Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

[identikit]

Article doesn’t mention the company though. Might not be a big deal but not sure I would expect it to pop Monday. Hope so though! 

Yes.

Disappointing.

 

[Judge Smails]

Article doesn’t mention the company though. Might not be a big deal but not sure I would expect it to pop Monday. Hope so though! 

The piece on CBS had it on upper left. At least stock symbol

 

[Judge Smails]

It's good to hear from an actual patient instead of paid interviews. 

Wish the national media would pick it up.  

The CEO is terrible in front of a camera. They need a real communicator then get rid of these paid puff pieces. My 2 cents. 

 

[matuski]

Article doesn’t mention the company though. Might not be a big deal but not sure I would expect it to pop Monday. Hope so though! 

I think I prefer it that way.. focus on the drug and anecdotal evidence.

 

[cubd8]

If the market is so forward thinking then why would it EVER go down?  The only thing that is 100% a sure thing is that the market always recovers and then goes up.  Always.  Every time.  It has never NOT done that.  Ever.  

The market definitely reacts negatively to uncertainty. It's been better in the past week, probably because of some of the news about the curves in cities beginning to peak and the money put into stabilize the economy. It will be interesting to see if the federal governments' recommendations to open the government will cause any doubt about the recovery if they get too far ahead. I don't doubt that many governors are not going to want to move as fast as Trump, but I do believe this will quickly become a bi-partisan issue by June as job losses continue to mount. Obviously, the medical data matters though.

 

[cubd8]

Who doesn't realize that we aren't getting back to normal anytime soon?

Even the stocks that have explicitly said "we're not getting back to normal any time soon" have gone up.

I don't think we're be operating a full economy until a vaccine is back. Entertainment, travel, restaurants, large group gatherings may be 'open', but aren't going to be widely used until then. I am actually more optimistic about the fall, when a 2nd wave of the virus is expected/could come back than I am about June/July as the economy re-opens. I say this because until we have a theraputic, we can only bounce back so much. If we have a medical answer to make a hospital visit an extreme scenario by the fall, then things could get back to somewhat normal, even though the vaccine is fully needed.

Short-term, I think the everything will need to attempt to re-open, as the medical data shows the decline. These unemployment numbers rising is going to make this a bi-partisan issue. Trump's comments do carry a lot of weight in the states, even though he can't force anyone to open up, but if he does it too quickly, it could have a negative outcome if cases begin to spike, etc. If we do this so quickly (and maybe they pick a few remote areas to "open" to show this could work without proper testing in place, this could set back everything - the public needs to feel safe to be around other people and without a medical treatment and testing in place, this rollout is going to be difficult which leads me to believe a large part of this will be common sense - if you can work from home, continue doing that; if you are older, stay home; if you have an underlying issue, stay at home. 

We need anti-body testing as well, which is not available in any large scale. 

So, as much as I want to re-open everything, and do expect attempts to do so sooner, in some areas, I think it's likely to be slow and incrementail and based on medical data.

 

[cubd8]

I'm looking at adding Appian and AT&T this week. 

Why AT&T?I own just a handful of stocks (25) and bought most of them around $38 or so. They don't seem to have much upside, but are a good dividend stock. How much you looking at?

Same question for Appian.

 

[cubd8]

They can save the industry....without saving the common stock holders. This is why I am not touching airlines....and DAL is the only one I would even consider. And you have to be willing to lose every penny of what you put into any of those stocks. 

I did buy some United, but it's a stock that I realize nobody is going to be flying for a year. I'm thinking longer-term with them, at least a year out before people are comfortable with flying again.

 

[sporthenry]

Airlines mad at the bailout talks. Unbelievable that they can be upset with the money they are getting. What would the market offer them and they're upset the Government is forcing them to repay some of it? 70%grant(FREE $), 30%Low interest, 3%warrants

So with $25bn, that is up to $750 million in warrants but likely less since warrants won't be asked of smaller corporations and $7.5bn of debt. $750mn of warrants while DAL has market cap of $15.6bn, UAL $7.8bn, AAL $5.3bn, LUV $18.9bn

$750mn of warrants seems like the least they can do. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-briefing-u-airlines-32-183645634.html

 

[sporthenry]

So just a dead end then?

Todem likes AT&T so he can probably give you the bull case. Personally, I prefer VZ to T. You're giving up some yield in the dividend but I think it's worth it. At this point, VZ is more of a pure play telecom company while AT&T is all over the place. Still predominantly a telco player but have a dying satellite TV business and I'm still not sure I understand the synergies between them and Time Warner. They're an over-levered compared to VZ which will impact their investment capacity going forward. Haven't modeled out T lately but their dividend payout ratio is over 100% which is unsustainable compared to VZ at 50%. At this point, I like the pureplay telecom company and VZ will be able to invest more for 5G than T will. 

I also suppose it depends what you're investing for and what not. You do get a higher dividend yield and perhaps that persists but wouldn't be surprise to see them have to cut it. That would likely hit the stock but if you're not worried about income, then the dividend cut is less of a concern. But beyond that, I think the wireless/cable guys would withstand a recession and economic weakness better than most since it is a subscription that people can't really get rid of but while they would likely outperform other stuff in a recession,  outperformance is relative and you're still likely looking at a sideways stock at best. 

 

[Todem]

Great info, thx for sharing. Have Verizon on my watch list as well. A little more expensive to get into, less in dividends but I prefer VZ myself. And yes, I do think Todem recommended AT&T as well. He also recommended VZ too though. 

I like VZ because it has more growth potential than T....but T’s dividend is outstanding and I think they will shed underperforming assets over time. T is cheap. When it goes into the mid to low 20’s I have been a big buyer. The compounded yield over 10-15 years....hard to argue with that. And T does have low volatility (lower beta) compared with the S&P 500 in general (nothing performed here well in this recent downtown).

VZ is also excellent.

If someone said pick one.....I take VZ for much lower debt reasons. But I have no issues owning both long term. 

 

[beef]

Picked up a little SPXS towards the end of the day Thursday.  Wishing I would have grabbed a little TZA.  

 

[-OZ-]

I don't want to pull out, but I pretty much think this guy is on track: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/90CED256-7CF5-11EA-B298-E6606EABF547

 

[[icon]]

25% in / 75% cash after Thursday/Friday 

Let's see if the Fed throws another Trillion or two this week 

 

 

[BassNBrew]

Buffet sure boned it on the airlines.  AAL is going to open at about 50% above where it was a week ago.

 

[BassNBrew]

Oh it's going down, Warren Buffett said so!

See above.

 

[sporthenry]

25% in / 75% cash after Thursday/Friday 

Let's see if the Fed throws another Trillion or two this week 

 

Well to be fair, the Fed only used ~43% of the $454 billion Congress gave them. Gotta love leverage. So they have another up to $3T they can throw on the market assuming they lever the facilities up to 10x as they have been doing. 

 

[The Ref]

Buffet sure boned it on the airlines.  AAL is going to open at about 50% above where it was a week ago.

If he sold 330M off and that is it it’s real bad timing.

if he sold 330M off to get under 10% owned in Delta and AAL so Berkshire can buy outright one of the major airlines without the reporting headaches and cost of he may be the genius he’s proved to be over the years.

whom-knows for sure but brk still owns 9%

 

[Harris]

25% in / 75% cash after Thursday/Friday 

Let's see if the Fed throws another Trillion or two this week 

 

Every week is alternating between fed announcement and Congress working on stimulus number infinity+1

I sold out last week (except CYDY) hoping for one last drop. I decided to set some target prices on target companies and go back in 1/3 at a time because as others have said, there's no point in trying to time the market, let alone something without any history to chart off of. 

 

[[icon]]

Futures were down a good bit but are now approaching even. Probably will see another shot of Monopoly money at open to get things off on the right foot. 

 

[Harris]

Saw this and thought it was appropriate.

Federal Reserve vs. COVID-19 (3 min)

 

[Lacey]

So.....how about this little diddy for when we feel the tide is finally turning?

EXIV

Velocity shares 1X daily INV on the VIX

52 week high was 51.40

It closed at 5.75 today.

Inverse ETF on the VIX

I am going to wait a little bit.......then make a small wager on this. Because the VIX is at all time highs.....and it could be here for a little while longer......but soon that levee is gonna break.

Todem, how do you feel on this one?  Still holding off for now?  
 

On a related note, I had picked up a few shares of EXIV.  I then received a “bond/cd redemption alert - full call” on it a week or so later.  So did that basically force the sale at that price?  Is this ticker now “closed”?  

 

[Todem]

Todem, how do you feel on this one?  Still holding off for now?  
 

On a related note, I had picked up a few shares of EXIV.  I then received a “bond/cd redemption alert - full call” on it a week or so later.  So did that basically force the sale at that price?  Is this ticker now “closed”?  

I typically stay far away from inverse ETN’s and ETF’s. 99% of the time they are losers. Pure timing and you have to be in and out to have any chance at success. 

I am doing what I do best. Picking stocks....staying long. And making some quick trades inside of this bear market on oversold high stress stocks (BLMN, MGM for example). 

 

[Lacey]

I typically stay far away from inverse ETN’s and ETF’s. 99% of the time they are losers. Pure timing and you have to be in and out to have any chance at success. 

I am doing what I do best. Picking stocks....staying long. And making some quick trades inside of this bear market on oversold high stress stocks (BLMN, MGM for example). 

Seems like a solid strategy.  I’d be curious to better understand what exactly that full call did, though?  

 

[The Ref]

Seems like a market for carnival barkers for biotech companies.  Woman on CNBC for another company is reading off a script.  When they stopped her to talk she just throws out empty platitude after platitude.  

 

[Random]

Any buyers today, or is it just the beginning?

 

[beef]

Any buyers today, or is it just the beginning?

I picked up some DIS as it dipped below 100.

Decided to convert some of my short term play fund profits and go long.       

 

[lod001]

Any buyers today, or is it just the beginning?

Who knows. This is how people get separated from their $. Imagine trying to buy TZA or TNA right now. Have any idea which one to choose?

Mancini 2 hrs ago - We're up 30% off the lows in $SPX - we will get a pullback soon (i'd like a little higher first), and when we do it will come on many top calls. It may be, but stay objective. Price could easily form a bull flag to 2630 or the 50% fib at 2490 before popping again to new highs.

I'd like to see us chop sideways then push to the levels shown in my chart (2850 then 2930 above), but quite abit of resistance in this zone we need to push through here first (break up from the purple wedge in my chart)

By chop I meant, chop around current levels. I;d like to see another pop higher before the deeper pullback mentioned in my post but we'll see if we can take out the resistance we've been hovering around since Friday

 

[Todem]

Seems like a solid strategy.  I’d be curious to better understand what exactly that full call did, though?  

Seems like it has ceased to exist (without even looking it up) and they called it in and gave back whatever the value was at he moment. 

The symbol is not even working anymore.

Like I said....I hate these things. Steer clear. 

And we have the start of some semblance of a slow pull back. We have bounced almost 30% from the lows of March 23rd. That shows you how oversold it was. 

These are days to pick and choose companies you really like. For example. CAT is down 9% this is a company I really like long term and feel it was battered down hard (was a buyer at 101, 102ish back at the lows). This is a good nibble day on CAT.

I am getting to that point of 85-90% confidence the lows have been put in. The Fed is backstopping this market until we start seeing everyone getting back to work. 

This is going to take a while to get through. I think the easy money has been made. If your a long term investor.....be selective, have your master list of stocks to deploy any available cash you may have (ear marked for the long term) and take advantage of down days for those stocks.....don’t be so focused on the index’s.

For those who went to cash in their 401K’s (ugh....) and never went back in...you going to have a tough road. You will need to simply portion it back (dollar cost average) over time here as I think these 1000-2000 point drop days are getting farther and farther behind us if this curve continues to flatten and the news get’s better and better as we move into the summer. Economic news was being priced in back between March 16th-23rd. That was the historic whoosh. I doubt we see it again. However I cannot say that with 100% certainty. 

Crazy times. 

Stay safe everyone and I will still check in here. Also watching The Bloom and it is dropping again lol. That was a fun trade! We will have a few more to make I am sure.

 

[Todem]

And low and behold DOW down 500 points.

Buckle up.....we have a while to go with this bear market (thru the election IMO) where we will get 2-5% moves up and down.....staircase down for 10% drop...maybe more...then an elevator back up to the high end of the range.

This is why market timing is for suckers. "Time in the market" is the golden rule.

Have a great portfolio and let it work for you long term. I am glad I have only a little cash left.....glad I used my highly experienced and steel gut as usual to be a buyer back during that historic drop. Did I catch the bottom on every position on my master list? God no. But we got in at a great discount. 

STAY LONG!!!!!

Good luck everyone.

 

[Wooderson]

Gonna use my tungsten gut  to get in on more CYDY. 

 

[-OZ-]

Contemplating - Disney at $100, more JETS ($14?) or sit on some cash? DFS might be a good bye today too.

 

[Capella]

Any buyers today, or is it just the beginning?

Disney, another 20

 

[Capella]

I sold bloomin at 9.50. Kept saying I would hold but you gotta be an ###hole not to take 50% return. I’ll buy more at 7

-10% today. Maybe I’ll buy more at 6 lol

 

[stbugs]

My stocks are all over the freaking place. The ones that had held up well but not shot up in the rally are all up nice today. AMZN carrying me, damn I love that stock. Wife works there and just got her bonus, basket of shares already up nicely in a week. That’s our retire at the beach and make me a kept husband fund.

 

[humpback]

Contemplating - Disney at $100, more JETS ($14?) or sit on some cash? DFS might be a good bye today too.

 

[humpback]

I know we aren't supposed to "fight the Fed", but how much can they really do if people aren't leaving their homes?

The women's Rogers Cup tennis tournament was just cancelled in Canada, was supposed to be in mid-August. Quebec announced no sporting events can be held through August 31st (though it left the door slightly open for pro teams).

This is going to drag on for a lot longer than is currently being priced in IMO.

 

[Capella]

Amazon, hello 

 

[Jayrok]

Bob Iger back running DIS.  

 

[Warrior]

I know we aren't supposed to "fight the Fed", but how much can they really do if people aren't leaving their homes?

The women's Rogers Cup tennis tournament was just cancelled in Canada, was supposed to be in mid-August. Quebec announced no sporting events can be held through August 31st (though it left the door slightly open for pro teams).

This is going to drag on for a lot longer than is currently being priced in IMO.

Very likely longer than YOU are currently pricing in. So many people incorrectly assume that their opinion is the opinion of the market and it's rarely true.

 

[matuski]

After seeing my own company's internal Q2 forecast and hearing four buddies talk about theirs... medical device companies are forecasting to miss Q2 budget by 40% or more.

All four of our companies got out of Q1 being off by only 5-7%.... Q2 is going to suck.

Someone smarter than me can tell me how to take advantage of this information, but it would seem this might not be the place to put your money right now.

 

[BassNBrew]

Added some Bloomin CAT and Tyson Foods this morning. 

 

[[icon]]

Bob Iger back running DIS.  

Grabbed a slice of DIS at 101.5

 

[caustic]

Grabbed a slice of DIS at 101.5

Same here.   Holding onto this one for a while.

 

[Don Hutson]

Experimental coronavirus treatment leronlimab shows 'very promising' response in some COVID-19 patients

https://www.foxnews.com/science/experimental-coronavirus-treatment-leronlimab-very-promising-response-in-some-covid-19-patients

The experimental coronavirus treatment leronlimab has shown a “very promising” response in COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms, according to developer CytoDyn.

Leronlimab is a viral-entry inhibitor that targets HIV and breast cancer. The drug has also been attracting attention as a potential coronavirus treatment. In a statement released Monday CytoDyn gave an update on over 30 patients COVID-19 patients recently treated with leronlimab in more than 4 hospitals and clinics across the U.S.  Patients have received leronlimab as part of Emergency Investigational New Drug (EINDs) treatments authorized by the FDA and two CytoDyn clinical trials.

“More than 25 patients have been administered leronlimab under EINDs authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA),” the biotech explained. “Rate of response in mild-to-moderate patients under EIND has been very promising with the first five patients treated being removed from oxygen.”

Leronlimab is one of a number of drugs in the spotlight as the world scrambles to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Experts, however, have warned that people should not take drugs unless prescribed by a doctor.

CytoDyn CEO Nader Pourhassan said that the company is working to ramp up its research into leronlimab as a potential coronavirus treatment. “We continue to coordinate around the clock with healthcare professionals across the country to deliver leronlimab to patients and we are in regular contact with the FDA to ensure they receive current patient data,” he said, in the statement. “We are planning to rapidly enroll 75 patients and report the results to the FDA as quickly as possible.”

The Vancouver, Washington-based company said that, as of last week, 12 patients have been treated in a Phase 2 trial for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 indications. However, results are not yet available.  The first site cleared to enroll patients in a Phase 2b/3 trial starts Monday, according to the biotech.

More than 25 hospitals have requested to participate in the company’s trials.

The FDA had already granted CytoDyn a “fast-track” designation for two potential uses of leronlimab – as a combination therapy with other medications for HIV patients and for patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer. Leronlimab blocks CCR5 (C-C motif chemokine receptor 5), a cellular receptor important in HIV infection, tumor metastases, and other diseases, according to CytoDyn. “Leronlimab has completed nine clinical trials in over 800 people, including meeting its primary endpoints in a pivotal Phase 3 trial (leronlimab in combination with standard antiretroviral therapies in HIV-infected treatment-experienced patients),” explained CytoDyn, in the statement.

Separately, the experimental COVID-19 treatment remdesivir is showing early promise in the battle against the coronavirus outbreak, according to a small research study.

The study, which was recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine, was supported by remdesivir developer Gilead Sciences.

As of Monday morning, at least 1.86 million coronavirus cases have been diagnosed worldwide, at least 557,663 of which are in the U.S. The disease has accounted for at least 115,286 deaths around the world, including more than 22,000 people in the U.S.

 

[humpback]

Very likely longer than YOU are currently pricing in. So many people incorrectly assume that their opinion is the opinion of the market and it's rarely true.

Seems like you're projecting here- I've said it before and I'll say it again that I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to know that no one knows what is going to happen, especially when dealing with things we have never dealt with before. 

 

[Acrobat7]

I mentioned them in this thread a couple of weeks ago. Them and FNV and NEM. 

Has been a really good group of gold investments for me lately. 

Still long in GOLD, FNV and NEM. Check the 1 year charts on those suckers (or any time range). 

 

[Challenge Everything]

I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.

 

[Todem]

Seems like you're projecting here- I've said it before and I'll say it again that I've been doing this long enough and am humble enough to know that no one knows what is going to happen, especially when dealing with things we have never dealt with before. 

Agree.....and also the essence of speculation....because this is what investing comes down to, is where everyone forms their opinions. I have no idea what is going to happen. I don’t even think the doctors know. 

But....we are all placing our bets at the casino (market) and placing our futures here. I am surprised at valuations right now. As much as the next person. I do think the markets have really moved higher too fast. I am being very cautious here with the little cash I have left for myself and my clients. Just picking spots and making long term bets....like really long term bets (3, 5,10 years out). 

I think anyone trying to time and short term trade is playing with fire. This is an incredible time we are going through. Nothing like anything we have seen in our lifetime. The economy is shut down......it is truly amazing (and was needed to get this thing under control or attempt too). 

Again I know you are highly experienced like myself. If you can see the forrest through the trees and think out 3,4,5 years from now....you will be rewarded (as you well know). There is going to be some big earnings destruction here and the market seems to have overshot it here short term. I think that is why we all feel strongly about another leg back down. How deep that goes? No one really knows. 

So understand what your goals are, understand your risk tolerance and invest according to that. Take advantage of the volatility. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

I know things have stabilized a little bit lately in the bond market thanks to the Fed but spreads are still pretty wide compared to normal.  Anyone putting some cash to work in high yield, floating rate, or investment grade bonds?  

I added EIFHX Eaton Vance Floating Rate on March 24th and it is up over 10% since then.  Considering adding to high yield or perhaps even muni high yield.