Stock Thread (55 Viewers)

[St. Louis Bob]

Home starts really slowed this quarter, GDP isn't trending where we thought it would, inflation, soft inflation, hyperinflation, deflation, equity markets, dollar strength, dollar weakness, unemployment, underemployment, central banks, negative foreign rates, job finding rate, wage stagnation, global economy, falling costs due to cheap oil, rising costs due to oil spikes, decreased exports, increased imports, an old friend came in from out of town, an earthquake, a terrible flood, locusts!

There are always going to be reasons to not raise rates.

You forgot vaginal mesh. I don't watch a lot of television but when I do it's all they are talking about.

 

[joetrow]

The rates keep dropping even though every Fed official I've read about in the last two days has a more hawkish view:

Replaced Yellen in SF

Vice Chairman Fischer

St Louis Fed

A note from the Cleveland Fed about a strong dollar not causing deflation

Charlie Evans out of Chicago is by far the most Dovish of the crew, but it looks more and more like he is being way outnumbered. The market is interpreting the latest Fed meeting however they want, I'm reading between the lines and anticipate a hike is coming this year. It will rattle the markets, but who gives a ####, they don't need to be at a record high everyday until eternity.

A hike is coming, the 10 year yield as of this post is 1.88%, that is ####### ridiculous! You can't have a "normal healthy" economy like this.

I am continuing to increase my position in DTYS and will be holding for as long as it takes, my target is north of 3%, I own 2,000 shares with an average cost around $20, I won't sell a share until it hits $30 as long as that takes.

At $16 I buy another 1,000 shares.

I think in the near term you are more likely to see bond rates rise if the fed doesn't raise FF rates. I guess it really depends on an individuals view of where we are; are we in a fed induced credit bubble which raising rates will eventually pop and therefore cause a flight to safety, forcing bond rates even lower; or is everything honkey dorey and this rate raise is just one of many in our return to normalcy?

 

[eoMMan]

Home starts really slowed this quarter, GDP isn't trending where we thought it would, inflation, soft inflation, hyperinflation, deflation, equity markets, dollar strength, dollar weakness, unemployment, underemployment, central banks, negative foreign rates, job finding rate, wage stagnation, global economy, falling costs due to cheap oil, rising costs due to oil spikes, decreased exports, increased imports, an old friend came in from out of town, an earthquake, a terrible flood, locusts!

There are always going to be reasons to not raise rates.

You forgot vaginal mesh. I don't watch a lot of television but when I do it's all they are talking about.

I've been meaning to call my lawyer about that....thanks for the reminder.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The rates keep dropping even though every Fed official I've read about in the last two days has a more hawkish view:

Replaced Yellen in SF

Vice Chairman Fischer

St Louis Fed

A note from the Cleveland Fed about a strong dollar not causing deflation

Charlie Evans out of Chicago is by far the most Dovish of the crew, but it looks more and more like he is being way outnumbered. The market is interpreting the latest Fed meeting however they want, I'm reading between the lines and anticipate a hike is coming this year. It will rattle the markets, but who gives a ####, they don't need to be at a record high everyday until eternity.

A hike is coming, the 10 year yield as of this post is 1.88%, that is ####### ridiculous! You can't have a "normal healthy" economy like this.

I am continuing to increase my position in DTYS and will be holding for as long as it takes, my target is north of 3%, I own 2,000 shares with an average cost around $20, I won't sell a share until it hits $30 as long as that takes.

At $16 I buy another 1,000 shares.

I think in the near term you are more likely to see bond rates rise if the fed doesn't raise FF rates. I guess it really depends on an individuals view of where we are; are we in a fed induced credit bubble which raising rates will eventually pop and therefore cause a flight to safety, forcing bond rates even lower; or is everything honkey dorey and this rate raise is just one of many in our return to normalcy?

In the very near term, 1-3 months I agree about the bond rates, however most of the data coming in is fairly decent (housing and employment are ####### roaring) and some of the most senior members of the fed have stated this isn't normal and we need to get back to normal. It's not a secret either, you can't #### the elderly and savers forever and blow a gigantic asset bubble. I Try and read what every Fed official says and as of the last 3 months, there are 3 that are against hikes, a few who haven't said anything on the record, and the rest are for hikes. The market will have a tantrum just like it did 2 years ago with tapering, but with these already big valuations, a correction wouldn't be the worst thing. The position I'm taking is risky, but I just don't see how the rates get much lower than where they are today. DTYS literally trades 1-1 with the 10 year treasury rate. Today it was at 18.20 and the yield was 1.82%... At some point I don't see how we aren't at least at 3% (it was there a year ago with no immediate threat of hikes), whether in 15 months or 8 years and I can realize a 50% gain.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

Another 100 @ $82.51 for 300 @ $85.97

Inventories rose almost double the expected amount. Nailed that part. Yemen, not so much. Praying for peace, Yemen.

 

[NREC34]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

 

[Dentist]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

 

[NREC34]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

 

[Sand]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

What makes you think this is going to crash? The biggest indicator of a significant downturn is a negative yield curve (and it is significantly positive right now).

 

[Dentist]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

Good luck timing the market out and in.

 

[NREC34]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

What makes you think this is going to crash? The biggest indicator of a significant downturn is a negative yield curve (and it is significantly positive right now).

I'm not sure you can use a negative yield curve to tell anything when interest rates are close to zero.

This bull market can't last forever. I've been watching different biotech companies for the past few weeks and what an almost total bloodbath for all of them today. Nobody knows for sure but maybe the bubble is starting to burst. Like Jim Cramer says, sometimes you need to ring the cash register.

 

[Sand]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

What makes you think this is going to crash? The biggest indicator of a significant downturn is a negative yield curve (and it is significantly positive right now).

I'm not sure you can use a negative yield curve to tell anything when interest rates are close to zero.

This bull market can't last forever. I've been watching different biotech companies for the past few weeks and what an almost total bloodbath for all of them today. Nobody knows for sure but maybe the bubble is starting to burst. Like Jim Cramer says, sometimes you need to ring the cash register.

I just committed to a large check to buy a new house. Guaranteed, leveraged growth for the next 15 years.

IMO, this market isn't massively overvalued. Nowhere near 2000. Not even close.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Thinking about jumping into a leveraged oil ETF tomorrow for a quick day trade... Feels like the Yemen stuff is gonna give it room to run.

I think it'll come back down, but for a quick trade I think it might be good for a quick 3-5%.

Sorry SLB, your though process was right and supplies are building, but the timing was terrible, ####### Saudis.

 

[kevzilla]

"I've got a great investment thesis. It involves peace in the Middle East."

 

[TripItUp]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The Fed calendar is fuller. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking in Frankfurt, said risks of keeping U.S. policy of rates at zero too long could be substantial.

Now may be a good time to begin normalizing U.S. monetary policy so that it is set appropriately for an improving economy over the next two years, Bullard said in prepared remarks to the OMFIF City Lecture in Frankfurt, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will speak in Frankfurt on the U.S. nonbank financial sector at 6:30 a.m. Eastern. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a voting member of the Fed, takes part in an on-stage discussion in Detroit about U.S. monetary policy and economic outlook at 9 a.m. Eastern Time.

Fischer is very respected member, we know he wants rates up this year from previous comments. Lockhart is a voting member and wants rates up and Bullsrd might be the most hawkish of the bunch, he isn't a voting member this year though, the other two are.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

Another 100 @ $82.51 for 300 @ $85.97

Inventories rose almost double the expected amount. Nailed that part. Yemen, not so much. Praying for peace, Yemen.

Another 100 at $78.70 for 400 @ $84.15

Stupid ####### militants.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Micro cap Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP +6.5%) jumps in early trading on rumors that it is exploring a potential sale.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Micro cap Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP +6.5%) jumps in early trading on rumors that it is exploring a potential sale.

Mentioned this the other day, sitting on 1,000 shares since $2.98.

Wish I had more.

I've tried picking up 10k shares of UWTI at $2.57 twice today and failed both times

Looking to get in at $2.57 and out at $2.62.

ETA:

Didn't hit my $2.57 bid 8 minutes ago and is now at $2.64

I can't chase this one. I think it'll be up and down all day and makes for a quick profit.

 

[fantasycurse42]

On another note, Equifax appears highly overvalued to me. There margins are razor thin and an increase in cheaper or lower cost competition could really damage their business.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Oil running today... I'm an ####### and speculating on 7,000 shares of UWTI at $2.79, looking to exit at $2.85

ETA:

Very few people have that rare ability to hit the HOD, it's a gift

ETA 2: It was ####### there, my order just wasn't executed

 

[Dentist]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

Another 100 @ $82.51 for 300 @ $85.97

Inventories rose almost double the expected amount. Nailed that part. Yemen, not so much. Praying for peace, Yemen.

Another 100 at $78.70 for 400 @ $84.15

Stupid ####### militants.

i have 1800 shares of UCO and I'm currently jerking off with motor oil as lube all over my portfolio... monster day

 

[skycriesmary]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

Another 100 @ $82.51 for 300 @ $85.97

Inventories rose almost double the expected amount. Nailed that part. Yemen, not so much. Praying for peace, Yemen.

Another 100 at $78.70 for 400 @ $84.15

Stupid ####### militants.

i have 1800 shares of UCO and I'm currently jerking off with motor oil as lube all over my portfolio... monster day

Thanks for the visual. :X

 

[fantasycurse42]

Oil running today... I'm an ####### and speculating on 7,000 shares of UWTI at $2.79, looking to exit at $2.85

ETA:

Very few people have that rare ability to hit the HOD, it's a gift

ETA 2: It was ####### there, my order just wasn't executed

Out at $2.81...

Whatever, I'll take my $120 and move on.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Just saw this. Don't know anything about it, but if you have kids and contribute the minimum, it seems like it's worth at least looking into.

 

[-CE-]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

I pulled the trigger and bought some at $39.62 today. I'm terrified tbqh.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

• The Zip Code you entered is out of our business area.

WTF? It's 2015. Nobody should ever be outside any business' business area.

 

[TripItUp]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

I pulled the trigger and bought some at $39.62 today. I'm terrified tbqh.

yeah, dividend gives you some protection...at least wait to cash in on that.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Today, we're in more than 11 states, thanks to you.

MORE than 11 states.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

All these oil companies have to be staring at multiple disappointing quarters at this point, no? We think that's priced in, with little to no downside already?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Now thinking about buying some CFG. They certainly have room to grow.

 

[-CE-]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

I pulled the trigger and bought some at $39.62 today. I'm terrified tbqh.

yeah, dividend gives you some protection...at least wait to cash in on that.

If they cut the dividend the stock goes into the tank, hard. That's what terrifies me.

 

[-CE-]

All these oil companies have to be staring at multiple disappointing quarters at this point, no? We think that's priced in, with little to no downside already?

I commented on this a few pages back. That downside is definitely priced in by now. Everyone knows the Saudi's are manipulating the market, people want to punish Russia, etc.

I also get worried that what isn't priced in... is we have a situation where if oil prices do rise, it makes the investment in fracking, green energy, etc., viable from a business standpoint. So we will probably never see oil prices rise to the levels they did in the past.

If that's right, it hasn't been priced into the market... and we could be looking at a new new normal for oil prices for the long term future.

 

[humpback]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

I pulled the trigger and bought some at $39.62 today. I'm terrified tbqh.

yeah, dividend gives you some protection...at least wait to cash in on that.

The dividend lowers the stock price by the same amount.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

All these oil companies have to be staring at multiple disappointing quarters at this point, no? We think that's priced in, with little to no downside already?

I commented on this a few pages back. That downside is definitely priced in by now. Everyone knows the Saudi's are manipulating the market, people want to punish Russia, etc.

I also get worried that what isn't priced in... is we have a situation where if oil prices do rise, it makes the investment in fracking, green energy, etc., viable from a business standpoint. So we will probably never see oil prices rise to the levels they did in the past.

If that's right, it hasn't been priced into the market... and we could be looking at a new new normal for oil prices for the long term future.

I thought all of the downside was priced into LL when I read about the 60 Minutes expose on the Wednesday before it aired. I was very wrong obviously. Just saying.

 

[TripItUp]

BP up 10% since posting here in a market that has been down.

I pulled the trigger and bought some at $39.62 today. I'm terrified tbqh.

yeah, dividend gives you some protection...at least wait to cash in on that.

If they cut the dividend the stock goes into the tank, hard. That's what terrifies me.

depends on the cut, but I hear ya

 

[NajehHejan]

Anyone have the cajones to wager on Russia’s stock index?

Yes, the Russian economy is in the tank. Alcoholics are getting drunk on cleaning supplies instead of vodka. Unemployment is high. The GDP is expected to shrink by 4%. However, the currency situation has stabilized as the ruble has gained back a lot of ground. The banks are in ok shape and their monetary policy has been pretty good in order to try to get things back on track (initially hiking rates and now cutting them back). Oil prices are stabilizing somewhat. Inflationary concerns are alleviating a bit. And Putin is a beast.

3X BULL ETF = RUSL

3X BEAR ETF = RUSS

Gun to your head – which one would you choose?

 

[eoMMan]

Anyone else thinking this could be the start of a huge correction? I'm taking my 401k to 95% cash. It was 75%

are you retiring soon?

No just worried this thing is going to crash soon.

What makes you think this is going to crash? The biggest indicator of a significant downturn is a negative yield curve (and it is significantly positive right now).

I'm not sure you can use a negative yield curve to tell anything when interest rates are close to zero. This bull market can't last forever. I've been watching different biotech companies for the past few weeks and what an almost total bloodbath for all of them today. Nobody knows for sure but maybe the bubble is starting to burst. Like Jim Cramer says, sometimes you need to ring the cash register.

Cramer is a turd. His words should mean nothing to you and I.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 100 SCO @ $89.40 at the bell.

Bought another 100 @ $86.00 to give me 200 @ $87.70. There SO much oil out there and space to store it all is filling up quickly. Guess I'll find out this afternoon for sure.

Another 100 @ $82.51 for 300 @ $85.97

Inventories rose almost double the expected amount. Nailed that part. Yemen, not so much. Praying for peace, Yemen.

Another 100 at $78.70 for 400 @ $84.15

Stupid ####### militants.

Out this morning at $84.25 for a profit of $56.00 after commissions. :confetti:

Really, really, really, tempted to hold because oil should drop more, particularly with this Iran deal, but VERY happy to get our of this and needed to reset.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Anyone have the cajones to wager on Russia’s stock index?

Yes, the Russian economy is in the tank. Alcoholics are getting drunk on cleaning supplies instead of vodka. Unemployment is high. The GDP is expected to shrink by 4%. However, the currency situation has stabilized as the ruble has gained back a lot of ground. The banks are in ok shape and their monetary policy has been pretty good in order to try to get things back on track (initially hiking rates and now cutting them back). Oil prices are stabilizing somewhat. Inflationary concerns are alleviating a bit. And Putin is a beast.

3X BULL ETF = RUSL

3X BEAR ETF = RUSS

Gun to your head – which one would you choose?

I always go with black.

 

[Dentist]

Anyone have the cajones to wager on Russia’s stock index?

Yes, the Russian economy is in the tank. Alcoholics are getting drunk on cleaning supplies instead of vodka. Unemployment is high. The GDP is expected to shrink by 4%. However, the currency situation has stabilized as the ruble has gained back a lot of ground. The banks are in ok shape and their monetary policy has been pretty good in order to try to get things back on track (initially hiking rates and now cutting them back). Oil prices are stabilizing somewhat. Inflationary concerns are alleviating a bit. And Putin is a beast.

3X BULL ETF = RUSL

3X BEAR ETF = RUSS

Gun to your head – which one would you choose?

I only want to profit from Russia's demise... making money off them seems like betting the don'ts on the craps table

 

[eoMMan]

Bought some WWE at $14.11/shr. I think people are overreacting to the subscriber numbers and the numbers from last night's wrestlemania shows that wrestling is still very popular.

They should have a promotion where a random shareholder gets a date with Paige or AJ Lee. That would be awesome.

 

[NajehHejan]

If the Iran nuclear deal goes though tonight, analysts expect oil prices to instantly get hammered by about $5/barrel. I'll watch the carnage for a day or two then look to load up on UCO in the low 6's. Buy and hold until 50% profit made.

 

[Dentist]

If the Iran nuclear deal goes though tonight, analysts expect oil prices to instantly get hammered by about $5/barrel. I'll watch the carnage for a day or two then look to load up on UCO in the low 6's. Buy and hold until 50% profit made.

If UCO revisits sub-6 again, I intend to buy more. My 1800 shares i have are at a cost basis of 6.90, so i'm down a small amount.

 

[TripItUp]

If the Iran nuclear deal goes though tonight, analysts expect oil prices to instantly get hammered by about $5/barrel. I'll watch the carnage for a day or two then look to load up on UCO in the low 6's. Buy and hold until 50% profit made.

 

[humpback]

If the Iran nuclear deal goes though tonight, analysts expect oil prices to instantly get hammered by about $5/barrel. I'll watch the carnage for a day or two then look to load up on UCO in the low 6's. Buy and hold until 50% profit made.

If UCO revisits sub-6 again, I intend to buy more. My 1800 shares i have are at a cost basis of 6.90, so i'm down a small amount.

Plus the cost of lube.

 

[Card Trader]

Big day today

 

[fantasycurse42]

IDK how much lower the 10 year rate can go... It is around 1.85% right now... I have to think the one year upside is around 3% while the downside can't be lower than 1.5% (and even that would be pretty low).

I'm buying more DTYS if it gets to the $17 area.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 100 SCO @ $78.50