to value just like a bond does.

I'm still overweight on them but until the macros sort themselves out doubt we'll see much improvement in the stock.
 
It appears that UAMY made just under half a penny a share, which Fidelity is rounding down to nil. Please correct if I missed something.
 
I always struggle about when to take profits and eat the short-term cap gains. Guide me here people.
"Don't fear the tax man, fear the loss man."

--He who shall not be named, but who just celebrated his 20th anniversary of yelling about stocks on TV
Yeah, that's not guidance. I'm thinking of trimming back the MSTR that I bought for $365/share on a gamble because, well, while I like to gamble, maybe it's time to take the 15% gain in 9 days. I don't know crap about bitcoin so...
 
It appears that UAMY made just under half a penny a share, which Fidelity is rounding down to nil. Please correct if I missed something.

I pulled this from Reddit:

AI Generated Summary of earnings

Overview: United States Antimony Corporation reports significant financial growth in Q1 2025, driven by increased revenues and improved operational efficiency.

Financial Results

  • Revenues increased by 128% year-over-year to $7 million.
  • Gross profit rose by 302% to $2.4 million.
  • Net income grew by 269% to $547k.
  • Antimony sales reached $5.9 million, up 140% despite lower sales volume due to logistics delays.
Operating Expenses

  • Operating expenses increased by $954k to $2 million.
  • Noncash stock compensation accounted for $39k of the expenses.
Cash Position

  • Cash position at March 31, 2025, was $18.7 million, up $574k from December 31, 2024.
  • This represents a $6.8 million increase from March 31, 2024.
Future Outlook

  • Anticipated improvements in Q2 2025 due to the restart of the Madero Antimony Smelter.
  • Expansion plans at the Montana smelter expected to increase throughput capacity by over six times.
  • Continued growth projected from increased international shipments and higher pricing for antimony and zeolite products.
 
On another note, UNH just keeps grinding down. Sub $400 now. Their fundamentals look good but the stock keeps getting beaten up.
 
I'm not big shots like you guys, I just started up a small brokerage back in March again, but have dabbled extensively in the past. I'm consolidated down to 5 positions I feel very bullish about at the moment. Most of these I found while lurking this thread.


BJDX (4.71%) - Moonshot cheap stock. Saw it jump significantly off prior news earlier in the year. It develops and markets minimally-invasive Point-of-Care diagnostics tests and devices that provide patients and providers with access to affordable and timely healthcare. It focus is on the infectious disease, inflammation, and oncology markets.

Looking to exit my position on the next sign of positive news. Anywhere from $2.50 to $3.00 is my exit strategy.


MSTR (77.97%) - They own a ton of BTC and with the obvious current boom in BTC price, this is where I've consolidated most of my portfolio. Think we are getting $125,000 to $135,000 BTC in the next 2-3 weeks.


SOXL (13.20%) - Tailed you guys on this one. Got in at $15.92 just before the tariffs and thought I was outsmarting everyone. :lol: Only down 10.12% on this now, but was heavily underwater on this one at a point. I'm holding until this is back to $19.00 to $22.00. Our world runs on semiconductors, which is why that market is so ****ed up to begin with.


TDW (18.54%) - Token energy stock. This is a longterm position for me. Energy market is trailing the rest of the market significantly through Q1. So I gobbled it up. It's an oil company based out of Houston. Houston Oilers if you will. ;) I believe learned of this one from this thread.


WIMI (5.76%) - Another lottery ticket. It's Chinese based so has gotten beat down pretty badly by tariffs. It focuses on holographic cloud services, mainly in vehicle-mounted AR holographic HUD, 3D holographic pulse LiDAR, head-mounted light field holographic equipment, holographic semiconductor, holographic cloud software, holographic car navigation, etc.

I'm close to cutting bait on this one, but with so little invested I've just been holding on for some good news about their technology or tariffs with China.



I dumped my positions that were in the green for DHT, OMI, & ORGO to acquire my current MSTR stock, of which, so far it has outperformed the others so I am happy for that decision for now but would definitely like to get back into those securities once I sell off my MSTR in a few weeks.
So cheap, moonshot, and lottery ticket stocks. And levered, to boot. I like your style. :hifive:

With levered MSTR and it's beta of 4 (yes, ****ing 4!) your portfolio must bounce around like a superball. I put it at about a 99.9% chance you haunt /wallstreeetbets on a regular basis.
 
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