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Stock Thread (38 Viewers)

COST seems like the only demonstrably correct play I've made in the last 6 weeks. Otherwise, I could have just had one hell of a great weekend in Vegas.

 
So...we thinking market correcting itself, or beginning of a bear run? Leaning the latter, the dips are becoming significant and steady.

 
Wow...I winder what sector diff suggest next month....bonds looking good right now...I would have assumed this pull back would have came in Feb when my stock options vest...well at least I have that going for me...

 
Glad the only thing I'm holding right now is sector rotation, but still getting hit hard there too :kicksrock:

7% slide in 10 trading days, talk about market volatility right now.

ETA: 401k getting slaughtered, but I don't follow that as closely.

 
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I think the Ebola crap is currently tipping a precariously balanced collective confidence in the market to the negative side.

 
I've been quiet a long time on the thread. I sold a good bit of stuff back at the end of last year once the market rebounded from the government shutdown. I felt like it was overvalued. Hard pill to swallow watching the run up. However, we aren't too far from those levels now. To put in perspective, the S&P was around 1,700 a year ago today. Even with this correction, it stands at 1,827 as I'm typing this. That's almost 8% up in a year. The volatility makes it feel much worse than it has been so far. Now how much further it goes is the real question.

 
lod01 said:
We've blown thru 10% down on all indices. That's good enough for me.
Click to expand...
The Dow is roughly 300 points away from 10% off of the top (17,350) which would be 15,615.

The S&P is only 15 points away from 10% off of the top (2,019) which would be 1,817.

The Nasdaq has surpassed 10% which was 4,610. I still think of all the key indexes, Nasdaq has the most froth built in and could fall harder than others.

 
Serious reversal today. Don't know if this an opportunity to get out with a smaller loss on my S&P index? Feels like the trend is certainly negative right now, but who knows...

 
I hate that so many people have predicted a 10% correction and we've gotten there very quickly. It makes me think that it will be more severe than that.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Serious reversal today. Don't know if this an opportunity to get out with a smaller loss on my S&P index? Feels like the trend is certainly negative right now, but who knows...
Click to expand...
First of all:

Timing the market based off of x% drop from a high is technical analysis for housewives, taxi drivers and landscapers. Follow the trend.

We are certainly oversold on multiple time frames-so this is as good a place as any for a bounce. It's possible the bounce will be strong.

I say this all the time: "It's impossible to predict the future." But it is more than possible to prepare for it. We have periods in the market when it is important to pay more attention to the positions you hold and prepare for action. Last post I made I was trying to get that point across.

Why and at what price would you sell a position? Why and at what price would you buy a new position or add to a position? Best to have that thought through by the time it gets there.

 
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Serious reversal today. Don't know if this an opportunity to get out with a smaller loss on my S&P index? Feels like the trend is certainly negative right now, but who knows...
Click to expand...
First of all:

Timing the market based off of x% drop from a high is technical analysis for housewives, taxi drivers and landscapers. Follow the trend.

We are certainly oversold on multiple time frames-so this is as good a place as any for a bounce. It's possible the bounce will be strong.

I say this all the time: "It's impossible to predict the future." But it is more than possible to prepare for it. We have periods in the market when it is important to pay more attention to the positions you hold and prepare for action. Last post I made I was trying to get that point across.

Why and at what price would you sell a position? Why and at what price would you buy a new position or add to a position? Best to have that thought through by the time it gets there.
Click to expand...
Thanks Siff... Curious from a chartist standpoint what the charts are saying? I assume they have gone into a bear trend?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Serious reversal today. Don't know if this an opportunity to get out with a smaller loss on my S&P index? Feels like the trend is certainly negative right now, but who knows...
Click to expand...
First of all:

Timing the market based off of x% drop from a high is technical analysis for housewives, taxi drivers and landscapers. Follow the trend.

We are certainly oversold on multiple time frames-so this is as good a place as any for a bounce. It's possible the bounce will be strong.

I say this all the time: "It's impossible to predict the future." But it is more than possible to prepare for it. We have periods in the market when it is important to pay more attention to the positions you hold and prepare for action. Last post I made I was trying to get that point across.

Why and at what price would you sell a position? Why and at what price would you buy a new position or add to a position? Best to have that thought through by the time it gets there.
Click to expand...
Thanks Siff... Curious from a chartist standpoint what the charts are saying? I assume they have gone into a bear trend?
Click to expand...
Do you not get the "twitted" tweets: "Of the 6 ETFs in the SH Monthly Sector rotation - only 1 (IEF - Bonds) is in a confirmed bull trend





8:45 AM - 9 Oct 2014
?

 
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
siffoin said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Serious reversal today. Don't know if this an opportunity to get out with a smaller loss on my S&P index? Feels like the trend is certainly negative right now, but who knows...
Click to expand...
First of all:

Timing the market based off of x% drop from a high is technical analysis for housewives, taxi drivers and landscapers. Follow the trend.

We are certainly oversold on multiple time frames-so this is as good a place as any for a bounce. It's possible the bounce will be strong.

I say this all the time: "It's impossible to predict the future." But it is more than possible to prepare for it. We have periods in the market when it is important to pay more attention to the positions you hold and prepare for action. Last post I made I was trying to get that point across.

Why and at what price would you sell a position? Why and at what price would you buy a new position or add to a position? Best to have that thought through by the time it gets there.
Click to expand...
Thanks Siff... Curious from a chartist standpoint what the charts are saying? I assume they have gone into a bear trend?
Click to expand...
Do you not get the "twitted" tweets: "Of the 6 ETFs in the SH Monthly Sector rotation - only 1 (IEF - Bonds) is in a confirmed bull trend





8:45 AM - 9 Oct 2014
?
Click to expand...
Sorry Siff, I don't really use twitter and didn't see that... I usually just view your tweets on steelhedge.com which I was actually on earlier today, but it looks like they only go back the last few days...

 
TSLA down almost 3.5% after hours too... Investors are prob getting ahead, maybe they realize this company is at least a decade away from doing anything close to justifying the valuation and they feel a NFLX like reaction could occur during earnings.

 
sbonomo said:
St. Louis Bob said:
fantasycurse42 said:
humpback said:
:shock: NFLX.
Click to expand...
wow
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
are they reporting today?
Click to expand...
It's the news that HBO is getting in the game.

It's a domino that they cannot afford to take. HBO is setting the precedent that NFLX can't hope to match. Showtime is already saying they are working on something too.

Netflix doesn't have enough original programming to hold their audience against an onslaught of media companies getting into streaming. They just can't. It was always a bridge to a TVoIP solution for our cable programming. Today you see the beginning of the end of Netflix. Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.

 
culdeus said:
Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.
Click to expand...
I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately :kicksrock:

But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.

They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
culdeus said:
Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.
Click to expand...
I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately :kicksrock:

But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.

They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.
Click to expand...
They will not exist in a few years. Period.

They rely on the studios to feed them movies. First HBO starts this streaming, then the studios realize they can just stream the stuff themselves and undercut HBO on everything but their originals. Studios charge higher rates, the ISPS (controlled by the studios) charge higher rates to pass through, plus competition from networks and other outlets content to give away programming for free, and boom. It's over. HBO was way out in front of this trend a decade ago with original stuff. Now, it's payday.

Think blockbuster. Because that's where they will be sharing a place with soon enough.

 
culdeus said:
fantasycurse42 said:
culdeus said:
Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.
Click to expand...
I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately :kicksrock:

But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.

They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.
Click to expand...
They will not exist in a few years. Period.

They rely on the studios to feed them movies. First HBO starts this streaming, then the studios realize they can just stream the stuff themselves and undercut HBO on everything but their originals. Studios charge higher rates, the ISPS (controlled by the studios) charge higher rates to pass through, plus competition from networks and other outlets content to give away programming for free, and boom. It's over. HBO was way out in front of this trend a decade ago with original stuff. Now, it's payday.

Think blockbuster. Because that's where they will be sharing a place with soon enough.
Click to expand...
For a few sentences that must have been pretty compelling as the thought of shorting entered my head immediately after reading it.

I would be too scared though, getting caught on the wrong side of this is devastating. I've actually posted numerous times in the last few months about how I would love to short Tesla (although I think their future is different than what you outline for NFLX) just due to an insane valuation right now. But my feelings there are the same as this one and the end result of getting caught on the wrong side is devastation.

 
One of HBO's proposed models is to stream through a 3rd party service such as AMZN or NFLX or to do it themselves. I would think that the existing relationship with AMZN gives them a leg up in that respect. On that note, if HBO were to do that, I would think the upside for AMZN is that it may grease the slide for other cable providers that want to follow.

Full disclosure - I have existing affiliations and holdings in AMZN but I am not privy to nor do I have any knowledge of anything within this particular space.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
culdeus said:
fantasycurse42 said:
culdeus said:
Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.
Click to expand...
I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately :kicksrock:

But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.

They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.
Click to expand...
They will not exist in a few years. Period.

They rely on the studios to feed them movies. First HBO starts this streaming, then the studios realize they can just stream the stuff themselves and undercut HBO on everything but their originals. Studios charge higher rates, the ISPS (controlled by the studios) charge higher rates to pass through, plus competition from networks and other outlets content to give away programming for free, and boom. It's over. HBO was way out in front of this trend a decade ago with original stuff. Now, it's payday.

Think blockbuster. Because that's where they will be sharing a place with soon enough.
Click to expand...
For a few sentences that must have been pretty compelling as the thought of shorting entered my head immediately after reading it.

I would be too scared though, getting caught on the wrong side of this is devastating. I've actually posted numerous times in the last few months about how I would love to short Tesla (although I think their future is different than what you outline for NFLX) just due to an insane valuation right now. But my feelings there are the same as this one and the end result of getting caught on the wrong side is devastation.
Click to expand...
why don't you buy a put then?

 
I wouldn't count Netflix out just yet. Their original content has been a hit and it's growing, their catalog of tv shows is huge, and they have a head start on everyone. If HBO, Showtime, Sony, etc start their own streaming services, am I going to have to pay for each one? HBO already said their streaming wouldn't be cheaper than adding them to a cable package. What's the incentive for the stream then?

I'd be the exec's at Netflix anticipated this kind of move by a studio and have plans to counter.

 
Walking Boot said:
Drifter said:
One of HBO's proposed models is to stream through a 3rd party service such as AMZN or NFLX or to do it themselves. I would think that the existing relationship with AMZN gives them a leg up in that respect. On that note, if HBO were to do that, I would think the upside for AMZN is that it may grease the slide for other cable providers that want to follow.

Full disclosure - I have existing affiliations and holdings in AMZN but I am not privy to nor do I have any knowledge of anything within this particular space.
Click to expand...
Aren't Amazon and Netflix the same thing? I mean, isn't the backbone of the netflix stream built upon the Amazon bandwidth? Or am I thinking of an old deal or some other arrangement?
Click to expand...
Yes, NFLX is an Amazon AWS (Cloud) customer to host their content but they are not the same in any other aspect.

 
James Daulton said:
I wouldn't count Netflix out just yet. Their original content has been a hit and it's growing, their catalog of tv shows is huge, and they have a head start on everyone. If HBO, Showtime, Sony, etc start their own streaming services, am I going to have to pay for each one? HBO already said their streaming wouldn't be cheaper than adding them to a cable package. What's the incentive for the stream then?

I'd be the exec's at Netflix anticipated this kind of move by a studio and have plans to counter.
Click to expand...
Cord cutters. Just to get HBO through cable it would cost you $50ish a month. It gets people like me, who pirate their stuff now, to sign up for their online service which I absolutely will.

 
Cliff Clavin said:
James Daulton said:
I wouldn't count Netflix out just yet. Their original content has been a hit and it's growing, their catalog of tv shows is huge, and they have a head start on everyone. If HBO, Showtime, Sony, etc start their own streaming services, am I going to have to pay for each one? HBO already said their streaming wouldn't be cheaper than adding them to a cable package. What's the incentive for the stream then?

I'd be the exec's at Netflix anticipated this kind of move by a studio and have plans to counter.
Click to expand...
Cord cutters. Just to get HBO through cable it would cost you $50ish a month. It gets people like me, who pirate their stuff now, to sign up for their online service which I absolutely will.
Click to expand...
$50 a month? Yikes....maybe $15 here in Va.

 
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