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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Golf Guy 69
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Sorry man, had this happen to me in 2008-2009. Hopefully there's another leg down coming for you that I failed to catch back then.
Varies by location, high value cities like SF are at the top of the list where a Jumbo is considered a loan of 765,600. Minimum Jumbo for most of the country went up this year to $510,400.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I sold all of my BLMN. I had planned on owning it until August or September. I'm not willing to hold restaurant stocks into next winter when Coronavirus The Sequel comes. With these gains, the stock isn't likely to go much higher in the short term but it could easily lose 30% in a matter of days. So it isn't a good stock long term or short term at this point.
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2 hours ago - Mancini - Critical few hours coming here in $SPX. We made it to the 2780 zone i've called for all week and have now overshot- this is key resistance of a bearish wedge from the March low. Bears want to see this collapse back under 2780 for the close to keep this downside pattern in play
The issues are that the banks and services are on the hook for paying the investors and the bar wars have been given a three month window where they don’t have to make payments. The last thing they want to do now is to write a new loan and then have to carry those payments for the first three monthsThe issues are that the banks and services are on the hook for paying the investors and the bar wars have been given a three month window where they don’t have to make payments. The last thing they want to do now is to write a new loan and then have to carry those payments for the first three months
From one of your other posts, your loan has already been in the works for a while. Based on your posts you probably are a FBG with high net worth liquidity which means you are fine.
But for all other borrowers Jumbo's are dead. Right now you need a minimum $250,000 in liquid assets deposited at the lending bank for most to even consider extending jumbo credit to someone at this time. Most lenders aren't even bothering to offer jumbo right now, especially after the largest buyer of Jumbo's in the entire marketplace (WF) completely stopped buying a week ago.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Todem
Footballguy
Holy crappola. That is awful.
Higher end real estate market is on total hold now. This is a #### show......but it will be temporary fortunately. But this is really turning into a #### show.
Todem
Footballguy
My thoughts exactly. Take those gains and run.....and wait again for a dip. Rinse and repeat.
I think we found a nice little onion to peel while we go through this bear market here for the next several months......
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah all of our jumbo options are gone. Only ones we're closing have already been locked...
dkp993
Footballguy
The article does make a good case that they are chasing the bright shiny objects in front of them. Obviously I have no idea on the inner workings of Cytodyn and this may or not be true. But it’s hard to argue it doesn’t look that way from the outside.
Todem
Footballguy
I feel very fortunate then. Thank god we started this last year (New Construction Purchase).
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Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I really don't care for the Case Schiller PE because it takes into account data that should not be a factor. It takes the last 10 years earnings average. I don't care what my house was worth 10 years ago.
If you were following the Case Schiller Index as a guide you would have missed almost this entire last bull market because it showed it as overvalued mostly because 2008 near zero earnings were still included in the calculation.
With all that being said, I am not a buyer right now with S&P 500 at 2800. Using 2019 earnings of 163 that gives you a trailing PE of 17 which is good value when considering where interest rates are. However, nobody knows where 2020 earnings will fall and I am positive they will be lower than 2019. Yes, it will probably be 1 year of lower earnings and then rebound nicely in 2021 but I am not sure how the market will react if we get $120 2020 earnings.
The wild card is the excess liquidity the Fed is pumping in. This could help propel the market higher in the short term.
We all know the mistakes of the past, but that supports my point- if they keep lending right now as if nothing is different we'll be right back there. I think your definition of "highly qualified" home buyers is much different from reality. Again, why wouldn't they want to lend to highly qualified home buyers when that's how they make a good chunk of their money? How does making fewer loans, thus less money, make them "greedy"?
The economy is shut down right now. Most people aren't nearly as "qualified" as you think IMO. The government can step in and back these unqualified buyers (as they are) but it would be foolish to expect a business to do so.
CR69
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I think you are seeing this bear market rally hit it’s finale today. Next week I expect some brisk selling and another round of volatility on the staircase down....how far? Who knows. But the market seems fair value right now based on 2020. And in fact might be a little expensive with the economy still on a shut down and still.....no definite re-open date.
I will ride this out as usual and just sit tight on deploying what little cash we have reserved for the market (I am closing on a home June 6th so that has been sitting in cash since January of this year....yep we sold at the start of the year to build cash for my closing in June and it was fortuitous and make no mistake I was tempted to push all that at the lows......but I simply cannot do that. That would have been above my own risk tolerance knowing I am closing on my forever home).
Crazy freaking year folks......damn.
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adonis
Footballguy
Why should I not sell a reasonable amount (10%) of index funds tracking overall market right now?
i have absolutely no reason to believe whatever optimism is there, in the markets, is justified or will last.
would it be crazy to sell 10-20% and look for opportunity to come back in soon at lower cost?
i have absolutely no reason to believe whatever optimism is there, in the markets, is justified or will last.
would it be crazy to sell 10-20% and look for opportunity to come back in soon at lower cost?
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Todem
Footballguy
Yes we are all good. We have the commitment from the investor. Just waiting to lock the rate 30 days away from closing.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I was going to ask about this - do we know much about their inventory/supply chain/capacity to manufacture?
Markets closed tomorrow.
Revshark - We have what is called a 'shooting star' pattern forming today. Which is a reversal pattern on candlestick charts when there is an intraday spike that reverses. Downside confirmation will be needed on Monday.
mancini said the same 2 days ago.
Revshark - We have what is called a 'shooting star' pattern forming today. Which is a reversal pattern on candlestick charts when there is an intraday spike that reverses. Downside confirmation will be needed on Monday.
mancini said the same 2 days ago.
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![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
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Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I'm with you. I think there will be an opportunity to put cash to work in the coming weeks. Most of my clients are invested but I do have quite a few with cash ready to invest should we get below 2400.
Earnings next week starting with JPM on Tuesday will be interesting. Nobody knows when the economy will reopen and if some break through treatment or vaccine happens the market will bounce accordingly. Crazy times!
Todem
Footballguy
Excellent points. But the jumbo market has completely dried up and those are many of your highly qualified buyers that are being shafted right now.
I just have a lot of trust issues with the super banks. They are incredibly difficult to deal with and simply make it incredibly hard to do business with.
I remember they pulled the rug out from under me back in 2009 3 weeks before I closed on my current home. Was a horrible time......and they did it because I changed employers.
I realize not a good time to do it. But I did it in April 2009.....my closing was 9/30/09 and they knew I changed employers and waited till 3 weeks to decide....well we are not doing your loan....go somewhere else. I will not name them......but it was insane. I scrambled for 2 weeks and found a small community bank that threw me a lifeline....but with 50% down. I went crazy......but we refinanced less than 9 months later.....and that bank that pulled the rug out....wanted my refi.
FU.
Crazy.....all the banks who simply would not touch me....because of a job change in my same line of work would to touch me then....but 9 months later were falling over each other for a refi. “We don’t know how you got in but we want your loan now that you are in the house"
FU
Anyway....not the case this time around.....thank god we have a firm commitment and are all good. We are simply waiting on the home to be finished. But I simply do not trust many banks.....and the Super banks are the worst of the worst when it comes to getting things done.
That is why I have an outstanding mortgage broker. They are the biggest asset you can have when looking for a home. Forget dealing with banks directly.....that is the biggest stress you can put on yourself.
Having a great broker on your side is the only way to go. What you pay for is what you get and it rings so true in terms of purchase mortgages.
Refi’s......is a little different. Your already in the house...but even so...you can get a serious run around dealing direct. Bottom line? Use a great broker.
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Todem
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Me too, although my wife is looking at me like a starting pitcher who has gone 7 really hard, excruciating innings and needs immediate help from the bullpen. I expect tomorrow to be every bit as grueling and taxing as weathering the markets have been the last month.
Capella
Footballguy
Loads of it, unfortunately averages out to 108 I think. Never expected to see it in the 90s.
Todem
Footballguy
It will be in the 140’s late next year. Sit tight.
I love it long term to the upper area and eventually $200 a share. I am talking going long here (3-5 years from now for those targets).
That woman who just spoke on CNBC...Valerie something. Dude she is always buying stocks.....literally every time they talk to her....like this endless supply of freaking cash. LOL I know she manages a fund and what not....and she has been pimping WFC (Wells Fargo) forever (a dog of a bank stock BTW...hate it). I mean...come on lady. Most of us are always invested......we typically only have 10-20% at the most in cash a year to put to work after tax harvesting, rebalancing or what not. But she is always buying...like everyday. I guess she has cash coming into her fund....like all the time. Like no redemptions? Ever?
LOL!!!!!!
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Here’s a fun stock to look at. I don’t own it but it’s on my probably won’t buy it watch list: SFIX
Stock was up almost 20% today, ended up 11%. It’s up 33% this week.
Here are the headlines for it today/last 24 hours:
Coronavirus Rampage Continues: Stitch Fix Calls Off Guidance
Stitch Fix Reveals Significant Logistics Disruption, Withdraws Guidance
Stitch Fix pulls forecast for year on coronavirus uncertainty
I know @Todem thinks we won’t get back to the 3/23 lows, but the disconnect is crazy.
Stock was up almost 20% today, ended up 11%. It’s up 33% this week.
Here are the headlines for it today/last 24 hours:
Coronavirus Rampage Continues: Stitch Fix Calls Off Guidance
Stitch Fix Reveals Significant Logistics Disruption, Withdraws Guidance
Stitch Fix pulls forecast for year on coronavirus uncertainty
I know @Todem thinks we won’t get back to the 3/23 lows, but the disconnect is crazy.
Yeah, obviously not commenting on your specific experience because they all vary and I know plenty of horror stories as well, just commenting more on the idea that big bad banks are somehow "greedy" when they cut back on lending. That logic doesn't make any sense to me, being greedy implies they're making more money (by handing out more loans), which obviously isn't the case (as you can tell from being one of the hardest hit sectors during this).
No argument at all with using a broker, everyone should shop around and find the best deal they can- competition is healthy!
Todem
Footballguy
Agree the disconnect is insane. I think we could easily rip off 20% down from here (get to 20K again on the Dow)...but to get back to 18K we need full on panic and fear of a depression......FED and Federal stimulus took that off the table for a while here and bought us some time to see if the economy can open back up in the next 4-6 weeks.
I am with you on the short term disconnect though. I am not convinced out all we are out of the woods by any means.
It is indeed a crazy time. I haven't seen issues like this since the real estate market imploded and Lehman blew up. One of the reasons the Fed has opened the spigot up so enormously.
At the end of March I was seeing a lot of muni bonds unable to be sold in the market, when that happened there is usually a credit provider that has to step in and buy the bonds but the interest rates when they do so are huge compared to normal rates (was seeing 5 and 6% base rates versus 2 & 3% just a few weeks prior.) Fed jumped in and started buying everything because nobody else would. And these are municipal bonds I am talking about, which are backed by the state and local governments, not corporates. I can only imagine how it was in the corporate world where things are much riskier.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Doh! It's Easter. (Totally forgot)
Now that I think about it, it seems like tomorrow should be a holiday for us at work.
I put some limits at $100. Didn't fill
Market is looking a year out and covid news was better than expected this week
-OZ-
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Is the payment a one-time thing? They doing it in May or are people gonna just start robbing houses?
Last week cases in most states were increasing by over 10% a day. This week that has dropped significantly the social distancing seems to be workingLast week cases in most states were increasing by over 10% a day. This week that has dropped significantly the social distancing seems to be working
Hopefully everyone is getting $1000 a week and unemployment benefits by thenHopefully everyone is getting $1000 a week and unemployment benefits by then
