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Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.
:goodposting:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.
:goodposting:
oh ####, you guys were right.. i'm losing boatloads today.. can't decide whether to accept the profit i've made and move on, or to buy more.

 
I would expect there to be multiple events such as this until you see the real recovery. Take your profits, wait for the next one, rinse and repeat.

 
Heard two interesting things on Bloomberg this morning.

1. Normalizing Oil vs NG by comparing the cost per BTU shows that NG is currently trading at an Oil equivalent BTU of $20/barrel. The speculation might be that is the true bottom for oil. Personally, I don't believe that to be true, at least in the short term, because of the more established oil infrastructure, but interstesting, nonetheless.

2. Same guy said that comparing the "value" of Emerging Markets vs the S&P, the Emerging Markets are currently undervalued by 50%. He didn't suggest buying but that sector should be watched and jumped all over if it shows any bullish momentum.

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?
Residential real estate in Williston and surrounding.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/average-rent-williston-n-tops-costs-nyc-article-1.1617187

If production is shut down, these prices will fall by gigantic amounts, pennies on the dollars.

At some point down the road, prices will stabilize and head north again, when they do, Williston oil will be mined again.

Just a thought.

 
Huge oil surplus, production still outpacing demand. If oil pops again tomorrow, like today, I'm making a day trade on a one day short EOD tomorrow for Monday.

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?
Residential real estate in Williston and surrounding.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/average-rent-williston-n-tops-costs-nyc-article-1.1617187

If production is shut down, these prices will fall by gigantic amounts, pennies on the dollars.

At some point down the road, prices will stabilize and head north again, when they do, Williston oil will be mined again.

Just a thought.
The world will be a much better place when we don't instinctively plan to make our fortunes off the financial ruin of an individual or family. Don't be a carpet bagger profiting by taking someone else's home. Leave that to the Goldman's of the world.

Far more "moral" to look towards other "industries" in the Shale Boom (bust) areas to make your fortune. Liquor stores and strip clubs would be examples that come to mind.

 
Made a quick buck buying and selling FCX. Bought 1800 shares of Groupon today before their earnings announcement next week. Large short float. Hoping for a squeeze :)

 
Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.
I agree with this...

I should point out, I was wildly incorrect last week though, so we can assume oil is on the way to $500.
keep posting this drivel, every time you post i make another $100
Lol

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?
Residential real estate in Williston and surrounding.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/average-rent-williston-n-tops-costs-nyc-article-1.1617187

If production is shut down, these prices will fall by gigantic amounts, pennies on the dollars.

At some point down the road, prices will stabilize and head north again, when they do, Williston oil will be mined again.

Just a thought.
The world will be a much better place when we don't instinctively plan to make our fortunes off the financial ruin of an individual or family. Don't be a carpet bagger profiting by taking someone else's home. Leave that to the Goldman's of the world.

Far more "moral" to look towards other "industries" in the Shale Boom (bust) areas to make your fortune. Liquor stores and strip clubs would be examples that come to mind.
Best post ever and you've made a lot of great posts.

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?
Residential real estate in Williston and surrounding.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/average-rent-williston-n-tops-costs-nyc-article-1.1617187

If production is shut down, these prices will fall by gigantic amounts, pennies on the dollars.

At some point down the road, prices will stabilize and head north again, when they do, Williston oil will be mined again.

Just a thought.
The world will be a much better place when we don't instinctively plan to make our fortunes off the financial ruin of an individual or family. Don't be a carpet bagger profiting by taking someone else's home. Leave that to the Goldman's of the world.

Far more "moral" to look towards other "industries" in the Shale Boom (bust) areas to make your fortune. Liquor stores and strip clubs would be examples that come to mind.
Best post ever and you've made a lot of great posts.
I agree with the premise of the post, however the situation in Williston is filled with individuals who have bought out huge chunks of land as the oil boom there has gone on. I wouldn't look at this as banking off of the unfortunate.

More so, making money off of the speculators who have bought properties, charged gigantic rents, and there investments are about to tank.

 
Just as a note I just waded in with the largest set of purchases I have made - had a 35% cash position to do something with. Mostly free ETFs consisting of 33% domestic equity, 22% international equity, 35% bonds (long, intermediate, foreign, and a sprinkle of preferred stock), and 10% real estate. Boring, but a good allocation of funds to spread risk around. Timing these things is maddening, so I just closed my eyes and pressed the buy button, a lot.

So, basically, this is a Hindenburg type omen - the market is guaranteed for a crash, starting about now.

 
I'm going to be making a regular blog post that will essentially be charts of many different stock sectors. There's not any commentary but perhaps they will be useful and the more you study them the more useful they will be. My hope is to post this 1x end of the week - every week and a more lengthy post 1x per month at the end of the month.

Feedback is always helpful.

http://steelhedge.com/2015/02/06/february-6-2015-weekly-update/

 
I'm going to be making a regular blog post that will essentially be charts of many different stock sectors. There's not any commentary but perhaps they will be useful and the more you study them the more useful they will be. My hope is to post this 1x end of the week - every week and a more lengthy post 1x per month at the end of the month.

Feedback is always helpful.

http://steelhedge.com/2015/02/06/february-6-2015-weekly-update/
sounds good to me. now if only i knew how to read charts :kicksrock:

 
I'm going to be making a regular blog post that will essentially be charts of many different stock sectors. There's not any commentary but perhaps they will be useful and the more you study them the more useful they will be. My hope is to post this 1x end of the week - every week and a more lengthy post 1x per month at the end of the month.

Feedback is always helpful.

http://steelhedge.com/2015/02/06/february-6-2015-weekly-update/
sounds good to me. now if only i knew how to read charts :kicksrock:
In real simple terms there are 2 "indicators" posted that determine a trend.

If price is above the Moving average line - in the same pane as price bars - Trend is Bullish. If the histogram in the bottom pane is positive - Trend is Bullish.

If price is below the Moving average line - in the same pane as price bars - Trend is Bearish. If the histogram in the bottom pane is negative- Trend is Bearish.

Strongest trends are when both "indicators" are aligned in the same trend direction.

Highest reward occurs when one takes a position in an early phase right after a trend "flips".

Strongest investments occur when multiple time frames confirm your position. IE: Daily and weekly trends or aligned in the same trend direction.

Monthly>Weekly>Daily>Hourly>Minute

All analysis (technical and fundamental) is secondary to price. Price rules all.

 
After 2 straight days of hard declines, today is setting up for another, so I sold all of my IGR today at $9.19. Looking forward to counting up my profit with dividend, will post later.

If history is a good guide, it's likely it will be trading in the $8.50 range in the next 30-60 days. I'll be be buying back in then.

 
I think we are still months away from a real recovery on oil. The last 3 sessions made me think twice about that, but the surplus and over-production are still very real.

OPEC is just ####### around with everyone. They want to completely shut our production down - In order to make that a reality, prices have to stay well below $60 for a decent length of time.

I agree with Drifter - the volatility will be pretty crazy with oil for the next few months. I felt very confident oil would test $40 a barrel in the future when researching last week. I still think this is likely, but my confidence after the rally over the last few sessions is wavering slightly.

If OPEC succeeds in crippling our production, I think a sneaky investment might be some land in places like Williston, North Dakota. If oil stays cheap, it will put most of the work in this area out of business, causing the land prices to plummet. Once prices rise and stabilize over the next 5 years, production in this area will be brought back and the land prices should sky rocket. Is this a crazy thought?
What land prices are you talking about? Commercial and residential real estate in North Dakota?
Residential real estate in Williston and surrounding.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/real-estate/average-rent-williston-n-tops-costs-nyc-article-1.1617187

If production is shut down, these prices will fall by gigantic amounts, pennies on the dollars.

At some point down the road, prices will stabilize and head north again, when they do, Williston oil will be mined again.

Just a thought.
The world will be a much better place when we don't instinctively plan to make our fortunes off the financial ruin of an individual or family. Don't be a carpet bagger profiting by taking someone else's home. Leave that to the Goldman's of the world.

Far more "moral" to look towards other "industries" in the Shale Boom (bust) areas to make your fortune. Liquor stores and strip clubs would be examples that come to mind.
Best post ever and you've made a lot of great posts.
I agree with the premise of the post, however the situation in Williston is filled with individuals who have bought out huge chunks of land as the oil boom there has gone on. I wouldn't look at this as banking off of the unfortunate.

More so, making money off of the speculators who have bought properties, charged gigantic rents, and there investments are about to tank.
I seriously doubt this happens. Even in a black swan oil event that lasts decades they can just sit on the dirt and wait for it to come back, and it will.

There's nothing to suggest they would have to take a bath.

This is not knowing a damn thing about price of land up there. For all I know it's 1000 an acre or 20000 and acre or 1MM an acre. I have no idea what it was then/now/future.

And how exactly do you short a local land play?

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
After 2 straight days of hard declines, today is setting up for another, so I sold all of my IGR today at $9.19. Looking forward to counting up my profit with dividend, will post later.

If history is a good guide, it's likely it will be trading in the $8.50 range in the next 30-60 days. I'll be be buying back in then.
Made $2195.12 + $3448.30 from dividends -$91.00 commissions for a profit of $5552.42 or 22%. :moneybag:

 
Reading and reading the posts in this thread. I have so much to learn and thanks for the information.

At this time only have 3 positions

GTAT - which went belly up cause of some Apple doing or something. :(

BABA- purchased first day it came out has been OK

FMI - This is my star got it for 25 now at 48

So my balance is positive which I'm happy with with GTAT going completely under after owning it for a week.

Like every one else going to get into oil now. Think I'm going to wait for the next down turn then get in.

 
Groupon earnings come out tomorrow after the bell. Stock price moves +/- 10% about 3/4 on earnings and +/-20% about 40% of the time. Will be fun to watch. AMZN popped this holiday season, but other Groupon copycats have crashed and burned this quarter.

 
Speaking to $UGA (and I can look at other Oil ETFs if anyone wants), but I'm long a position as twitted whenever that was in late Jan ($31), so $UGA is what I look at regularly.

I feel like there is solid confirmation of something more than just a tradeable bounce. (dare I say) We have an investible bullish trend at this point in time confirmed. Would love to see this close above $36 today.

I see support around $33. And if if fell there I'd be looking to add to the position.

Very easily I could see this run back towards $43 - which just so happens to be the exact intersect with the LT Moving Average Line and the the gap down price of Nov 28, 2014.

At $43...I'll re-assess...but that's my personal target. Below $30 - I'd be concerned and likely to change my opinion. But everyday the Bull Trend is in place and everyday price rises will only raise confidence in the trend in addition to that stop price.

Here's a chart:

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/f0b3be73-e907-4ca5-b104-9d51af49ebf7

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Speaking to $UGA (and I can look at other Oil ETFs if anyone wants), but I'm long a position as twitted whenever that was in late Jan ($31), so $UGA is what I look at regularly.

I feel like there is solid confirmation of something more than just a tradeable bounce. (dare I say) We have an investible bullish trend at this point in time confirmed. Would love to see this close above $36 today.

I see support around $33. And if if fell there I'd be looking to add to the position.

Very easily I could see this run back towards $43 - which just so happens to be the exact intersect with the LT Moving Average Line and the the gap down price of Nov 28, 2014.

At $43...I'll re-assess...but that's my personal target. Below $30 - I'd be concerned and likely to change my opinion. But everyday the Bull Trend is in place and everyday price rises will only raise confidence in the trend in addition to that stop price.
I may take a position in UGA today - I'll have to sell some AAPL to do so.

So, so hard to get off the AAPL ship while it's bursting forward though. :mellow:

 
Speaking to $UGA (and I can look at other Oil ETFs if anyone wants), but I'm long a position as twitted whenever that was in late Jan ($31), so $UGA is what I look at regularly.

I feel like there is solid confirmation of something more than just a tradeable bounce. (dare I say) We have an investible bullish trend at this point in time confirmed. Would love to see this close above $36 today.

I see support around $33. And if if fell there I'd be looking to add to the position.

Very easily I could see this run back towards $43 - which just so happens to be the exact intersect with the LT Moving Average Line and the the gap down price of Nov 28, 2014.

At $43...I'll re-assess...but that's my personal target. Below $30 - I'd be concerned and likely to change my opinion. But everyday the Bull Trend is in place and everyday price rises will only raise confidence in the trend in addition to that stop price.
Bought some UGA on 2/3 when you sent the tweet about it breaking resistance. Got it that day around $35.90. Seems like it has had a hard time staying above $36. Glad to see you are still bullish. Looking to hold this and will be following along with you.

 
Speaking to $UGA (and I can look at other Oil ETFs if anyone wants), but I'm long a position as twitted whenever that was in late Jan ($31), so $UGA is what I look at regularly.

I feel like there is solid confirmation of something more than just a tradeable bounce. (dare I say) We have an investible bullish trend at this point in time confirmed. Would love to see this close above $36 today.

I see support around $33. And if if fell there I'd be looking to add to the position.

Very easily I could see this run back towards $43 - which just so happens to be the exact intersect with the LT Moving Average Line and the the gap down price of Nov 28, 2014.

At $43...I'll re-assess...but that's my personal target. Below $30 - I'd be concerned and likely to change my opinion. But everyday the Bull Trend is in place and everyday price rises will only raise confidence in the trend in addition to that stop price.
Do you have any particular point of view of when the commodity technical and the service technical for that commodity are trending in different directions?

I've seen different approaches for when lets say gold miners vs price of gold and how when they are both bullish for a period of time that it's a time to get out of the raw material?

Note: I'm not a real investor I just buy low cost index funds and hold them. I follow this stuff you talk about as a hobby.

 
Speaking to $UGA (and I can look at other Oil ETFs if anyone wants), but I'm long a position as twitted whenever that was in late Jan ($31), so $UGA is what I look at regularly.

I feel like there is solid confirmation of something more than just a tradeable bounce. (dare I say) We have an investible bullish trend at this point in time confirmed. Would love to see this close above $36 today.

I see support around $33. And if if fell there I'd be looking to add to the position.

Very easily I could see this run back towards $43 - which just so happens to be the exact intersect with the LT Moving Average Line and the the gap down price of Nov 28, 2014.

At $43...I'll re-assess...but that's my personal target. Below $30 - I'd be concerned and likely to change my opinion. But everyday the Bull Trend is in place and everyday price rises will only raise confidence in the trend in addition to that stop price.
Do you have any particular point of view of when the commodity technical and the service technical for that commodity are trending in different directions?

I've seen different approaches for when lets say gold miners vs price of gold and how when they are both bullish for a period of time that it's a time to get out of the raw material?

Note: I'm not a real investor I just buy low cost index funds and hold them. I follow this stuff you talk about as a hobby.
Unfortunately I'm not that sophisticated (or smart).

I'm just trying to figure out if price is generally moving up or if it is generally moving down and when do the odds favor me taking the risk on a particular direction.

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.

 
MCP effectively doubled in the last week. If it can keep up that pace for the remainder of the year, I may get back to about 50% of my basis.

 
BTW, does anyone else think the market is a tad bit frothy right now?

IDK, it feels like irrational exuberance 2.0 :shrug:
Not really. It has been doinking around for 6 months, just fought off a slew of mini-drops on bad vibes concerning oil and Europe, and just broke through the 2060 ceiling of short term resistance in the S&P500 index. Good bet we are in for a nice extension towards 2200 over the next 2 months.

 
MCP effectively doubled in the last week. If it can keep up that pace for the remainder of the year, I may get back to about 50% of my basis.
I actually hit a homerun on Lynas years back.

Why the pop on Molycorp? Aren't they going bankrupt?
Rare earths are going crazy. All associated stocks rallying. I'm staying away forever.

God, I can't wait for BitGold IPO.
I only have what I got from the Neo sale. When the bottom dropped out, it didn't seem worth selling. But I chuckle every time I see action one way or the other. The last week's been nuts.

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
Where did you start with Amaya?
Personally at 2-3.

Our firm was in at a dollar when Amaya was a $5MM market cap.

I'm going to name one of the twins Amaya if female.

 
The company that runs the 50/50 raffles at sporting events IPOing soonish. They have a monopoly on this and have other interests including fantasy sports (bought rotowire and fan guru I think). They get a nice rake on those raffles and are expanding everywhere. I'll have more on this but am amped up for this IPO as well as BitGold.

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
Where did you start with Amaya?
Personally at 2-3.

Our firm was in at a dollar when Amaya was a $5MM market cap.

I'm going to name one of the twins Amaya if female.
Twins? Really? :thumbup:

Didn't know the group involvement in the stock. Looks like it's been a fun ride!

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
GM, did Amaya buy Pokerstars? I remember reading about it a while back, but thought it was just talks at that time. You like them as a long term or just waiting for it to pop if USA allows online poker?

 
Drifter said:
Last couple days sure have been nice...
Was up 7% today. One of my core positions (Clearwater Seafood) hit an all time high today. Love this company so hard. Amaya back on the hop. Great way to go into a 3 day weekend.
Where did you start with Amaya?
Personally at 2-3.Our firm was in at a dollar when Amaya was a $5MM market cap.

I'm going to name one of the twins Amaya if female.
Twins? Really? :thumbup:

Didn't know the group involvement in the stock. Looks like it's been a fun ride!
Yeah, twins. Ugh. I'm 42. This is a nightmare I'm not waking up from.

I was banging the gong pretty hard on Amaya for a couple of years. Was a huge home run for us. Our Fund was +87% net for 2014 and that's after a -16% Dec.

Good start to 2015...lord knows I need it. :)

How you been old friend?

 

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