Todem
Footballguy
The current market conditions are a short seller and day traders buffett.Historically that is the case. However take a look at the options of QQQ or SPY. They are all over the place instead of the usual bell curve. I can see us rally over days, sucking in bulls buying calls and then back to the selloff. Hard to say since this setup is really rare. Last time was really 2008-2009.
The swings will be violent until we get clarity that we are out of the woods with this virus. The market will rally hard long before the “economic news’ get’s better.
Again..if this ends up being 3-4 more weeks and then we go back to getting business’s open again and start living again....I expect a massive rally by year end. In the neighborhood of 15-17% up.
There is no one who can really know how deep of a recession we will have at the point. There is no one who can say that at all. It is a true unknown.
The media loves to deal with absolutes. The media loves to embellish. They are the biggest culprit to adding to the outright panic. I am not minimizing this thing. I am very nervous for my parents and my sister in-law who is a 2 time kidney transplant reciepient (her immune system is almost nil due to ani refection medications). But the outright fear mongering coverage by various news outlets has been incredible.
We will recover, faster than a lot of the bears think. Eternal bears are loving all this. They get to pat themselves on the back saying “ah ha I told you so”. Like they knew a virus was coming. Or “the economy was weak to begin with”. With all due respect.....this uncharted territory in terms of a total shutdown. But knowing the will and resolve of our country, a year from now we will be all steam ahead.
We are not like the Far East who wore masks at theme parks ever since SARS. Really.....they travel with masks everywhere. Forever paranoid. That is not America. That is not how we live.
Live free or die.
Anyway......I am fired up. I know we will get through this and overcome all of it. #### the bears, #### the naysayers, doom sayers and all the media overhype 24/7 nothing but doom coverage.
We will beat this and prosper once again.
As far as stocks.......we are waiting for one more flush out. I don’t disagree we have probably 10% more downside with all the testing ramping up and cases rising rapidly. That is the virus whoosh and once that levels off......we will start moving north again. This IMO will not be a deep recession. Moderate? Most likely. Long lived? Doubtful.
I am already thinking about 2021 and the big rebound.