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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

chet said:
Here are some upcoming dates.  CYDY announced that they were ending the Mild-moderate trial on June 15.  It was overenrolled and there are 85-90 patients.  Since it has a 14-day endpoint, today (June 29) is the last day to collect patient samples.  Those will be analyzed, data will be compiled and a package will be sent to the FDA--my guess is around the middle of July.   Who knows how long the FDA will take .

They are also submitting interim data on 51-patients on a similar timeframe.

Someone asked about the Dr. Patterson's paper.  It's being peer reviewed.  Again, who knows how long.
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Wonder if timing of the publication of the paper will be tied in with the July data set sent to the FDA as a proof of concept to support the paper's conclusion.

 
Moonlight said:
Wonder if timing of the publication of the paper will be tied in with the July data set sent to the FDA as a proof of concept to support the paper's conclusion.
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I don't have the impression they have any control over the timing of the peer review process. It just kind of is whatever it ends up being.

 
So can we have a serious semi non shtick conversation about what this company is worth with 1. A successful second trial and 2. A FDA approval?

its a 4B company right now based on reasonable (we hope) speculation.  
 

If everything we have read comes to fruition and we get a successful announcement on the data trials 10-15B?

if then we get a FDA approval and trump puts it in a speech?  30-40B? 
 

I know we were kidding about the millionaire number but I want to be realistic here

 
djmich said:
Yah, I little longer than I hypothesized.  Do you know if it is common practice to share the trial results sent to the FDA publicly prior to the FDA evaluating?
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Yes. Usually the company announced the results of its various trials and the outcome (met or did not meet the primary endpoint) upon which they send it to the FDA if it met the endpoint. Given the time sensitivity of all this, COVID drugs are likely to be on warp speed throughout the whole process and I don't know enough about the intricacies. 

But for instance, Remdesevir is not approved by the FDA. They officially announced results on phase 3 trial on June 1 but if you remember, Stat leaked info from Chicago study on April 16th but they didn't announce final results until June 1st. There was the NIAID study in between (which I believe was separate from the Chicago data). Regardless, this stuff can and will leak. The optimist (market cynic) in me thinks folks at these hospitals must be talking and it's getting into the market. Otherwise, we're all gambling here. I just didn't know if there was a PDUFA date or something from the FDA. The company can announce their results whenever they want really and release whatever they want. That is why folks accused GILD or MRNA of selectively releasing data. So if the data is in between, the company will likely just release the positive stuff. That is where we need folks smarter than me to tell us what it means. So there is a chance where it is proven effective but it's not a cure-all (i.e. remdesevir) in which case, the stock could go either way. 

 
The Ref said:
So can we have a serious semi non shtick conversation about what this company is worth with 1. A successful second trial and 2. A FDA approval?

its a 4B company right now based on reasonable (we hope) speculation.  
 

If everything we have read comes to fruition and we get a successful announcement on the data trials 10-15B?

if then we get a FDA approval and trump puts it in a speech?  30-40B? 
 

I know we were kidding about the millionaire number but I want to be realistic here
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Gilead's market cap increased by ~15BB after Stat News released a story about a video showing Chicago area doctors and nurses casually discussing redeliver and saying that they thought it worked.  That was after the close and after market trading.  Someone thought that a rumor that the drug was effective was worth $15BB.

For CYDY, $15BB translates to ~$22 / share (you have to assume the fully diluted share count is close to 700MM because their warrants are so deep in the money).

Another way to approach it is from revenue assumptions.  CYDY will have 1.5MM vials of drug delivered in 2020.  That's 750K doses and at $1200/dose, that's $900MM in revenue before royalties or distribution.  In 2021, they've ordered 5MM vials which is worth $3BB in revenue.  Small pharma often trades at 10x revenue.

 
chet said:
Gilead's market cap increased by ~15BB after Stat News released a story about a video showing Chicago area doctors and nurses casually discussing redeliver and saying that they thought it worked.  That was after the close and after market trading.  Someone thought that a rumor that the drug was effective was worth $15BB.

For CYDY, $15BB translates to ~$22 / share (you have to assume the fully diluted share count is close to 700MM because their warrants are so deep in the money).

Another way to approach it is from revenue assumptions.  CYDY will have 1.5MM vials of drug delivered in 2020.  That's 750K doses and at $1200/dose, that's $900MM in revenue before royalties or distribution.  In 2021, they've ordered 5MM vials which is worth $3BB in revenue.  Small pharma often trades at 10x revenue.
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I'll give them 1500for a vial  right now.  I'd like it in my first aid kit

 
pecorino said:
Wow, good catch. I saw the post and assumed it was one or two contracts. 100 contracts does not sound right unless he just cashed in his epic CYDY profit and is going for the jugular.
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Options are for usually for 100 contracts so he only bought one put. 

 
Pretty soon I'm going to be violating my rule of no more than 5% of the portfolio in any one company.

:oldunsure:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wanted to buy 1500 more shaers at TD

They only let me do limit bids for OTC

I had to up my limit FIVE times before finally filling it at 8.75

Freaking rocketship

 
-OZ- said:
Pretty soon I'm going to be violating my rule of no more than 5% of the portfolio in any one stock. 

:oldunsure:
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I'll take some of that CYDY off your hands.  My Roth IRA is 75% in CYDY (and I'm glad it is).  Of course, that isn't my "entire" investment portfolio though.

 
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