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Stock Thread (44 Viewers)

What a crazy day. Due to a lot of the info in here my little nest egg has ballooned (thanks FBG smart dudes) so the 2% swings are bigger numbers. This is one of the wilder days I remember seeing. Could just be all the stuff I am in.

 
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Lot of head fakes today. Seems like a market makers kinda day. IWM just turned red so maybe that leads us down. This is bubbling up for a move and with opex next week, tread carefully. 

 
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does the wash sale apply only to exact same ticker or does it also apply to similar tickers? considering dumping my recently purchased IVV for a 6% loss to get the tax loss but then just buying vti or splg or something similar. 
Are they "substantially identical"? 

 
A few interesting IPOs today.

Vaxcyte - symbol PCVX - biotech vaccine company priced at $16 which was top of the expected range.  Bouncing around $21 right now before open.

The Azek Company - symbol AZEK - environmental outdoor living company.   Priced at $23 above expected $19-$21.  

Burning Rock Biotech - symbol BNR - biotech company focused in oncology.  Priced at $16.50 above $13.50-$15.50 range.
Wanted to follow up and say thanks for PCVX.  It's been good today.  :thumbup:  

Was at the dentist and couldn't track them all.  Glad I set a limit order on this one before it opened.

 
What is this "opex" coming next week?
What is Triple Witching? 

Triple witching is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and stock index option contracts all occurring on the same day. It happens four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Because three option classes expire all on the same day, it can cause increased trading volume and unusual price action in the underlying assets.
 

Junes open options were 20% higher than normal non-December expiry (which is usually larger just given year end). So put/call ratio is at abnormally low levels which means a lot of folks are long calls. I think there was quite a bit of selling of ITM calls yesterday.
 

There’s also the max pain theory that essentially market makers end up trading markets to their smallest amount of pain (I.e where options expiry costs them the least) and think that was something in the 280s/290s context. 
 

But just with the market so one sided bullish via calls, if they start selling, it could trigger more selling. 

 
I know nothing but another finish at ~3000 would be odd.  Which way is the market going to run in the last hour of trading?

 
My Yahoo chart shows TVIX as not trading from 10:55 to 1:02 Eastern. This is a Yahoo issue, right?

 
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I know nothing but another finish at ~3000 would be odd.  Which way is the market going to run in the last hour of trading?
I would have thought so but looks like we’re in for a day of chop. Anything between 3,000 and 3,070 likely doesn’t indicate anything. 

 
Weird day.   Seems like a confused market.  On a day after the market gives up 1800+ points—to start up over 800, give it all back and go negative , and then finish the day up 500.  If the market goes up again on Monday—I think I’m going to take some more profits and get my cash ready to put back in at lower levels.  Long term I’m bullish—but one thing that occurred to me last night was that even after the 1800 point drop—stocks still didn’t seem  cheap.  Honestly—coming into today—in general—seemed like the values on a ton of stocks seem really bloated and frothy—even for a long term bull like me.  Feels like we went from having stocks falling too low in March to basically rising  too high and too fast in May/June.   The levels that they are don’t seem to reflect the risks that are still in the market.  Covid is still the biggest market risk in my opinion—but the election is quietly becoming a bigger risk in my opinion as well.  On Bovada today—Biden is a slight favorite to win.  I personally think that as long as Trump doesn’t fall of the rails in the next few months that he probably will win—but that’s a big “if” and its far from a lock.  If Biden wins—you could see some undoing of the corporate tax cuts that Trump implemented.   If Biden ends up becoming a bigger favorite as the election grows closer—the volatility in the markets could very well rise .

 
LOL yeah I don't get it.  This was a best case scenario.  Still a bad scenario, but wth were they buying for if they didn't want the best case?
Unless that was Jefferies literally just pumping the markets AH. 250mn shares at $2.62 gets you almost $650mn. It may be some equity arb guys though playing the new issuance. I mean, there haven't been shares available to short in forever so maybe either more shares are available or something with HFs knowing they'll be able to buy them back. Same reason why equities go down after a secondary offering. 

 
Yeah but isn't the whole point of this thread to discuss stocks? So if you're not going to discuss stocks with us, why exactly are you here? Not trying to be rude, genuinely curious. 

I don't think anyone in this thread is on the wsb level and I would wager that most of us are doing exactly that (methodically investing in 401ks/403bs/etc) with 75-90% of our invested assets. What's wrong with trying to see how smart we are or if we can find an edge with what amounts to fun money? 
This has become a catch-all where people discuss specific stocks, the overall market, the economy, their portfolio performance, what they are going to name their boat when lionblood saves us all, and double reverse shooting unicorn chart formations. Since I can't discuss stocks in here, I check on some posts from posters who I respect, and I also use it as a gauge for sentiment.

Absolutely nothing wrong with playing with fun money, never said there was. Nothing wrong with gambling with your entire account balance for that matter, it's your money knock yourself out. Again, I was simply giving a few words of caution to what appeared to me to be an inexperienced investor.

 
OK I think I have this all correct but I want a sanity check on this.

Let's say I'm planning to buy NKLA or some other high IV stock to hold for the long-term, 5+ years.  With IV so high would it not make more sense to sell a waaaaay ITM put that I am sure to get assigned on rather than just buying the shares outright?

For instance NKLA trades at $64 right right now.  Buying 100 shares would cost $6400.

However a July 2nd $125 put currently pays a credit of $8000.  Obviously it's extremely likely that I will get assigned on that put because the share price won't exceed $125 by then (and if it does, free $8000 I guess from the credit).  So I get a credit of $8000 and on July 2nd I have to pay $12,500 for 100 shares which = $4500 debit or $45/share.

Am I missing something here?  If I'm looking to buy today it seems prudent to find the most lucrative way ITM put within the next few weeks to sell, where the gap between credit and share price is the narrowest, right?

 
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OK I think I have this all correct but I want a sanity check on this.

Let's say I'm planning to buy NKLA or some other high IV stock to hold for the long-term, 5+ years.  With IV so high would it not make more sense to sell a waaaaay ITM put that I am sure to get assigned on rather than just buying the shares outright?

For instance NKLA trades at $64 right right now.  Buying 100 shares would cost $6400.

However a July 2nd $125 put currently pays a credit of $8000.  Obviously it's extremely likely that I will get assigned on that put because the share price won't exceed $125 by then (and if it does, free $8000 I guess from the credit).  So I get a credit of $8000 and on July 2nd I have to pay $12,500 for 100 shares which = $4500 debit or $45/share.

Am I missing something here?  If I'm looking to buy today it seems prudent to find the most lucrative way ITM put within the next few weeks to sell, where the gap between credit and share price is the narrowest, right?
I don't think you are missing anything here. It appears to me that NKLA has a support level at 30 so it is absolutely possible that the share price goes to $30 even as soon as July. That means you'd buy 100 shares for $12500 but you've saved $8000 in premium meaning that you've netted a loss of $1500. That's better than buying now (around $63) and watching the price shoot down to $30 for a loss of $3300. Selling puts can be like placing a limit order to purchase 100 shares, except you do get the premium. It is a strategy that many of us in here use (e.g. Bossman, though he often does NOT want to own the stock). As I've said many times, it is a safer strategy than buying 100 shares outright. NKLA premiums are just so incredibly wonky that this illustrates an extreme example. [Full disclosure: I sold a July NKLA put myself with strike price of 30 for a premium of $600 last week. I do not want to own the stock and hope it stays above that level.]

 
pecorino said:
I don't think you are missing anything here. It appears to me that NKLA has a support level at 30 so it is absolutely possible that the share price goes to $30 even as soon as July. That means you'd buy 100 shares for $12500 but you've saved $8000 in premium meaning that you've netted a loss of $1500. That's better than buying now (around $63) and watching the price shoot down to $30 for a loss of $3300. Selling puts can be like placing a limit order to purchase 100 shares, except you do get the premium. It is a strategy that many of us in here use (e.g. Bossman, though he often does NOT want to own the stock). As I've said many times, it is a safer strategy than buying 100 shares outright. NKLA premiums are just so incredibly wonky that this illustrates an extreme example. [Full disclosure: I sold a July NKLA put myself with strike price of 30 for a premium of $600 last week. I do not want to own the stock and hope it stays above that level.]
So buying a warrant (NKLAW) at $30 (+11.50 exercise cost) means I am screwed right?

I am assuming so at this point, but trying to understand.

 
Zero market hour trades yesterday.  Everything I owned just moved at the open and then sat.  Missed an opportunity to move some JWN for a profit.  Should have dumped the BLMN pre-market in the 12s and bought back ( @ghostguy123 had a great read here).  Overall the last two days were good as I gained 2% back on the S&P500.  

 
Zero market hour trades yesterday.  Everything I owned just moved at the open and then sat.  Missed an opportunity to move some JWN for a profit.  Should have dumped the BLMN pre-market in the 12s and bought back ( @ghostguy123 had a great read here).  Overall the last two days were good as I gained 2% back on the S&P500.  
I was only kinda half joking because it seems every day BLMN has like a 7% swing around 10 or 11 oclock eastern time.  

I didnt take advantage of it yesterday because EVERYTHING dropped right around the same time.  

 
I'm not a day trader.  I will buy something and let it ride.  Almost all of my 401(k), roths IRAs, and kids 529s are in index funds.  I have $70k in cash that is earning a pathetic 1% from my bank (already maxed Roths for the year).  I'd like to earn something more.  I'm tolerant of some risk.

Thoughts on potential investments?  I know this is probably the wrong thread.  Only debt is my mortgage which has 150k left on it.

 
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I'm not a day trader.  I will buy something and let it ride.  Almost all of my 401(k), roths IRAs, and kids 529s are in index funds.  I have $70k in cash that is earning a pathetic 1% from my bank (already maxed Roths for the year).  I'd like to earn something more.  I'm tolerant of some risk.

Thoughts on potential investments?  I know this is probably the wrong thread.  Only debt is my mortgage which has 150k left on it.
Blue chips that pay dividends that are trading well below highs

 
My son just placed an order for 2 shares of Disney stock. Hopefully it fills Monday morning. Pretty excited to see his enthusiasm this morning. 

 
Blue chips that pay dividends that are trading well below highs
Are these possibly some of the ones you are talking about?

DFS, PM, T, PFE, JPM.....( edit, XOM also I think)

I wanted to turn my Roth into a set it and forget it type of account with dividends, and from what I recall these were some of the companies discussed.

Plus from what I can tell these companies are a a decent percentage off their 52 week highs.

 
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I'm not a day trader.  I will buy something and let it ride.  Almost all of my 401(k), roths IRAs, and kids 529s are in index funds.  I have $70k in cash that is earning a pathetic 1% from my bank (already maxed Roths for the year).  I'd like to earn something more.  I'm tolerant of some risk.

Thoughts on potential investments?  I know this is probably the wrong thread.  Only debt is my mortgage which has 150k left on it.
Blue chips that pay dividends that are trading well below highs
Alteratives could be indexes that hold a lot of dividend producing stocks that are well off all time highs. That way you still get diversification over single name risk. XLE and KBE for example.

 
SCHD is another one, but make sure you check with your tax guy on how this will impact you if this is going to just be a brokerage account.

ETA: Actually, I don’t love the top 10 holdings in SCHD now that I look at it. Rest of the portfolio might be better.

 
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I'm not a day trader.  I will buy something and let it ride.  Almost all of my 401(k), roths IRAs, and kids 529s are in index funds.  I have $70k in cash that is earning a pathetic 1% from my bank (already maxed Roths for the year).  I'd like to earn something more.  I'm tolerant of some risk.

Thoughts on potential investments?  I know this is probably the wrong thread.  Only debt is my mortgage which has 150k left on it.
You're already "investing", just do more of that. If you instead want to gamble, buy whatever suggestions you see here. 

 
Basically means he will be getting shares at a $41.50 cost basis but doesn't get them until early July.

I see support long before $30 personally.  It has bounced right off $60 repeatedly over the last few days.  It already had its gap down after the gap up and looks to have settled around a new core.  A lot of similarities to our favorite CYDY, which gapped from $1 to $3 then settled around $2, then gapped from $2 to $4 and has now settled around $3.  NKLA ran from $30 to $90 and has now settled back half way in between.

Obviously super volatile and anything can happen (huge IV proves that).  Consumer preorders start in 2 weeks as well so who knows what that will do.

ETA: cydy and nkla hourly charts

CYDY

NKLA

 
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You're already "investing", just do more of that. If you instead want to gamble, buy whatever suggestions you see here. 
Actually you gambled keeping your money in the stock market, instead of selling before the obvious crash.

You were lucky they printed trillions of dollars, or you'd still be way down. I took my money out before the crash, bought back near the bottom and im over 70 percent up on my portfolio, and none of that is luck.

 
Actually you gambled keeping your money in the stock market, instead of selling before the obvious crash.

You were lucky they printed trillions of dollars, or you'd still be way down. I took my money out before the crash, bought back near the bottom and im over 70 percent up on my portfolio, and none of that is luck.
Congrats man.  That's an awesome job.

 
I'm not a day trader.  I will buy something and let it ride.  Almost all of my 401(k), roths IRAs, and kids 529s are in index funds.  I have $70k in cash that is earning a pathetic 1% from my bank (already maxed Roths for the year).  I'd like to earn something more.  I'm tolerant of some risk.

Thoughts on potential investments?  I know this is probably the wrong thread.  Only debt is my mortgage which has 150k left on it.
I love my rainy day fund (much smaller than your's - about $25K), but it earns only 1.30% interest. I'm not a day trader, but in 2020, have invested at least 20K into stocks. My timing was bad - probably dropped at least 10K in January/February before the market meltdown, but have been buying cheaper prices since. I do like owning stable stocks for companies that should continue growing and there are so many that I would love to get in on, but haven't (like Apple). Still on the fence on Zoom, but have missed the boat on that one. Over time, I have been buying into Disney, Boeing, United, Goldman, Target and Starbucks primarily - I don't really care about the short-term, but I think long-term, I'm doing good things. I suggest you follow my lead and this will also become an addition. I remember, back in January, how difficult it was for me to spend around $750 dollars on 5 DIS shares. Now, I look back and wonder why I never got involved. 401K is all Roth now for the last 9 months, that has pretty much made up the hole from early this year as well. I'm not an expert by any means, but this is the path I have taken.

 
I mean most dividend ETFs won't be hugely risky but still equity risk. I do like the dividend play given where bond yields are. Think the S&P yield over 10-year is at or near record highs so will likely remain a bid for dividend yield. I'd just look for an ETF full of blue chips with decent yields. I wouldn't pick individual stocks unless you're going to do 20+ so just ETF it. While JPM and XOM are blue chip companies, putting a high % in either will unnecessarily expose you to idiosyncratic things like the price of oil or interest rates. So I'd just run a screen for a dividend ETF, find something with a good yield but nothing super crazy, a 10% dividend yield isn't sustainable so you're either looking at a dividend cut or stock appreciation. Think the S&P yield is ~2%. Anything over 5% would probably be risky. Something below 2% like VIG probably has more equity upside although I'm not sure what dividend growth is going to look like in the future. 

I'd also just recommend legging into the trade. Depending on time frame, risk tolerance and focus, you can cut it up into 12-24 slices and DCA into it. Don't think it's necessarily the best time to dive head first into the market. If things keep going up, you may miss a little upside but if things sell-off, you'll have more money to deploy and can accelerate your DCA. After the recent sell-off, things don't look as one sided but 10% of ATHs isn't the most appealing entry point to me. Although folks here can argue why we're going to blow through ATHs. 

 
SCHD is another one, but make sure you check with your tax guy on how this will impact you if this is going to just be a brokerage account.

ETA: Actually, I don’t love the top 10 holdings in SCHD now that I look at it. Rest of the portfolio might be better.
I had posted about this a couple days ago and @Todem seemed intrigued and mentioned he was going to look into holdings 

 
You're already "investing", just do more of that. If you instead want to gamble, buy whatever suggestions you see here. 
Don't feel bad GB, I'd probably also be pissy if I had missed two obvious opportunities for huge gains but selling before the dip then buy everything back on sale.

 
Actually you gambled keeping your money in the stock market, instead of selling before the obvious crash.

You were lucky they printed trillions of dollars, or you'd still be way down. I took my money out before the crash, bought back near the bottom and im over 70 percent up on my portfolio, and none of that is luck.
Csb.How about the other x times you pulled your $ out of the market to avoid the "obvious crash" that didn't come and missed out on huge run-ups?

This thinking always ends up destroying portfolios in the end. Only the successes are trapped about. The whiffs are conveniently forgotten or intentionally omitted from stories and they are far more costly than the rare successes.

But congrats on hitting that inside straight on the river! 

 
Don't feel bad GB, I'd probably also be pissy if I had missed two obvious opportunities for huge gains but selling before the dip then buy everything back on sale.
In killing it, GB. Not sure what you mean? I'm at all time highs with solid, smart investing strategies. Not WSB-level speculation. 

 
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Csb.How about the other x times you pulled your $ out of the market to avoid the "obvious crash" that didn't come and missed out on huge run-ups?

This thinking always ends up destroying portfolios in the end. Only the successes are trapped about. The whiffs are conveniently forgotten or intentionally omitted from stories and they are far more costly than the rare successes.

But congrats on hitting that inside straight on the river! 
Anyone paying attention knew covid 19 was the real deal, and it was going to rock the markets.

 

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