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Housing inventories have to be climbing....that can't be good.  I worry that housing prices are going to be the next drop and will have a significant negative impact.  I hope I'm wrong.
I could see this happening—and once it does—I will be looking to acquire another investment property or two.   The pool of buyers might be shrinking—but the pool of renters will probably go up in the next several years.   A moderate to significant drop in the price of housing will be an opportunity just like when the stock market hit its bottom.   

 
@Todem you give a great perspective, just curious though, back in the day (you know, a week ago...lol).  With BLMN sounded like you were long and there was a previous post somewhere higher where you liked them getting back much higher (maybe someone else).

Did I misread or was the sudden profit too much to resist selling and taking the money off the table?

(Learning in this thread, so, I'll hang up and listen)
65% of profit staring me in the face in under a couple of weeks.......sorry....but that is something I take. Especially on a stock that I would have never touched if we did not have this rapid downturn. 

It typically takes years to get gains like that on a stock that I invest in. If you look over my master list.....BLMN, MGM and CCL and DAL are speculative high stressed high fliers. The master list.....all long positions. Not going in and out. Stocks like this. We make trades and this is only in my personal account.

I took the money and ran. And I am sure I will be able to buy back in again....this market volatility is not done. Not in the least bit.

 
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I think I mentioned in this thread my niece was trying to sell her home and I thought it would go poorly during the pandemic. Contract the day after she listed at asking price. Over 400k. People dgaf 

 
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I could see this happening—and once it does—I will be looking to acquire another investment property or two.   The pool of buyers might be shrinking—but the pool of renters will probably go up in the next several years.   A moderate to significant drop in the price of housing will be an opportunity just like when the stock market hit its bottom.   
It all depends where you live. In my neighborhood we only have 2 homes for sale and i will be a third in June after I close on my new home. My house will not last more than 30-45 days.

Extremely high demand for my neighborhood.....no inventory, record low interest rates. And the average home price in my broward suburb (Parkland which is a highly desirable city) is 650K. My home will be listed for 565K and will not last. I paid 375K for the record back in 2009. 

The key is what will it appraise for. Because lendable value is what the banks use....we could think it is worth ABC...but the bank giving the mortgage will tell the buyer...it is lendable on this value. So I expect to end up with 550K as my sale price based on comps in my neighborhood.

 
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I could see this happening—and once it does—I will be looking to acquire another investment property or two.   The pool of buyers might be shrinking—but the pool of renters will probably go up in the next several years.   A moderate to significant drop in the price of housing will be an opportunity just like when the stock market hit its bottom.   
I think you will see the first time home buyer market (homes under 450K) get hit the hardest. That is where I see the biggest job loss or recession hurting the most. The move up buyer.....there has never been a better time to move up with mortgage rates this low. So you may take a 7-10% hit in a short term downturn in housing.....but over 10 years....you will be fine.

So I think if you are an investor and want rental properties.....which is your sweet spot...you are ready to pounce in the next 6-8 months when that segment of the market get’s stressed in short sales and dumping. Agree with that. You may get a few in the move up market too but not the same amount of numbers as in the entry level segment.

 
Action in CYDY makes no sense.  Stock acts terribly.  Great patient results and the stock trades up 10%+ in Germany and is now unchanged.  
I have to think getting listed would help. I would think that would be a priority of theirs right now. Think about all the mentions people here have had about having issues purchasing on various platforms. Also opens them up more institutionally.

 
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Seems to me what led the market up over the past decade is not what is fueling this run. This is begin fueled by the really beaten down stocks.

 
buncha nice houses went on the market here,, honestly not trying to visit someone else's home during a pandemic though
Some good houses and good investment properties have popped up  in our neighborhood.  Sadly, already have cash tied up in a rental and don't feel like moving to a bigger house at the moment.  

 
Inventories have been extremely below normal for four years now.  A slight increase isn't a bad thing.   Not seeing it here. We have inventory and pendings rise from the week before.
Same here in Denver, over 20% of inventory was removed from / taken off the market in the last 2 weeks of March. People are spooked to sell and what buyers there are, are fighting over what little is available. We are near an all-time low for seasonal inventory, no one wants people coming in their homes or they are worried about losing their job, etc. etc. I think it's going to be a very weird year with probably multiple offers and big increases (we are currently 7% over last year which is insane.) Followed by a glut once everything settles down and the real economic pain sets in.
 

Biggest issue right now is lending, I know a ton of smaller and private lenders that have tightened up considerably or are not lending at all. Take a look at Chad's comments in the mortgage thread, non-QM, jumbo mortgages, etc. are dead. Way too much uncertainty right now and massive increase in bank overlays like increased Credit Rating requirements, etc. will knock a lot of 1st time buyers out.

 
I think I mentioned in this thread my niece was trying to sell her home and I thought it would go poorly during the pandemic. Contract the day after she listed at asking price. Over 400k. People dgaf 
12 days ago I listed a home on a Saturday at 2pm.   By 7pm, six groups had gone to see it.  One offer came in 7k over asking.  Three groups came in Sunday by 11 am.  We took the offer from Sat at 2pm.  I've since had two agents message me they have a cash buyer if the deal falls.

I can see the very high end price areas take a small hit.  Rates are too low for the lower priced stuff to take a hit.  

 
I have to think getting listed would help. I would think that would be a priority of theirs right now. Think about all the mentions people here have had about having issues purchasing on various platforms. Also opens them up more institutionally.
They're all over it but they need a higher stock price and more cash.  They have to continue to execute to for the stock price to go up and they have to secure one of the loans they've mentioned for the cash.  Alternatively, if the drug is approved by the FDA for C19, both issues should take care of themselves.  

 
Same here in Denver, over 20% of inventory was removed from / taken off the market in the last 2 weeks of March. People are spooked to sell and what buyers there are, are fighting over what little is available. We are near an all-time low for seasonal inventory, no one wants people coming in their homes or they are worried about losing their job, etc. etc. I think it's going to be a very weird year with probably multiple offers and big increases (we are currently 7% over last year which is insane.) Followed by a glut once everything settles down and the real economic pain sets in.
 

Biggest issue right now is lending, I know a ton of smaller and private lenders that have tightened up considerably or are not lending at all. Take a look at Chad's comments in the mortgage thread, non-QM, jumbo mortgages, etc. are dead. Way too much uncertainty right now and massive increase in bank overlays like increased Credit Rating requirements, etc. will knock a lot of 1st time buyers out.
I am getting a JUMBO loan....no issues. Closing June 6th most likely. All depends on your market and credit and income. Not dead at all. First time homebuyers.....another story. But move up buyers should be fine. As long as you qualify. 

 
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They're all over it but they need a higher stock price and more cash.  They have to continue to execute to for the stock price to go up and they have to secure one of the loans they've mentioned for the cash.  Alternatively, if the drug is approved by the FDA for C19, both issues should take care of themselves.  
I thought it was $2/sh

 
Same here in Denver, over 20% of inventory was removed from / taken off the market in the last 2 weeks of March. People are spooked to sell and what buyers there are, are fighting over what little is available. We are near an all-time low for seasonal inventory, no one wants people coming in their homes or they are worried about losing their job, etc. etc. I think it's going to be a very weird year with probably multiple offers and big increases (we are currently 7% over last year which is insane.) Followed by a glut once everything settles down and the real economic pain sets in.
 

Biggest issue right now is lending, I know a ton of smaller and private lenders that have tightened up considerably or are not lending at all. Take a look at Chad's comments in the mortgage thread, non-QM, jumbo mortgages, etc. are dead. Way too much uncertainty right now and massive increase in bank overlays like increased Credit Rating requirements, etc. will knock a lot of 1st time buyers out.
Right.  I think this is going to be a big problem.  The pool of buyers and potential buyers has shrunk.  With unemployment spiking, furloughs being handed out and small business owners being shuttered the logical conclusion is a reduction in buyers.  That's not good.  

Also not good has to be the number of people desperate to get out of population dense areas like NYC, SFO, Chicago etc.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I have to think housing is the next shoe to drop.  

 
CNBC interview with Chamath echoes my sentiment in a much more eloquent way. Essentially, that we aren't employing capitalism now. Going to have a lot of zombie companies. Bailout isn't making people whole, just rewarding bad behavior in credit markets. 

I'm no Bernie supporter but at least he was honest about what he wanted to do. If we're going to do socialism, I'd rather money go to consumers than companies where people take their cut along the way as the money goes through the system. 

ETA: "You do not make the people whole by plugging corporate balance sheets and buying illiquid financial assets . . . that benefits hedge funds, banks" and "props up zombie companies".

 
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12 days ago I listed a home on a Saturday at 2pm.   By 7pm, six groups had gone to see it.  One offer came in 7k over asking.  Three groups came in Sunday by 11 am.  We took the offer from Sat at 2pm.  I've since had two agents message me they have a cash buyer if the deal falls.

I can see the very high end price areas take a small hit.  Rates are too low for the lower priced stuff to take a hit.  
Boise is a hot spot....maybe THE hottest spot for real estate, right?   Think I read that somewhere.  Boise might benefit from people leaving larger cities....my cousin is packing up and leaving SFO.  His family lives in Boise and he's considering buying there.  

Rates are low but lending standards are going to tighten.  The lower priced stuff is going to have a shrinking pool of buyers, imo.  Would love nothing more than to be wrong here.

 
I am getting a JUMBO loan....no issues. Closing June 6th most likely. All depends on your market and credit and income. Not dead at all. First time homebuyers.....another story. But move up buyers should be fine. As long as you qualify. 
I was looking at becoming one of these soon. What's the word here?

 
Boise is a hot spot....maybe THE hottest spot for real estate, right?   Think I read that somewhere.  Boise might benefit from people leaving larger cities....my cousin is packing up and leaving SFO.  His family lives in Boise and he's considering buying there.  

Rates are low but lending standards are going to tighten.  The lower priced stuff is going to have a shrinking pool of buyers, imo.  Would love nothing more than to be wrong here.
Been the hottest for 2+ years now.    SF, SAC, SEA, DEN...  they are all selling their $800+k homes and buying $400+k homes here are pocketing the difference.  Actually had people from 12 different states at an Open House three months ago.   Lending tightened last week, but seems to be loosening back up this week. 

 
Blood Samples at Day 0, 3 and 7 for Severely Ill COVID-19 Patients Clearly Indicate Leronlimab Has Significantly Reduced the Cytokine Storm in All (7) Patients and All Patients Demonstrated Immunological Benefit at Both Day 3 and Day 7

BY GlobeNewswire
— 6:15 AM ET 04/09/2020

VANCOUVER, Washington, April 09, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CytoDyn Inc. ( CYDY) , (“CytoDyn” or the “Company"), a late-stage biotechnology company developing leronlimab (PRO 140), a CCR5 antagonist with the potential for multiple therapeutic indications, announced today results of immunological metrics from blood samples of seven severely ill COVID-19 patients after seven days of treatment with leronlimab.

Bruce Patterson, M.D., Chief Executive Officer and founder of IncellDx, a diagnostic partner and advisor to CytoDyn ( CYDY), stated, “The Day-7 results from these patients demonstrates even more dramatic immune restoration especially in the CD8 T-lymphocyte population, the major immune cell responsible for eliminating virally infected cells. In addition, there is a further dramatic reduction in the critical cytokine storm cytokines IL-6, TNF-alpha. Collectively, these results are correlating with patients’ recovery. Some patients have been removed from ventilators, including one patient who was taken off of a heart/lung bypass machine. Critically ill patients are experiencing the benefit of extubating within 7 days of treatment with leronlimab.”

Following recent clearance by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Company is enrolling patients in two clinical trials, a Phase 2 trial for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients, and a Phase 2b/3 trial for severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients. The Phase 2b/3 clinical trial is for 390 patients, double blinded with 2:1 ratio (active drug to placebo ratio). Patients enrolled in this trial are expected to be administered leronlimab for two weeks with the primary endpoint being the mortality rate at 28 days and a secondary endpoint of mortality rate at 14 days. The Company will perform an interim analysis on the data from 50 patients.

Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of CytoDyn ( CYDY), commented, “We are very pleased that leronlimab appears to facilitate an immunological restoration in these patients and we are sharing our data with the FDA in order to hopefully accelerate the access of our drug to many more patients in need. With more than 20 EINDs approved by the FDA, we are receiving an overwhelming number of EIND requests from all over the country.”

 
I was looking at becoming one of these soon. What's the word here?
I think as long as your income is solid, credit is excellent and you have some assets...you should be ok. Don’t get too freaked out. These effing banks are borrowing at zero at the window......cough it up. Lend and stimulate the economy. 

I hate big banks. Can’t stand them. Greedy pigs. 

 
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Severely Ill COVID-19 Patient at Leading Southern California Medical Center Extubated Three Days After Treatment with CytoDyn’s Leronlimab; Two Moderate COVID-19 Patients Removed from External Oxygen Following One Day of Treatment with Leronlimab and Discharged from Hospital

BY GlobeNewswire
— 6:00 AM ET 04/09/2020

VANCOUVER, Washington, April 09, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CytoDyn Inc. ( CYDY) , (“CytoDyn” or the “Company"), a late-stage biotechnology company developing leronlimab (PRO 140), a CCR5 antagonist with the potential for multiple therapeutic indications, announced today a patient with severe COVID-19 under the care of a leading medical center in Southern California exhibited clinical improvement after treatment with the Company’s investigational new drug, leronlimab. The patient was intubated and in critical condition in the ICU, and had received an IL-6 blocking agent four days earlier without apparent benefit. Concomitantly, the patient also received either an antiretroviral agent or placebo as part of an unrelated clinical trial. With no clinical improvement observed over the ensuing four days, the patient then received leronlimab under an emergency IND granted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Within twenty-four hours of receiving an injection of leronlimab, the patient showed significant clinical improvement and was removed from external ventilation three days later. This outcome is consistent with that observed in severely ill COVID-19 patients treated with leronlimab at a leading medical center in New York City.

Additionally, two patients at the same Southern California medical center with moderate COVID-19, were treated with leronlimab under an EIND and subsequently revealed clinical improvement. These patients were removed from external oxygen support one day following leronlimab treatment, and subsequently discharged from the hospital. Based on these results, an additional four patients with moderate COVID-19 have been administered leronlimab and results are pending.

 
From Tony Dwyer: BofA received the requested info but with no timetable. They said there were 230,000 applications so far as of yesterday. This helps explain the Fed move - the draw on funds is extraordinary

Can someone unpack that? Todem

 
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Been the hottest for 2+ years now.    SF, SAC, SEA, DEN...  they are all selling their $800+k homes and buying $400+k homes here are pocketing the difference.  Actually had people from 12 different states at an Open House three months ago.   Lending tightened last week, but seems to be loosening back up this week. 
:thumbup:

If things return to normal, we're hoping to take a trip to see my aunt/uncle/cousins in Boise and then head up to their cabin which I think is near McCall.  Idaho is beautiful.  

 
:thumbup:

If things return to normal, we're hoping to take a trip to see my aunt/uncle/cousins in Boise and then head up to their cabin which I think is near McCall.  Idaho is beautiful.  
Cabin in Cascade or Donnelly?  They are just south of McCall.    Would be cool to get you, jamny and siff and have some  :banned:

 
From Tony Dwyer: BofA received the requested info but with no timetable. They said there were 230,000 applications so far as of yesterday. This helps explain the Fed move - the draw on funds is extraordinary

Can someone unpack that? @Todem? 
applications for small business loans via the CARES act I believe.  I know B of A is the leader right now in processing these loans.

 
Smart people: what happens when a huge swath of people don’t pay back these loans?
The Fed forgives them. The Fed announced they'll take on the loans that are originated by the banks. So not sure why they even put the banks in the middle.

The Main Street Lending Program will enhance support for small and mid-sized businesses that were in good financial standing before the crisis by offering 4-year loans to companies employing up to 10,000 workers or with revenues of less than $2.5 billion. Principal and interest payments will be deferred for one year. Eligible banks may originate new Main Street loans or use Main Street loans to increase the size of existing loans to businesses. Banks will retain a 5 percent share, selling the remaining 95 percent to the Main Street facility, which will purchase up to $600 billion of loans. Firms seeking Main Street loans must commit to make reasonable efforts to maintain payroll and retain workers. Borrowers must also follow compensation, stock repurchase, and dividend restrictions that apply to direct loan programs under the CARES Act. Firms that have taken advantage of the PPP may also take out Main Street loans.

 
Been the hottest for 2+ years now.    SF, SAC, SEA, DEN...  they are all selling their $800+k homes and buying $400+k homes here are pocketing the difference.  Actually had people from 12 different states at an Open House three months ago.   Lending tightened last week, but seems to be loosening back up this week. 
That same scenario has been happening for decades in Florida. 

What's new: In South Florida, some northerners are converting snow-bird rentals into buys and some are switching to lower density SFHs, due to fears of COVID-19 in NY and in high density condos in Broward and Palm Beach counties, where amenities aren't accessible. 1,000 people per day were moving to Florida before this crisis. Nonetheless, the experts are predicting a short-term decline in prices. Florida real estate seems like a long-term buy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article241864576.html

 
From Tony Dwyer: BofA received the requested info but with no timetable. They said there were 230,000 applications so far as of yesterday. This helps explain the Fed move - the draw on funds is extraordinary

Can someone unpack that? Todem
SBA Loans.....they are overwhelmed!!!!! The Fed will backstop all this. Whatever it takes.

 
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That same scenario has been happening for decades in Florida. 

What's new: In South Florida, some northerners are converting snow-bird rentals into buys and some are switching to lower density SFHs, due to fears of COVID-19 in NY and in high density condos in Broward and Palm Beach counties, where amenities aren't accessible. 1,000 people per day were moving to Florida before this crisis. Nonetheless, the experts are predicting a short-term decline in prices. Florida real estate seems like a long-term buy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article241864576.html
I am already expecting a bidding war on my house in two months before school starts. I live in the very best public school district in Broward county.  We are talking a stampede on my house once I list it. 

 
Picking a 3x ETF right now could be huge, but I don't feel like gambling. Which way do we shoot to towards the close, I get the feeling it's going to be huge one way or another. Looks like it'll continue to go up, but head fake?

 
Will Meade

@realwillmeade

The Schiller CAPE PE today is 26! When stocks bottomed in 2009 after the great recession CAPE PE was 13 At the 1987 bottom CAPE PE was 15 At great depression 1932 bottom CAPE PE was 8

 
I could see this happening—and once it does—I will be looking to acquire another investment property or two.   The pool of buyers might be shrinking—but the pool of renters will probably go up in the next several years.   A moderate to significant drop in the price of housing will be an opportunity just like when the stock market hit its bottom.   
Won't be an issue here, this area is largely kept up by the federal presence.

But I do wonder about our favorite vacation spot. Nobody is allowed to rent from now though June. That has to hurt the market some. I don't know if we'll see significant decreases in price but I'm trying to see if there are any REIT opportunities in the local area. I'd even consider buying a place if the prices decreased enough (but I doubt that happens)

 

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