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Insoxicated
I'd love all the info you're comfortable sharing, GB.
ALSO, If not TAIL, I know I'm not alone in looking for your leans in this late-crash (but still early "economic/pandemic" market.
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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
ALSO, If not TAIL, I know I'm not alone in looking for your leans in this late-crash (but still early "economic/pandemic" market.
Not yet. Most of the stocks I bought Monday are lower than when I bought, but I also sold a stock to fund most of that and it’s down way more so I sort of feel good? I definitely feel good about the price I’ll end up paying, which hopefully I’ll be around to see where it is in 5-10 years!
I think I may even close up my son’s savings accounts. Just gift money, they didn’t spend, over the years. I’m thinking this may be a great opportunity to buy a few top stocks for long term rather than earn basically nothing. Not a lot of money but hey, some of these high growth stocks are buried right now.
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The General
Footballguy
I do recall them saying 'don't sell' back in February which is pretty much a sell signal.
The General
Footballguy
It's going to get worse but getting to the point where I am just about to buy a bunch of the companies like Goog, AAPL, DIS, some bank, Marriott and sit on it.
I'm not a day trader type and while I like watching it go up and down I'm not going to make a bunch of moves.
Because of reading in here and other places I did sell about 1/3 of my stuff awhile back and still have 1/4 sitting in cash and I think I'll just pull the trigger soon in a week so I can stop paying attention.
xulf
Footballguy
BroadwayG
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Todem
Footballguy
IMO once we breech 20% off thr all time highs on the S7P and Dow we will see some capitulation and even more violent selling. I am being very patient. We are still too early in this vicious news cycle with the virus.
Once I see 23 plus % off the high's I am going to start deploying the powder I have. I feel like 25-30% off the highs we will form a bottom and be range bound till this thing is behind us. I fully expect a V shaped recovery come year end.
Todem
Footballguy
That is a strong signal. I don't disagree with it. That is why I am being patient. Too much bad news to come which will cause retail investors to start throwing in the proverbial "towel".
The General
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
The news cycle will continue to be negative until there is less uncertainty IMHO.
I would not be buying yet unless you have a horizon of at least 2 years.
Key Events to Look For
*European Banks inlcuding Italy(potentially others) Prove Stable
*US Healthcare system overwhelmed or is able to handle volume
*the politics forum solves the world's problems
I would not be buying yet unless you have a horizon of at least 2 years.
Key Events to Look For
*European Banks inlcuding Italy(potentially others) Prove Stable
*US Healthcare system overwhelmed or is able to handle volume
*the politics forum solves the world's problems
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Not a launch but a little nibble at BA. Trading at 200 per share, down 50% from its 52-week high and off about 40% from one month ago. Pays a 3% dividend and it's a long term hold. If it drops another 10%, I'd double my position.
The General
Footballguy
Your info has been really helpful and great to read, thanks.
You are staying away from buying anything even stuff like Marriott, Delta, Banks that have gotten pummeled until the 25-30 number hits the DOW/Nasqaq?
Todem
Footballguy
I like JPM at these levels. That is the only bank on my shopping list.
Delta (DAL) is the only airlines I am considering adding (as a trade) much later when there are signs the virus is getting behind us. The only cruise line that I really like is CCL. Very strong balance sheet. Financially sound. The entire cruise industry is in big trouble (captain obvious) but Carvinval has the financial strength to come out of this strong when it rebounds.
Here is my shopping list when I deploy the powder:
AAPL
CAT
CSCO
GOOGL
DEO
TGT
PFE
DIS
BA
EMR
SBUX
AEP
GLPI
STWD
MSFT
GIS
JPM
AMZN
T
VZ
PEO - Big Oil
CCL - Cruiselines
DAL - Airlines
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
So, you're targeting the leaders in their industries, makes sense. Any opinion on EPR or VTR?
Todem
Footballguy
There is an old saying my father told me when I was 17 and watching my very first stock I bought back in 1987 lose 30% on black Monday.
He said son "when the police come and raid the brothel, they arrest all the pretty ones too".
So yes...when you see this kind of indiscriminate selling......buy all the hottest/high quality ones you can.
Here are quick and dirties on the positions you mentioned (as I do not track nor follow those)
EPR - Obviously many high risk properties in light of the virus. Debt to capitol 50.8% Net margins are just shy of 31% and it pays a 9.3% at this price level. I would be neutral on it. And view this as a long term buying opportunity as it is down (if this price holds today) 39% YTD. Despite that it's PE is still almost 20...so it is not a super value. But If you like them this is a good price here. But it will get worse as the news keeps coming out so wait a little longer.
VTR - I do not like much at all. Weak fundamentals. And over valued even here. Low net margins, no dividend growth low return on equity. I would pass this one outright.
Todem
Footballguy
Probably not. But we are almost at 20% off the high. When that happens...expect selling to accelerate more.
I believe 2750 or thereabouts is a support. Broach that and it’s another 10% down, I think.
Todem
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I like your dad's expression, it's fitting.
Also, I appreciate your insight with EPR and VTR.
Todem
Footballguy
Yep....but so much more news to come. I don't think it can keep bouncing. We are getting close.....almost there.
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ditka...mike ditka
Footballguy
What are peoples thoughts on Oil/energy? Im sitting on about 50k in a marco allocation fund in my 401k. Thinking of dumping it and buying something tied to the oil market looking for a quick rebound in the next few months. Thoughts? Recommendations on a fund?
Penguin
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t know about the rest of these guys but I’m planning to go all in soon with everything I still have in cash. Bargain basement pricing for a lot of stocks. Sucks that I wasn’t smart enough to go all cash but my cash position keeps going up since my stocks are blowing up.
The General
Footballguy
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Todem
Footballguy
Instead of trying to hit homeruns...look to hit singles and doubles. I would not get crazy with putting money into energy. I would diversify.
Of that 50K......no more than 2500 into energy (5%) it might be dead money for a little while. But I simply can't endorse energy as a single sleeve. YOu will get big oil exposure in a large value fund.
Look to Small cap growth and value stocks, emerging markets stocks and domestic large caps both growth and value. Mid Cap and Real Estate.
I would do something like this if you are going to go 100% equity with that 50K
12,500 Large Growth 25%
12,500 Large Value 25%
7500 Mid Cap Growth
5000 Small Growth 10%
5000 Small Value 10%
2500 Emerging Market Stocks 5%
5000 Global Real Estate 10%
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McBokonon
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
ditka...mike ditka
Footballguy
Thank you, @todem, very sound advice given the limited details I gave (my mistake). The 50k is actually a current 12.5% allocation I have in the portfolio, with the rest of the portfolio pretty closely balanced to what you are suggesting above (maybe a little riskier, more small/intl, less large). Im 38, and probably shouldnt have put the global macro in there a few years back, and now was probably acting irrationally in looking to buy something beaten down, hope for a quick bounce, then sell.
I've been charting all my available funds daily to see which ones are performing the best on up days and down days. Everyone should be doing this and preparing to move their $ into the best performing ones, then making adjustments as the weeks go by.
If you did not get out & were in less risky funds, you should be formulating the plan to move ALL that $ into high risk as it will bounce huge at the start of the recovery as everyone pours into them. No one should be just sitting there waiting to get back to even.
If you did not get out & were in less risky funds, you should be formulating the plan to move ALL that $ into high risk as it will bounce huge at the start of the recovery as everyone pours into them. No one should be just sitting there waiting to get back to even.
ditka...mike ditka
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
We keep bouncing off that 20% off that high level. I am still not convinced we have bottomed. Something about another weekend of news...and next week we very well may make the bottom or close to it. We almost seem range bound right now.
I am tempted to nibble......going to look at what I can see that is simply stupid cheap.
I am tempted to nibble......going to look at what I can see that is simply stupid cheap.
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Disagree with your first paragraph. The S&P busted through a support this afternoon and promptly dropped another almost 2%. I'll admit, though, that I have been nibbling and am starting to feel a bit short on cash. This thing may be headed to 2500.
Todem
Footballguy
Agree...hence why I am having extreme restraint right now.
Would not surprise me to see some buying heading into the last 10-15 minutes.
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