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First time with a partial fill on Fidelity.

Ordered 100 shares of JETS, so far I've had two partial fills of 4 and 13 shares. 

I guess that means I put in at the lowest price possible to get any shares? (For now anyway). 

 
Don't Noonan said:
I know things have stabilized a little bit lately in the bond market thanks to the Fed but spreads are still pretty wide compared to normal.  Anyone putting some cash to work in high yield, floating rate, or investment grade bonds?  

I added EIFHX Eaton Vance Floating Rate on March 24th and it is up over 10% since then.  Considering adding to high yield or perhaps even muni high yield.
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I'd be very careful. You are fighting with the Fed but think a lot of those ETFs are going to be technical driven in the near term. HYG closed at a 4.6% premium to NAV on Thursday, LQD was 3.2%. So you're paying 4.6% above the market value of the underlying assets just to get in. NAVs do exist in the corporate bond world in normal times due to the illiquidity in corporate bond world but I believe that is a record NAV premium likely due to the Fed possibly buying it. 

IG may be a bit interesting although still likely have downgrade cycles to withstand. Floating rate stuff is most likely a lot of, if not exclusively, junk debt. Probably best if you think near-term rates will eventually go up. 

One ETF to keep an eye on may be ANGL. It is a fallen angel ETF, can take advantage of the dislocation caused by downgrades, usually still buying solid companies like F and most of those companies will likely be eligible for Fed purchase. 

 
Well none of us really know where the market is going or what the market is thinking. I think the one thing most of us can agree with is that we're past the point of futures hitting limit up/down every night and multiple days with circuit breakers. Doesn't mean we won't still have an occasional one but that was truly unprecedented days. However, just as we're getting past that volatility, we are hitting earnings season so that will likely keep vol elevated, relatively speaking. 

My personal view is that we'll be like most bear markets. We'll grind lower with the occasional rally but won't truly turn until the economy starts to reopen and we figure out how that reopen occurs. I suspect we'll reopen sooner than later but will be very cautious and include social distancing (i.e. half capacity at places or maybe no fans at sporting events). Easy money on both sides is gone, sure. Whether we retest lows is how long this lasts and what a reopening looks like. I suspect as a hard reopen becomes less likely, things will go lower. 

 
BassNBrew said:
HTZ - Hertz is looking tasty to me.
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I just wonder if rental cars are losing out a bit in the future. While they certainly won't go away completely, ride sharing and various other platforms have come on strong. I don't know the companies involved but the idea that you can join a Nationwide network of vehicles, pay a monthly fee and use whatever vehicle (I'd imagine there are limits) has appeal. I think it was ChooseFI or another similar podcast I was hearing about the platform. 

 
-OZ- said:
I just wonder if rental cars are losing out a bit in the future. While they certainly won't go away completely, ride sharing and various other platforms have come on strong. I don't know the companies involved but the idea that you can join a Nationwide network of vehicles, pay a monthly fee and use whatever vehicle (I'd imagine there are limits) has appeal. I think it was ChooseFI or another similar podcast I was hearing about the platform. 
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Spent most of last year between 12-17.  Down 7.5% today to 5.80.  Fits the profile of the stocks we've been killing it on.  Much like Kohl's two weeks ago that is not of long term interest to me, I'm looking for a $2 pop and a quick 40% gain.

Pretty much any stock that's had a down day that's trading at 25-40% of it's 2019 value has been good for a 50% return in a 10 day time frame.

 
BassNBrew said:
Spent most of last year between 12-17.  Down 7.5% today to 5.80.  Fits the profile of the stocks we've been killing it on.  Much like Kohl's two weeks ago that is not of long term interest to me, I'm looking for a $2 pop and a quick 40% gain.

Pretty much any stock that's had a down day that's trading at 25-40% of it's 2019 value has been good for a 50% return in a 10 day time frame.
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what does their balance sheet look like?  Any risk of BK?

 
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Just dove into some SYF.  Down 8% today.  Trading at 16.20, was between 30-35 most of last year.

 
BassNBrew said:
I'm not the one to ask.  Maybe you can educate me.  https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=HTZ&qsearchterm=&tab=financials

Very much appreciate the feedback guys.  Helps me determine if a stock is an in and out or if I hold a few shares longer term.

eta: I think most every stock I've touch in the last month is at risk for BK.
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I use this thread purely for gambling purposes.  95% of my retirement investments (non RE) are in index funds.  I'm sure I own plenty of CAT and AMZN there.

Really enjoy the MGM and BLMN trades, this one might work as well.  

 
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Challenge Everything said:
I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.
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You will still have opportunity to get DIS cheaper IMO.  I'm watching it too but not feeling a rush to buy, especially when it's over $100

 
TripItUp said:
what does their balance sheet look like?  Any risk of BK?
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Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking rental cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. But not in a rush to buy any of these.

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 

 
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sporthenry said:
Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking used cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. 

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 
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I figured it was something like this...any time a stock price gets that low in a bad economy my first thought is BK risk.

 
sporthenry said:
Their b/s is a mess just in general. Fortunately, I never had to model it out but most of it is vehicle debt (ie debt securitized by the cars they own). So not only do they move on actual results but they move on the value of their used cars. I have been thinking rental cars may be a decent long-term play if people stop flying and can't afford vacations beyond a rental car. But not in a rush to buy any of these.

That said, HTZ unsecured bonds are trading at $50 which is distressed level, implying bankruptcy. Before all this, they were trading at or above par. So the bondholders are at least implying a BK/RX event. 
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Thank you.  I'll exit this quickly tomorrow.

 
Todem said:
Agree.....and also the essence of speculation....because this is what investing comes down to, is where everyone forms their opinions. I have no idea what is going to happen. I don’t even think the doctors know. 

But....we are all placing our bets at the casino (market) and placing our futures here. I am surprised at valuations right now. As much as the next person. I do think the markets have really moved higher too fast. I am being very cautious here with the little cash I have left for myself and my clients. Just picking spots and making long term bets....like really long term bets (3, 5,10 years out). 

I think anyone trying to time and short term trade is playing with fire. This is an incredible time we are going through. Nothing like anything we have seen in our lifetime. The economy is shut down......it is truly amazing (and was needed to get this thing under control or attempt too). 

Again I know you are highly experienced like myself. If you can see the forrest through the trees and think out 3,4,5 years from now....you will be rewarded (as you well know). There is going to be some big earnings destruction here and the market seems to have overshot it here short term. I think that is why we all feel strongly about another leg back down. How deep that goes? No one really knows. 

So understand what your goals are, understand your risk tolerance and invest according to that. Take advantage of the volatility. 
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Yep, there's always uncertainty with investing, although I'd argue that right now there is more than ever. Between the virus, monetary policy, debt, oil, politics, etc., so many unprecedented things to try and factor in all at the same time. I know we will eventually defeat the virus, but the economic fallout may be longer lasting.

I worry a little that we have recency bias when thinking it's a lock that we'll be rewarded a few years from now. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the 2020's end up more like the 2000's than the 2010's. The run up since the great recession has been remarkable, I think we've been conditioned to just "buy the dip" because things will bounce right back. I hope and think it will again this time, but I can't shake the thought of all of the excess debt and QE that I assume will have to be unwound at some point.

Truly crazy times.

 
TripItUp said:
I figured it was something like this...any time a stock price gets that low in a bad economy my first thought is BK risk.
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Yeah, I mean the BK risk in most of these names are elevated. I just use bond prices as another sanity check in all of this. The interplay between the bond and equity markets are interesting. I don't believe one is necessarily smarter than the other. When they diverge, I've seen the bond market proved right and the equity market proved right. I don't have bloomberg anymore but it'd be an interesting screen to see whose equity has sold off 50% but bonds aren't implying BK or vice versa. 

For example, WYNN is down 60% since Feb, 80% off YTD highs but just ripped off a bond deal at 7.75%. Bond investors look at things differently since their risk is asymmetric to the downside. As a result, they look at things differently than equity guys and may focus on things like recovery value and the like. But at the end of the day, a corporate bond is like selling a put on the company so they should be correlated. 

 
The Lost One said:
So this was at 95 in February?!  And is now at 7?!  What the hell happened?  If it gets anywhere close to where it was, buying into this would be huge for everyone, no?

Why isn't everyone buying this?  This would be like CYDY on major steroids. 
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Only way it gets back to 95 is from a reverse split, IMO.  These 3x ETFs don't play by the same rules or follow the same line of thinking as common stock 52 week ranges.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Thank you.  I'll exit this quickly tomorrow.
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Your welcome although I don't follow HTZ enough to be that smart. I know the equity has been dead money for a few years so could be upside from that. I also don't know what their liabilities look like in terms of timing. Because they have so much leverage, the equity is likely to be higher beta on these things so if things recover, could easily double or triple. But when bonds are trading at $50, if you assume a below market recovery of $20 and upside of $100, I'd probably rather invest in the bonds with that risk profile (although could be some easter eggs in the debt). Just with all those moving parts, that is why I never spent a ton of time on the name. 

 
Nibbled a bit of DAL today.  Between the Buffet selloff(potential purchase) and the looming bailout, I'm looking for an upswing soon...

 
caustic said:
I’m guessing this one: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245720677660925952?s=20

Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!
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well, Trump was wrong.  They agreed to 10 million barrels (sort of) and oil prices are flat.  Not exactly “GREAT”.  They are out of room to cut and running out of storage.  I am still short oil.   

 
Gambling on a market rise rest of week.  Bought some DAL, MGM and BLMN in equal parts.

be a quick hold other than if this proves to be my long term MGM starter kit.

 
Challenge Everything said:
I unfortunately did not take advantage of the run up from the 18k mark the Dow saw a few weeks ago but now I am at 33% cash. I've been following and looking at Disney (DIS) but they aren't opening parks up until May 31st at the earliest. I know earnings are coming out the next couple of weeks so I may buy back in after those come out.
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Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.
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In France here they have just extended our lockdown to at least May 11 and no events or large gatherings until mid-July at earliest. Disneyland Paris to be closed for quite a while.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.
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Theme parks? Ha ha ha, dude personaly speaking......I am not heading back to one of those till I know a vaccine is here. The travel and leisure industry is in for a tough year. Very tough. Disney is diversified and has other avenues of revenue and people will go back as early as this year (I simply do not need to take that risk as I have been to all the Orlando theme parks dozens of times in my life already being a Florida resident....and man was it cheap for a long time till this past decade LMAO). 

Strong restaurants will be back hard once stay at home restrictions start rolling off for certain states/cities etc. People are going to flock to eat out.....but there will be long waits and lesser tables initially as we still have social distancing in effect.....again till we have viable treatments and a vaccine by hopefully year end start of 2021. This is going to take a while. No doubt about it. And the market will start realizing this here very soon......very soon. It has over shot short term on the upside. And it of course over reacted hard to the downside. Crazy times.

 
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McBokonon said:
Down 20% today. They're not gonna make it.
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Yes, AMC is likely filing/restructuring unless the Saudi fund or someone saves them. Did see some people push DIS to bail them out but think it'd be too much anti-trust issues. But they are a victim of over-levering. Tried to buy up too much crap at low rates to grow the business. Just a cautionary tale of just because AMC is bigger, doesn't mean they'll be the winner in all of this. 

If they drag CNK or NCMI down enough, it could get interesting. While AMCs won't go away because of a filing, long-term viability really rest in DIS' hands. Iger coming back aboard may help them but if they go direct to consumer or cut the window, could be screwed. But DIS has seen the value of the theatrical window so who knows. 

 
I had gotten to about 40% cash again.  Moved 15% into the market today in blmn, tdoc, dgx, car, dfs, syf, htz, wh, adma, alt, vbiv, dis, tsn, cat.  Sold off about 10% in the form of TZA and AMZN.  The bolded are long term holdings, the others i will exit with any significant pop.

 
Don Hutson said:
CytoDyn just brought on Scott Kelly not the astronaut to be Chief Medical Officer and Head of Business Development.  Maybe he'll be taking over some of Nader's responsibilities.  Nader is clearly in over his head in a lot of areas especially on the business side.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cytodyn-appoints-scott-kelly-m-100010231.html
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Nice, given he is currently chairman of the board he's pretty close to the product, I'm guessing he's not leaving his other salaried roles unless he feels good about the upside here.

 
There are Covid-affected stocks that are good short term investments and good long term investments but not good in the middle.  Delta could jump 20%-30% in a matter of days if the market decides that the airline industry is ready for a rebound.  But the airline's Covid woes are not done.  Flights will be extremely low until there is a vaccine.  Next winter could have a shutdown of flights similar to the shutdown we are currently experiencing.  And next winter's shutdown(s) could last longer. 

But post-vaccine, demand is going to explode for airline travel and Delta will lead against a thinned-out competition.  Airlines do very well during times of demand because they can double or triple their prices and their flights will still be full.  So I've bought some Delta that I plan on unloading as soon as it pops which is hopefully going to happen this week.  I will reinvest in Delta in March of 2021 when a vaccine is on the horizon.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Is there even ANY chance of this happening?

I could see us soft opening some things by May 31st if everything goes perfectly, but I don't think crowded parks with millions of people sneezing on each other will be a part of that.
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Yeah, no chance.  Maybe they will have the virtual park ready by then.

 
djmich said:
Nice, given he is currently chairman of the board he's pretty close to the product, I'm guessing he's not leaving his other salaried roles unless he feels good about the upside here.
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There might be a multi-billion dollar negotiation for Leronlimab coming up with a big pharmaceutical company.  They probably wanted someone other than Nader to do that negotiation.

 
Definitely up for getting dosed on the limeade should something terrible happen to me.

@General Malaise can I put you in charge of this one? Just let my wife know, I want the limeade!

Also have a playlist while I'm getting fed it, they can just roll this on repeat.

  • Green River
  • Green Eyed Lady
  • Green Grass and High Tides>Legalize It>Green Grass and High Tides
  • Scentless Apprentice
  • Someone Saved My Life Tonight
  • On Green Dolphin Street
  • Speak to Me/Breathe
  • Coconut
  • Sweet Leaf
  • Money





 
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Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Definitely up for getting dosed on the limeade should something terrible happen to me.

@General Malaise can I put you in charge of this one? Just let my wife know, I want the limeade!

Also have a playlist while I'm getting fed it, they can just roll this on repeat.

  • Green River
  • Green Eyed Lady
  • Green Grass and High Tides>Legalize It>Green Grass and High Tides
  • Blue in Green
  • On Green Dolphin Street
  • Sweet Leaf
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Request Mean Joe Greene to administer.

 
Roku shares are trading higher after the company issued preliminary Q1 sales guidance above estimates and expects Q1 streaming hours will be 13.2 billion, up 49% year over year.

Apr 13, 2020 4:55p ETBenzinga Stock Analysis

I've been a fan of ROKU since from before the virus. Wanted to buy earlier because I thought the virus would be beneficial. Should have bought earlier, but jumped in heavy after hours.

 
Had to pay a little over $105 for ROKU after hours and I usually find I could have gotten it cheaper waiting until the next day, but I may uy more tomorrow if it goes down.

I paid 150 for shares a few months back

 
cosjobs said:
Roku shares are trading higher after the company issued preliminary Q1 sales guidance above estimates and expects Q1 streaming hours will be 13.2 billion, up 49% year over year.

Apr 13, 2020 4:55p ETBenzinga Stock Analysis

I've been a fan of ROKU since from before the virus. Wanted to buy earlier because I thought the virus would be beneficial. Should have bought earlier, but jumped in heavy after hours.
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I bought some at 95 and more at 65. Will be holding it for a while. Wish I bought more as well. A bunch of stuff I bought too early in March kept going down and I dabbled on 3/16, just wish I went more in, but with AMZN as my largest holding, I can’t complain too much. I do think that for some things there will be discounts coming up. For stocks like Amazon and Netflix and Roku who are actually benefiting from this situation, I don’t see the same discount coming unless there’s an entire market sell off again.

 
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