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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

Anyone looking at the SelectQuote IPO? Feels like a solid but underhyped no-brainer kind of like TW was. If it doesn’t open too crazily high past the IPO price I’ll dabble 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Another 2.4mm jobs lost. 38mm total, a lot of these could be lost forever and not as many will come back on as quickly as anticipated. It feels like this market as a whole is completely detaching from reality, valuations currently mean nothing, and the market continues just chugging along. It really makes no sense to me and I don’t see how a path higher is sustainable unless something major happens soon.

Does everyone get their job back during the back half of 2020 and life resumes as normal in 2021? Is that the bull thesis? It’s starting to feel like that theory is becoming more and more improbable.
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Agreed.  Listening to some the talking head quests on CNBC I've noticed a shift in forecasting/pricing dates for defending these current markets.  Early April I heard a lot of pricing ahead to the end of 2020.  Then it shifted to 2021, and now this week I've heard a few 2022's.  

 
Plorfu said:
Tradeweb (TW) looks like one of those "boring" (as opposed to Lyft)  IPO's that might just take off - opens Thursday I think. Anyone here looking at this? 
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This is what I, er, I mean this guy said about TW. It’s up about 50% and has just been steady. SLQT feels similar.

 
lod001 said:
Took a shot at NVDA overnight and got it at 361.2. Earnings are after the bell. If good, the robinhooders should jump all over it.
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Ugh, another stock sitting on my list. Damn, why did I buy into the super fear of a huge down turn. I thought about buying at $190, SMH. So many stocks I watch that I didn’t purchase. All of them at least 50% up since that 3/16-3/23 period and 4/3. My biggest lesson that I learned was that if you like a stock and it’s at a great buy level, just invest and wait. Still only at 15% cash, so definitely enjoying the ride, but I should have pounced on those stocks that in February were way too rich and in March/early April looked great. I’m glad I did buy some and I’m glad I’ll be better prepared next time.

 
stbugs said:
Ugh, another stock sitting on my list. Damn, why did I buy into the super fear of a huge down turn. I thought about buying at $190, SMH. So many stocks I watch that I didn’t purchase. All of them at least 50% up since that 3/16-3/23 period and 4/3. My biggest lesson that I learned was that if you like a stock and it’s at a great buy level, just invest and wait. Still only at 15% cash, so definitely enjoying the ride, but I should have pounced on those stocks that in February were way too rich and in March/early April looked great. I’m glad I did buy some and I’m glad I’ll be better prepared next time.
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Hindsight is 20/20

 
stbugs said:
Ugh, another stock sitting on my list. Damn, why did I buy into the super fear of a huge down turn. I thought about buying at $190, SMH. So many stocks I watch that I didn’t purchase. All of them at least 50% up since that 3/16-3/23 period and 4/3. My biggest lesson that I learned was that if you like a stock and it’s at a great buy level, just invest and wait. Still only at 15% cash, so definitely enjoying the ride, but I should have pounced on those stocks that in February were way too rich and in March/early April looked great. I’m glad I did buy some and I’m glad I’ll be better prepared next time.
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How much better prepared could you be?  You're up 60% or something.  Can't own everything.

 
BassNBrew said:
That's what NASDAQ is saying.  They do get a hearing though.  

This feels like a slow bleed to 20 cents.
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Yea I was tempted to try it the other day when they came back and ride that roller coaster for a bit but I agree, this thing is going to die. 

 
chet said:
I agree the HIV space is crowded but it's CYDY's least valuable indication.  They will get approval, and have estimated 20-40k patients will use their therapy annually after ramp up.  Their therapy has no side effects, doesn't develop resistance and is more effective than what's available now or in the pipeline.  

COVID-19 and cancer are both potential game changers for CYDY.  The issue is that big pharma is taking all of the oxygen in the room--see this scathing interview of William Haseltine where he eviscerates Moderna and Gilead.   That's ok--CYDY has to continue to execute, not make any more stupid mistakes and achieve results.  Their time to shine will come.

Big pharma's arrogance and influence is becoming much more evident.  Their willingness to tout ineffective therapies and actively work to undermine small companies with potentially effective treatments is ethically dubious and is costing lives.  To be clear, this rant is not directed toward @Whyatt.  I strongly encourage everyone to watch the interview linked above for a little insight into the games that big pharma is playing.

#notselling
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CYDY going to Mexico for exposure and validation is a way to counter this. Seems like an intelligent and assertive move. Additionally, Mexico may be in very bad shape and seeking alternative txs with more effective results.

 
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Lacey said:
Do you buy VZ and T mostly for the steady dividend or expect price increases in the stock too? 
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Dividend with slow growth. Very defensive part of the portfolio for me. 

 
Slapdash said:
How does it work when you put these things in after hours if it gaps through the level you set? The whole afterhours market is not one I had looked at closely, as I'm fairly new to trading individual names vs funds.
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If it gaps down and you simply place a stop and not a stop limit....you can get burned. I do stop limits for that reason. If I have a stop on a stock that is really selling off....and we get super close to it and it is near the end of the day.....I may pull the trigger slightly above that stock if I feel it will drop more the next day....and I want out and feel it could gap down after market. 

You gotta stay on top of it. 

 
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Moonlight said:
CYDY going to Mexico for exposure and validation is a way to counter this. Seems like an intelligent and assertive move. Additionally, Mexico may be in very bad shape and seeking alternative txs with more effective results.
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It's not without risks but they want to get the story out.  Their anecdotal results have been nothing but spectacular and I know they're going to soon be delivering interim data to the FDA for their phase 2 mild-moderate study.

By going to Mexico first, they run the risk of upsetting the volatile administration thus creating more of an uphill battle in this country.  Of course, that's assuming their results continue to impress.  However, you could also argue they might use it as a reason to blame the slow FDA and demand they move faster.  Not trying to make this political--intentionally trying to be somewhat vague so as to not derail the thread.

 
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chet said:
In the best of circumstances, shorting is a dangerous game. The present administration seems intent on having some kind of vaccine by Election Day and as of now, Moderna is the golden child. Not saying you’re wrong, just saying you could be right and still wrong. 
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So I just bought two MRNA puts (October, 40 strike, $6 premium each--sheesh). The way I see it, if their vaccine is effective, I don't mind losing some premium given that everything else I own will be positively effected. If their vaccine fails, at least I'll have a silver lining. Small price to pay for some insurance.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
I guess that no one worries about capital gains while selling short term? Or is everyone in a tax-advantaged account?
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When I am trading short term like I am with BLMN and MGM and now CCL I am not pinching pennies. You gotta pay short term capitol gains to play. No way around it. 

In IRA’s obviously it does not apply. 

Same thing with options trading. It is all taxed at ordinary income tax rates (short term capitol gains). That is the rake at the casino we call the stock market. 

 
SLQT indicated to open at $26.00 now whenever that happens. I put in a limit order for about 1/3 of a position at 27.00 so I don't have to keep monitoring it. I'm fine to get in here but it might not be enough.

 
Todem said:
When I am trading short term like I am with BLMN and MGM and now CCL I am not pinching pennies. You gotta pay short term capitol gains to play. No way around it. 

In IRA’s obviously it does not apply. 

Same thing with options trading. It is all taxed at ordinary income tax rates (short term capitol gains). That is the rake at the casino we call the stock market. 
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This is an interesting point. 

Right now, I don't touch our Roth IRAs or TSP more than maybe once a month, usually quarterly. But my regular brokerage is where I trade a bit. Nowhere near what some of y'all are doing. But maybe I have that backwards. Could make my Roth IRA my trading account and make my regular brokerage another buy and hold account. So far I've just been willing to pay the taxes as my trading account is fairly small, but it will probably get larger than my Roth IRA by the end of the year.

 
lod001 said:
Hell no. The way the market is right now, this is free money. You could throw #### against the wall and it would go up.

If the options are don't make $ and pay no taxes on zero vs make $ and pay whatever the tax is, I'll choose make $ sitting in front of a computer screen every time.
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Fair enough. 

 
Funds finally cleared so I'm on TOS. Gambling a small amount on puts but glad to have some cash ready to buy some dips. Appreciate everyone in here contributing, I've learned a lot. 

 
-OZ- said:
This is an interesting point. 

Right now, I don't touch our Roth IRAs or TSP more than maybe once a month, usually quarterly. But my regular brokerage is where I trade a bit. Nowhere near what some of y'all are doing. But maybe I have that backwards. Could make my Roth IRA my trading account and make my regular brokerage another buy and hold account. So far I've just been willing to pay the taxes as my trading account is fairly small, but it will probably get larger than my Roth IRA by the end of the year.
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I have a smaller IRA (not my 401K) from a rollover years back......I will make some trades in it because of th tax advantage I get.

But the bulk of my assets are in a taxable account. Been building this since I was 17 years old. I pay taxes on trades....I typically do not trade unless I am in volatile bear markets like this. It is times like these where the most money is to be made on short term trading. Not bull markets where I am a very disciplined buy and hold type of investor. 

I can almost assure you once we get through this bear market and start our next cyclical bull.....you won’t see me posting much about trading. I venture in here when the market is like this.....not when we are in a good growth/bull trend. 

I pick my spots to make fast trades. 

Do I see trades sometimes in bull markets? Yeah but I buy and hold typically on names that simply get beaten down due to some bad news. Remember way back when Walmart was being sold off because everyone thought Amazon would take over the world? I was picking up WMT at 56-60 a share when the street felt they would never get with the program of online. Did the same with TGT when they had their security breech and also fears of not being able to complete with Amazon.

Bought and held both to this day. Both with growing dividends and great growth actually. 

So it is those type of situations I look for during bull markets.

During panic? I look for consumer sensitive names like we have done with MGM, BLMN and now CCL (although I may hold CCL long and add on dips as I believe they will be a strong survivor in the cruise industry.....and the moment we get a legit vaccine this stock will pop hard). 

Disney.....once I see it go under 100 again we will enter back in. And maybe think about going long again.....because again once a vaccine is announced (again we have no idea when or if one will happen) that stock will race again. But earnings are getting walloped in DIS right now.....and moving forward until they get back to full capacity....which no one knows when that can happen. 

 
I'm not sure if this was smart or a screw up.

Son #4's college account is with USAA, which is moving to Schwab now. When I sold his Disney shares I had planned to move to 70/30 VTI/BND before they moved. I missed the window and now can't buy in that account. 

He does have a small amount of KOPN in there, which has been on a tear lately. Like triple. But that's after it fell by a ton. But otherwise he's all cash now and I can't buy until May 26. 

 
Todem said:
When I am trading short term like I am with BLMN and MGM and now CCL I am not pinching pennies. You gotta pay short term capitol gains to play. No way around it. 

In IRA’s obviously it does not apply. 

Same thing with options trading. It is all taxed at ordinary income tax rates (short term capitol gains). That is the rake at the casino we call the stock market. 
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Yeah, get that. Just don't get trading long term stocks you like as though they are short term plays. DIS is particular. Why sell at $120 when you got in at $100 just because you think it will drop back to $100 again? Especially if you like it to be around $140-$150 in a year or two. Just hold it to $150 and pay less capital gain on it. 

Just seems to me like needless gambling. But maybe I'm too conservative. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Yeah, get that. Just don't get trading long term stocks you like as though they are short term plays. DIS is particular. Why sell at $120 when you got in at $100 just because you think it will drop back to $100 again? Especially if you like it to be around $140-$150 in a year or two. Just hold it to $150 and pay less capital gain on it. 

Just seems to me like needless gambling. But maybe I'm too conservative. 
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Because I feel like we will be able to trade this thing like this for the next year. I simply do not see earnings that will support 140-150. That price is lubricous to think about in the next 1-2 years IMO. 

It is my thoughts on it. 

I rather trade it.

We made a bundle on this position for my clients and myself. 

I am not overly bullish on them. Felt at 140-150 they were overvalued anyway. And now with all this.....they are trading at a very high multiple with negative growth outlooks for at least 12 months.....at least. It is seriously hard to imagine people going into theme parks like cattle for the next 12 months (maybe longer as behavior is now changing around that short term)....that will kill their earnings growth for at least 3 quarters....could be longer. I rather keep trading the pops and drops now. 

Again just my thoughts. I have no emotional investment in any company I own. 

 
Thanks to you guys (Todem especially) I dropped DIS at just over 119 after buying at 100 a week or two ago. Looking to get back if it nears 100 again.

 
Nice find on the article.  I just posted the following at IHUB:

Nice find and positive on the drug but Dr. Seethamraju is taking a lot of the credit for himself and some of the claims related to the hospital's involvement are misleading. Specifically, I am referring to: 

Based on the positive results with those patients, the FDA approved Dr. Seethamraju’s application for a phase 2 trial of leronlimab. That trial began enrolling both inpatients and outpatients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 on April 2. A total of 75 will participate.
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The above neglects to mention CytoDyn or Dr. Patterson. Seems to me that Dr. Seethamraju is trying to take more credit than he is due.
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Capella said:
Yea I was tempted to try it the other day when they came back and ride that roller coaster for a bit but I agree, this thing is going to die. 
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I’m holding my $200. I want to figure out where this crapper will trade so I can make an Internet call to some Boiler Room in Wuhan and sell it for a dog and two bats.

 
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