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Historically that is the case. However take a look at the options of QQQ or SPY. They are all over the place instead of the usual bell curve. I can see us rally over days, sucking in bulls buying calls and then back to the selloff. Hard to say since this setup is really rare. Last time was really 2008-2009.
The current market conditions are a short seller and day traders buffett. 

The swings will be violent until we get clarity that we are out of the woods with this virus. The market will rally hard long before the “economic news’ get’s better. 

Again..if this ends up being 3-4 more weeks and then we go back to getting business’s open again and start living again....I expect a massive rally by year end. In the neighborhood of 15-17% up. 

There is no one who can really know how deep of a recession we will have at the point. There is no one who can say that at all. It is a true unknown.

The media loves to deal with absolutes. The media loves to embellish. They are the biggest culprit to adding to the outright panic. I am not minimizing this thing. I am very nervous for my parents and my sister in-law who is a 2 time kidney transplant reciepient (her immune system is almost nil due to ani refection medications). But the outright fear mongering coverage by various news outlets has been incredible. 

We will recover, faster than a lot of the bears think. Eternal bears are loving all this. They get to pat themselves on the back saying “ah ha I told you so”. Like they knew a virus was coming. Or “the economy was weak to begin with”. With all due respect.....this uncharted territory in terms of a total shutdown. But knowing the will and resolve of our country, a year from now we will be all steam ahead. 

We are not like the Far East who wore masks at theme parks ever since SARS. Really.....they travel with masks everywhere. Forever paranoid. That is not America. That is not how we live.

Live free or die.

Anyway......I am fired up. I know we will get through this and overcome all of it. #### the bears, #### the naysayers, doom sayers and all the media overhype 24/7 nothing but doom coverage. 

We will beat this and prosper once again. 

As far as stocks.......we are waiting for one more flush out. I don’t disagree we have probably 10% more downside with all the testing ramping up and cases rising rapidly. That is the virus whoosh and once that levels off......we will start moving north again. This IMO will not be a deep recession. Moderate? Most likely. Long lived? Doubtful. 

I am already thinking about 2021 and the big rebound.

 
I’m staying away from stuff like this. Too many good growth stocks that fit best down almost as much and don’t have risks.
The only one I am buying is Boeing. And I may dip into CCL because their balance sheet is sound and strong. But that is it. I hate airlines and auto makers.....I have always stayed away from them. 

 
My prediction is that consumer spending and demand-side will plummet and bottom out sometime late April early May.

How do we know if the market has baked this in yet?  I haven’t followed the stock market for a few years and I’m just now starting to pay more attention. I mean surely they have to be understanding of how this is going to crater and some of the precipitous falls in the last week or two are predicting some of that but I feel like maybe they haven’t fully price it in yet

 
My prediction is that consumer spending and demand-side will plummet and bottom out sometime late April early May.

How do we know if the market has baked this in yet?  I haven’t followed the stock market for a few years and I’m just now starting to pay more attention. I mean surely they have to be understanding of how this is going to crater and some of the precipitous falls in the last week or two are predicting some of that but I feel like maybe they haven’t fully price it in yet
Honest answer- no one knows because there is no way of knowing. That's all everyone is doing- the buyers guessing that the news will be better than currently priced in and the sellers the opposite.

I tend to agree with you, seems like most but not nearly all of the bad news is baked in, still have more downside to come.

 
My prediction is that consumer spending and demand-side will plummet and bottom out sometime late April early May.

How do we know if the market has baked this in yet?  I haven’t followed the stock market for a few years and I’m just now starting to pay more attention. I mean surely they have to be understanding of how this is going to crater and some of the precipitous falls in the last week or two are predicting some of that but I feel like maybe they haven’t fully price it in yet
It is being priced in.

But to give you an idea of what I am doing.

GLPI. They are the Real Estate Trust of Penn gaming. The stock has cratered to as low as $13.05 from $51. 

But if you do a true analysis of their balance sheet and cash strength......they can suffer a 100% loss in earnings in 2020 and still have the ability to maintain their dividend for 18 months.

The stock is acting like casinos in Vegas and race tracks around the country will never open again. THIS IS MARKET DISCONNECT.

These are some of the babies being thrown out with the bath water.  That is what you do in times like this. Think long, buy high quality. Profit. 

So to answer the question......the way a lot of the best stocks I have owned have plummeted.....yeah things are being priced in and we still may price in some more....but this presents great opportunity for those with cash. And if you are fully invested.....you sit tight and relax. Things will rebound long term. No doubt. 

 
Honest answer- no one knows because there is no way of knowing. That's all everyone is doing- the buyers guessing that the news will be better than currently priced in and the sellers the opposite.

I tend to agree with you, seems like most but not nearly all of the bad news is baked in, still have more downside to come.
I think all of us agree on this.

 
stbugs said:
It will be, we just don't know what the length closures will be. Industries like cruises and even air travel (might see a lot more video conferencing instead) could be damaged for years, but restaurants and other local business will very likely get back to where they were. Could even be a bump at the start due to the cooped up public. People will very likely be way more conscious and prepared with Purell, but I think most areas of the economy will go back to normal very fast.

I just wanted to put some perspective in place because this thread tends to get a bit overbearing with people honestly trying to peddle the end of the world. I don't want to underplay how bad it could get or trivialize anything, but we've had 150 deaths and the CDC first reported cases in 1/14. Reading some of the posts in hear and you'd think we had mass graves being dug and 10% of the US was gone. I've been prepped (just didn't sell my stocks :(  ) and been taking it pretty seriously as my wife can attest to telling me I was going overboard, but I do think there are some folks in here trying to incite a bit more panic, kind of like short sellers do.
Many restaurants and other local businesses will not be open when things get back to "normal". I don't think people realize how slim the margins are for these guys, ~2 weeks of bad weather can shut some of them down. A month (or several) of zero business? Disastrous.

 
My prediction is that consumer spending and demand-side will plummet and bottom out sometime late April early May.

How do we know if the market has baked this in yet?  
Best I can come up with is that ultimately this is not as bad as 2008 but worse than a mild recession because of the virus. So look at the % drop on both of those and we are somewhere in between that. Get a cure or solid treatment and the recovery starts. 

 
Ok dude. You were right. I’m not targeting you but do you want a medal? Do you want a $1 per dead body? You can tell everyone I told you so but just because we account for the worst case scenario doesn’t mean we have to talk like this is the worst event in human history. Again, I was quoting someone saying we’ve never seen anything like this when 1.5M people is 1% higher unemployment, which doesn’t get us remotely close to the 2008-2009 crisis or anywhere near the Great Depression. Also, these are politicians throwing out numbers.

I’m not trying to minimize things but acting like we are in the zombie apocalypse when we aren’t is fear mongering. Look at your first paragraph. You basically said that our CDC is under reporting because of a government conspiracy. Then you want to put yourself on the back and then your telling us that every worker in Las Vegas is out of a job and no one will ever travel back there when it’s OK. I’m trying to stay a bit more level headed because there are a lot of stupid people and a viral FB post is something way too many people will believe over a virologist or some other expert.


Edit—I didn’t notice this in my first read—-but Eff you for the bolded.  I’m not one to talk like this in these forums—but you sir deserve it for posting garbage like that.   What you said is one of the most egregious and frankly inappropriate comments I’ve ever seen in this place. If I get suspended or banned for saying this—it’s fine by me. 

First of all—I never said I wanted a medal or I wanted props.  Even though my prediction was accurate—-I never wanted to be soo wrong about something—so just drop that.  

 Secondly—throughout the history of mankind—hell even in the Spanish Flu—every government has been guilty of understating the severity of outbreaks—- so it’s not like I’m some conspiracy theorist— it’s reality.  Perhaps you should do some research on that before you just jump to calling people names.  Our country spends twice as much on healthcare per person—and our hospitals are running out of basics like masks, gloves, sanitizers, and swabs to conduct tests—and we are barely a couple weeks into this thing—so yes— I think it it’s 1000% a reality that the numbers that our government has released so far are complete and utter garbage.  Our healthcare system is on the road to collapse and this thing hasn’t even really started yet.  

Thirdly—when did I say that nobody will EVER travel back to Vegas?   Please copy and paste where I said people will never go back there.    Vegas is my second home—and I am fully aware that it’s fundamentally based on business travel and the convention industry.   Business travel and conventions are most likely not going to normalize back to their previous levels for years to come.  A large portion of the employees on the strip will get laid off—that’s just a reality.    The employees of the resorts, casinos, sports books, restaurants, and shows and entertainment all have jobs that are in jeopardy.   Our government is fighting this disease in hopes of flattening out the “spike” in order to hopefully ease some stress on our healthcare system.  This by nature prolongs how long the virus sticks around—so I’m not being negative—I’m being realistic.   The notion that things will just go back to normal relatively quickly does not factor this reality—and is frankly overly-optimistic.    These checks that the government is sending out will maybe help some people get some groceries and essentials while our government chooses to fight this thing in a way that guarantees that it stays around for a while.  

Lastly—do I think that this is the zombie apocalypse? No. I absolutely think we will push through this—and we will EVENTUALLY be stronger and better.  I cannot say it more clearly than that—so drop the fear mongering thing.  However—I think the EVENTUALLY is going to be closer to years than months.   We still haven’t seen the Q2 and Q3 numbers,  we still haven’t seen more than the first week or second week of unemployment than this thing has caused.  Wait until after the first month or two and see how unemployment is trending.  Once this thing goes on for a while—you will see also see second and third waves of people rushing to liquidity—which also could keep the markets range bound for a while.  In any case—we’ll just agree to disagree. 

 
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Many restaurants and other local businesses will not be open when things get back to "normal". I don't think people realize how slim the margins are for these guys, ~2 weeks of bad weather can shut some of them down. A month (or several) of zero business? Disastrous.
And other businesses or new restaurants will take their place. Restaurants that can weather these issues may be busier than ever. My point is that money will be spent. Will some people suffer way more? Yes. Will some people make a killing? Yes. Unlike air travel or cruises where there are alternatives (remote meetings, resorts), people will eat. Restaurants are going to suffer, but grocery stores, Costco, Walmart, Target and Amazon have probably done Black Friday level of sales in Q1. I’m not invested in the local restaurants, I’m in Amazon.

 
Based on all this unemployment talk, I think I'm targeting April 3-4 as the time to jump in. Unemployment figures released on the morning of April 3rd and I'm feeling confident that between April 3rd and May 3rd (the next report) there will be enough control of the virus taking place where recovery will have begun, even if just a little bit.

 
It is being priced in.

But to give you an idea of what I am doing.

GLPI. They are the Real Estate Trust of Penn gaming. The stock has cratered to as low as $13.05 from $51. 

But if you do a true analysis of their balance sheet and cash strength......they can suffer a 100% loss in earnings in 2020 and still have the ability to maintain their dividend for 18 months.

The stock is acting like casinos in Vegas and race tracks around the country will never open again. THIS IS MARKET DISCONNECT.

These are some of the babies being thrown out with the bath water.  That is what you do in times like this. Think long, buy high quality. Profit. 

So to answer the question......the way a lot of the best stocks I have owned have plummeted.....yeah things are being priced in and we still may price in some more....but this presents great opportunity for those with cash. And if you are fully invested.....you sit tight and relax. Things will rebound long term. No doubt. 
New to the stock game, but is this the same Penn that just purchased Barstool?  If so, thinking longer term - when they eventually start to brand out Barstool sports books/casino, I can see this being given a nice shot in the arm, no?  👍

 
If you listened to some of the airline CEO's as the 737 MAX drama dragged along,  particularly those from Southwest and American, they are absolutely livid at Boeing. What was taken for granted before, that they would automatically buy from Boeing, is out the door. BA is going to lose a LOT of business. It wasn't just that the MAX kept falling out of the sky but the way they handled it. BA's not going out of business but their market share is going to get cut.

 
And other businesses or new restaurants will take their place. Restaurants that can weather these issues may be busier than ever. My point is that money will be spent. Will some people suffer way more? Yes. Will some people make a killing? Yes. Unlike air travel or cruises where there are alternatives (remote meetings, resorts), people will eat. Restaurants are going to suffer, but grocery stores, Costco, Walmart, Target and Amazon have probably done Black Friday level of sales in Q1. I’m not invested in the local restaurants, I’m in Amazon.
No offense but I don't think you know much about the restaurant business. It's incredibly difficult even during good times.

You're kind of all over the place- we were talking about local businesses and restaurants, not Costco, Walmart, Target and Amazon. That's an entirely different conversation.

 
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bought about a grand worth of DAL at 23.00.

I am still going to keep my 403b on the sidelines in a money market account.  I am a total newbie with individual stocks, but when things down down 60% that WILL more than likely bounce back like nothing ever happened (ie air travel), I am very much interested in going heavy into some of them.

I did a cash out refinance pulling out about 50k from my house last month with the intent to buy another rental property.   I am no longer going to do that in the near future due to all the uncertainly with the virus related to tenants being affected either medically or financially, plus prices in my area are very inflated.  Bad combo.  

I am scared out of my mind to throw most of that into individual stocks, but I KNOW it would likely be the right move split up on about a dozen of these.   That money is not money I will NEED any time soon, so I can definitely wait out a recovery for the long term.  

Plus I have the next week off work for a vacation (that we cancelled), so I have nothing but time to get advice from you guys 😀

Very torn

 
Hopefully I am not waiting way too long, the airlines are shooting up today it looks like.

UAL up 30%.  

 
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No offense but I don't think you know much about the restaurant business. It's incredibly difficult even during good times.

You're kind of all over the place- we were talking about local businesses and restaurants, not Costco, Walmart, Target and Amazon. That's an entirely different conversation.
Ok, stop replying to me then if you think I don’t know anything. I don’t get why you ask questions when you think you know exactly what will happen.

I understand how hard it is, those businesses fail all the time and they also start all the time. Heck, Tipsy’s and Pollard’s threads prove how hard it is even when things appear to be going well and getting all kinds of good press.

Also, I wasn’t being all over the place. I was showing that money is still being spent. Right now instead of money going to restaurants/local business there is a gigantic influx to local grocery stores and big box stores/delivery retailers. Their sales are going through the roof the past month. It will be that way until people start going back out, whenever that is.

 
Hopefully I am not waiting way too long, the airlines are shooting up today it looks like.

UAL up 30%.  
That’s what we were talking about. When moves down are as fast as they were, moves up will be as well. I put a few more bucks in on Monday and some of that is already up 50%. I didn’t go all in because there is very likely more downturn. Stock to stock it will vary because each had different news at different times. Just feel good about when you make a move knowing that there can still be downside but if you like the price looking out a few years then you’re good.

 
General question regarding Vanguard or similar........do they receive any level of insurance in a disaster similar to how banks are FDIC insured to $250k? Even if only money market funds?

 
That’s what we were talking about. When moves down are as fast as they were, moves up will be as well. I put a few more bucks in on Monday and some of that is already up 50%. I didn’t go all in because there is very likely more downturn. Stock to stock it will vary because each had different news at different times. Just feel good about when you make a move knowing that there can still be downside but if you like the price looking out a few years then you’re good.
I know the idea is to buy and hold and whatnot, but I am playing around with things and trying to figure it out.  I already made the mistake of buying a stock for too much money per share rather than use the limit feature.  Lesson learned.  Same with selling. 

I bought and sold several things, including DAL and AAL and made a little profit today.  

I am not going to become some fancy day trader or anything, and I know I have some tax implications, but I feel this is the best way to learn by making some moves and at least figuring out how my platform works (fidelity).  

A lot of those airline gains are already gone, so maybe I can jump right back in at the end of the day/tomorrow.

Question.  If you put in an order to sell or buy at like midnight, is the price you sell/buy it for the price you see on the ticker?  Or is there more to it?

 
Ok, stop replying to me then if you think I don’t know anything. I don’t get why you ask questions when you think you know exactly what will happen.

I understand how hard it is, those businesses fail all the time and they also start all the time. Heck, Tipsy’s and Pollard’s threads prove how hard it is even when things appear to be going well and getting all kinds of good press.

Also, I wasn’t being all over the place. I was showing that money is still being spent. Right now instead of money going to restaurants/local business there is a gigantic influx to local grocery stores and big box stores/delivery retailers. Their sales are going through the roof the past month. It will be that way until people start going back out, whenever that is.
I replied to one of your posts, which said "restaurants and other local business will very likely get back to where they were. Could even be a bump at the start due to the cooped up public." Since then you seem to have changed your tune to say that maybe they won't but places like grocery stores and Target, Amazon, etc. will get a boost. That's a big fat red herring because that wasn't even part of the conversation, and you seem to actually agree with me now. It would be a lot easier if you just admitted that instead of picking an i-fight all the time.  :thumbup:

 
Question.  If you put in an order to sell or buy at like midnight, is the price you sell/buy it for the price you see on the ticker?  Or is there more to it?
I would avoid putting in any buy or sell orders after market hours if you can at all avoid it. If you absolutely must, be 100% sure to use limit orders.

Market orders get filled when the market opens at whatever price you can get immediately after the open, but that price could be wildly different than what you see on the last print from the market close. Moreover, stocks tend to gap higher (on good news) or lower (on bad) at the open and then invariably retrace some of those gains or losses in the next hour - so people with market orders at the open get screwed right out of the gate.

 
Hopefully I am not waiting way too long, the airlines are shooting up today it looks like.

UAL up 30%.  
Just locked in some of that profit on UAL by selling 50% of my holdings.  Going to do the same on SAVE to lock in some of the 20% gain.  MAR is now up over 50% where it was 3 days ago.  There must be some people getting filthy rich in this market with these swings.

 
Rumor going around that FLXN will be bought. I do not work in the pharma industry, nor do I know anything about the company. I looked at the chart and bough 500 shares just in case. Spinning that roulette wheel.

 
Definitely not "all" agree, but I think where more of the disagreement lies is in the shape/speed of the recovery. I've yet to hear a valid reason why BA will be back to $350 a share in a year, for example.
In a year? No. I do not see that. 3 years? Absolutely possible and probable based on normality coming back. They have an incredible model. Before this.....event the stock was in the 325-335 range. It will get back there once the aerospace industry recovers which 3 years from will be a full on reality. So if you can pick it up at $100 a share using round numbers.....why wouldn't you with a very good chance in 3 years it can be $350 based on normal market conditions returning full force.

Unless of course you are a total bear and think we are doomed.

Then stay out of the market and stay in your house. 

I have been in stocks since 1987........Boeing will be one of the biggest opportunities in this current market then too many people will not take. Because fear, panic and doom and gloom will cloud their vision on what reality will most likely be 3 years from now. 

It is simple. Are you a bull or a bear on the USA. It really is that simple.

Not saying this directly to you Humpback. Just making a general statement. 

 
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New to the stock game, but is this the same Penn that just purchased Barstool?  If so, thinking longer term - when they eventually start to brand out Barstool sports books/casino, I can see this being given a nice shot in the arm, no?  👍
Yes it is them!!! Go long!!!

 
Can't see how Lyft and Uber do anything but downgrade in the shortterm.  Bought some Lyft puts this morning.  The more of these mandates that non essential workers cannot go to work has a direct impact on these services.   

 
In a year? No. I do not see that. 3 years? Absolutely possible and probable based on normality coming back. They have an incredible model. Before this.....event the stock was in the 325-335 range. It will get back there once the aerospace industry recovers which 3 years from will be a full on reality. So if you can pick it up at $100 a share using round numbers.....why wouldn't you with a very good chance in 3 years it can be $350 based on normal market conditions returning full force.

Unless of course you are a total bear and think we are doomed.

Then stay out of the market and stay in your house. 

I have been in stocks since 1987........Boeing will be one of the biggest opportunities in this current market then too many people will not take. Because fear, panic and doom and gloom will cloud their vision on what reality will most likely be 3 years from now. 

It is simple. Are you a bull or a bear on the USA. It really is that simple.

Not saying this directly to you Humpback. Just making a general statement. 
Well, that's what you said a week ago.  :shrug:

There is a ton of middle ground between your "it's going to $350 in 3 years" and "total bear and think we are doomed". I mean, by definition we are in a bear market right now, but obviously everyone knows we will get out of it at some point. What is completely unknown is when, and how quickly we will rebound when we do. Boeing is bleeding cash right now, they are literally worth less every day than the day prior. The most likely thing that will stop the bleeding is a government bailout, but that will almost certainly come with plenty of stipulations. In this political climate, do you think it's likely that they just throw money at them, no questions asked? Do you think those stipulations generally will be good for shareholders? I mean, they'll be better than bankruptcy, but not as good as no stipulations.

This is probably my biggest gripe in all of this- it is absolutely not as simple as "are you a bull or a bear on the USA".

 
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Just locked in some of that profit on UAL by selling 50% of my holdings.  Going to do the same on SAVE to lock in some of the 20% gain.  MAR is now up over 50% where it was 3 days ago.  There must be some people getting filthy rich in this market with these swings.
Seems that way.  Wild swings.  Two airlines back to almost where they were to begin the day. 

Looks like Delta and American might be my buy and holds

 
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I know the idea is to buy and hold and whatnot, but I am playing around with things and trying to figure it out.  I already made the mistake of buying a stock for too much money per share rather than use the limit feature.  Lesson learned.  Same with selling. 

I bought and sold several things, including DAL and AAL and made a little profit today.  

I am not going to become some fancy day trader or anything, and I know I have some tax implications, but I feel this is the best way to learn by making some moves and at least figuring out how my platform works (fidelity).  

A lot of those airline gains are already gone, so maybe I can jump right back in at the end of the day/tomorrow.

Question.  If you put in an order to sell or buy at like midnight, is the price you sell/buy it for the price you see on the ticker?  Or is there more to it?
Well, most places won’t let you trade outside of the 9:30-4 stock exchange hours and I don’t recommend trades after hours as a newbie.

You either do market orders at the price you see, usually instant quotes so relatively correct (pennies different) or you set a limit (above for sell and below for buy). On the limit order those can stay alive for days but still take place during exchange hours if you aren’t setup for after hours. 

 
Can't see how Lyft and Uber do anything but downgrade in the shortterm.  Bought some Lyft puts this morning.  The more of these mandates that non essential workers cannot go to work has a direct impact on these services.   
Never liked them much anyway. The market cap of Uber to start was an obvious avoid too. No chance I was touching that and honestly, I wonder if their business is going to take a ding and not quite recover to the same level. More business travelers using conferences and maybe a bit more worry by consumers about riding in a car that has dozens of passengers coming from god knows where. 

 

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