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Stock Thread (36 Viewers)

lod001 said:
Dude, I think I'm in the matrix.
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I was thinking we were in an episode of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. 

"See, by transferring all of our cash into these Paddy's Dollars... and then printing more of these babies than we ever had in cash, we've upped our value."


 

 
Lacey said:
I’m very bad at this.  Sold DFS and BLMN yesterday to lock in some profits, both up 10% today.  Didn’t sell FRO and DHT when they were up 10% yesterday, now watching them down 15% from there.  
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it happens to everyone, not just you.  Try to enjoy the ride.

 
caustic said:
No problem -- there's not a smooth formula for cumulative probability with a binomial distribution, but with only 10 trials it's easy enough to calculate each probability individually and add them up. So if P(success) = .88 now, we tweak some numbers and get this:

P(10 failures): 10!/(10!0!) * (0.88)^0 * (.12)^10 = .0000000006

P(9 failures): 10!/(9!1!) * (0.88)^1 * (.12)^9 = .00000004

P(8 failures): 10!/(8!2!) * (0.88)^2 * (.12)^8 = .00000149

P(7 failures): 10!/(7!3!) * (0.88)^3 * (.12)^7 = .0000293

P(6 failures): 10!/(6!4!) * (0.88)^4 * (.12)^6 = .00038

To calculate the cumulative probability P(6 or more failures), you just add up those values to get roughly 0.04%.
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This amazes me that people have a nack for math.  especially as shown above.  This is a complement.  kudos dude!

 
Wish I could attach the Merrill Chief Investment Office whitepaper.   It's probably the best macro paper I've seen if you can get a hold of it.

 
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shadrap said:
not a cruise guy either.  if I'm on a boat I expect to be fishing.
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Yup and this is a big one for me:  I want to be on a boat WITH PEOPLE I LIKE.  The one and only cruise I had the misfortune of taking was festooned with some of the most miserable pukes I've ever encountered.  A full week with these troglodytes.  Fork that.

 
People chasing today......pure chasing. I will take it.....does not mater to me. 

If the market does nothing the rest of the year and stays here.....it is a massive victory for long term investors. 

TO only give back about 5-8% of last years gains (that is where we are today in my various models). HUGE VICTORY.

Stop the race. Stop the race.

LOL. 

 
urbanhack said:
Yea...this makes no sense as someone who has no officially been given word that I’ll not be doing back.  Such a mind ####.
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I'm with you.  Just watched a bunch of co-workers and friends in the same industry lose their jobs or get furloughed over the past couple weeks.  And those of us who were fortunate enough to make it through will work with a reduced salary for the remainder of 2020.

 
Al Czervik said:
I'm with you.  Just watched a bunch of co-workers and friends in the same industry lose their jobs or get furloughed over the past couple weeks.  And those of us who were fortunate enough to make it through will work with a reduced salary for the remainder of 2020.
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The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been so obvious as it is right now.....at this moment. 

The Equity Markets are in la la land right now. So just be ready if you have cash to pounce again. I simply can’t see this continuing much longer. If it does......to me it is pure market manipulation between the Fed and massive short covering. There is no other explanation. 

My clients are pretty much fully invested. I am fully invested.....I am trying to see where all this buying is coming from. So the only logical answers are Fed liquidity being pumped at historic rates and massive short covering......and then the late cycle chasers who never got in years ago or got out at the bottom near the end of March and are now chasing the market here as they beat the crap out of themselves for selling in the first place. 

No other explanation. 

Market should go up another 500 points promptly tomorrow.....LOL.

 
Todem said:
The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been so obvious as it is right now.....at this moment. 
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Most small businesses and much of the blue collar industry is not traded directly in the market.

There never was a direct connection is the argument I've been making.

No doubt the Feds actions have pumped the market.  

 
TripItUp said:
Most small businesses and much of the blue collar industry is not traded directly in the market.

There never was a direct connection is the argument I've been making.

No doubt the Feds actions have pumped the market.  
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Are the feds even still putting that much in?  I think they did it just enough to get people feeling safe again and let the market carry itself.

I mean here most of us are in this thread talking about how stupid it is for the market to be up this much while we sit on 0-10% cash with the rest in the market.

 
TripItUp said:
Most small businesses and much of the blue collar industry is not traded directly in the market.

There never was a direct connection is the argument I've been making.

No doubt the Feds actions have pumped the market.  
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I know that. My point is.......people who have no knowledge will run into the market at this level right now thinking.....oh must be a good time since it keeps going up. Little do they realize that the fallout on mainstream will no doubt works it’s way into corporate earnings over the next 2 quarters and cause another whoosh down when the fundamentals take over. Because trust me.....they do. 

So anyone sitting on cash.....sit tight. That is my main point. There will be another chance to buy cheaper than this. And people don’t want to hear that...or believe that who sold at the bottom.....and never got back in. So they are panicking now that they are missing the rally and will be left behind. 

The lows? Yeah you probably won’t see those again. But I am 100% convicted we are legging down again. A “W” is forming. This is just completely irrational what the Dow and S&P 500 are doing here. It’s quite frankly......ridiculous based on the short term impact of the shutdown. We have not seen the effects on the earnings and debt loads companies are taking on to “survive” the shutdown nor the impact of demand shrinking short term as we are going into a moderate recession. 

If we don’t....awesome. But man.....this is really wild. 

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Are the feds even still putting that much in?  I think they did it just enough to get people feeling safe again and let the market carry itself.

I mean here most of us are in this thread talking about how stupid it is for the market to be up this much while we sit on 0-10% cash with the rest in the market.
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There is nothing wrong in just chatting how stupid it is.....even though most of us are fully invested. Because it really is....just that stupid LOL!!!! It is certifiable actually. And astonishing and fascinating all at the same time. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Seems like the earnings play right now might be just to play all earnings on the positive side.  If the earnings underperform then it bounces most of the way back within a day anyway (IBM, AMD).  If the earnings have even slight unexpected good news then the stock blows up (GOOGL, BA).
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So I gave this a shot tonight.

Bought TSLA right before close for $797 ---> Sold AH for $830

Bought FB right before close for $195 ----> Sold AH for $211

Bought MSFT right before close for $177 -----> Sold AH for $182

Bought TDOC right before close for $175 ------> Currently still holding it at $170 (let's see if it rebounds tomorrow like IBM/AMD)

AMZN and AAPL report tomorrow evening....

 
Todem said:
There is nothing wrong in just chatting how stupid it is.....even though most of us are fully invested. Because it really is....just that stupid LOL!!!! It is certifiable actually. And astonishing and fascinating all at the same time. 
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Yeah no disagreement there.  It's just kind of self fulfilling prophecy.  It's doing so well because we (as in everyone, not just us) are fully invested.  Most of us started buying back in when the fed started buying because we didn't want to miss the run up, and now we are causing the run up by buying back in even without the fed doing as much.

 
-OZ- said:
I fully believe that to be the case.

But man it's hard to get out when you don't need the money right now and try to time the market.
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No doubt. I do not think anyone should be getting out......just if you have some cash....wait for the next leg down to put it to work. Because it is coming. 

 
Todem said:
No doubt. I do not think anyone should be getting out......just if you have some cash....wait for the next leg down to put it to work. Because it is coming. 
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Yeah, I'd also emphasize the normal rule, if you need the money in the next few years go conservative.

Which means I probably need to relook the college accounts, go closer to 60/40 for the 2 in HS. (One senior next year but will attend community college or a trade school, we might use some but much will roll down to his 5 yo sister. One will be a sophomore, pretty good chance of scholarships with a 4.0 and almost all honors and AP classes). 

 
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   3 hours ago,  Capella said: 

I’m in 

Sorry.  That didn't pan out.

   3 hours ago,  General Malaise said: 

Dumb question, but what happens when the average Joes and Janes just stop paying their credit card bills?  I think I know the answer; that credit cards really have no recourse and have to write that bad debt off, which is why we're going to see cutbacks in limits.  But my god, I can't imagine all the food servers, baristas, bartenders who racked up heavy credit card debt before and after losing their jobs being able to make payments on that unsecured debt.  

Either they pay or they subject themselves to higher car payments and renting for the next 3-7 years.  The company just writes it off in the case of the later.

 
I gave up 1.5% to the market today.  Absolutely a brutal day for me.  Tankers, TZA, CYDY, and too much cash.  Also didn't have any time to trade in a out of some stocks that offered call.

 
Todem said:
I know that. My point is.......people who have no knowledge will run into the market at this level right now thinking.....oh must be a good time since it keeps going up. Little do they realize that the fallout on mainstream will no doubt works it’s way into corporate earnings over the next 2 quarters and cause another whoosh down when the fundamentals take over. Because trust me.....they do. 

So anyone sitting on cash.....sit tight. That is my main point. There will be another chance to buy cheaper than this. And people don’t want to hear that...or believe that who sold at the bottom.....and never got back in. So they are panicking now that they are missing the rally and will be left behind. 

The lows? Yeah you probably won’t see those again. But I am 100% convicted we are legging down again. A “W” is forming. This is just completely irrational what the Dow and S&P 500 are doing here. It’s quite frankly......ridiculous based on the short term impact of the shutdown. We have not seen the effects on the earnings and debt loads companies are taking on to “survive” the shutdown nor the impact of demand shrinking short term as we are going into a moderate recession. 

If we don’t....awesome. But man.....this is really wild. 
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Agree with everything you posted.  nice to see someone's solid opinion that's not all wishy washy & full of easy way outs if it fails to materialize.

good luck to all.

 
Is it time to cut my losses on tankers or double down with the ship?

You would have thought I would have learned my lesson after Starbulk and Paragon.

 
Sweet Jesus, MGM up another 6% after hours - doubling my position when it fell to $13 last week has paid off quickly.

Between MGM and DFS I’ve rocketed past my pre-crash levels.  :towelwave:

 
caustic said:
Sweet Jesus, MGM up another 6% after hours - doubling my position when it fell to $13 last week has paid off quickly.

Between MGM and DFS I’ve rocketed past my pre-crash levels.  :towelwave:
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Still a ways to go here, ~11% down from the height in February. Can't complain too much.

 
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