What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

beef said:
I hear you.  More breakouts happening and fear is building up again.  Seems unlikely there will be a good news Covid weekend.  A big rebound today would go right in line with what we saw in Feb/March after huge drops.  I was expecting to see this rise today which is why I went in on FAS and TNA.  I will NOT hold these over the weekend though.  
Click to expand...
I agree with you about the more breakouts happening--but I disagree about fear building up again.  I'd say that maybe 30-40% of the population is understanding that the virus is spreading at an accelerated rate and the rest of the people just don't care or are putting their heads in the sand.   Seems like most people forget that the plan/hope was that the virus would fizzle down during these warm months knowing that there will likely be a spike in the fall.  We're doing just the opposite.  The numbers are spiking and they are fueling the fire by opening businesses that make social distancing impossible. This is not just an LA thing--its happening in many places.   I'm still bullish long term--but we're trending the wrong way big time in the short term to medium term solely in regards to Covid. I think this could lead to some turbulent/volatile times for the markets. 

 
beef said:
TD, Fidelity, RH, Schwab, all rethinking their no commission fees...
Click to expand...
They are just getting as many people investing as possible and then they will slowly start charging.  Maybe only like 25 cents per transaction or something but probably will consistantly increase.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
They are just getting as many people investing as possible and then they will slowly start charging.  Maybe only like 25 cents per transaction or something but probably will consistantly increase.  
Click to expand...
But don't they make their money selling the trading data to HFTs so they can front run? I'm sure HFTs will pay more for that data than they would otherwise make charging small commission fees since most people don't trade like BnB lol. 

 
@beef I think it was you who mentioned FMCI. They announced their agreement to merge with Tatooed Chef. Any thoughts? The market cap they mentioned in the article is about 50% above the current price. How does that work? I bought a little but I’m not sure in the non-bounce is due to the shock of yesterday (early gains being trimmed). Is this a wait until the merger happens play? Just some fun money.

 
Adios SAVE. Took a slight 2% loss. I simply hate airlines and regret that trade. It happens.

Holding MGM and The Onion we know they will go up more for another nice quick hit trade.

 
CTIB, another Chinese company with no volume jumping on millions of volume. Like clockwork. Whoever is kicking this stuff off is brilliant. Seems like you just need a couple accounts that bid up lots of shares early (amongst themselves), wait for the volume to be noticed and then dump your shares.

 
stbugs said:
@beef I think it was you who mentioned FMCI. They announced their agreement to merge with Tatooed Chef. Any thoughts? The market cap they mentioned in the article is about 50% above the current price. How does that work? I bought a little but I’m not sure in the non-bounce is due to the shock of yesterday (early gains being trimmed). Is this a wait until the merger happens play? Just some fun money.
Click to expand...
I'm not in it but when I was looking into it, I got the impression people were really hoping the company was going to be Impossible.

 
Todem said:
Adios SAVE. Took a slight 2% loss. I simply hate airlines and regret that trade. It happens.

Holding MGM and The Onion we know they will go up more for another nice quick hit trade.
Click to expand...
I did the same.  I took more than a 2% loss, probably closer to 10% because I bought a smaller amount yesterday.   I also trimmed about 1/4 of each of my other positions.  If things go up next week great, if not I will have more reserves to buy.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Just sold most my CYDY stake for a small 10% gain. Kept a little bit for some YOLO fun on this thread. Good luck to everyone. 
Click to expand...
Still HODL. I’m up over $20k on this thing so I’m damn tempted to exit but it seems like it’s just a few week more hold. If CV cases do climb and the results are solid and they uplist, that’s a lot of potential. I know it’s some ifs but I’ve got a nice cushion. Hard to decide on the bird in the hand or a Del Frisco’s dinner not too far away.

 
stbugs said:
@beef I think it was you who mentioned FMCI. They announced their agreement to merge with Tatooed Chef. Any thoughts? The market cap they mentioned in the article is about 50% above the current price. How does that work? I bought a little but I’m not sure in the non-bounce is due to the shock of yesterday (early gains being trimmed). Is this a wait until the merger happens play? Just some fun money.
Click to expand...
I was tailing @caustic on this one.    

The FMCI shares should convert to the new IPO ticker.  Will have to look into that more to see if it will be 1-1.  My plan is to hold until this merger is final and the IPO is live. 

And good point @McBokonon.  It was Impossible.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
McBokonon said:
I'm not in it but when I was looking into it, I got the impression people were really hoping the company was going to be Impossible.
Click to expand...
FMCI has a market cap of $300M. Impossible is way too big for that I would think. I guess the terms probably make it so that it wouldn’t matter. I’m not really sure. 

 
beef said:
I was tailing @caustic on this one.    

The FMCI shares should convert to the new IPO ticker.  Will have to look into that more to see if it will be 1-1.  My plan is to hold until this merger is final and the IPO is live. 
Click to expand...
I will too. Honestly, for a company growing at 67%, a 2.2x price to revenue number is pretty good. Based on expected market cap, that’s a 50% gain right there. I just know very little about them.

 
stbugs said:
I will too. Honestly, for a company growing at 67%, a 2.2x price to revenue number is pretty good. Based on expected market cap, that’s a 50% gain right there. I just know very little about them.
Click to expand...
Great heads-up on this news. :thumbup: Guess I know what I'll be reading up on over the weekend.  

 
stbugs said:
@beef I think it was you who mentioned FMCI. They announced their agreement to merge with Tatooed Chef. Any thoughts? The market cap they mentioned in the article is about 50% above the current price. How does that work? I bought a little but I’m not sure in the non-bounce is due to the shock of yesterday (early gains being trimmed). Is this a wait until the merger happens play? Just some fun money.
Click to expand...
I am far far far from an expert on these things but a quick look (will be reading a lot more over the next few days) it looks like a pretty decent company.  FMCI is dropping because people had that pie in the sky idea of it being Impossible Foods, which all the robinhooders have heard of.

I doubt it goes to the moon now like it might have were it Impossible, but it seems to me like a case of people selling because that wasn't it but then it should bounce back into something solid once folks realize it is actually a pretty solid company they are getting instead.

 
stbugs said:
CTIB, another Chinese company with no volume jumping on millions of volume. Like clockwork. Whoever is kicking this stuff off is brilliant. Seems like you just need a couple accounts that bid up lots of shares early (amongst themselves), wait for the volume to be noticed and then dump your shares.
Click to expand...
CHNR is another one.  Closed at .95 yesterday, opened at 4.81 today, went to 5.56 and now sputtering.  

Wonder who decides these targets and gets the word out...  

 
Jayrok said:
CHNR is another one.  Closed at .95 yesterday, opened at 4.81 today, went to 5.56 and now sputtering.  

Wonder who decides these targets and gets the word out...  
Click to expand...
I don't think they even need to "get the word out".  Just place a huge buy order on a low float stock.  Then that stock shows up in all the scanners with the biggest gains for the day.  Robinhooders see something up 400% and want to get in on the action without knowing anything except that it is a stock that is up 400%, and the rest takes care of itself.

Someone definitely taking advantage of all the new casual gamblers in the market.

 
stbugs said:
Still HODL. I’m up over $20k on this thing so I’m damn tempted to exit but it seems like it’s just a few week more hold. If CV cases do climb and the results are solid and they uplist, that’s a lot of potential. I know it’s some ifs but I’ve got a nice cushion. Hard to decide on the bird in the hand or a Del Frisco’s dinner not too far away.
Click to expand...
If you get rich on CYDY than I insist on you buying me at least 2 beers at Hickory Tavern. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I am far far far from an expert on these things but a quick look (will be reading a lot more over the next few days) it looks like a pretty decent company.  FMCI is dropping because people had that pie in the sky idea of it being Impossible Foods, which all the robinhooders have heard of.

I doubt it goes to the moon now like it might have were it Impossible, but it seems to me like a case of people selling because that wasn't it but then it should bounce back into something solid once folks realize it is actually a pretty solid company they are getting instead.
Click to expand...
Weird because I've kind of heard of "Tattooed Chef" before and really didn't know much about "Impossible".  But then, look at my name?   

 
CR69 said:
But don't they make their money selling the trading data to HFTs so they can front run? I'm sure HFTs will pay more for that data than they would otherwise make charging small commission fees since most people don't trade like BnB lol. 
Click to expand...
This.  

 
A few interesting IPOs today.

Vaxcyte - symbol PCVX - biotech vaccine company priced at $16 which was top of the expected range.  Bouncing around $21 right now before open.

The Azek Company - symbol AZEK - environmental outdoor living company.   Priced at $23 above expected $19-$21.  

Burning Rock Biotech - symbol BNR - biotech company focused in oncology.  Priced at $16.50 above $13.50-$15.50 range.

 
BassNBrew said:
Down 14% on FMCI.  Doubled my position...but without much conviction.
Click to expand...
I did too.  Not in a huge position, and will give it a little time.  Agreed, I'm not feeling the greatest conviction either because of how overall markets are acting.  

 
sporthenry said:
I'd say that relief rally isn't great. Given the move has been to push in a-h, was expecting them to try to recapture 3070 or 3100. Guess there are two sides to each market but I'd be surprised to just see a 1% move. Just not sure which way it's going to go. We're essentially at the 1% move in AF. I just can't see it staying within the 2970-3070 channel. 
Click to expand...
Nice open but the markets look destined to end red. This is a case where flattening the curve is not great.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
TVIX steadily climbing.  I'm pretty worried about a rug pull today.
Click to expand...
Todem scared me into selling 2/3s of my shares early. I've almost bought them all back. At a premium. That stupid sell/buy cost me about 5k. Not pointing fingers or blaming, I was the one pulling the trigger. I think it hits 250 this afternoon. Friday afternoon tend to be scared money

 
stbugs said:
@beef I think it was you who mentioned FMCI. They announced their agreement to merge with Tatooed Chef. Any thoughts? The market cap they mentioned in the article is about 50% above the current price. How does that work? I bought a little but I’m not sure in the non-bounce is due to the shock of yesterday (early gains being trimmed). Is this a wait until the merger happens play? Just some fun money.
Click to expand...
beef said:
I was tailing @caustic on this one.    

The FMCI shares should convert to the new IPO ticker.  Will have to look into that more to see if it will be 1-1.  My plan is to hold until this merger is final and the IPO is live. 

And good point @McBokonon.  It was Impossible.
Click to expand...
I'm a little disappointed, but it seems like a solid company so I'll be holding. My cost basis had drifted up to $13 but I added more in the $11s today.

I wasn't expecting Impossible, but when they said they were acquiring a "plant-based food company," that made me think they were targeting a company that made vegan substitutes for meat, eggs, dairy products, etc. Instead, it looks like Tatooed Chef mostly does veggie bowls and gluten-free stuff. I think that's much less exciting for investors. 

It looks like FMCI shareholders will retain 35% of the company, so the share price will be diluted as the other shares gradually come to market. That's actually not a terrible deal though, since recent SPACs like DEAC/DKNG and VTIQ/NKLA had much lower retention rates (5-10%). 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sold my 50 Tap for a meager profit, but now I can actually drink some good stuff for free this weekend. I'm not trusting this close today...

 
pecorino said:
Nice open but the markets look destined to end red. This is a case where flattening the curve is not great.
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s a terrible chart. Just went red for the day. Destroying technicals. Going to be fascinating how this plays out. I’m just staying patient until opex unless we get 5%+ moves either way. 

 
FMCI article: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/a-funny-thing-happened-on-the-way-to-the-forum-merger-a-great-opportunity-15347299

So often we talk about expectations versus reality. The market will build one thing in its head and if it doesn't happen, then the reactions can be volatile. This includes both downside and upside.

The recent employment numbers are a great example of this. Headlines built up expectations for a huge number of job losses. That happened, but the expectations were far worse than the reality, so much so that stocks reacted as if the news were "good."

On the flipside, we're seeing Friday what happens when investors build up unrealistic expectations in SPAC name Forum Merger II Corp.  (FMCI) . The rumor mill had Impossible Burger as a potential company target. Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre and I talked about how it was virtually impossible for a SPAC of this size to do this.

Folks forget that by November 2019 Impossible Burger had already raised $777 million in the private markets. It had a name, venture backing, and celebrity endorsements. At that time, it was also looking to raise around $300 million to $400 million dollars at a valuation between $3 billion to $5 billion.

Forum was floating around $200 million cash, so it would have needed a PIPE, and FMCI shareholders would have received virtually nothing in the new company based on its stock price and needed outside numbers to double up the cash.

Still, that's what speculators decided would happen. Finally, a publicly traded company to compete with Beyond Meat (BYND) . Rather than a direct competitor, however, FMCI is acquiring a complement to Beyond Meat in the plant-based food category.

Friday morning FMCI announced it would be purchasing Tattooed Chef and rolling it out on the Nasdaq. The immediate comparison, of course, will be to the valuation of Beyond Meat. That makes sense in some regards, but if that's the case, the selloff Friday is something I see as puzzling and an opportunity.

I believe the shares are being sold down on disappointment versus the expectations. Warrants are being sold down even harder because the aggressive money, the speculators, chased the leverage. Slingshot up, slingshot down.

I do think worries about the growth numbers are the other detractor here. Beyond Meat just put up a 141% year-over-year revenue growth number in first-quarter 2020 compared to 2019. Tattooed Chef is "only" growing at a 67% compound annual growth rate from 2018 thru projected end of 2021.

I would understand that if its valuation metrics were in the same ballpark, but Beyond Meat with its likely $400 million in sales this year, comes with an enterprise value over $8 billion. FMCI's new company is expected to have revenue around $150 million in 2020 with an enterprise value around $480 million. One of those is a 20x multiple while the other is just above 3x. Also, the Tattooed Chef is expected to have an adjusted EBITDA position in 2020 at $17 million with that number nearly doubling to $31 million by 2021.

The aim here is the frozen food category, a $55 billion market, rather than a direct competition with meat. Tattooed Chef's signature products include ready-to-cook bowls, zucchini spirals, riced cauliflower, acai and smoothie bowls, and cauliflower pizza crusts. It already sits inside Costco (COST) , Sam's Club, and Walmart (WMT) .

I don't envision the same fight to get consumers on board for a trial. Meat lovers are notoriously defensive of their meat, but I don't see the same thing happening with frozen foods.

While I land firmly on the meat side of the world, I can't overlook the strong growth we've seen in the plant-based category. What I thought was a fad has developed into a trend.

Despite the nasty selloff Friday, I'm a buyer of both the stock and the warrants with a longer-term view in mind. It's impossible to call the bottom as speculators rotate out and investors rotate into this name, but the upside potential exists. Even though it's in three big club store names, the product isn't in many of the regional or large grocers.

Based on the action I'm seeing Friday, this type of volume and volume price movement will likely wipe the speculators clean of the stock within the day. While traditional packaged food companies trade at multiples around 2x sales, they don't have this kind of growth rate. Even at half Beyond Meat's growth rate and discounting for a potentially smaller margined business, I would expect this to trade closer to an enterprise value of $1 billion based on 2021 numbers.

For today, disappointment and momentum has taken over, but there's a real story here and one with potential. I believe we'll see this stock trading in the low to mid $20s over the next six to 12 months, so I'm accumulating both stock and warrants here aggressively.
Click to expand...
 
Under 3,000. May be better positioned than yesterday since we flirted with it all day. But seems like thing could drop in a hurry. 
 

ETA: IWM still green on the day. Interesting divergence. Sold off harder yesterday but has rallied a lot lately. QQQs leading the charge so guess it’s a rally out of tech or fund raising. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
does the wash sale apply only to exact same ticker or does it also apply to similar tickers? considering dumping my recently purchased IVV for a 6% loss to get the tax loss but then just buying vti or splg or something similar. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2025 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
77
Views
4K
Andrew74
Andrew74
Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
127
Views
8K
McBokonon
McBokonon
Wingnut
Pluribus TV show discussion thread
2
Replies
62
Views
1K
northern exposure
northern exposure

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 18 (members: 2, guests: 16)
Back
Top