What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (4 Viewers)

sporthenry said:
Well I'm not ready to admit defeat or I'm in for a more painful lesson. Contrary to this thread, I'm not a huge trader. Just a lot of free time on my hands now and lot of vol so it's essentially passing the time. But most of my stuff is usually longer-term holds. When I jumped in to this, I knew two things. I had no idea what really drove these tankers on a day to day basis and that I may have to hold these for a few months. 

I usually leg in to stuff and if things move too quickly in my favor, I never get fully invested. Here, I've had the chance to get fully invested and then some. While I had hoped it would be a quick double, this could be more lucrative since I got to invest more. So a few weeks of poor price action hasn't scared me. Now if things continue in this trend two weeks from now, after earnings and June contract settlement, then I may take my tank and go home. These tankers are down 15%, 30%, 45% YTD while QQQs just turned positive for the year. These things are likely doubling their earnings for the year. And there just seems to be a dislocation in the market. Given where stocks are, I doubt tankers are going to be building new tanks and flooding the market (not to mention that can't happen overnight). So in what scenario is the economy justifying current valuations in the market that has tankers making 9k/d? I am sure there is a scenario but that seems like a perfect storm where everyone is going out, eating, cruises, airlines, etc but tankers aren't needed.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you said here. At this point in the cycle, tanker price action is highly dependent on fluctuations in the WTI/Brent front month futures contracts.

I listened to the $ASC (smaller product/chemical tanker) quarterly earnings call this morning, and the call was very bullish for the long term tanker trade.

1. Anticipates that 20% of entire world fleet will be used for storage. Estimates are that 8-10% are currently being used.

2. Credit for tankers is tight. It is the result of the current lending environment and the tanker industry. Moving forward, this means that there will be little to no credit for future shipbuilds which keeps the orderbook light, and ensures supply of tankers will continue to be constrained. This has historically been the downfall of the tanker industry, as when the going gets good, the tanker owners typically flood the market with supply which drives down rates.

3. The demand destruction will likely cause inefficient refineries near high demand locations to permanently shut down. This increases tonnage as product tankers will need to travel farther distances to transport the refined crude from the refineries to demand centers.

4. Management does not believe the floating storage component is going away any time soon.

5. Counterparty risk has not been an issue as of yet. Obtaining payment for demurrage has not been an issue.

All in all, very bullish for the long term prospects of tankers. I am looking forward to the $DHT call after market close to get the crude side of everything, but my read is that the product tanker market will likely stand to benefit the most moving forward. Purchased more $STNG and $DSSI at the dip today.

Currently holding in order of position size $STNG (largest product fleet), $DSSI (mix of product/crude); $TNK (mix of product/crude); $INSW (mix of product/crude); $EURN (crude); and $DHT (crude)

 
sporthenry said:
Rebounding hard though. Mancini more or less called it. Imagine this bounce off the lows means 3,000 is more likely than 2,700
Click to expand...
Not sure. He said ES=F needed to take out the morning lows which i believe it did at least temporarily. It's back to 9:30 this morning levels.

 
I'm just a 403(b) buy and hold forever guy but this afternoon I did something I've never done before, through the dot-com bust when I was early 30s, to 2008 when I was late 30s, to now when I'm early 50s - get out of equities (moved about 80% of my balance). I think we're heading off a cliff with this pandemic and the worst, by far, is yet to come.

If I'm wrong and I miss a big bounce, I can live with it. But the losses will eat away at me if I was right and didn't do anything to safeguard the funds it's taken me 30 years to build up. 

 
siffoin said:
This was a very good idea, but brought to you guys way too early.  I really regret that.

It's something I kept picking at...trying to figure it out.  It evolved.

These days it is a monthly rotation that selects 2 stocks.  Basically an algorithm runs each month that selects the 2 best stocks.  It holds those for 1 month and the selection process runs again.  It's possible a "top" stock remains selected for more than 1 month.  The system got tested for about 18 months and then went live trading last year.  Under the current market I'm choosing not to run the algo...and that part of the portfolio is just in cash.  When it runs I have no idea what stocks might be selected.  Many times I've never even heard of them. It's done well imo.  If you are interested in the results pm me.
Click to expand...
Sounds like some of the screeners in the Fool Mechanical investing board.  Followed those for a while and they did  good, but the transaction penalties at the time were pretty severe.

I'd be interested to compare up against some of those old ones that are out there.

 
Tankers seem to be up about 2 1/2% after hours. I did add to my position at close. Not really sure why other than a guy feel that things were oversold today. Trying to dollar cost down my share price

 
DHT earnings: EBITDA of $128 million. In 1Q, they did half of what they did in all of 2019. Paid down $75mn of debt. Quarterly dividend of $0.35 which would equate to a 20% div yield if you annualized that. VLCC's earned $64k/day in 1Q. Thus far in Q2, spot rates are averaging $110k/d.

Q2 revenues look light $164.4mn vs Q1 of $153mn. They have a lot of open days which I'm not sure is just the remaining open spot days in the quarter or open days they expect to be in the quarter. Still solid numbers but was expecting higher Q2. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Tankers seem to be up about 2 1/2% after hours. I did add to my position at close. Not really sure why other than a guy feel that things were oversold today. Trying to dollar cost down my share price
Click to expand...
DHT just announced Q1 earnings and 5% dividend of $0.35/share. Also guided for Q2 adjusted net revenue of $164.4M. To put that into perspective, 2020 YTD through Q2 would have adjusted net revenues of $316.9M vs. full year 2019 adjusted net revenues of $347.6M.

 
sporthenry said:
DHT earnings: EBITDA of $128 million. In 1Q, they did half of what they did in all of 2019. Paid down $75mn of debt. Quarterly dividend of $0.35 which would equate to a 20% div yield if you annualized that. VLCC's earned $64k/day in 1Q. Thus far in Q2, spot rates are averaging $110k/d.

Q2 revenues look light $164.4mn vs Q1 of $153mn. They have a lot of open days which I'm not sure is just the remaining open spot days in the quarter or open days they expect to be in the quarter. Still solid numbers but was expecting higher Q2. 
Click to expand...
I'm interested to get more color on the open revenue days. It represents ~24% of the the days in Q2 and would significantly impact DHT's results. Uneducated guess is that it represents unbooked spot rates for the remainder of Q + any unutilized spot rate days QTD.

 
sporthenry said:
DHT earnings: EBITDA of $128 million. In 1Q, they did half of what they did in all of 2019. Paid down $75mn of debt. Quarterly dividend of $0.35 which would equate to a 20% div yield if you annualized that. VLCC's earned $64k/day in 1Q. Thus far in Q2, spot rates are averaging $110k/d.

Q2 revenues look light $164.4mn vs Q1 of $153mn. They have a lot of open days which I'm not sure is just the remaining open spot days in the quarter or open days they expect to be in the quarter. Still solid numbers but was expecting higher Q2. 
Click to expand...
That's a huge dividend.  

@sporthenry Do you see anything at all that says anything other than hold for 3 months?

 
DIS surviving alright.  Was kind of hoping it would dip further into the 90's during afterhours so I could add some more.  

 
commoncents said:
I'm interested to get more color on the open revenue days. It represents ~24% of the the days in Q2 and would significantly impact DHT's results. Uneducated guess is that it represents unbooked spot rates for the remainder of Q + any unutilized spot rate days QTD.
Click to expand...
Yes, that is my belief as well. Only these guys could screw up an outlook when running record results. Maybe I should just consult them on how to present this stuff. You don't present something as an 'outlook' when it only represents ~80% of expected revenue. I had estimated ~$200mn in revs for the quarter at an average spot rate of $100k. Just off what they presented, even if you get 60k/day for the remaining days, will get to that $200mn which probably puts you in the $150-$175mn in EBITDA range.

 
BassNBrew said:
That's a huge dividend.  

@sporthenry Do you see anything at all that says anything other than hold for 3 months?
Click to expand...
Not after clearing up that revenue issue. I mean I'll monitor the others and hopefully they present it clearer. Call is at 8am so hopefully will have clarity before the open. I'll let commoncents comment as well since he seems even closer. But no, I'm not selling at these levels after those results. Now if it gets to $9 or $10, I'd probably start to lighten up. 

 
beef said:
DIS surviving alright.  Was kind of hoping it would dip further into the 90's during afterhours so I could add some more.  
Click to expand...
May still get that with the dividend cut. Could put the tinfoil hat on and say that is just for optics but could see some selling on that.

 
Planning to buy back into DIS after this current pullback going on after their earnings call.  It seems like a solid long term hold and at sub-100 should be a great bargain.

 
sporthenry said:
May still get that with the dividend cut. Could put the tinfoil hat on and say that is just for optics but could see some selling on that.
Click to expand...
It is dropping more.  Have a feeling I'll be adding more soon.  These DIS shares are in my Roth, and pretty much going to be my girls' wedding funds since that will be around my retirement age.  If they want a princess wedding DIS better perform.  Or maybe they'll be smart and go to the courthouse and save the shares.    

 
sporthenry said:
Not after clearing up that revenue issue. I mean I'll monitor the others and hopefully they present it clearer. Call is at 8am so hopefully will have clarity before the open. I'll let commoncents comment as well since he seems even closer. But no, I'm not selling at these levels after those results. Now if it gets to $9 or $10, I'd probably start to lighten up. 
Click to expand...
I think DHT is a solid hold.Their Q1 (and Q2 guidance) could have been even better if they didn't time charter a large portion of their fleet at ~$35K/day. I expect that EURN and FRO will outperform DHT in Q1 and Q2 guidance as they have more exposure to spot daily rates. Whether DHT's conservative approach pays off, remains to be seen when spot rates begin to soften in Q3 and beyond.

I could be wrong, but I am of the belief that we will see contango return again. As long as there is oil surplus, contango needs to exist to store the excess oil. My uneducated guess is we see it return and spot rates will firm up and possibly run again.

 
The_Man said:
I'm just a 403(b) buy and hold forever guy but this afternoon I did something I've never done before, through the dot-com bust when I was early 30s, to 2008 when I was late 30s, to now when I'm early 50s - get out of equities (moved about 80% of my balance). I think we're heading off a cliff with this pandemic and the worst, by far, is yet to come.

If I'm wrong and I miss a big bounce, I can live with it. But the losses will eat away at me if I was right and didn't do anything to safeguard the funds it's taken me 30 years to build up. 
Click to expand...
I hope it works out for you. Just a reminder for you or others that the stock market does NOT equal the economy. They can be quite different in the short term. 

 
commoncents said:
I think DHT is a solid hold.Their Q1 (and Q2 guidance) could have been even better if they didn't time charter a large portion of their fleet at ~$35K/day. I expect that EURN and FRO will outperform DHT in Q1 and Q2 guidance as they have more exposure to spot daily rates. Whether DHT's conservative approach pays off, remains to be seen when spot rates begin to soften in Q3 and beyond.

I could be wrong, but I am of the belief that we will see contango return again. As long as there is oil surplus, contango needs to exist to store the excess oil. My uneducated guess is we see it return and spot rates will firm up and possibly run again.
Click to expand...
Slight comment or question. Think they fixed the 6 at $67k unless you're talking about the 4 they had fixed previously. Honestly, 60k/d for a year is pretty good. They essentially paid for all of their expenses with those ships so spot rate from the rest is pure profit. I kinda like that trade. 

 
sporthenry said:
Slight comment or question. Think they fixed the 6 at $67k unless you're talking about the 4 they had fixed previously. Honestly, 60k/d for a year is pretty good. They essentially paid for all of their expenses with those ships so spot rate from the rest is pure profit. I kinda like that trade. 
Click to expand...
I believe they have ten VLCC's that have been fixed for extended charters. I did some digging and it looks like 4 of them were contracted at $31,500/day with expirations in 2021/2022 and 6 were contracted in Q1 at $67,300/day for a year.

The 6 charters at $67,300 are likely going to work out well, but if we compare DHT's Q1/Q2 to FRO and EURN, I suspect that it will underperform as FRO and EURN's CEO's have gone on the record that they prefer to be exposed to spot rates. Just different strategies of taking profits off the table vs. letting it ride.

 
chet said:
There are a lot of pissed off shareholders because of Nader's gaffe.  However, on to bigger and better things and a higher share price!
Click to expand...
I'm on the cydy bus, but honestly none of us really know if it was truly a financial sacrifice compounded by a gaffe or cashing out while the gettin was good.  Guess we'll find out at least on the covid front over the next month.

 
sporthenry said:
Sorry if unclear bought the debit (bearish put spread). Just looking for unusual option activity that mimics my fundamental view on companies. DIS makes all of its money on things that are getting crushed. Investors may not look beyond DIS Plus numbers but have to think the amount of money they're losing there will put a damper on things. And market may like what they hear about reopening. But that's why I'm just taking advantage of elevated IV. Entered DIS May 8 100/98P for $0.70. 

ETA: I mostly mentioned it just to let the DIS longs that there are a lot of puts being traded. I mean I'm just gambling small but couldn't pass up an almost 2 to 1 risk reward. 
Click to expand...
Good call. Er, put.

 
sporthenry said:
Not after clearing up that revenue issue. I mean I'll monitor the others and hopefully they present it clearer. Call is at 8am so hopefully will have clarity before the open. I'll let commoncents comment as well since he seems even closer. But no, I'm not selling at these levels after those results. Now if it gets to $9 or $10, I'd probably start to lighten up. 
Click to expand...
Thanks.  My confidence is waning.  Good financial numbers seem to be a stock killer in this market and bad numbers seemed to be shrugged off.

Let's pay off $75mm (90%) worth of debt and while we're at it, give the shareholders a 20% dividend.  Oh yeah, we have these assets called tankers that aren't going anywhere.  Also worth mentioning, next quarter people are going to pay us double not to run our some of our tankers and even those that are running be be using fuel at prices from the 1980s.

 
beef said:
DIS surviving alright.  Was kind of hoping it would dip further into the 90's during afterhours so I could add some more.  
Click to expand...
That's really not out of the question.   I don't think you need to be in any rush if you have a better price in mind.   You can give this one some time, parks aren't reopening anytime soon and even when they do, not sure how far people are going to be travelling to get there.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wooderson said:
I’ve been on this board so long my wife doesn’t even skip a beat when I talk about FBG people anymore. 
Kinda strange. 😬
Click to expand...
Lol. Me too! In fact a lot of times when a new topic we’re talking about comes up she says “what does your football thing say?”  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
HIV TREATMENT TO BE TESTED ON COVID-19 PATIENTS

https://nbcpalmsprings.com/2020/05/05/hiv-treatment-to-be-tested-on-covid-19-patients/

It’s being called a medical break-through in the making. A local group of clinical researchers are studying a drug that was formerly used to treat HIV to see if it can help people diagnosed with COVID-19.

“We’re crossing our fingers, yes,” Dr. Carlos Martinez, chief medical officer at Palmtree Clinical Research, said.

It’s a race to find treatments for COVID-19 across the world and Dr. Martinez is hoping Leronlimab could be the answer.

 “Your body’s immune system kind of starts shooting off all these deadly cells that can eventually cause your body to have very severe inflammation and very severe reaction,” he said. 

Dr. Martinez said the drug is supposed to block that process. The goal is to help patients who test positive for the virus in the beginning stages when they have mild to moderate symptoms to keep them from being hospitalized.

Clinical trials are set to begin next week. The office will conduct a consent process over the phone before the patient comes in to make sure they qualify for the treatment.

During the trials, the researchers are gowned up and the patient is led to a room where they give written consent, get a physical and have their blood drawn.

After that, the medication is prepared. Some patients will get the actual medication and others will get a placebo.

The first syringe is used to pull out the medication and the second syringe is used for the injection that will be given to the patient in the abdomen; one shot on the left side and one shot on the right side.

The blood samples are then spun and saved for testing.

“Every single week we see them to make sure their symptoms don’t get worse or that everything is actually under control,” Dr. Martinez said.

Having done several other clinical trials, Dr. Martinez said he is ready to get to work.

“I’m very excited actually, to be honest with you, it’s a very interesting study,” he said. “I’m hoping that it is, like we mentioned earlier, one of those breakthrough drugs.”

Dr. Martinez said Leronlimab has minimal side effects. Ten other sites across the country are also conducting trials and are all in collaboration with the site in Palm Springs.

If you are diagnosed with COVID-19 and want to participate in the trials, contact Palmtree Clinical Research at (760) 778-7799.
Click to expand...

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
104
Views
3K
KGB
KGB
Andrew74
2023 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
98
Views
5K
KGB
KGB
KGB
Crypto vs stock market
Replies
10
Views
977
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 4 (members: 0, guests: 4)
Top