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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
In regard to Boeing, they are really in a bind. First, obviously they have this issue with the 737 max still not being approved. Second, although air travel is not going to stop, you have to expect demand will be significantly impacted. Besides the corona virus fears, which will abate relatively soon, imho, the WFH mentality will certainly creep into businesses as they also look to cut costs. Teleconferencing companies will have shown to be viable alternatives for non-necessary travel. So, what's a company going to do, foot the bill to send 2-3 employees to travel to Singapore for the week of meetings, probably costing easily $25-$50K or else schedule a few teleconference meetings and if something needs to be panned out in person, send one person for a few days later on down the road? Companies are going to be under pressure to cut costs, get back to probability VERY quickly after things "return to normal" There is going to be massive pressure from shareholders - and in some (many?) cases, banks/governments looking to be repaid for loans.We're not gonna stop air travel. This isn't like the cruise lines where people will be thinking "god those things are nasty, no thanks, I can go on vacation another way [i.e., flying]."
We actually need planes and air travel, not just for leisure, but to actually do business. We'll eventually be flying around as normal again. And we'll need planes.
Just my thinking, feels like major value.
PS I'm awful with money and not very bright
Boeing is a great company, but it may be a very long road back for them. Further, a board member just resigned today as she was requesting that they NOT ask for a government bailout.
And as an aside, a lot of banter in this thread about airlines, not failing, bailouts, etc... This is going to be a very different situation. The airlines are not the only industry looking for a lifeline here. Off the top of my head, the restaurant industry is looking for a major infusion of cash. The cinema industry. I'm sure there will be many more as well. I have a feeling there are going to be very restrictive covenants placed on airline bailouts and we may be looking at a form of nationalized airlines for awhile. I'd really look long and hard at balance sheets of these companies prior to gambling on them. Yes, the government is going to want to keep them going as they are a major employer, and travel is a key industry. BUT, they've already been recipients of massive government funding programs before, and have shown that they are more interested in themselves then helping out the government that helped them. Wouldn't surprise me to see a few major players go bankrupt. I will admit I am very anti-airline.
Either way, g'luck
Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day as it's a quadruple witching date. If you're skittish , I'd really suggest not even watching the market until Monday.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’d be careful with Boeing. Even with a bailout of them and the airlines—some small to midsize airlines will go out of business. The companies that come out of this strong or stronger—could just buy the assets of the airlines that went under for pennies on the dollar versus paying big money for new planes. Unless you are buying Boeing for the very long term—I’m not sure it’s a slam dunk.
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Otis
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
And insiders with a significant vested interest in propping up the value of their company in any way they can right now.In other news, I saw something today that corporate insiders bought more stock this week than any time previously reported. Not necessarily saying that's a buy signal, but these are insiders with direct information to their companies prospects
Hey look, Joe CEO just exercised 75,000 of his options today. Must mean he thinks we’re near the bottom!
I’m sure some insider acquired stock, maybe most of it, was executives feeling there were bargains to be had. But I would venture to guess there were some mental games being waged as well.
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That would be twice as high as the worst month during the great recession.....We've never seen anything like this.
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And it's not doing any good. It's like we're half asing and just prolonging the misery on both fronts.
Really? We are currently at 3.5%, which is about 5.8M people. 1.5M people is about 25% of 3.5%. In 2009, we hit 9.9%, which is almost triple the current rate. The Great Depression had years of over 20% or about 7 times the current rate. This is not a good number, but it would take out unemployment rate to about 4.5%. That's nowhere near "never seen" in our history.
I have no idea how long this will last, but I do think it is temporary. It sucks real bad for people who can't work from home/have a job where their income basically drops to 0. That said, the hyperbole in here is amazing for people who appear to be pushing an agenda.
In terms of job changes month over month. There was a bigger month after WW2, but those were very different circumstances.
WFH is going to dry up when no one is at the office processing the receivables and payables. Under the new CA restrictions, I wouldn't be able to drive to work tomorrow to cut checks for my employees.
This is a sudden change, but 2008-2009 had 150k to 350k per month job losses for over a year. I believe it was close to 3M overall. Anyway, it's a completely different circumstance in that everyone is getting laid off at one time, but unlike the financial crisis, this could be very short lived and still be a lower unemployment rate. It took almost 5 years from 2008 for the unemployment rate to get less than double our current rate. It's a big number, but it's very much based on circumstance and I don't think it's close to what happened in 2008 where we hit almost triple the current rate and stayed much higher than 2019 for many years.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
It’s going to get very ugly. Our culture and economy were not built to basically withstand anything close to a full stoppage—which is what we are battling here. There are some companies that are paying employees for 2-4 weeks until they see how things look. In the next few months—you will see a tsunami of unemployment. The system will get clogged with so many requests all at once that they will be overwhelmed. This will not be a slow bleed to start—this will happen rather violently in the short term to mid term.
Too lazy to do percentage on phone, but look up the payems series on FRED. These numbers really stick out.
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What percentage of people that work from home don't have automated payroll/direct deposit? I'd suspect that you're anecdotal compared to the significant majority. By work from home, I'm not talking about that huge wave (estimate in that article, not an actual number) of hourly type workers. I know they aren't all hourly, but I think that's the bulk of the can't work from home/mainly salaried employees.
Capella
Footballguy
It will be, we just don't know what the length closures will be. Industries like cruises and even air travel (might see a lot more video conferencing instead) could be damaged for years, but restaurants and other local business will very likely get back to where they were. Could even be a bump at the start due to the cooped up public. People will very likely be way more conscious and prepared with Purell, but I think most areas of the economy will go back to normal very fast.
I just wanted to put some perspective in place because this thread tends to get a bit overbearing with people honestly trying to peddle the end of the world. I don't want to underplay how bad it could get or trivialize anything, but we've had 150 deaths and the CDC first reported cases in 1/14. Reading some of the posts in hear and you'd think we had mass graves being dug and 10% of the US was gone. I've been prepped (just didn't sell my stocks :( ) and been taking it pretty seriously as my wife can attest to telling me I was going overboard, but I do think there are some folks in here trying to incite a bit more panic, kind of like short sellers do.
Small business year. We still get a ton of checks in the mail and a bunch of our vendors still want payment via check.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I understand your point of view—but can we all just understand that that the “reported’ numbers are a bunch of garbage? Every country has under reported numbers because they do not want the public to know the truth. Do not use what everybody knows and understands as being false metrics to support an opinion.
And nobody is peddling the “end of the world”. Why can't you just have your own take without the need to accuse people of fear mongering and peddling negativity? Just state your economic opinion and back it up with your rationale. A proper analysis needs to take into account best case scenario AND worse case scenario. You and everybody else needs to drop the narrative that evaluating and including the worst case scenario in an analysis is somehow fear mongering.
The few of us that were labeled fear mongerers in January in the other thread ended up being 1000% right and we still have to deal with backhanded comments like this for being right on. How do you think a restaurant that goes out of business will just return back to how things were very quickly? Where do you think the 100000 workers on the Las Vegas strip go when convention travel does not normalize in Vegas for years to come? I absolutely think we can and will bounce back from this—but it’s not going to be quick—and it’s not going to be easy. Once we are out of it—we will have a deficit like no tomorrow, a completely watered down dollar, a Europe that might very well be in a depression, along with a myriad of other things.
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My bank sends out checks for me and let’s me deposit them online. I’m sure there’s another way.BassNBrew said:
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
I could see them being split up into different companies. For example, the airplane & rocket parts of the business.rascal said:
Ok dude. You were right. I’m not targeting you but do you want a medal? Do you want a $1 per dead body? You can tell everyone I told you so but just because we account for the worst case scenario doesn’t mean we have to talk like this is the worst event in human history. Again, I was quoting someone saying we’ve never seen anything like this when 1.5M people is 1% higher unemployment, which doesn’t get us remotely close to the 2008-2009 crisis or anywhere near the Great Depression. Also, these are politicians throwing out numbers.jvdesigns2002 said:
I’m not trying to minimize things but acting like we are in the zombie apocalypse when we aren’t is fear mongering. Look at your first paragraph. You basically said that our CDC is under reporting because of a government conspiracy. Then you want to put yourself on the back and then your telling us that every worker in Las Vegas is out of a job and no one will ever travel back there when it’s OK. I’m trying to stay a bit more level headed because there are a lot of stupid people and a viral FB post is something way too many people will believe over a virologist or some other expert.
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
Niki Hayley resigned from the Boeing board. The thinking is the optics would look bad if they receive a bailout.
By pain are you talking about a short squeeze?
I am liking my $24 entry point for LK yesterday, looks like it’s over $27 in pre-market.
Still sitting on around 2/3rds of my cash and I’m going to keep that for another leg down if that happens. I started at around 15-20% of my entire portfolio, should have been higher, but I didn’t sell enough. Still long term but I did use about 1/3rd to DCA down earlier this week some up as much as 50%.
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No but that will happen if they drive this market higher. Yesterday I posted the max pain options link.
So if this is a great day might be a good exit point for some things? IRA aside, could definitely sell some stuff to get tax benefits for a while and not sell at the bottom (so far).
Yes but these are odd times. We could end up in a multiday bear market rally. Target 2720-2800. Then the final drop.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
Seems more prudent to wait at least a couple of weeks or even months to buy Boeing. Boeing stock isn't going to shoot up fast anytime soon. But it could still fall precipitously.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
How is the potential surge in unemployment going to impact disposable income and things like going out to a restaurant for dinner?stbugs said:
How many small businesses like restaurants will be shuttered and how long will it take for them to re-emerge and return to pre-COVID-19 levels of business?
Same for all the many businesses impacted by this.
A fast recovery is something we can all hope for. A much slower recovery is something we should probably plan for.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Also worth drawing a distinction between the “real economy” and the “financial economy.”
Otis
Footballguy
Stick with me fellas.
Boeing Surges as Lawmakers Propose $150 Billion Corporate Rescue Package, Trump Hints at Government Stakes in Some Companies
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-surges-as-lawmakers-propose-corporate-rescue-package
Boeing Surges as Lawmakers Propose $150 Billion Corporate Rescue Package, Trump Hints at Government Stakes in Some Companies
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-surges-as-lawmakers-propose-corporate-rescue-package
Steeler
Footballguy
I'm a noob. Are you saying the market could be higher today due to quadruple witching day in order to make as many options as possible expire without being executed? And then on Monday/next week the market could continue lower?
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
With respect to betting on potential bailout targets, I’d have to take a long hard look at what happened with General Motors before jumping in. The companies could be bailed out AFTER restructuring under Chapter 11, like what happened with GM (though that situation did have some peculiarities).
Historically that is the case. However take a look at the options of QQQ or SPY. They are all over the place instead of the usual bell curve. I can see us rally over days, sucking in bulls buying calls and then back to the selloff. Hard to say since this setup is really rare. Last time was really 2008-2009.
No one knows exactly. I just know that after being shut in there will be a lot of pent up demand and those govern checks will be there. I’m just saying that restaurants will be just as busy as they were before lockdowns. Cruise lines, air travel could just stay at lower levels. If people get used to Zoom, etc., there could be permanent shifts.
I’m staying away from stuff like this. Too many good growth stocks that fit best down almost as much and don’t have risks.
They may want to update their headline because this "surge" is currently less than half of what it was down yesterday.
