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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

I’m a noob. Let me answer your question with pure confidence.  If you have more than 25k in your account you can make unlimited moves.   If not your stuck with 5 per week
You have to register as a day trader if you make more than five round trip trades in a set period of time. A round trip trade is one where you buy and sell on the same day. That is my understanding of it.

 
Things are looking great in China right now with Coronavirus infections.  I think that is why the market rebounded this week.  The US is going to get hit really hard over the next few weeks with Coronavirus deaths but that could be the end of it.  I'm keyed in on whether a second wave of infections happens in China, Iran, or Italy.  That would bring the markets tumbling down again.
I don't think so. We're just stretching things out imo. Which is best for the hospitals, but people won't stop getting infected for a while. 

I anticipate, like others have experienced already, that I, as a teacher, will be doing remote teaching for the remainder of the school year.  I don't think we make it back to our classrooms. Standardized testing is toast. 
The whole state of Alabama is going virtual / remote for the rest of the year. Which works fine for our district, in an engineer / tech hub, but most parts of the state aren't as capable.

 
Selling cash-secured puts? I wouldn’t want to commit to tying up cash in this environment. On margin, sounds like a smart trade. 
IRA so can’t do margin. Just locking up some. I have more for buying days but I’m more cautious on airlines/cruises/hotels etc. 

 
Learning this stuff is pretty cool. I've seen trailing stop losses in the drop downs when I've purchased stocks but obviously have never had to execute anything like it yet. So, i assume you start that once the stock hits $26?

And obviously a short term buy isn't set for dividends to be reinvested, rather going straight to cash. 
No. Bought at 6.50. 

 
Once companies realize they don't need to be paying high city rents and that this work from home thing is just as productive, gotta imagine commercial real estate starts taking a hit.  I'm sure this is a year or two out before we start really seeing the effects of it but anyone know any good companies that specialize in these type of properties that I can research?  Unfortunately Wework is not an option to bet against but I'd be all in there.

 
Another restaurant to watch is CAKE.  Cheesecake Factory.

Their last quarterly was very positive.

52 wk hi is 51.15. now at 16.18.

My daughter runs the BOH (deposits, food ordering, HR, etc) at the Boise store.   Before the virus hit, they had 97 grub hub orders for $7k on a Saturday.  They are still doing a solid take out/pick up biz right now to keep the cooks employed.   

Low for year is $14.52.   If it hits $12, I'm buying.

 
Another restaurant to watch is CAKE.  Cheesecake Factory.

Their last quarterly was very positive.

52 wk hi is 51.15. now at 16.18.

My daughter runs the BOH (deposits, food ordering, HR, etc) at the Boise store.   Before the virus hit, they had 97 grub hub orders for $7k on a Saturday.  They are still doing a solid take out/pick up biz right now to keep the cooks employed.   

Low for year is $14.52.   If it hits $12, I'm buying.
Aren’t they not capable of paying their rent right now?

ETA: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-april-rent-coronavirus/index.html

 
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Yes they told their landlords to piss off. Not sure I’d want to be on that one. 


I think they saw an opportunity to not pay it.  At least that's the way I interrupted it.  They had net income of $48.71mil in 2019.  $20k/mo rent is only $4.4mil.  $20k is an estimate by me.
They are capable of paying it.

Really good article here on them:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334410-retail-reits-quake-cheesecake-factory-goes-on-strike

 
Negotiating tactic with their landlord, IMO.  This is why REITs have been absolutely nosediving.

Other companies have been invoking force majeure clauses to stop paying rents.
This is the way I took it also.   They are incredibly strong tenants in most leases for 20 years with escalation clauses.

 
Is this your company?
It's well documented that my company is a close partner of CYDY.  Our CEO believes he discovered the mechanism of action for COVID-19 and he also designed the treatment protocol that apparently had success treating the patients with the most severe cases.  He identified CYDY's drug as being capable of treating COVID-19 victims.

ETA: i am on the board and actively aid the CEO but I am not the owner of the company.

 
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It's well documented that my company is a close partner of CYDY.  Our CEO believes he discovered the mechanism of action for COVID-19 and he also designed the treatment protocol that apparently had success treating the patients with the most severe cases.  He identified CYDY's drug as being capable of treating COVID-19 victims.

ETA: i am on the board and actively aid the CEO but I am not the owner of the company.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/915986/cytodyn-sees-positive-test-results-from-seven-coronavirus-patients-in-new-york-treated-with-its-drug-leronlimab-915986.html

 
Negotiating tactic with their landlord, IMO.  This is why REITs have been absolutely nosediving.

Other companies have been invoking force majeure clauses to stop paying rents.
Definitely a negotiating tactic. I am on the portfolio management team of large, open-end private equity real estate fund and many of our discussions lately have been surrounding rental holidays for retail tenants. 

My fund is in Europe so slightly different results as governments here treat tenants differently but same concept. I'm willing to bet that tenants will see rent holidays now in exchange for the same amount of months tacked on to the end of a lease term.

 
Definitely a negotiating tactic. I am on the portfolio management team of large, open-end private equity real estate fund and many of our discussions lately have been surrounding rental holidays for retail tenants. 

My fund is in Europe so slightly different results as governments here treat tenants differently but same concept. I'm willing to bet that tenants will see rent holidays now in exchange for the same amount of months tacked on to the end of a lease term.
This is what Imagined would happen.

I have a decent amount of rentals that have a HUD loan.  The paperwork we hate with a passion. Our yearly audit is an insane amount of work that we finally had in on time 3/23.  But I do like the fact that I'll be protected.

Our loan servicer sent this yesterday....   The next two weeks are going to be interesting for sure with all the rents due.

 

Foreclosure Moratorium and the Right to Request Forbearance

The CARES Act provides that a borrower with a federally-backed mortgage loan may request forbearance, regardless of delinquency status and without penalties, fees, or interest, by submitting a request to the borrower’s servicer and affirming financial hardship due to COVID-19. A forbearance must be granted for up to 180 days and extended for an additional period of up to 180 days at the request of the borrower, though the initial or extended forbearance may be shortened. Servicers must notify the borrower in writing of their right to request forbearance throughout the period of a national emergency. Multifamily borrowers with a federally-backed multifamily mortgage loan that was current on February 1, 2020 may also request a forbearance for up to 30 days, with two additional 30-day extensions.

The CARES Act also prohibits the servicer of a federally-backed mortgage loan, except for a vacant or abandoned property, to initiate any foreclosure process, move for a foreclosure judgment or order of sale, or execute a foreclosure-related eviction or foreclosure sale for at least 60 days beginning on March 18, 2020.

Eviction Protection

The CARES Act prevents landlords from bringing legal causes of action to recover possession from tenant for nonpayment or rent or other fees or charges for 120 days if the dwelling is a property insured, guaranteed, supplemented, protected, or assisted in any way by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the rural housing voucher program, or the Violence Against Women Act of 1994.

 
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This is what Imagined would happen.

I have a decent amount of rentals that have a HUD loan.  The paperwork we hate with a passion. Our yearly audit is an insane amount of work that we finally had in on time 3/23.  But I do like the fact that I'll be protected.

Our loan servicer sent this yesterday....   The next two weeks are going to be interesting for sure with all the rents due.

 

Foreclosure Moratorium and the Right to Request Forbearance

The CARES Act provides that a borrower with a federally-backed mortgage loan may request forbearance, regardless of delinquency status and without penalties, fees, or interest, by submitting a request to the borrower’s servicer and affirming financial hardship due to COVID-19. A forbearance must be granted for up to 180 days and extended for an additional period of up to 180 days at the request of the borrower, though the initial or extended forbearance may be shortened. Servicers must notify the borrower in writing of their right to request forbearance throughout the period of a national emergency. Multifamily borrowers with a federally-backed multifamily mortgage loan that was current on February 1, 2020 may also request a forbearance for up to 30 days, with two additional 30-day extensions.

The CARES Act also prohibits the servicer of a federally-backed mortgage loan, except for a vacant or abandoned property, to initiate any foreclosure process, move for a foreclosure judgment or order of sale, or execute a foreclosure-related eviction or foreclosure sale for at least 60 days beginning on March 18, 2020.

Eviction Protection

The CARES Act prevents landlords from bringing legal causes of action to recover possession from tenant for nonpayment or rent or other fees or charges for 120 days if the dwelling is a property insured, guaranteed, supplemented, protected, or assisted in any way by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the rural housing voucher program, or the Violence Against Women Act of 1994.
getz - I'm not smart enough to understand the impact of this, it sounds like landlords can apply to not pay their monthly note?  Is that right? 

Is there any impact to your tenants?  I don't know about HUD other than it is a lot of paperwork, but thought that the landlord received payments from the government.  Is there any danger of not getting HUD rent payments?  

 
It's well documented that my company is a close partner of CYDY.  Our CEO believes he discovered the mechanism of action for COVID-19 and he also designed the treatment protocol that apparently had success treating the patients with the most severe cases.  He identified CYDY's drug as being capable of treating COVID-19 victims.

ETA: i am on the board and actively aid the CEO but I am not the owner of the company.
I was unaware, cool.

 
getz - I'm not smart enough to understand the impact of this, it sounds like landlords can apply to not pay their monthly note?  Is that right? 

Is there any impact to your tenants?  I don't know about HUD other than it is a lot of paperwork, but thought that the landlord received payments from the government.  Is there any danger of not getting HUD rent payments?  
It's a HUD backed loan.  It's the same as any loan, the tenants pay their rent.   You might be thinking Section 8 housing and we are not a part of that.

So the tenant must prove that the virus was the reason they can't pay rent to get govt help.  People just can't stop paying rent.   If we get tenants that prove the virus was the reason for no rent payment, then we can apply for relief in the same amount.  Not 100% sure exactly how that works.   Hoping it's not a huge problem.

 
I was reading the post, it was like the 3rd article down, I saw the headline and I was just like it couldn’t be.... I spit my coffee out and I haven’t stopped giggling since.

@chet I should buy more Monday, right?

 
I was reading the post, it was like the 3rd article down, I saw the headline and I was just like it couldn’t be.... I spit my coffee out and I haven’t stopped giggling since.

@chet I should buy more Monday, right?
Feels like I should have bought more than 5k shares.... Anyone want to guess some price targets for this if it pans out?

 
Feels like I should have bought more than 5k shares.... Anyone want to guess some price targets for this if it pans out?
No ####. I have 10k shares and I am kind of the middle of feeling like maybe this is the start and wishing I had more. It’s too bad I didn’t get in until around $1 but it’s hard to invest more in a really risky stock. We’ll see how it goes but this is certainly good news not just for us but damn if this wouldn’t be great news for the world.

 
I wonder what the price will be at the open monday
The OTC part of it makes it hard to know because most online services are behind. I will definitely be interested and may use some of my cash on it to build up some more. Let’s put it this way when these biotech companies do well it isn’t just a one day pop. Just because we are talking about it doesn’t mean this is well known. Even if there’s a bit of a pop, it could still be just the start of a run.

I will say that this is still a very risky stock so even though I’ll enjoy any run up we get, just be careful.

 
No ####. I have 10k shares and I am kind of the middle of feeling like maybe this is the start and wishing I had more. It’s too bad I didn’t get in until around $1 but it’s hard to invest more in a really risky stock. We’ll see how it goes but this is certainly good news not just for us but damn if this wouldn’t be great news for the world.
Yeah I’ve got around 5k at .60 average.  Kicking myself for not having 10x that.   

 
Question for those who dabble in trading but don't put all their money on the line. How much of your portfolio do you actively trade? 

I'm pretty sure I'm going with:

TSP, 60% of our accounts - leave alone, barely look at

Wife's Roth IRA, 25% of our accounts - she has a few individual stocks but 80% following the Paul Merriman ultimate portfolio.

My Roth IRA, 10% of our accounts, longer term build on companies or sectors I like.

Regular brokerage, 5% - play money. 

(I'm not including the college accounts, which are conservatively invested and just a bit more than my Roth)

 
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So if I log into Fidelity today and buy more, it’s at the Friday closing price?
No. You're going to need to set a limit price for whatever you want to buy it at and hope it fills. If you're up in time, you can try to trade in the early market but that's still using limit prices. 

 
Never mind the growing unemployment numbers but has it been factored in all the people that are going to have to take pay cuts over the next month too.  Not that I haven't been surprised before but having trouble seeing how the market holds up over the next few weeks.  

People are going to be cutting contributions to have a little more in their paycheck and others liquidating more to have cash on hand.

This has really been priced in already?

Predicting new lows within 10 days.  

 
-OZ- said:
Question for those who dabble in trading but don't put all their money on the line. How much of your portfolio do you actively trade? 

I'm pretty sure I'm going with:

TSP, 60% of our accounts - leave alone, barely look at

Wife's Roth IRA, 25% of our accounts - she has a few individual stocks but 80% following the Paul Merriman ultimate portfolio.

My Roth IRA, 10% of our accounts, longer term build on companies or sectors I like.

Regular brokerage, 5% - play money. 

(I'm not including the college accounts, which are conservatively invested and just a bit more than my Roth)
I'm actively trading around 5-7% of my portfolio.  Think that's a reasonable number but I'm far from an expert.  I am fairly aggressive with some of my trades though, buying options.

 
dkp993 said:
Yeah I’ve got around 5k at .60 average.  Kicking myself for not having 10x that.   
My average is almost half of that and I hate myself.

So we all basically have 5k shares?

If it did pan out, we're talking a price target that easily makes our 5k shares worth 6 figures, imo. Plus the other stuff, you know, the stuff we supposedly bought it for like HIV and Breast Cancer treatments.

 
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