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BLMN? Heck....I was pimping that as a great trade waiting to happen....was looking at 100%...but you know what...when I see 65% in less than two weeks....I take my money...pat myself on the back....and look for another.....and in fact...BLMN can be that again because it should pull back. 

Chicken out? Naaaaa I never met anyone who was poor for taking big profits. 
Hah no worries I'm just giving everyone a hard time about it.  Just funny to see everyone throwing around 4x and 5x before and then when we get to 1.65x saying "I can't pass that up", as if 65% isn't something you have to pass through to get to 500%.

I definitely went into BLMN with the same mindset I went into CYDY.  A lotto play that could be a huge gainer.  Not something I'm throwing my 401k into and trying to get some nice consistent uptick out of.

 
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12 days ago 99% of analysts were 99% sure it was just a rally that was obviously going back down to re-test the lows.  Then a few days later 80% of analysts were pretty sure it was going back down but maybe not quite to the lows.  Now 50% of analysts think there's some chance we're going back down but most likely not near the lows.

Every study, predictor, and metric has been wrong so far.  At some point maybe the whole hypothesis is just wrong.  Every resistance band that was going to stop the rally in its tracks has fallen and people just come up with a new double shooting star reversal pattern to the charts that is surely going to make the difference this time.  But ultimately at this point all we are left with is trying to compare it to previous crashes with a sample size of FOUR, all of which happened under completely different circumstances and which already differ from this one in very large ways.

So you ask what in the underlying situation that has changed?  The situation that has changed is that when everyone panic sold everything they had no idea what was going to happen and thought we might be looking at something that was going to fundamentally change the way the country worked and throw us into an apocalypse movie.  Realistically now most people expect that by far the most likely scenario is that we just might have to wait a little longer than we'd like to get back to normal, but we will be getting back to normal.

Any good news is met with massive rally and bad news is largely ignored by the market.  Trump went on TV and said we want to start opening by Easter and the market mooned like never before, then he went back on TV and said whoops lol that's not happening and just for kicks here is Dr. Fauci to tell you all that 100,000 Americans are going to die MINIMUM and the market was up 3% on the day.  When April 30th comes and we're not getting back to normal no one will care because everyone knows that's not really happening anyway. 

Q1 and Q2 earnings are likely completely irrelevant at this point.  Priced in doesn't even begin to cover it.  So we're looking at Q3 before companies could even begin to be punished for underperforming and again I am dubious people will even care then, as Starbucks just said they expected to be reporting disappointing numbers in Q3 and even Q4 and their stock was up 3.2% on the day.

The market is forward thinking.  Any time every analyst and every FBG poster is all saying the same thing (like restaurants aren't just going to start operating at full capacity right away) it's something the market already knows.  That's why it fell so hard and so fast in the first place.  I'm a vendor at art festivals and every one of them that I was registered to do this year is already canceled through August.  People already know we're not going back to normal any time soon. 

Look I'm certainly not saying the down ain't coming and guys like Todem obviously know 1000x more about this than me so I would certainly trust what he says over my barely coherent rambling here.  I just think the chances at this point are more like a 50/50 toss-up than the "oh it's for sure coming down it's just a matter of whether it's tomorrow or the day after".  Those tomorrow's and day after's have already passed 5 times by now.  This is just such uncharted territory and so fundamentally different than anything we've seen before.  Does the market care about financials when they know those financials are only temporary and the result of outside forces rather than something fundamentally wrong with the companies?  Lately it certainly hasn't.
There is one thing I know for 100% certainty.....the market will go down. And I did say a few posts back up....I am getting more and more convinced we are not seeing those lows we saw on 3/23

I am simply talking about 10-15% back down again.....and I think the chances of that are far greater than we just keep marching back to where we were before this all happened. Simply too much damage has been done.....and yes the market is forward looking. Back on March 23rd it was pricing in.....a borderline short term depression. The federal reserve is throwing the kitchen sink at this. But even so......fundamentals tell me short term we are for sure going into a moderate recession (a self induced one at that but we had little choice). The market is still trying to price in what that will look like. I think the market is getting more and more confident we are not plunging into a depression and that is where all these stock prices were a few weeks ago. But....looking at my master list...a lot of the stocks are rebounded sharply from those lows and feel fairly valued again....where as before the crisis.....it was quite frothy. So a 10-15% retrace is very much inevitable to me. And that is ok. It is normal. By year end I expect the market to be hovering around here....maybe a little bit higher.

Bull Case - Dow 24,500

Base Case - Dow 23,200

Bear Case - Dow 21,500

I have a high conviction on the Bull case by year end. Call that the optimist in me....and also the Fed put being a strong influence in asset prices and people starving for yield because I see no way they do any raises.....for at least 8-12 months. 

But your right about one thing......the market typically does the opposite of all the consensus. And I am a contrarian 95% of the time. But theres not one market expert that can sit here with a straight face and say they know for certain what will happen over the next few months with this virus.....I am not a doctor and neither is anyone managing money. 

We deal in years. And long term.....no worries. I am only trading this with a few of those stressed stocks (MGM, BLMN and I sold TXRH as well for a nice chunk). At some point I will step into a cruise line and airline......which are still down 75% from their all time highs. It will take years to get back to those....but so what...that is for my funny money that I am willing too lose. 

My master list are my core holdings and I posted that list back when there was blood on the streets and was buying them with confidence. And still will......but at this point? I can wait for another retrace because again I am 100% certain the market will go down again in the short term. When? Does not really matter....next week...next month...but it will happen. When we least expect it. So be ready!!!

 
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Hah no worries I'm just giving everyone a hard time about it.  Just funny to see everyone throwing around 4x and 5x before and then when we get to 1.65x saying "I can't pass that up", as if 65% isn't something you have to pass through to get to 500%.

I definitely went into BLMN with the same mindset I went into CYDY.  A lotto play that could be a huge gainer.  Not something I'm throwing my 401k into and trying to get some nice consistent uptick out of.
I was touting a double on it.....nothing more than that. Same for MGM. So when I see a move like that in under two weeks? Yeah...time to bail and book the profit. There will be others. Like I said I am used to seeing returns like that in 3 years....not 2 weeks. LOL!!!

It's all good FreeBaGel.

 
I am simply talking about 10-15% back down again.....and I think the chances of that are far greater than we just keep marching back to where we were before this all happened. Simply too much damage has been done....

...

My master list are my core holdings and I posted that list back when their was blood on the streets and was buying them with confidence. And still will......but at this point? I can wait for another retrace because again I am 100% certain the market will go down again in the short term. When? Does not really matter....next week...next month...but it will happen. When we least expect it. So be ready!!!
Just to be clear do you think we will go 10-15% down from where we are now or 10-15% down from wherever we are when we do start going down?

I've definitely done my fair share of shorting and cash holding during all of this and there have been plenty of times where I've thought "if I just wait two days to buy this there is the jobs report (or whatever bad news on the horizon) that will certainly make it cheaper" and then even if that drops the stock 2% when that happens it's already gone up another 15% before that since I first considered buying it so I would have been much better off just buying it originally.

I think a lot of us held off on buying like 7 days ago thinking things were going to go back down from there again, and then the same thing a few days after that.  But now at this point even if we go 10-15% down from here we will still be higher than we were last week if we'd just bought then.

Are you confident that we'll go 10-15% down from here or maybe 10-15% down from where we are a month from now which might be another 25% up from here and hence still higher than right now overall?

 
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Thanks for the replies FreeBaGel.

I think most folks are optimists based in some part on what Trump is saying, and the actions taken by the government to boost the economy.

But there's still no path forward for restoring the economy.  If things social distancing is loosened, spikes will happen.  Healthcare systems will be overrun.  Until we have a national strategy on how to handle this, we'll be unable as a country to successfully reopen until a vaccine comes on the scene that's shown to work.

So to me, in the absence of a national testing plan that's realistic/feasible, or the absence of a vaccine, the economy is going to get slammed.  

What will the reaction of the market be to Trump announcing things will reopen, only to be followed by major outbreaks of the disease and large numbers of deaths?  Because that seems the most likely outcome in the next few months.  Much more likely than any return to normal market conditions, despite folks hopes.  Around half of the country trusts Trump, thinks he's doing an OK job, and trusts what he says about the virus and the response.  These folks, I think, are major movers in the positive direction.  But in my opinion, reality is different than what Trump paints, and that's bad news for the market.

I'm not confident enough to go all in on my prediction, but I did sell quite a bit today expecting to be able to buy back at lower rates in the next weeks and/or months.

 
Thanks for the replies FreeBaGel.

I think most folks are optimists based in some part on what Trump is saying, and the actions taken by the government to boost the economy.

But there's still no path forward for restoring the economy.  If things social distancing is loosened, spikes will happen.  Healthcare systems will be overrun.  Until we have a national strategy on how to handle this, we'll be unable as a country to successfully reopen until a vaccine comes on the scene that's shown to work.

So to me, in the absence of a national testing plan that's realistic/feasible, or the absence of a vaccine, the economy is going to get slammed.  

What will the reaction of the market be to Trump announcing things will reopen, only to be followed by major outbreaks of the disease and large numbers of deaths?  Because that seems the most likely outcome in the next few months.  Much more likely than any return to normal market conditions, despite folks hopes.  Around half of the country trusts Trump, thinks he's doing an OK job, and trusts what he says about the virus and the response.  These folks, I think, are major movers in the positive direction.  But in my opinion, reality is different than what Trump paints, and that's bad news for the market.

I'm not confident enough to go all in on my prediction, but I did sell quite a bit today expecting to be able to buy back at lower rates in the next weeks and/or months.
Hint: Trump isn't controlling this.

 
What do you mean by "this"?

And you don't think that the words or direction of the president weighs on the stock markets expectations of when businesses will reopen?
You have posted a few times now about trump.

It isn't about Trump.

eta- if ever in our lives that a President's words didn't matter.  This is it.

 
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@adonis

I have yet to see any of the knowledgeable people here that we are learning from waiver based on Trump daily tweets from the toilet.

They are doing so based on their analysis and feel for the long term businesses, Presidents come and go.

eta - so lets let hem continue to leave it out.

 
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You have posted a few times now about trump.

It isn't about Trump.

eta- if ever in our lives that a President's words didn't matter.  This is it.
That's an odd stance to take.

Is he controlling all of this?  No.  But certainly his indications of when things will open back up drives things, as do the consequences of how he chooses to handle the pandemic at home.  Are there market implications for the federal government no longer helping fund testing sites?  Are there market implications when the president says he's appointing a new team to oversee reopening the economy?  Was there a jump when he said he wanted to see churches open for easter?

I dunno.- a lot of people believe Trump and trust him, and believe that he's well placed to determine which direction our economy will go.  And then know he's pushing hard to reopen things, and if that happens, they may think the market benefits.

So, again, congress is doing a ton.  Businesses are doing a ton.  But Trump's words matter too.

 
@adonis

I have yet to see any of the knowledgeable people here that we are learning from waiver based on Trump daily tweets from the toilet.

They are doing so based on their analysis and feel for the long term businesses, Presidents come and go.
In normal times, I'd completely agree.

In times of huge uncertainty, I think that what he's saying typically carries more weight than in other times.

I'd be curious to hear what others think though and i'll bow out here.  I'm here to listen mostly and ask questions.  And just for the record, this isn't being political, but truly trying to understand the market moves lately.

 
That's an odd stance to take.

Is he controlling all of this?  No.  But certainly his indications of when things will open back up drives things, as do the consequences of how he chooses to handle the pandemic at home.  Are there market implications for the federal government no longer helping fund testing sites?  Are there market implications when the president says he's appointing a new team to oversee reopening the economy?  Was there a jump when he said he wanted to see churches open for easter?

I dunno.- a lot of people believe Trump and trust him, and believe that he's well placed to determine which direction our economy will go.  And then know he's pushing hard to reopen things, and if that happens, they may think the market benefits.

So, again, congress is doing a ton.  Businesses are doing a ton.  But Trump's words matter too.
Like I said above, unless you are doing this professionally, lets let these other folks bring Trump into if they feel it is necessary?

eta - we are good.

 
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You guys using a lot of words to say “the Fed is pushing the market higher”.

The USA can NOT have a S&P that trades with a 1 handle with a 24T debt.

Its that simple.  

 
In normal times, I'd completely agree.

In times of huge uncertainty, I think that what he's saying typically carries more weight than in other times.

I'd be curious to hear what others think though and i'll bow out here.  I'm here to listen mostly and ask questions.  And just for the record, this isn't being political, but truly trying to understand the market moves lately.
If people tell you that the president has no bearing on the market by his comments, they are kidding themselves.  I agree that he isn't "driving" the market but his comments have an effect.  And it goes both ways.

I took a couple of losses in options trades last year that occurred after a tweet from him.  The China trade war of words.  He'd threaten more tariffs and they'd respond in kind.  Market gets spooked if only for a few days.  Unfortunately, it was always close to expiration day.  But his words can make a difference, especially if he ticks off China.  

 
I figure when they realize that we are not getting back to normal anytime soon, the market will adjust downward. 

Looks like SF wont have any home games until November. That should tell everyone that we will not be open for business soon. 

Baseball could probably continue. Stadiums are never full anyway. 6 foot rule would work there.

 
If the market is so forward thinking then why would it EVER go down?  The only thing that is 100% a sure thing is that the market always recovers and then goes up.  Always.  Every time.  It has never NOT done that.  Ever.  

 
If the market is so forward thinking then why would it EVER go down?  The only thing that is 100% a sure thing is that the market always recovers and then goes up.  Always.  Every time.  It has never NOT done that.  Ever.  


Partly because "the market" isn't really a thing. There's a collection of markets, some will rise more than others. Not everyone does "VTSAX and chill"

 
I figure when they realize that we are not getting back to normal anytime soon, the market will adjust downward. 

Looks like SF wont have any home games until November. That should tell everyone that we will not be open for business soon. 

Baseball could probably continue. Stadiums are never full anyway. 6 foot rule would work there.
Who doesn't realize that we aren't getting back to normal anytime soon?

Even the stocks that have explicitly said "we're not getting back to normal any time soon" have gone up.

 
I figure when they realize that we are not getting back to normal anytime soon, the market will adjust downward. 

Looks like SF wont have any home games until November. That should tell everyone that we will not be open for business soon. 

Baseball could probably continue. Stadiums are never full anyway. 6 foot rule would work there.
Where are you seeing/hearing this about SF? I’m in the bay and I haven’t heard that yet.

 
I figure when they realize that we are not getting back to normal anytime soon, the market will adjust downward. 

Looks like SF wont have any home games until November. That should tell everyone that we will not be open for business soon. 

Baseball could probably continue. Stadiums are never full anyway. 6 foot rule would work there.
Look at the area where Corona came from. Are things back to normal yet? Things will be normal in the USA 2 months after they become normal over there. We don't have enough have information or control of the animal yet. Death tolls mounting in NYC and the stock market goes up.This is way more complex than people realize.

 
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Look at the area where Corona came from. Are things back to normal yet? Things will be normal in the USA 2 months after they become normal over there. We don't have enough have information or control of the animal yet. Death tolls mounting in NYC and the stock market goes up.This is way more complex than people realize.
Fed keeps giving trillions and up up up we go

 
Delta Cut to Junk by Fitch as 35,000 Workers Take Leave

Delta Air Lines Inc. was cut to junk at Fitch Ratings as part of a general downgrade of the U.S. airline industry and its ability to service debt. The assessment adds urgency to the Trump administration’s desire to save the industry.

Fitch on Friday lowered its rating on Delta’s debt to “BB+” from “BBB-” and warned that another downgrade is possible as air travel suffers with the spread of the coronavirus. The airline does, however, have more financial flexibility than some rivals, Fitch said in an assessment of the industry.

 
Delta Cut to Junk by Fitch as 35,000 Workers Take Leave

Delta Air Lines Inc. was cut to junk at Fitch Ratings as part of a general downgrade of the U.S. airline industry and its ability to service debt. The assessment adds urgency to the Trump administration’s desire to save the industry.

Fitch on Friday lowered its rating on Delta’s debt to “BB+” from “BBB-” and warned that another downgrade is possible as air travel suffers with the spread of the coronavirus. The airline does, however, have more financial flexibility than some rivals, Fitch said in an assessment of the industry.
They can save the industry....without saving the common stock holders. This is why I am not touching airlines....and DAL is the only one I would even consider. And you have to be willing to lose every penny of what you put into any of those stocks. 

 
Just to be clear do you think we will go 10-15% down from where we are now or 10-15% down from wherever we are when we do start going down?

I've definitely done my fair share of shorting and cash holding during all of this and there have been plenty of times where I've thought "if I just wait two days to buy this there is the jobs report (or whatever bad news on the horizon) that will certainly make it cheaper" and then even if that drops the stock 2% when that happens it's already gone up another 15% before that since I first considered buying it so I would have been much better off just buying it originally.

I think a lot of us held off on buying like 7 days ago thinking things were going to go back down from there again, and then the same thing a few days after that.  But now at this point even if we go 10-15% down from here we will still be higher than we were last week if we'd just bought then.

Are you confident that we'll go 10-15% down from here or maybe 10-15% down from where we are a month from now which might be another 25% up from here and hence still higher than right now overall?
We can easily go down 15% from here. I am thinking Dow 20K which I have stated. I do not think we will see those 3/23 lows.....unless there is a king cobra in the grass regarding the virus. The FED is throwing the kitchen sink at this thing. 

So if we pull back say 15% 20K will present still.....outstanding value. Again based on 2020 earnings.....the market right now....as of yesterday is more than fair value. Based on 2021.....well that is the million dollar question. 

We all simply do not know how long it will take to not only get our economy going again....but how long will it take to rebuild the job loss, get confidence back into travel and leisure and directional spending. 

I think it will take 12-18 months before we are doing well again. We are entering a recession we all know that. The market will not go in a straight line from here......this has been a typical bear market rally. Again.....you are seeing stocks going up and it does not make sense to you....and that is called massive short covering and the people who may have gotten out at the bottom...and again buying higher on a head fake rally.

I hope and want to be wrong on this.....I am 85-90% invested.......I would love nothing more than a quick recovery. But I know better. We will retract at least 10%....but can easily go 15% from right here....and maybe 20% total if things get hairy again. The outright depression/apocalypse selling.....probably and most likely done. 

The Fed is stabilizing the debt and treasury markets as well as back stopping all these SBA loans.....I mean this is incredible what they are doing. And that is giving the market some re-assurance. But 3-5 years from now.....the roosters will come home to roost on all these trillions of dollars being thrown at this thing.

Monday will be very interesting. I will be surprised if we march even higher from this point. If we do.....great. Go higher. Please!!!!

 
POTENTIAL NEW COVID-19 TREATMENT LERONLIMAB BEING TESTED ON CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS

https://www.newsweek.com/potential-new-covid-19-treatment-leronlimab-first-coronavirus-patients-1497226

BY ARISTOS GEORGIOU ON 4/10/20 AT 6:00 AM EDT

Researchers are exploring a potential new treatment for COVID-19 known as leronlimab and have administered the drug for the first time to coronavirus patients in the past few days. Leronlimab is also being investigated for its usefulness against triple-negative breast cancer.

The first two coronavirus patients have been treated with the drug in a Phase II clinical trial, which has been specifically designed to asses the impact of leronlimab on patients with mild-to-moderate forms of the disease, the developer, biotechnology firm CytoDyn, said in a press release earlier this week.

The Phase II trial, which was given the go-ahead by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on March 31, will be used to determine what biological effects the drug has and how safe it is. But before a drug can be approved for use by regulatory bodies, it must pass further trials, which usually involve a higher number of participants and assess the effectiveness of the intervention more rigorously.

According to CytoDyn, the trial, which will be randomized, double-blinded and placebo-controlled, aims to enrol 75 patients. Randomization, the use of placebos and blinding—where one or more parties are kept unaware of which treatments patients received—are all used by researchers to prevent conscious or unconscious bias from affecting the results of the trial.

The company says that leronlimab has been administered recently to 15 severely ill COVID-19 patients—10 at a leading medical centre in New York and five at three other hospitals—all under an EIND, of emergency investigational new drug application, which was granted individually by the FDA.

CytoDyn also said that it is commencing another COVID-19 trial, which will treat more than 340 severely ill patients with leronlimab for two weeks.

"We are encouraged by the positive results demonstrated with leronlimab in the New York patients," Bruce Patterson, M.D., Chief Executive Officer and founder of IncellDx, a diagnostic partner and advisor to CytoDyn, said in the press release.

"Our team is working hard to distribute leronlimab to multiple clinical sites to initiate therapy in patients with severe COVID-19 disease. While every patient is experiencing different comorbidities, we are seeing similar clinical responses, which we believe is a reflection of leronlimab's mechanism of action," he said.

Researchers think that the drug may work by calming the aggressive immune response called the "cytokine storm" that occurs in severely ill COVID-19 patients, but further research is needed to determine how effective leronlimab is.

The FDA has already granted leronlimab "Fast Track" designation to explore its efficacy as a treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer as well as HIV. In fact, nine clinical trials have been completed to date in which the drug has been administered to more than 800 people, including one Phase III trial involving HIV patients where leronlimab was combined with standard therapies.

These early trials indicate that potential side effects of the drug may include diarrhea, headache, swollen lymph nodes, high blood pressure, and injection site reactions.

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, scientists around the world are scrambling to test the effectiveness of various potential treatments, as well as develop a vaccine. But while efforts are being made to accelerate this process, with some drugs being tried outside of formal studies, randomized controlled trials are still required to truly asses whether or not a given treatment works and if it is safe.

 
It's good to hear from an actual patient instead of paid interviews. 

Wish the national media would pick it up.  

 
Article doesn’t mention the company though. Might not be a big deal but not sure I would expect it to pop Monday. Hope so though! 

 

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