Would you have any interest in posting here what it is you are doing so those interested could learn?
My opinions and decision are based primarily on trend. I've written about this many many times in here. But in short - Trends exist in multiple time-frames. There can be conflict between those. For example $XYZ could be bearish on a minute chart; bullish on an hourly chart; bearish on a daily chart; and bullish on a monthly chart. The longer the time-frame the more weight the trend carries. Within the trend there are identifiable targets for $XYZ based off of levels of support (floor) and resistance (ceiling). At the moment of a change in trend - is where trends are most vulnerable to a whipsaw. Long term trends take months to resolve and "flip". Often in the process of changing trend - there will be a violent move against the current trend (a massive move down in a bull trend)...afterwards there is a violent move back towards and in alignment with that trend.
It is also possible to measure "value" from trend analysis. In fact the original $GYPR post was just about that. The market was so over-valued (in fact never more over-valued in modern times) that a natural correction was going to take place. The market had a similar setup in the Fall of 2018 for reference. IMO the market was going to correct back to a level of "some" value regardless of the global pandemic. Such is the natural ebb and flow of market trends.
To be fair - I also look at cycles in analysis. There is some voodoo to that for sure. It is a small part of my analysis. For me cycles present "windows of opportunity" and are uncannily accurate enough of the time not to be ignored.
When I look for stocks or etfs to evaluate I also use common fundamental analysis. To me fundamentals tell you what to buy and technicals (trend) tells you when to buy it. It is a systematic approach. It can be slow. There is a lot of sitting around doing a lot of nothing - just waiting for the setup. The approach is rules-based.
Personally, I'm underwhelmed by anyone who lives by the notion of "you can't time the market." Probably in the same way of someone telling a meteorologist that "you can't predict the weather." There are technical tools available to everyone that can and do provide an edge. If you are interested in the weather it would be foolish to ignore modern tools of meteorology and understand the tools today are vastly different from the Farmers Almanac. The same is true for technical analysis for the stock market.
If you happen to think my pov is poppycock. You are a "you can't time the market" and "it's time in the market not timing the market"..that's fine by me. But in that case you should be 100% invested all of the time, and if you're not to me that would signal you have a conflict in your investing belief system. Conflicts in your investing philosophy are dangerous.
With all of that said - I got no problem with anyone doing anything. I love this thread just for this purpose. I guess what I'm saying is I have good intentions and best regards for all of you though many times I think to myself - WTF are these guys doing. Make no mistake - a significant portion of my job carries tremendous risk with the types of instruments I trade. However, that risk is measured. My concern is that some of you take on a level of extraordinary unmeasured risk - the consequences of which you may not fully understand - and time doesn't necessarily cure all bad decisions.