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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
My take is that this medical event will end quickly but not for another four weeks, plus or minus. Look at Wuhan: they are ready to have folks return to work. In our favor, we have warm weather arriving. On the other hand, we didn’t act to contain quickly enough. I think the S&P will drop down to the 2500 level which is about 10% more (depending if you count futures). That’s 30% total, which is close to what I read up-thread. My point is that it’ll end quickly but the economic effects will linger. The bounce will be epic so I’m buying on the way down, a little bit for every 100 point drop.
Todem
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Today we are hitting some capitulation. But I agree with pecorino. Probably 30% is the floor. It might get there...it might not. But today I start buying for the long term. The mass hysteria is starting to peak. Lot’s of nibbles today. Not all in yet...but we start deploying powder today. The speed of the market has changed quite a bit from 2008. Amazing but true.
The rebound will be epic. And it will be fast when it starts to happen. Once the summer heat hits.....cases go away like fart in the wind and the wonderful hyperbole media we have to deal with can’t say the word “Coronovirus” anymore every freaking waking minute of the day.....life will return. There will be 2-3 quarter earnings effects on industry......so a mild earning recession with great future guidance will drive the market much higher moving forward.
None ever talks abut H1N1. Remember that? Yeah I did not think so. Back between 2009 and 2010
60.8 million US Cases
22,469 deaths
Panic level - totally chill.
This is why I am really amazed what is going on right now.
Boeing is acting like they will never sell another plane again. There are a lot of great stocks at bargain bin prices.....let’s get to work today.
The rebound will be epic. And it will be fast when it starts to happen. Once the summer heat hits.....cases go away like fart in the wind and the wonderful hyperbole media we have to deal with can’t say the word “Coronovirus” anymore every freaking waking minute of the day.....life will return. There will be 2-3 quarter earnings effects on industry......so a mild earning recession with great future guidance will drive the market much higher moving forward.
None ever talks abut H1N1. Remember that? Yeah I did not think so. Back between 2009 and 2010
60.8 million US Cases
22,469 deaths
Panic level - totally chill.
This is why I am really amazed what is going on right now.
Boeing is acting like they will never sell another plane again. There are a lot of great stocks at bargain bin prices.....let’s get to work today.
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eaganwildcats
Footballguy
This is me. 20+ to retirement believe fairly strongly I'll be better off in the long run just continuing to set & forget with my main portfolio(s). Have been toying with my play money account though - seriously considering jumping in levered (UPRO or the like). If we believe the rebound is going to happen might as well go bigsiffoin said:I need to think on this one. I'm a trend follower - that means I look at fundamentals to tell me WHAT to buy, but technical analysis on WHEN to buy it. I'm reading all the posts here thinking WTF...I thought everyone was a "time in the market" kind of guy. When did everyone become market timers?
I will say from a trend perspective on daily charts many positions quoted here look dangerous. With that said the LT market is bullish and might still take some months to fully roll over. Typically, that means at some point in the future we could see a significant bounce. How high? $SPY 300's not out of the picture. Now I don't know the future. In my experience of analyzing many many trends such a move would be common, typical and highly probable. Now it's possible I'm wrong just as it's possible that Covid-19 mutates and turns half of you guys into zombies and I'll be riding my motorcicle with a crossbow taking you out
I do have some early indications that the LT trend is potentially rolling over, but again - there should be time to figure that all out. 10 year trends do not flip in 1 month in my experience. However, I reserve the right to be wrong.
Todem
Footballguy
I am also a time in the market guy. But I am also paid to protect on the downside and capitalize on events such as this. Hence the 25% cash I built over a week ago and also was sitting on from tax harvesting sales at year end 2019.This is me. 20+ to retirement believe fairly strongly I'll be better off in the long run just continuing to set & forget with my main portfolio(s). Have been toying with my play money account though - seriously considering jumping in levered (UPRO or the like). If we believe the rebound is going to happen might as well go big
Absolutely sit tight if you are a long term investor.
I was down to 10-15% or so cash, but I’m betting that’s 20% today now. I wish I had just sold on Monday, but I moved my stock sold into other companies I liked more. This looks crazy now. Everyone, whether they’re a cruise line or a cloud computing stock is just getting their ### handed to them, regardless if they just posted amazing earnings and future guidance or downgraded their earnings.
If you can weather this then I do think this will be like 2008 where people got so scarred that they missed the years of recovery that blew past the highs before the crash.
I’m going to likely buy some of the same stocks I bought on Monday and a bit more but I’m not going to plow everything in yet. I’m not sure when the recovery will actually start.
Wait, what? Payroll tax holiday? Meaning they are talking about suspending Federal income tax?
Shula-holic
Footballguy
There will be companies in my industry who won't survive. It's the worst day I had in my business' history. From strictly a lost margin standpoint we lost more than we did back on 9/11. Of course we were a much smaller company back then so it's not as bad on a percentage basis. Stayed up all night working on impairments.Penguin said:
Certainly not picking on you or BA specifically, just wanted to issue a word of caution about dividends- for starters, it isn't "free money" like many seem to think, every time a company pays out a dividend it drops the stock price by the same amount. More importantly, even if it was it really isn't going to do anything to protect you during market routs like this. I mean, BA dropped by more than their annual dividend after you bought it yesterday alone, and is looking to open down another ~3 1/2 YEARS worth of dividends this a.m.
Again, not calling you out at all, just wanted to point out that dividends should be way down on the list of reasons to buy when trying to catch a falling knife.
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No. There was talk about a temporary lowering or elimination of payroll taxes (Medicare and SS), not federal income tax. Nothing has been formally announced yet though. It's all just talk.
Part of the reason the market is tanking today is because they wanted the President to announce this last night but he didnt.
CR69
Footballguy
Just the 6.2% tax for Social Security and Medicare. Then those programs will be gutted later when they're "out of money" imo.
Hot damn, thought I was going to be a baller for the rest of the year. 6.2% ain’t bad though. Let’s go Trump!
GoBirds
Footballguy
I’m going to add some to the 529’s and my target date fund this morning, not going all in but putting some chunks to work I’ve had in cash. I think there’s more pain to come but I’m no expert and can’t always trade with my work schedule so try to average in. Anyone else buying anything?
Also going to grab Amazon on dips with the new age of social distancing.
Also going to grab Amazon on dips with the new age of social distancing.
Just my thoughts here, but today will be a nightmare, absolute panic selling. Pretty sure there will be at least one halt to the markets, and probably two.
The payroll tax wouldn't do much of anything, imho. HOWEVER, the presser was an unmitigated disaster just proving that the federal government has no idea wtf it is doing. Sorry, non-political, just truth.
Market is way oversold, but that doesn't mean you should be buying or trying to time a bottom. It's irrational at this point. To put a mild comparison with recent events, no one knows the actual mortality rate with the covid19 because we don't have any idea how many people actually have it. There could be 1,000, 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 in the U.S. alone. So, no one knows what the actual stock price on any given security should be because the price is based on earnings stream, both current and future. And the future earnings are in complete limbo. People saying stocks are cheap, well how can they say that? If a stock, say AAPL was trading at $300 with $15 eps, your PE is at 20. If AAPL is at $200 now but eps could be $5, which would put the PE at 40, so is that cheap?
Any way, as I posted a few pages back, I don't think you can really make any solid decisions until we get some good news. Flattening of the spread of the virus. A real government response (stopping travel from Europe was
and will have no effect). Credit markets stabilizing. Or at least some word or game plan as to how a vaccine or preventative care will be put into immediate effect. until that time, no one knows anything.
The payroll tax wouldn't do much of anything, imho. HOWEVER, the presser was an unmitigated disaster just proving that the federal government has no idea wtf it is doing. Sorry, non-political, just truth.
Market is way oversold, but that doesn't mean you should be buying or trying to time a bottom. It's irrational at this point. To put a mild comparison with recent events, no one knows the actual mortality rate with the covid19 because we don't have any idea how many people actually have it. There could be 1,000, 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 in the U.S. alone. So, no one knows what the actual stock price on any given security should be because the price is based on earnings stream, both current and future. And the future earnings are in complete limbo. People saying stocks are cheap, well how can they say that? If a stock, say AAPL was trading at $300 with $15 eps, your PE is at 20. If AAPL is at $200 now but eps could be $5, which would put the PE at 40, so is that cheap?
Any way, as I posted a few pages back, I don't think you can really make any solid decisions until we get some good news. Flattening of the spread of the virus. A real government response (stopping travel from Europe was
and will have no effect). Credit markets stabilizing. Or at least some word or game plan as to how a vaccine or preventative care will be put into immediate effect. until that time, no one knows anything.I don’t think you’re example is correct. Apple would 100% be cheap at $200. One or two bad quarters and then they are back at normal earnings. Most of us in here aren’t market timers. The folks who sold did great. I was dumb and rode it out, but my horizon isn’t this year, it’s 10-15 years. The market looks forward, all Apple needs to say is that their guidance is back to normal and they shoot back up even if the PE is still high at that point including the bad quarters.Just my thoughts here, but today will be a nightmare, absolute panic selling. Pretty sure there will be at least one halt to the markets, and probably two.
The payroll tax wouldn't do much of anything, imho. HOWEVER, the presser was an unmitigated disaster just proving that the federal government has no idea wtf it is doing. Sorry, non-political, just truth.
Market is way oversold, but that doesn't mean you should be buying or trying to time a bottom. It's irrational at this point. To put a mild comparison with recent events, no one knows the actual mortality rate with the covid19 because we don't have any idea how many people actually have it. There could be 1,000, 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 in the U.S. alone. So, no one knows what the actual stock price on any given security should be because the price is based on earnings stream, both current and future. And the future earnings are in complete limbo. People saying stocks are cheap, well how can they say that? If a stock, say AAPL was trading at $300 with $15 eps, your PE is at 20. If AAPL is at $200 now but eps could be $5, which would put the PE at 40, so is that cheap?
Any way, as I posted a few pages back, I don't think you can really make any solid decisions until we get some good news. Flattening of the spread of the virus. A real government response (stopping travel from Europe was
It’s just like everything else. People have such short term memories that once things are contained or past, it’s like they never happened.
Oh, the speech last night was awful. Patting yourself on the back for not moving quick enough is a bad look.
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The General
Footballguy
Circuit breaker hit.
I find the use of this term interesting, because as an electrician, if a breaker keeps getting tripped, something is wrong and has to be fixed, otherwise the building could burn down. We need to fix the problem or it'll keep getting worse.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Panic and anticipation of GDP hit due to economic freeze out for 1-2 quarters.
Time heals all wounds
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Excellent idea. Jack it up, lower it later. Going to do the same. I'll end up putting in the same amount for the year.
CCL and Royal both have close to $10B in long-term debt and very little cash on hand. NCL has about $6B - about 2.5x their market cap.
I haven't done any deep research and this is one layperson's uninformed opinion, but ... if we go full Italy in this country, there's a very real possibility those shares could go to zero, IMO.
No offense taken and a good PSA. I’m aware how dividends and stock prices work. I like dividend stocks for my long term holds. I plan to buy more BA as I only took one third of the position I’m interested in. Not trying to time the bottom as that’s a fool’s game but I will dollar cost average when the price is attractive.
They have to and then when the next level hits, they stop it again for 15 minutes.
Under market rules, circuit breakers kick in at three thresholds:
Level 1: A drop of 7% from the prior day's closing price of the S&P 500 triggers a 15-minute trading halt. Trading is not halted if the drop occurs at or after 3:25 p.m. ET.
Level 2: A drop of 13% triggers a 15-minute halt. Trading is not halted if the drop occurs at or after 3:25 p.m. ET.
Level 3: A drop of 20% triggers a halt for the rest of the trading day, and trading resumes the following day.
The General
Footballguy
Foosball God
Foos
So, what's a good online brokerage? I'd actually like to be ready to buy at some point here.
beef
Footballguy
Jayrok
Footballguy
RCL and CCL look attractive right now and I think in due time they'll both be back in business. People love their cruises. But the virus concerns are not the only concern with owning a cruise line stock. As attractive as the prices are today, think of the additional hit they'll take on when they announce 1st quarter earnings (lack thereof) and uncertain guidance for instance.
Ships are floating petri dishes at the moment. Whether it's true or not doesn't matter. Perception of the masses.
I think airlines may be a safer bet this spring/summer.
Yeah, I knew you did, more of a PSA for others who read your posts. I had a similar conversation during the last market bloodbath regarding Apple- buy the company if you believe in it long term, not because of a dividend that is a fraction of the daily move (at the time).
cosjobs
Footballguy
This is not meant as political. It is cautionary of investment advice and trust of the administration.
The market was at 27,960 when chief White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow suggested that people “buy the dip.”
Anyone who listened has lost 26% in 3 weeks. link to all administration stock tips
If anything, I would recommend fading financial advice from the WH.
The market was at 27,960 when chief White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow suggested that people “buy the dip.”
Anyone who listened has lost 26% in 3 weeks. link to all administration stock tips
If anything, I would recommend fading financial advice from the WH.
And within one day, we have arrived at another support level of the S&P, 2500. I think that’s the last dam to break before another 20% drop. I’ve been overly optimistic all along, so I’ll keep hoping that it holds today and that maybe we get government intervention as a catalyst.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I've shed 20,000 shares of CYDY in the past three weeks. I moved it all into TVIX, UVXY, and LABD.
I still believe in CYDY, but this will provide me lots and lots of cash to buy back in when it has a chance to move again.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
All those bond funds that were gave me 25% in the previous three weeks are down about 8% in last 3 days. Moved out 80% into an Interest Income Fund. Supposedly the safeest, most stable (and low yielding) in my 401K.
I could not find an all cash option. Will call them this afternoon.
I could not find an all cash option. Will call them this afternoon.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The action in gold and silver seem to indicate that liquidity might not be as solid as we thought. People are selling what they can sell—not what they want to sell.
beef
Footballguy
I so want to get back in, but am holding off too. I'm not trying to predict the bottom or get the best buy-in. I'm really more interested in getting back in when the volatility slows and we have a better handle on CV. Not sure if that's the best strategy or not.
