Capella
Footballguy
Yes. Just struck me the wrong way and we have cash locked up in other home crap right now.
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Stock Thread (44 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
250 TVIX at $11.07. Just needed a taste
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
It's funny, I read last week that thanks to the new tax bill Bezos will save 800 million annually. I wish Trump would come after me.
siffoin
Footballguy
Ya know. I think we could actually build a system to -you know - have a strategy. I think it could lose less that the "gut".
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm deep in amzn and haven't lost anything. I still own the same amount of shares as I did 2 weeks ago.
The good news is that now it's on sale should I want to buy more!
You only way that I lose is if I sell for less than what I paid ... which I have no intentions on doing.
She'll bounce back sooner or later. I've got 10 years or more before I cash out.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
I'm being serious. I want you to WIN!
Added another 250 for 500 at $10.90. Done unless I can get some in $9's
In the next week or 2 I'll mess around with it
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I get it, thing was down a little over $100 bucks before. My point wasn't "yay, Capella is losing money," it was a simple fact that a lot of things we all like are getting hammered and we have opportunities - I thought when I said I would never short Amazon it would come across like that.
If AMZN just went up forever, it would be tough to keep adding. I was more excited for potential opportunities.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Is TVIX shortable?
Added another 250 for 500 at $10.90. Done unless I can get some in $9's
When you look at it, always hard to pick the spots when it will pop, but typically after the pop, it falls like 40%.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It is https://i.imgur.com/8Scmh8h.png
Cost me $2 to find out, but wow... I'm scared, but wouldn't you think it would be easier to use on the short side. I understand how that comes across as crazy during the recent bouts of volatility, but if this dies down, wouldn't shorting the pops on this thing be a good strategy?
Cost me $2 to find out, but wow... I'm scared, but wouldn't you think it would be easier to use on the short side. I understand how that comes across as crazy during the recent bouts of volatility, but if this dies down, wouldn't shorting the pops on this thing be a good strategy?
siffoin
Footballguy
This concept is important to keep in context.
Opportunity: Buy it today because I think it will be more expensive tomorrow
or
Opportunity: Wait today because I think it will be cheaper tomorrow.
Capella
Footballguy
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Yea, I haven't added anything yet, but I do think a scan across tech is something a prudent investor should be looking at and getting ready to buy the dip - who is well positioned & has gotten hurt during this latest tech route? MSFT is one I've been dying to add, but they just haven't taken it on the chin like others. They're still only 6% off their ATH.
I know you hate FB, I'm on the opposite side of that - in a few years, I think this will be a blip on the radar. I'd like to see it lose another $15-$20 a share though... at those levels, I think they'd become attractive to both value & growth funds.
I don't think this route is over (my guess is as good as anyones, so with a grain of salt) - I feel we need to see that final wave of panic induced selling, it doesn't feel like we've gotten there yet.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just FWIW, things I have on my radar outside of any we've already discussed:
WDC, GD, HEI, MSFT, BABA, JPM/BAC, SHOP, SBUX, COST, DWDP (a little scared of this one, but I would like it at the right price), WMT.
WDC, GD, HEI, MSFT, BABA, JPM/BAC, SHOP, SBUX, COST, DWDP (a little scared of this one, but I would like it at the right price), WMT.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
SHOP is down 20% in a week - Citron Research targeted them for a short and the timing was impeccable!
I've been talking about them since $70 in here when I was looking for a dip, they topped out last week at $153
I've been talking about them since $70 in here when I was looking for a dip, they topped out last week at $153
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siffoin
Footballguy
The question you might want to ask is: What is the technical damage caused by $FB dropping another $20? How long does it take to drop that $20?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Yea, I've looked at a few charts on them, they've already dropped under 50/100/200 MA's, $137 is their 52 week low too.
What else would you be looking at? From a chart perspective, I don't see anything to like here...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Also, just looking at moving averages, Nasdaq is about 6,740, around another 200 points, that is also pretty close to the last correction low.
If I was looking to take on new tech positions, I'd think that area offers great R/R on entry.
If I was looking to take on new tech positions, I'd think that area offers great R/R on entry.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
Maybe see some parallels with SDOW, SPXU, UVXY, VIXY and VIX ?
I'm getting almost the same returns I've been seeing with TVIX, but the swings are not as scary. I'm up huge wiping out a lot of losses, but figuring I need to plan an exit point at some point.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I noted the Nasdaq 200DMA above - if we get there, it also could mark a double bottom...
Id absolutely think that would be the time to get out.
cosjobs
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
Well if you were to go back to the start of FB bull run beginning in July 2013 to the peak in Jan 2018. $130ish would represent approx 38.2% Fib Retracement. Would certainly be a major level of support that technical traders would look at. So that would be a start.
Another is time. If FB dropped $20 next week that might be a ST buy level with resistance in the $170 area. For a great trade.
In the bigger context...if the overall market is bullish...well then $130ish might be a great buy. If FB waffles around for a couple of months lets sat between $150-$180 and the market sees lower lows and lower highs and rolls over the major trend. Well FB would likely get punched sooner and harder. Again--predictin' the future is a tough business to be in. But nearly all the time I'm mostly correct. With that said I'd suggest no one follow me into the $FB short. I have a longer time horizon and plan to rope a dope if necessary. Small risk for a bigger payoff. If I'm wrong...I'll add it to my encyclopedia on bad decisions and try to learn from it.
In general it's better to buy a stock near it's high and in a strong bull trend...than one that has rolled over and in a bear trend.
cosjobs
Footballguy
These are all betting against the market, wouldn't hitting the double bottom open the gates for a further slide?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
No a double bottom (if it held) would be bullish. Couple that in with basically testing and holding the 200DMA twice, you'd basically have every technical buyer stepping in.
For you betting against the market, you'd want to get out of the way there.
I'd differ this to @siffoin, but I think my assessment is fairly accurate and from an R/R perspective marks a great entry point.
cosjobs
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Well if it didn't hold, this could map back to what Siff was saying and possibly the start of a longer trend flip - to me, a lot of the bullish backdrop narrative is still in place, I think buyers would step in there.
The thing I hate about AMZN, especially being a market leader is it now has the orange bozo's cloud hanging over it. Nonetheless, still a fan.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Curious to see how we close the last 15 minutes today - if tech rolls over, I'm basically 99% confident a 200 DMA test is coming within the next few sessions.
cosjobs
Footballguy
wow. PVH shattered earning and on a big after hours uptick
don't know whether to sell now or tomorrow
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Looked at charts & did some reading for a few hours tonight.
I like how a lot of this is being set up right now, I just don’t think we’ve hit the end of the aggressive selling we’ve seen for the last two weeks. Market is closed Friday, so I’ve been looking at a game plan.
Trying to figure out what causes the final washout, here’s what I think will do it; China news/tariffs. That has been swept under the rug this week... Think we’ll get some news next week, it’ll all be part of the negotiation, but it will cause the other shoe to drop. If that does happen, I’ve got a list I’m buying on that fear that’s ready to go:
MSFT AMZN NVDA JPM NFLX SHOP FB BA GD TVIX (possibly, need to think a little more about this one... Would be a short position, and small. BUT, if you short this near the end of this route, it’s 50% gain relatively quickly... & again, small position)
If timed even half decently, I think the above group can get me 20% within 12 months.
I’ve got a few plans in place, this is the one I’m hoping on.
I like how a lot of this is being set up right now, I just don’t think we’ve hit the end of the aggressive selling we’ve seen for the last two weeks. Market is closed Friday, so I’ve been looking at a game plan.
Trying to figure out what causes the final washout, here’s what I think will do it; China news/tariffs. That has been swept under the rug this week... Think we’ll get some news next week, it’ll all be part of the negotiation, but it will cause the other shoe to drop. If that does happen, I’ve got a list I’m buying on that fear that’s ready to go:
MSFT AMZN NVDA JPM NFLX SHOP FB BA GD TVIX (possibly, need to think a little more about this one... Would be a short position, and small. BUT, if you short this near the end of this route, it’s 50% gain relatively quickly... & again, small position)
If timed even half decently, I think the above group can get me 20% within 12 months.
I’ve got a few plans in place, this is the one I’m hoping on.
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Oof...that brings back some memories.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Only other thing that would scare me is an overheated NFP (I think that report drops Next Friday).
Prob see a relief rally today, but I’m not buying into the 3 day weekend. We’re like 3.5-4% away from the 200DMA after some severe volatility, just feel like we need to tag it in the near future.
Prob see a relief rally today, but I’m not buying into the 3 day weekend. We’re like 3.5-4% away from the 200DMA after some severe volatility, just feel like we need to tag it in the near future.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/trump-goes-after-amazon-on-twitter-again.html
Tough to get enthused about AMZN with this ####### hanging a cloud over them.
Tough to get enthused about AMZN with this ####### hanging a cloud over them.
culdeus
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Luckily, my investment is long term, can only sell a few shares now. Trump amazes me every day. As a republican I can honestly say that I wish Hillary had won. Trump legitimately scares me on what he could do. It’s like he’s a school yard bully who can’t stand people who aren’t kissing his ###. He’s a complete and utter buffoon.fantasycurse42 said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Disagree completely. Lots of white males in his original base who I’m pretty sure have a lot in the market. That said his current base versus his base at the election are completely different. I actually didn’t vote because while I didn’t want Hillary, I couldn’t in good conscience vote Trump.
You guys are thinking about the nuts. There’s a lot of we don’t want Hillary in the republican base that likely didn’t think he’d be this bad. I didn’t vote for the guy but I didn’t think he’d actually be the cartoon character he played on Celebrity Apprentice.
15 months basically shows it had nothing to do with him. It was just the economy doing better globally. Amazing to me how non-Presidential he can be. Bezos doesn’t support him so he’s specifically targeting the company. As if Walmart hadn’t already destroyed the mom and pop shops. He’s a loon, just completely out of touch and he’s the kid who whines until he gets his way. I can’t wait until he’s gone.DJIA the day Trump took office - 19,795
DJIA right now - 23,971
~17.5% increase over 15 months.
RUSF18
Footballguy
The market was happy to have Trump in office because it knew tax reform was likely and would strongly benefit equity prices. So put a marker down for when that went through and note the % change there.DJIA the day Trump took office - 19,795
DJIA right now - 23,971
~17.5% increase over 15 months.
Then take a look at what happens when Trump started opening his ####### mouth about company/industry/CEO XYZ shortly after because he felt he had some swagger back after getting the #### kicked out of him everywhere else. Note the % change there.
