Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

[jwb]

I always struggle about when to take profits and eat the short-term cap gains. Guide me here people.

Today is a good day to sell/pare IMO. I've mostly just been doing it with names I don't really love long term that are rallying for no real reason though.

Quick drop to the close as everyone snatches their winnings off the table

I feel like this happens on every decent day now.

 

[kevzilla]

I always struggle about when to take profits and eat the short-term cap gains. Guide me here people.

"Don't fear the tax man, fear the loss man."

--He who shall not be named, but who just celebrated his 20th anniversary of yelling about stocks on TV

Yeah, that's not guidance. I'm thinking of trimming back the MSTR that I bought for $365/share on a gamble because, well, while I like to gamble, maybe it's time to take the 15% gain in 9 days. I don't know crap about bitcoin so...

Then I have some guidance. Putting your money into something you don't understand is a fool's errand in the long term. So don't give the long term a chance to bite you.

I play the $5 Wheel of Fortune machines in Vegas. Two $20 bills, four spins' worth. If I lose, I walk. If I hit, I walk. I know I'll give it back if I don't.

Sometimes I feel like trades (obviously, not investments) should be viewed similarly. If a volatile instrument has made you some quick money, it probably contains the seeds of its own downfall, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with booking the win. Maybe book just the 15%, if you still have a lust for life. Dude upthread says bitcoin will reach a new high before settling. But you must be nimble, and quick as a hiccup to get out all the profit intact. This is a party where you can't be the last to leave.

 

[Desert_Power]

I always struggle about when to take profits and eat the short-term cap gains. Guide me here people.

"Don't fear the tax man, fear the loss man."

--He who shall not be named, but who just celebrated his 20th anniversary of yelling about stocks on TV

Yeah, that's not guidance. I'm thinking of trimming back the MSTR that I bought for $365/share on a gamble because, well, while I like to gamble, maybe it's time to take the 15% gain in 9 days. I don't know crap about bitcoin so...

Gambling on MSTR really isn't the same as gambling on Bitcoin.

 

[BassNBrew]

My stock investments are in two accounts. Similar strategy for both. One is up over 10% ytd, the other is down 6.5% ytd. Both have 20+ positions and are dominated by Amazon. Both went to about 40% cash to almost fully invested. Amazing that much variance is possible.

 

[The Z Machine]

Sold 3/4 of MSTR at $426. Happy to take some profits home from the craps table. I'll let the other 1/4 ride.

 

[The Z Machine]

For me personally, I see ETFs as long term investments simply due to the risk reduction by spreading out over many companies. There are very few individual companies where I have confidence in their long term plans and value.

 

[Desert_Power]

The type of posting that makes one want to take more risk off the table.

 

[The Z Machine]

It's funny because I did the exact opposite, I deposited into my account and immediately bought more shares of MSTR this morning.


Maybe I bought yours The Z Machine.

Well, they made me like 15% in about a week, so I hope it's the same for you!

 

[dancingbones]

Nibbled at IOVA - biotech cancer drug company - off 45% today on reporting Q1 results miss. Speculative play.

Why Iovance Biotherapeutics Stock Is Crashing Today | The Motley Fool

www.fool.com

 

[General Malaise]

Thanks for TTD boys! Woot!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Thanks for TTD boys! Woot!

I've gotta stop averaging into these things. I was only about 40% of the way into my position. Still a good buy at these levels though I think, still way off the highs.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. There's only two things for certain: there will be a pump

Definitely

 

[identikit]

. There's only two things for certain: there will be a pump

Definitely

 

[Sand]

China USA trade deal reached. No details until tomorrow. Let's see if this pumps the markets a bit.

 

[McBokonon]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

 

[The Z Machine]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

 

[Todem]

China USA trade deal reached. No details until tomorrow. Let's see if this pumps the markets a bit.

Buckle up for tomorrows open.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Entire things feels like a market manipulating dump and pump

 

[Sand]

Entire things feels like a market manipulating dump and pump

Not a chance. Totally feels like a pump and dump.

 

[Todem]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

 

[Sand]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Sell the news. IMO, 95% chance the market is lower at close than at open on Monday.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

What is the deal? Link?

 

[Sand]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

Did so good until that last bit.

 

[Sand]

What is the deal? Link?

No details.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/11/us-china-trade-tariffs-talks.html

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

What is the deal? Link?

No details.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/11/us-china-trade-tariffs-talks.html

So it's the "trust us it's coming soon" playbook? The tariffs have been torture for retail (my wife works at Target HQ), and they can't act on vague promises of progress.

Let's get back to fundamentals. Tell me the tariff % on Chinese imports, and I'll believe the deal is done.

 

[Todem]

What is the deal? Link?

No details.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/11/us-china-trade-tariffs-talks.html

So it's the "trust us it's coming soon" playbook? The tariffs have been torture for retail (my wife works at Target HQ), and they can't act on vague promises of progress.

Let's get back to fundamentals. Tell me the tariff % on Chinese imports, and I'll believe the deal is done.

There is no deal…..they will announce a de-escalation. Trade deals typically take years.

So we simply have to wait to hear the details tomorrow.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

I hope you're right, but I have no idea if what evidence you have or history we can reflect on making you this optimistic. It flies in the face of everything we've seen so far.

 

[The Z Machine]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

I hope you're right, but I have no idea if what evidence you have or history we can reflect on making you this optimistic. It flies in the face of everything we've seen so far.

I could see a ratcheting down to 25% both sides across the board based on a handshake over a framework. Then the Chinese agree to buy $X billions more than they were buying (and then wait it out and never make it to their end of the bargain because they just waited until Trump was gone).

 

[Sparky Polastri]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

I hope you're right, but I have no idea if what evidence you have or history we can reflect on making you this optimistic. It flies in the face of everything we've seen so far.

I could see a ratcheting down to 25% both sides across the board based on a handshake over a framework. Then the Chinese agree to buy $X billions more than they were buying (and then wait it out and never make it to their end of the bargain because they just waited until Trump was gone).

IMO, this is the best we'll get. I don't see anything that will address trade imbalances in a meaningful way though.

 

[Desert_Power]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

I hope you're right, but I have no idea if what evidence you have or history we can reflect on making you this optimistic. It flies in the face of everything we've seen so far.

I could see a ratcheting down to 25% both sides across the board based on a handshake over a framework. Then the Chinese agree to buy $X billions more than they were buying (and then wait it out and never make it to their end of the bargain because they just waited until Trump was gone).

IMO, this is the best we'll get. I don't see anything that will address trade imbalances in a meaningful way though.

A much cheaper dollar will help if the slide continues.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Who’s buying Tesla at $300? They made like a quarter in the last earnings report.

 

[Orange&Blue]

trump signing executive order to reduce drug prices 30-80% and align US price with what rest if the world is paying

I'll avoid the political irony, but drug companies may bleed next week.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114491534347862682

 

[NajehHejan]

SOXL closed Friday at 14.06 after hours. I tried to get in at 14.07 but it opened on think or swim at around 15.20 at 8pm. I’m now trying to get in at 15. It’s at 15.09 right now.

 

[BassNBrew]

In the first week of May 2025, retail investors were actively buying stocks, marking a significant shift from their selling trend in late 2024. Data from JPMorgan indicates that retail traders invested over $2 billion on multiple days during this period, a level achieved only nine times in the past three years, with five occurrences in 2025 alone. Additionally, JPMorgan's proprietary retail sentiment score reached approximately 4.0, the highest on record and surpassing the peak during the 2021 meme-stock frenzy. Wealth Creation Investing+1Business Insider Nederland+1

This surge in retail investment coincided with a recovery in major stock indexes. By May 2, the S&P 500 had recorded its ninth consecutive daily gain, closing above its April 2 level. Wikipedia

In contrast, institutional investors were more cautious during this time. While some institutions increased their stakes in specific stocks like Eli Lilly and GE Vernova, overall, they remained wary due to concerns about market valuations and interest rates. Investor's Business Daily

In summary, the first week of May 2025 saw a notable uptick in retail investor activity, contributing to the market's upward momentum, while institutional investors adopted a more measured approach.

Love seeing retail taking it to the institutions once again.

 

[McBokonon]

trump signing executive order to reduce drug prices 30-80% and align US price with what rest if the world is paying

I'll avoid the political irony, but drug companies may bleed next week.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114491534347862682

Unless there’s some clarity on how they’ll implement this, and I seriously doubt there will be, I might use whatever drop happens from this to get into LLY or something.

 

[NajehHejan]

What is everyone’s projection on % close for S&P and Nasdaq tomorrow?

S&P +1.5% ?

Nasdaq + 2.25% ?

 

[Rirruto]

I'm still short the market. But I love Alphabet only because of Waymo. If the market acts like I suspect it will, I'm loading up on Meta and Alphabet. I hate their core products. Facebook and Google search suck so bad it is not worth talking about. If I could leverage my next 50 years of salary to bet against Facebook and Google search, I would. But Instagram and Waymo are super star products. Conglomerate investing has fully pivoted to tech. You've got to own ****ty products to own great ones now.

Personally think YouTube is the Alphabet superstar.

I haven't looked at their P&L but I imagine that YT ad revenue must be showing continued growth.

Youtube rules also. Great point.

 

[Rirruto]

China USA trade deal reached.

I think this is probably overstating it but whatever, let’s pump these ****ing numbers up!

It would be freaking amazing if there was really a deal in place. Let's hope it's not a pump before a dump.

Ground work for a lot of deescaltion….it will take 12-18 months for a true formal trade deal.

The tariffs got everyone’s attention. It was a blunt force trauma, shock and awe whatever description you want to use.

But it seems like it’s going to work for the long term health of US trade after decades of a ridiculous trade imbalance with several countries.

Glad it’s starting to look like it’s clearly going to work out as we expected. As we posted a month ago history will look back on this violent correction as:

“The Tariff Tantrum”

Let’s get back to fundamentals. And hopefully businesses can now breathe easier and actually begin to plan capital expenditures, hiring etc etc.

The Fed will most likely have much greater clarity and we should see the first cut of 2025 in July.

Moving forward.

Good posting.

I think the absolute pie in the sky scenario is that we tariff China at 10%. The UK non-deal that we call a deal shows that. Do you think that's good for stocks in the short and medium term? I know I'm a doomer, but I don't think that the market has adequately priced in 10% tariffs worldwide. It seems we are reacting to headlines more than facts.

I think I might disagree with you on a cut. We've got many small businesses talking about how they're just now getting shipments that were subject to the initial tariffs. Any reversal is going to take weeks or months to return to normal inventory levels and that's with all American businesses putting orders in at the same time. I don't think I need to talk down to those in this thread about how that's going to increase unemployment and inflation by very definition. Why won't Powell say that he needs to see how the tariff pullback with China impacts the Fed's mandate?

 

[General Malaise]

Gold getting hit on this.

Maybe Todem was right. For once.

 

[BassNBrew]

What a pleasant surprise to wake up to. Potential exists for my single best market day ever. Definitely looking to trim the tech heavy positions and looking for @Todem master list to rebalance.

 

[Monty Burns]

S & P futures up 2.86% right now....

 

[The Z Machine]

I was on a call this morning and there was talk of a shipment that was unloaded (but 145% tariff not yet paid) that they were going to load on another ship back to China, then re-export the same container to the US (all while never unloading the contents) to get the lower tariff rate. Paying for 2x trans-pacific container shipping was cheaper than the tariff, lol.

 

[The Z Machine]

BTW, how can an executive order directly limit the prices being charged by one private company to another? Wouldn't there have to be a law for these price caps? I mean, even for Medicare, I think there would need to be legislative action, no?

 

[BassNBrew]

BTW, how can an executive order directly limit the prices being charged by one private company to another? Wouldn't there have to be a law for these price caps? I mean, even for Medicare, I think there would need to be legislative action, no?

Drug companies will be at the courthouse at 9am.

 

[McBokonon]

there would need to be legislative action, no?

My understanding is that we don’t do these anymore.

 

[Desert_Power]

there would need to be legislative action, no?

My understanding is that we don’t do these anymore.

Still not sure how they can suspend the de minims exemption (they apparently still are)

 

[identikit]

Should be a wild and fun ride today....

 

[fruity pebbles]

Taking a new position in a healthcare etf this week. A lot of these company’s valuations are at 10 year lows.

 

[pecorino]

Taking a new position in a healthcare etf this week. A lot of these company’s valuations are at 10 year lows.

Which do you like? XBI? I like the call.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Taking a new position in a healthcare etf this week. A lot of these company’s valuations are at 10 year lows.

Which do you like? XBI? I like the call.

I use a Fidelity brokerage so FHLC. I want something more broad than biotech. FHLC, VHT and XLV are all basically the same.