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Stock Thread (46 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Buying more.... It is a matter of time. Rate hike is coming, the drop in yield today is a head fake IMO. If I hold this long enough, I don't know how it loses.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I think the negatives have been priced in. The fundamentals for companies like BP are relatively strong when compared to just about every other sector where prices are inflated.
As you acknowledged, the stock price isn't going much lower and the dividend is tremendous. You've mitigated any risk right there while getting any upside by positive news in the vertical.
It's a nice spot IMHO.
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I completely agree with you that the negatives have been priced in. That's kind of my point - I don't see the negatives going anywhere. They are sitting there poised to strike if oil prices try to creep up.
I love the dividend, but I've seen too many dividend high stocks that plummet if the company is forced to decrease the dividend.
So when I look at BP, on the surface we're close to a 52-week low and a high-paying dividend, but when you dig deeper I question the ability for oil prices to rise much more than where they currently sit, which is a problem because the surplus of oil currently held has created a shortage of STORAGE for the oil. The next step is to constrain production, which is seldom good news for the industry as a whole.
It's possible we're just in another oil cycle, but I really think this time we're looking at the new new normal for oil prices.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02391571?term=eli-200&rank=1
Hopefully blue skies ahead!
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone care to make a prediction on when the first rate hike takes place... It will be small, .62% - I'm putting my eggs in two baskets, 40% June / 60% September.
No later IMO
No later IMO
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
85% Sep/10% June/5% later, but I thought it would happen last year at some point, too.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Siff, curious what you see when you look at this chart? http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countrycode=BX
It is the 10 year treasury, I tried looking at it and from what I see it is conflicted, then again I'm not very good at looking at charts
It is the 10 year treasury, I tried looking at it and from what I see it is conflicted, then again I'm not very good at looking at charts
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The Chicago guy is extremely against... 2 others also are... About 4 are very open to a hike in June and the rest are awaiting data from what we know now.85% Sep/10% June/5% later, but I thought it would happen last year at some point, too.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I'm all in favor of June. It's been what, six years down here?
metoo
Footballguy
I'm guessing September but I would like for it to be later just so I can see Santelli head explode.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
I think the position you hold in in $DTYS has some technical hurdles to overcome. First and a major one is that it needs to hold above $22.50. Maybe it bottomed back in Feb, but to me it looks like it will take some time for this very long term bear trend to resolve. To me it's likely the position will see pressure for weeks and weeks -> months...not days.fantasycurse42 said:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bought 100 SCO at $90.00
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
SWKS. Unreal. Glad I at least jumped on AMBA.
culdeus
Footballguy
I think they raise it for no other reason to have room to lower it at a future date. The impact of a small rate hike will be mainly psychological. And they need to test to see if there are any real impacts to housing and all that.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I've been waiting for a pullback to add since 80. At least I made a few dollars on some expired puts.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I kind of agree, wouldn't any rate hike just be charging the country more money as they are one of the biggest borrowers?
My hopes are it stays low, and then in about 15 years when I want to retire we're back to the days when CD's pay like 8% or something and I can just coast with my investments.
I imagine it's pretty tough right now as a retired person when there is no safe haven that pays anything.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Ugh. Charlie Evans just said he thinks 2016 is more likely for 1st rate hike. STicking with my Sept. mst likely vote, though.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
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stubby
Footballguy
I'm currently up almost 200% since adding position when I nominated it for the 2014 contest.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The Chicago guy? He's been the most dovish member for a little while.
There are only two members severely opposed to rate hikes in 2015 as of now.
spreagle
Footballguy
The economy used to be about saving and investing. Now saving as we used to know it (putting money in the bank) has been completely killed off and the economy is now about borrowing and investing. Any rate hike now would shut down the "borrowing" driven portion of the economy which currently like 99% of the economy. It used to be that a downturn in the economy would get some of the savers to invest, but like I said, savers have been killed off in favor of pandering to borrowers. Why hike rates when it only benefits savers and there are no savers (who are also voters) left?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Added 55 AAPL to bring my total to 85 @ $127.83
Most of the reviews of the iWatch are negative. I'm making another contrarian bet.
Most of the reviews of the iWatch are negative. I'm making another contrarian bet.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
unpack this a bit further, I'm intrigued by your post and am pressing the "tell me more" button
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Stanley Fischer is giving a speech today... He has had a slightly more hawkish view, as has The St Louis guy Bullard who also spoke today. Bullard implied a rate hike hike was coming this year and the market is overreacting to the dovish tone from the last meeting.
Curious what Fischer says today. Last month he said "It is time to raise rates"...
Curious what Fischer says today. Last month he said "It is time to raise rates"...
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
My first savings account when I was a kid yielded something like 14%.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Regarding rate hikes, my broker mentioned that there are currently some countries with a negative interest rate. He specifically mentioned the Swiss and some other Euro countries.
His point was that if this is the global trend the US will be hard-pressed to raise their rates.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
~17.90 seems to a key resistance level for BAC. If it breaks above that, I might consider a position.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.
Sand
Footballguy
BAC is a hunk of crap whether in a good economy or bad. I don't see the point. 25 year return for BAC, including dividends, is 4.4%. 15 year return for BAC, including dividends, is -6.6%.
Lots of banks are like this. Huge payroll, not much shareholder value creation.
Sand
Footballguy
On to fun stuff here - Whitney Tilson is just destroying Lumber Liquidators. Damn.
Selling my house soon and am very, very glad I didn't buy there.
Selling my house soon and am very, very glad I didn't buy there.
sbonomo
Footballguy
i own a chit load - Average price of 8.50 or so. Siff and i had a good back and forth around this one. Resistence level on the low end is 15 or so. High end around 18. Fundamentally, the bank is poised to make a huge move in the market but not growing as fast as the street would like to see. We basically determined that this is not a sell by any means, but it does have some upside.
TripItUp
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The rates keep dropping even though every Fed official I've read about in the last two days has a more hawkish view:
Replaced Yellen in SF
Vice Chairman Fischer
St Louis Fed
A note from the Cleveland Fed about a strong dollar not causing deflation
Charlie Evans out of Chicago is by far the most Dovish of the crew, but it looks more and more like he is being way outnumbered. The market is interpreting the latest Fed meeting however they want, I'm reading between the lines and anticipate a hike is coming this year. It will rattle the markets, but who gives a ####, they don't need to be at a record high everyday until eternity.
A hike is coming, the 10 year yield as of this post is 1.88%, that is ####### ridiculous! You can't have a "normal healthy" economy like this.
I am continuing to increase my position in DTYS and will be holding for as long as it takes, my target is north of 3%, I own 2,000 shares with an average cost around $20, I won't sell a share until it hits $30 as long as that takes.
At $16 I buy another 1,000 shares.
Replaced Yellen in SF
Vice Chairman Fischer
St Louis Fed
A note from the Cleveland Fed about a strong dollar not causing deflation
Charlie Evans out of Chicago is by far the most Dovish of the crew, but it looks more and more like he is being way outnumbered. The market is interpreting the latest Fed meeting however they want, I'm reading between the lines and anticipate a hike is coming this year. It will rattle the markets, but who gives a ####, they don't need to be at a record high everyday until eternity.
A hike is coming, the 10 year yield as of this post is 1.88%, that is ####### ridiculous! You can't have a "normal healthy" economy like this.
I am continuing to increase my position in DTYS and will be holding for as long as it takes, my target is north of 3%, I own 2,000 shares with an average cost around $20, I won't sell a share until it hits $30 as long as that takes.
At $16 I buy another 1,000 shares.
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SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
Speculating on interst rates seems risky to me. There are a lot of moving parts. GL.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
How much lower can they go?
Are we moving to a Eurozone format? WIl they go below zero?
NREC34
Footballguy
Some biotechs that could be good (just my opinion, I don't guarantee anything like Em)
NVIV- they are developing a technology to cute paralysis. There is a YouTube video recently out showing a girl moving her leg after getting the implant.
AMRN- pretty low price right now. Vescepa is a good drug.
TRIL- might have a cancer cure
CFRX- has some nice new drugs like Lysin
SLTD- up and coming solar company. Just got a big airport contract.
NVIV- they are developing a technology to cute paralysis. There is a YouTube video recently out showing a girl moving her leg after getting the implant.
AMRN- pretty low price right now. Vescepa is a good drug.
TRIL- might have a cancer cure
CFRX- has some nice new drugs like Lysin
SLTD- up and coming solar company. Just got a big airport contract.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
SGYP, I picked up last month at $2.98, of course I only grabbed 1,000 shares, but can't complain...
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
"soft inflation"
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
ool
Just wondering out loud if that term will be the "irrational exuberance" of this decade. I find the recent significant wage increases by the retail titans particularly interesting.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Home starts really slowed this quarter, GDP isn't trending where we thought it would, inflation, soft inflation, hyperinflation, deflation, equity markets, dollar strength, dollar weakness, unemployment, underemployment, central banks, negative foreign rates, job finding rate, wage stagnation, global economy, falling costs due to cheap oil, rising costs due to oil spikes, decreased exports, increased imports, an old friend came in from out of town, an earthquake, a terrible flood, locusts!
There are always going to be reasons to not raise rates.
There are always going to be reasons to not raise rates.
