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Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

Jobber said:
So did I miss the boat on Marriott? Still worth picking up a few shares on the (possible) way up?
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On what principle are folks thinking we're ready to start going back to normal life?  

Sure seems like we have no clear plan for how society can re-open without yet again having huge spikes in infections and deaths and strains on healthcare system.

Until we get some clarity on how things return to normal, I'm not sure I'd be buying anything right now expecting further increases.  I'm no stock market guru, but I can't see a path forward to the society we had months ago yet.  Not until we have anti-body testing in place and in numbers, contact tracing capabilities, etc.

What we have now is primarily some injections into the market, with little real progress being made on the underlying issue which is people being able to return to "normal" life until a vaccine is released.

 
Following some encouraging signs this week on the demand for ventilators and hospitalizations, Mayor Bill de Blasio on Thursday laid out a rough roadmap to normalcy.

Beginning on Monday, New York City will release data on the number of people admitted to hospitals and intensive care units for suspected COVID-19 conditions.

He said those two data points, along with the number of people who test positive for the disease, must show a downward trend for 10 days to two weeks before New Yorkers can see the restrictions due to coronavirus relaxed.

”All three have to move together," he said, during a press conference, adding that the city needed to see a "clean, clear pattern."

The mayor did not foresee any major changes in rules being possible until May or June.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
Cabin in Cascade or Donnelly?  They are just south of McCall.    Would be cool to get you, jamny and siff and have some  :banned:
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Cascade Lake.  Never been, but it's been a standing offer for us to go any time.  They built it themselves.  Also built the house they live in Boise, which overlooks the city.  Pretty clever and ambitious folks.  None of those qualities were passed along to me. 

 
adonis said:
On what principle are folks thinking we're ready to start going back to normal life?  

Sure seems like we have no clear plan for how society can re-open without yet again having huge spikes in infections and deaths and strains on healthcare system.

Until we get some clarity on how things return to normal, I'm not sure I'd be buying anything right now expecting further increases.  I'm no stock market guru, but I can't see a path forward to the society we had months ago yet.  Not until we have anti-body testing in place and in numbers, contact tracing capabilities, etc.

What we have now is primarily some injections into the market, with little real progress being made on the underlying issue which is people being able to return to "normal" life until a vaccine is released.
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Agreed. But when did the stock market start making sense in the last few weeks?

 
I absolutely don't get the market.   the dow 5000 point recovery from 18-23 doesn't make sense.   Even with government bailouts, only select businesses are seeing any revenue right now.. unemployment numbers are going to be massive...  defaults are going to be big....  and everyone knows this but the big money is still buying anyway?    Don't get it.    

And yeah, I sold everything... EVERYTHING at dow 21, so I'm pissed.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
Been the hottest for 2+ years now.    SF, SAC, SEA, DEN...  they are all selling their $800+k homes and buying $400+k homes here are pocketing the difference.  Actually had people from 12 different states at an Open House three months ago.   Lending tightened last week, but seems to be loosening back up this week. 
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Shameless Plug:  When Y'all want to come check out Boise and need an Airbnb - give me a PM.  My wife has one 5 blocks from downtown in the Boise North End Neighborhood.  Less than 1 mile to the Boise Foothills hiking/biking trails.  Super modern and a cool place - remodeled by the "Boise Boys" who have a show on HGTV.

 
General Malaise said:
Cascade Lake.  Never been, but it's been a standing offer for us to go any time.  They built it themselves.  Also built the house they live in Boise, which overlooks the city.  Pretty clever and ambitious folks.  None of those qualities were passed along to me. 
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Have camped their twice.  Beautiful place and nice lake.   Very jealous.  Would love to have a place there as a second home.   If you go, Gold Forks Hot Springs is close by and a must.

 
sporthenry said:
Will Meade

@realwillmeade

The Schiller CAPE PE today is 26! When stocks bottomed in 2009 after the great recession CAPE PE was 13 At the 1987 bottom CAPE PE was 15 At great depression 1932 bottom CAPE PE was 8
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Residential real estate will be a lagging indicator because the damage is uncertain. We do not know how long or short the job loss nor how deep it will go.

stay tuned as IMO we are a good 4-6 months away from a residential real estate mild correction.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
Have camped their twice.  Beautiful place and nice lake.   Very jealous.  Would love to have a place there as a second home.   If you go, Gold Forks Hot Springs is close by and a must.
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My sister went about 8 years ago and had a blast.  Her favorite part was the amount of wildlife that came around the house.  There's a fox that my aunt calls "Red" who hangs around.  As a wildlife lover, that would be so cool to experience with the kids.  

 
Todem said:
I am getting a JUMBO loan....no issues. Closing June 6th most likely. All depends on your market and credit and income. Not dead at all. First time homebuyers.....another story. But move up buyers should be fine. As long as you qualify. 
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Three mortgage brokers I work with have nothing right now for jumbo. High net worth people with banking relationships have a shot at something with there bank

 
sporthenry said:
Will Meade

@realwillmeade

The Schiller CAPE PE today is 26! When stocks bottomed in 2009 after the great recession CAPE PE was 13 At the 1987 bottom CAPE PE was 15 At great depression 1932 bottom CAPE PE was 8
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And how in the world are they calculation E exactly?

No one knows wtf E is.  Obviously this ratio is going to be nuts the country has basically been out of business for a month now :wall:

 
guru_007 said:
And how in the world are they calculation E exactly?

No one knows wtf E is.  Obviously this ratio is going to be nuts the country has basically been out of business for a month now :wall:
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It's based on past earnings so it avoids any noise with future earnings, precisely the 10-year inflation adjusted earnings. If it was based on '20 earnings, it'd be infinite but don't think anyone is advocating that. 

 
I sold bloomin at 9.50. Kept saying I would hold but you gotta be an ###hole not to take 50% return. I’ll buy more at 7

 
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Dentist said:
I absolutely don't get the market.   the dow 5000 point recovery from 18-23 doesn't make sense.   Even with government bailouts, only select businesses are seeing any revenue right now.. unemployment numbers are going to be massive...  defaults are going to be big....  and everyone knows this but the big money is still buying anyway?    Don't get it.    

And yeah, I sold everything... EVERYTHING at dow 21, so I'm pissed.
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Holy #### Dentist.....never thought you for one to panic sell like that. You will have a shot to get back in lower than today.....but don’t time it man. It never makes a lot of sense to begin with.

 
Todem said:
SBA Loans.....they are overwhelmed!!!!! The Fed will backstop all this. Whatever it takes.
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There are a lot of reasons to #### on Big Banks, a lot of them valid, but being slow trying to suddenly dish out thousands of loans is not one of them. Had a Zoom call with two buddies that work at Big Banks here in Charlotte and they are just overwhelmed trying to get everything going. People are working a ton and they're re-purposing some folks into the loan business that normally don't do that. They started with existing customers first because that's faster. Less paperwork to fill out and more confidence in default probability, regardless of the Fed saying they would eat defaults. Not sure the banks completely buy that yet. But it made sense to start with existing customers and they got #### on for doing that. Can't win sometimes. Of course, they seldom "win" in most eyes, lol. 

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
There are a lot of reasons to #### on Big Banks, a lot of them valid, but being slow trying to suddenly dish out thousands of loans is not one of them. Had a Zoom call with two buddies that work at Big Banks here in Charlotte and they are just overwhelmed trying to get everything going. People are working a ton and they're re-purposing some folks into the loan business that normally don't do that. They started with existing customers first because that's faster. Less paperwork to fill out and more confidence in default probability, regardless of the Fed saying they would eat defaults. Not sure the banks completely buy that yet. But it made sense to start with existing customers and they got #### on for doing that. Can't win sometimes. Of course, they seldom "win" in most eyes, lol. 
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Oh I am not talking about the soldiers on the ground and front lines. I am talking about the policies and how they always tighten the hell out of lending when it is most beneficial for consumers. Rates are super low.....and they are borrowing short term at the window for nothing. 

Lend the gosh darn money to people who qualify and stop d***ing around. They are pigs. I am talking about the residential mortgage industry...not the Government SBA programs. 

 
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Todem said:
Oh I am not talking about the soldiers on the ground and front lines. I am talking about the policies and how they always tighten the hell out of lending when it is most beneficial for consumers. Rates are super low.....and they are borrowing short term at the window for nothing. 

Lend the gosh darn money to people who qualify and stop d***ing around. They are pigs. I am talking about the residential mortgage industry...not the Government SBA programs. 
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I know a lot of people feel this way, but I don't get it. They make money by giving loans, how does making fewer of them make them pigs? Don't you think they want to be making more loans, but the environment is riskier now?

I think people overestimate who "qualifies" during crazy times like these. People are losing their jobs at never before seen rates, would you step in and hand out huge sums of money at low rates in this environment?

 
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Golf Guy 69 said:
Are we sure it's coming back down?
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I increased my exposure to stocks about 10% this morning just so I could test whether it was going to be a local maximum and plummet from here.  So far so good.  The market will absolutely turn now.  So any shorts here are golden for a while.

 
Dentist said:
I absolutely don't get the market.   the dow 5000 point recovery from 18-23 doesn't make sense.   Even with government bailouts, only select businesses are seeing any revenue right now.. unemployment numbers are going to be massive...  defaults are going to be big....  and everyone knows this but the big money is still buying anyway?    Don't get it.    

And yeah, I sold everything... EVERYTHING at dow 21, so I'm pissed.
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I mean the level and riskiness of the bailouts are pretty ridiculous. I suspect it won't be as much of a backstop as people think but still seems like the government is looking to socialize losses and puts corporations ahead of its people. 

I mean you take the $25bn in their secondary credit facility, lever it up 7x and you're at $175bn which is 15% of the US HY market. The Primary facility can do $50bn at 7-10x leverage so could buy another $350bn of of fallen angels. So the Fed could own half of the HY market if it wanted. That is ridiculous. Now I suspect they'll mostly go IG and this is mostly to just instill confidence in the HY market but it clearly shows they're willing to backstop this risky debt. 

 
humpback said:
I know a lot of people feel this way, but I don't get it. They make money by giving loans, how does making fewer of them make them pigs? Don't you think they want to be making more loans, but the environment is riskier now?

I think people overestimate who "qualifies" during crazy times like these. People are losing their jobs at never before seen rates, would you step in and hand out huge sums of money at low rates in this environment?
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I am sorry but I had some first hand experience  with big banks and know exactly how they operate. They were giving away money to anyone that breathed at much higher rates, packaged up all this junk.....and leveraged it to the hilt then almost destroyed the entire financial system. 

Now TARP was a brilliant idea and saved the country and all of it was paid back with interest. 

BUT......they should have broken up these super banks and regionalized the entire system creating far more competition at the local level and lending would be in a much better place. 

Here we are again......and banks are well capitalized this time. Well capitalized.....and now they are getting cold feet lending to highly qualified home buyers? And they are borrowing at zero? And that is what is going on BTW......they are just shutting down programs on qualified buyers. It is horse s***.  I totally am with you not taking risk on buyers who are shaky. But they are simply going into the fetal curl here and helping shut this economy down even more. 

Greedy. Sorry. Pure greed here. The big banks are full of ####. 

 
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Sand said:
I increased my exposure to stocks about 10% this morning just so I could test whether it was going to be a local maximum and plummet from here.  So far so good.  The market will absolutely turn now.  So any shorts here are golden for a while.
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I wussed out and made 52%.  Just simple looking to get back in.  Thing is a cash cow, lol.

I will not look at the market again until Monday.

 
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Golf Guy 69 said:
I wussed out and made 52%.  Just simple looking to get back in.  Thing is a cash cow, lol.

I will not look at the market again until Monday.
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I'm down massive amounts and I expect whatever I do will make things worse.  Well behind the market at this point.  I'm positive what I did today will earn suitable punishment.

 
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