Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

[eoMMan]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

AI has been the rising tide.

To power these data centers that a trillion dollars is being spent on, we need to double power supply in four years. Nobody seems to care about this little fact because AI is awesome and stonks go up.

When expectations are eventually cut, the tide goes out.

Then there's that whole inflation thing.

JMHO

AI isn't awesome when it's cutting 400 accounting jobs, imo... https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/report-acrisure-to-fire-nearly-400-employees-in-move-to-ai/

 

[General Malaise]

I do think focus is being paid on power upgrades because Uranium is above $80/Lb again and nuclear is back in vogue for being the source of power needs. Probably shouldn't build new ones near areas that are prone to tsunamis or something.

 

[BassNBrew]

Nice to see green on a down day.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

AI has been the rising tide.

To power these data centers that a trillion dollars is being spent on, we need to double power supply in four years. Nobody seems to care about this little fact because AI is awesome and stonks go up.

When expectations are eventually cut, the tide goes out.

Then there's that whole inflation thing.

JMHO

AI isn't awesome when it's cutting 400 accounting jobs, imo... https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/report-acrisure-to-fire-nearly-400-employees-in-move-to-ai/

I meant in terms of stock prices.

 

[BassNBrew]

Okay, so let's pretend the AI bubble pops and stocks related to AI take a beating, a lot of us are up massively on these names. Like, we could see a 15% correction and still be well into positive territory. I'm not married to these stocks. If we free fall, we sell, go to cash and look for other opportunities. It's not like owning a home during the great recession where you might feel stuck.

Just trying to understand the continuation of calling for a falling of the AI sky when it's done nothing but make you look like Chicken Little along the way.

Or are you suggesting that an AI bubble popping will somehow ruin our economy? Help me understand your long-standing concern here.

AI has been the rising tide.

To power these data centers that a trillion dollars is being spent on, we need to double power supply in four years. Nobody seems to care about this little fact because AI is awesome and stonks go up.

When expectations are eventually cut, the tide goes out.

Then there's that whole inflation thing.

JMHO

AI isn't awesome when it's cutting 400 accounting jobs, imo... https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/report-acrisure-to-fire-nearly-400-employees-in-move-to-ai/

Sucks...but I suspect 3-4 work day weeks are in the future for future generations.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I do think focus is being paid on power upgrades because Uranium is above $80/Lb again and nuclear is back in vogue for being the source of power needs. Probably shouldn't build new ones near areas that are prone to tsunamis or something.

According to the google machine the US has 12,538 utility scale power plants as of 2022. We need to match their output capacity. In four years.

 

[Sand]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

You take it out at the top and buy back in at the bottom. Easy peasy.

 

[guru_007]

The power needs for AI are ludicrous, and the states are so desperate for their revenue, they are making promises that are going to be dangerous in the future.

For instance, and I'm just going off memory here, but META is building a $10B complex in Louisiana. That complex is going to require the same amount of electricity per day as NYC.
I believe this will require them to build 3 completely new power plants in addition to what they currently have, just for this complex.
And while this sounds great for the local economy, it is not adding all that many new jobs, especially after construction is complete. I think the entire complex will have 500 ft employees, and I'm pretty sure META will be supplying the bulk of the high paid positions. The power plants may have a few hundred more employees.

But here is what really rattles me. A lot of the power required is not for the CPU's but rather for cooling. I'm not sure if you all are familiar with Louisiana, but if I wanted to keep a massive complex cool, I would not put it there. Further, the companies that put down these massive complexes (not to just single out META), require something like 100% uptime to get the contract. You know what Louisiana is known for? Hurricanes which cause massive power outages. And you know where the power will get diverted from to keep these AI centers humming? Oh, hospitals, super markets, local businesses and residential areas.
So careful what you wish for here. If it were me, I'd be throwing these AI centers in the Dakota's. Land is plentiful, climate seems ideal, and not too many hurricanes roll through. I dunno though.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

 

[BassNBrew]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

This is a tough one. For example Draganfly is up 463% from when I mentioned it in the thread around June 17. I have trimmed on two occasions so I'm down to 35 shares. Part of me wants to close the position and call it a huge win, part of me wants to free roll the rest and see if it joins my Palantir shares at 1450% gain. I suspect any stops I set would be useless as it would blow right through them.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

You take it out at the top and buy back in at the bottom. Easy peasy.

I had a colleague years ago that said he had a simple market strategy. Buy low, sell lower! lol

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Okay, going to take my second nap of the day. Thank you for keeping this thread interesting folks!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

This is a tough one. For example Draganfly is up 463% from when I mentioned it in the thread around June 17. I have trimmed on two occasions so I'm down to 35 shares. Part of me wants to close the position and call it a huge win, part of me wants to free roll the rest and see if it joins my Palantir shares at 1450% gain. I suspect any stops I set would be useless as it would blow right through them.

Draganfly is a great example because I still own shares of Draganfly I purchased in 2021 at an $85 cost basis.

It got as high as $370.

That means I had it at a 435% gain from my purchase. Eventually not only completely round tripped, but at the bottom actually lost 97.5% on that buy. That's from the buy-in price, not from the peak when it was up 435%. That would represent a 99.994% loss.

Draganfly is a penny stock.

Like last time, everyone has shifted expectations. Penny stocks are "low cap". Low cap stocks are high cap. Medium cap stocks are blue chips.

They aren't. BROS, AXON, APP, PLTR, etc. These things are no less capable of a 90% drop than ZM, DOCU, BABA, RIVN, UPST, or 50 other similar tickers were last time.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

*Checks notebook*

"Buy AMZN, stupid."

*Goes back to looking for Pop-Tarts in the freezer*

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

This is a tough one. For example Draganfly is up 463% from when I mentioned it in the thread around June 17. I have trimmed on two occasions so I'm down to 35 shares. Part of me wants to close the position and call it a huge win, part of me wants to free roll the rest and see if it joins my Palantir shares at 1450% gain. I suspect any stops I set would be useless as it would blow right through them.

Draganfly is a great example because I still own shares of Draganfly I purchased in 2021 at an $85 cost basis.

It got as high as $370.

That means I had it at a 435% gain from my purchase. Eventually not only completely round tripped, but at the bottom actually lost 97.5% on that buy. That's from the buy-in price, not from the peak when it was up 435%. That would represent a 99.994% loss.

Draganfly is a penny stock.

Like last time, everyone has shifted expectations. Penny stocks are "low cap". Low cap stocks are high cap. Medium cap stocks are blue chips.

They aren't. BROS, AXON, APP, PLTR, etc. These things are no less capable of a 90% drop than ZM, DOCU, BABA, RIVN, UPST, or 50 other similar tickers were last time.

Yes, but the management of them through the process matters. When he's saying, "I've trimmed twice and am down to 35 shares, " I'm guessing that's more than cost basis taken. Would it be great to always maximize? Of course. Nobody's going broke free-rolling, though. That's the necessary occasional de-risking.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

List of stocks where I failed to maximize my returns:

All of them, probably

 

[Desert_Power]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

This is a tough one. For example Draganfly is up 463% from when I mentioned it in the thread around June 17. I have trimmed on two occasions so I'm down to 35 shares. Part of me wants to close the position and call it a huge win, part of me wants to free roll the rest and see if it joins my Palantir shares at 1450% gain. I suspect any stops I set would be useless as it would blow right through them.

Draganfly is a great example because I still own shares of Draganfly I purchased in 2021 at an $85 cost basis.

It got as high as $370.

That means I had it at a 435% gain from my purchase. Eventually not only completely round tripped, but at the bottom actually lost 97.5% on that buy. That's from the buy-in price, not from the peak when it was up 435%. That would represent a 99.994% loss.

Draganfly is a penny stock.

Like last time, everyone has shifted expectations. Penny stocks are "low cap". Low cap stocks are high cap. Medium cap stocks are blue chips.

They aren't. BROS, AXON, APP, PLTR, etc. These things are no less capable of a 90% drop than ZM, DOCU, BABA, RIVN, UPST, or 50 other similar tickers were last time.

Great post. And if you have some of those from before to net against gains from now, even better.

Not sure how I feel about AXON being with these others though. It's been a pretty steady build?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

And important to recognize what a stock is and what it is not. Core vs non-core but l-t hold vs speculative

 

[General Malaise]

All I know is that the Tualatin BROS was bumping this morning and grinding this afternoon brobros and you can take that to the drive-thru for a razzleberry scone nutkick iced mocha brochochas.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yes, but the management of them through the process matters. When he's saying, "I've trimmed twice and am down to 35 shares, " I'm guessing that's more than cost basis taken. Would it be great to always maximize? Of course. Nobody's going broke free-rolling, though. That's the necessary occasional de-risking.

Sure, assuming the funds from those sales are going into cash or SPY or something. Not so much if they're just going into a different frothy stock.

Selling BLDP high last time didn't do much good if you just used those funds to buy QS at similar frothiness.

Same thing for all the others. I sold high on RIVN last time but I used some of that to jump into the SHOP party that everyone was having fun on.

Not trying to be a debbie downer, just trying to provide some perspective on these types of names. I had a $30k play account last time that I was totally fine with losing. At the peak I had that sucker up to $300k so even though I walked away net positive overall once the dust finally settled (but still a whole lot less than $300k), some of those huge losses still really hurt.

Just seems like we're hitting that point again where a lot of folks had money that was play money (whatever that may be for each person) that has now turned into real money. And maybe they've thought to themselves "hmmm, if this is going so well with the play money account, maybe I should start moving some of my real holdings into these names". What's the worst that could happen, a 15% drop?

Again, speaking from experience here.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?

It's like deja vu all over again.

If it is, then there still might be years to go yet. Greenspan said that in 12/96. Burst began in 3/00.

Give me MSFT '96 all day.

 

[identikit]

The power needs for AI are ludicrous, and the states are so desperate for their revenue, they are making promises that are going to be dangerous in the future.

For instance, and I'm just going off memory here, but META is building a $10B complex in Louisiana. That complex is going to require the same amount of electricity per day as NYC.
I believe this will require them to build 3 completely new power plants in addition to what they currently have, just for this complex.
And while this sounds great for the local economy, it is not adding all that many new jobs, especially after construction is complete. I think the entire complex will have 500 ft employees, and I'm pretty sure META will be supplying the bulk of the high paid positions. The power plants may have a few hundred more employees.

But here is what really rattles me. A lot of the power required is not for the CPU's but rather for cooling. I'm not sure if you all are familiar with Louisiana, but if I wanted to keep a massive complex cool, I would not put it there. Further, the companies that put down these massive complexes (not to just single out META), require something like 100% uptime to get the contract. You know what Louisiana is known for? Hurricanes which cause massive power outages. And you know where the power will get diverted from to keep these AI centers humming? Oh, hospitals, super markets, local businesses and residential areas.
So careful what you wish for here. If it were me, I'd be throwing these AI centers in the Dakota's. Land is plentiful, climate seems ideal, and not too many hurricanes roll through. I dunno though.

Ridiculously hot in the summer though, the Dakotas

Beyond frigid winters

ETA tornadoes

Likely a better location than the bayou, like you stated

 

[BassNBrew]

Have any of you guys had success with stop losses? I tried one with Fidelity and they asked at least a dozen questions which I eventually figured out.....and it end up canceling at the end of the day

 

[jwb]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

This is what I've been doing. I bought PLTR at $14, more at $17, and more at $30. I was very happy riding that up, but around $150 I sold about 75% of it, for no other reason than it made me uncomfortable. I happily put that money into QQQ instead. I look at this way - I still have enough shares to make a difference if it keeps going, but I'd rather a big chunk of that gain in something a lot less volatile.

 

[jwb]

Have any of you guys had success with stop losses? I tried one with Fidelity and they asked at least a dozen questions which I eventually figured out.....and it end up canceling at the end of the day

The last time I used one my stop loss turned out to be the very bottom.

 

[Sand]

I had a colleague years ago that said he had a simple market strategy. Buy low, sell lower! lol

Foolproof plan - buy an airline.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I had a colleague years ago that said he had a simple market strategy. Buy low, sell lower! lol

Foolproof plan - buy an airline.

Hilarious. I heard on CNBC today Delta beat earnings and the price was up. I thought to myself "tell your sons never buy airlines". Restaurants fall into that category too for me. Yes, there are some good restaurant stocks like Dominoes, Chipotle, but not lately, but over the long term most seem to trade sideways at best.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I guess I just never really understood this “we’re about to crash” or the bubble is about to pop stuff. What are you going to do, take your money out? How would you know when to get back in?

Not sure which conversation you're reading but usually de-risking means moving money out of frothy stuff up 500% based on hopes and dreams and into safer blue chips or ETFs. I haven't heard anyone advising people to get their 401k's out of the SP500 and convert to cash. Most of the talk in this thread the last few months has been about stocks with 90% downside, not 15% is all I'm saying.

It's exactly like it was last time. Lots of play money accounts that have grown into real accounts with the gains, creating a false sense of security around stocks that are not at all safe, with plenty of plausible indicators for that to change that we'd all look back on and say "well, duh" after it happened.

Just offering that out there. 95% of the stuff that's been talked about in here the last 3 months is absolutely capable of doing a full round trip back to lows that seem impossibly far away right now, and most people did not buy in at that bottom.

*Checks notebook*

"Buy AMZN, stupid."

*Goes back to looking for Pop-Tarts in the freezer*

There are some stocks I don't know I'll ever sell like AMZN and AAPL. Should have the certificates buried with me.