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If this is indeed a correction before another leg up I think it's a good possibility we will retest the lows of yesterday. At least I hope so. I did take a small taste of 250 UCO @ $18.42 for 1450 @ $31.21.

Looking to add AMZN, NFLX, DIS

Looking to add more GILD, GOOGL, LLY, TGT, BIDU, PG, IGR
Did some buying at the bell.

New position in NFLX, 25 @110.07

25 TGT @ $76.81 for 75 @ $76.88

20 AAPL @ 109.68 for 105 @ 121.37

5 GOOGL @ 659.77 for 37 @ 548.59

20 GILD @ 106.79 for 60 @ $104.48

 
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How long will this drop last (started about 1:25)?
Not long...we're soaring now.
Figures. As soon as Schiff and Marc Faber come out saying the end is here, the markets take off.
Those two have called nineteen of the last two recessions. When a permabull like Cramer says to sell, wade in and buy with both fists.
This rodeo isn't over yet.


Down to $46.28, stock bounces all over the place. I think it will be good long term.
I can't get excited by them. Basically no moat in a niche market that is currently a fad. IMO they are a lot of what happened with Crocs.

 
In the last week day trading, I was up $13k, then $16k, now $10k... I lost $6k of profits on the biggest bull day in 4 years :kicksrock:

Prob gonna shuffle my personal funds to the sidelines and regroup for a few days, although it looks like the market is rallying, China's government is intervening, and a V shaped pattern is taking hold.

I look at stock prices and nothing looks like it is "on sale" to me, but pockets are emptied at every dip. NFLX is the perfect example of this. They're already priced to perfection with their ####ty content and thin margins (they're strictly valued on distribution IMO), yet they fall from their insanely high valuations in a week and everyone comes in with two fists of cash to buy them at a very slightly less ridiculous valuation.

 
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GOOOOOOOOOOD MORNING

cos - RUSS is down to 45....

Starting to think about loading up.

TVIX is dangerously close to dropping below $11 again. If it does, I'm going to get back in and hopefully make another quick grand.

 
How long will this drop last (started about 1:25)?
Not long...we're soaring now.
Figures. As soon as Schiff and Marc Faber come out saying the end is here, the markets take off.
Those two have called nineteen of the last two recessions. When a permabull like Cramer says to sell, wade in and buy with both fists.
This rodeo isn't over yet.


Down to $46.28, stock bounces all over the place. I think it will be good long term.
I can't get excited by them. Basically no moat in a niche market that is currently a fad. IMO they are a lot of what happened with Crocs.
That's where we differ. I don't think the desire to video tape what we are doing is a fad, it's a hobby here to stay. Maybe another company will be able to compete in the niche or other products will take over, but the market itself isn't going away.

 
If this is indeed a correction before another leg up I think it's a good possibility we will retest the lows of yesterday. At least I hope so. I did take a small taste of 250 UCO @ $18.42 for 1450 @ $31.21.

Looking to add AMZN, NFLX, DIS

Looking to add more GILD, GOOGL, LLY, TGT, BIDU, PG, IGR
Did some buying at the bell.

New position in NFLX, 25 @110.07

25 TGT @ $76.81 for 75 @ $76.88

20 AAPL @ 109.68 for 105 @ 121.37

5 GOOGL @ 659.77 for 37 @ 548.59

20 GILD @ 106.79 for 60 @ $104.48
New position in AMZN 10 @ 516.50

Added 25 BIDU @ $150.47 for 44 @ $178.54

Done for a while now.

 
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When I look back on these times in 5 years, I'm still not sure if I'm going to a genius or an idiot on oil plays. Happy to see some positives today.

 
When I look back on these times in 5 years, I'm still not sure if I'm going to a genius or an idiot on oil plays. Happy to see some positives today.
Wti up because a bp factory came online sooner than expected. There was concern storages would overflow.

 
I didn't buy or sell a thing through this.

:shrug:

Still watching wti
I didn't either. Had I some cash, I might have added to some of my core holdings.


And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market.

You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
– Jesse Livermore
 
And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market.

You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
– Jesse Livermore
It's easy to sit there and say you'd like to have more money. And I guess that's what I like about it. It's easy. Just sitting there, rocking back and forth, wanting that money.

- Jack Handey

 
last half hour overall wasn't very fun.

yeesh
The list i gave you earlier returned about 50% today. I only got about 30, since i held overnight and had higher basis. This morning's really was a great buying opportunity for inverse etfs.I continue to believe the next few weeks will be bearish and volatile. I'm up 23% in the last 5 days, including a lot of really poorly timed ins and outs
Update? (not rubbing it in, genuinely curious)

 
What a crazy ### 2 weeks.

Possible to make money, but if anything proves the adage that the stock market is a gamble, it's the last 2 weeks we've gotten.

I actually think we're going to stabilize and grow slowly until October or so with everything happening in the global markets and then we're looking at a traditionally bumpy October.

Get your accounts funded so you can make money when the chance hits boys.

Oil price will be the fun stuff to watch as I'm very heavy in UCO and also a small check of RUSS to hedge it.

 
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Possible to make money, but if anything proves the adage that the stock market is a gamble, it's the last 2 weeks we've gotten.
Stock market isn't a gamble as long as you hold long enough. Times like these provide opportunities to grab things on sale.

I regret not pulling the trigger on FCX (holy ####, who knew), but did get some good tax losses in there and bought back in bigger than I sold, so edged in a little. Definitely overweighted on EPD and KMI, but I'm a sucker for trying to boost dividend yields. I'm hoping if I keep nibbling away at solid companies like that I can provide for a good chunk of my income needs later on with these things.

 
Question:

If leveraged ETFs always decay, can't I just short both sides? I mean I need to find a trading house that can let me borrow the shares, but wouldn't that be a safe play?

 
Question:

If leveraged ETFs always decay, can't I just short both sides? I mean I need to find a trading house that can let me borrow the shares, but wouldn't that be a safe play?
I've been successful with synthetic shorts (buying puts, selling calls) for the leveraged ETFs.

You're correct that they decay but if you look at FAS, for example, it was $9.01 on 8/30/2010 and is at $28 and change this morning. In the market we've had for the last 5 years, it's been able to overcome the decay for substantial gains.

 
humpback said:
last half hour overall wasn't very fun.

yeesh
The list i gave you earlier returned about 50% today. I only got about 30, since i held overnight and had higher basis. This morning's really was a great buying opportunity for inverse etfs.I continue to believe the next few weeks will be bearish and volatile. I'm up 23% in the last 5 days, including a lot of really poorly timed ins and outs
Update? (not rubbing it in, genuinely curious)
Still believe, but I went from +23K to -9K so far this week.

Today's new holdings: AMGN DXD FAZ MIDZ SPSX SQQQ TZA ULTA

Leftovers from prev. DWTI UCO RUSS VXX TVIX

DWTI and RUSS are 75% sold off at huge loss yesterday, got UCO as a hedge

VXX and TVIX are the only holdings that didn't kill me yesterday

 
humpback said:
last half hour overall wasn't very fun.

yeesh
The list i gave you earlier returned about 50% today. I only got about 30, since i held overnight and had higher basis. This morning's really was a great buying opportunity for inverse etfs.I continue to believe the next few weeks will be bearish and volatile. I'm up 23% in the last 5 days, including a lot of really poorly timed ins and outs
Update? (not rubbing it in, genuinely curious)
Still believe, but I went from +23K to -9K so far this week.

Today's new holdings: AMGN DXD FAZ MIDZ SPSX SQQQ TZA ULTA

Leftovers from prev. DWTI UCO RUSS VXX TVIX

DWTI and RUSS are 75% sold off at huge loss yesterday, got UCO as a hedge

VXX and TVIX are the only holdings that didn't kill me yesterday
Now this is gambling. :yes:

 
Yes it is. But its like betting on a football game that's tied for 3 .5 quarters, then one team scores 50 points.

You know its going to explode today at some point, but who knows when or which direction?

 
Is there a good resource out there to see what's going on with oil in real time? Predictions on where it's going or actual live data on where it's trending/is?

cos and I are in the same boat with a lot of stuff here and it would be helpful to be aware.

Thanks

 
humpback said:
last half hour overall wasn't very fun.

yeesh
The list i gave you earlier returned about 50% today. I only got about 30, since i held overnight and had higher basis. This morning's really was a great buying opportunity for inverse etfs.I continue to believe the next few weeks will be bearish and volatile. I'm up 23% in the last 5 days, including a lot of really poorly timed ins and outs
Update? (not rubbing it in, genuinely curious)
Still believe, but I went from +23K to -9K so far this week.

Today's new holdings: AMGN DXD FAZ MIDZ SPSX SQQQ TZA ULTA

Leftovers from prev. DWTI UCO RUSS VXX TVIX

DWTI and RUSS are 75% sold off at huge loss yesterday, got UCO as a hedge

VXX and TVIX are the only holdings that didn't kill me yesterday
Now this is gambling. :yes:
Yes it is. I currently have a bet on YANG.

 
Is there a good resource out there to see what's going on with oil in real time? Predictions on where it's going or actual live data on where it's trending/is?

cos and I are in the same boat with a lot of stuff here and it would be helpful to be aware.

Thanks
Oil doesn't really trade like stocks. I mean it does and it doesn't. But you won't get some sort of screen that says 100 ask@45 200 bid @44 just rolling down the screen. People do actually shockingly execute contracts on the stuff.

The "WTI" spot price is just pulling a number out of someone's ###. If you want to know up to date options stuff look at EOM futures and some other key dates. Those actually have trades that track like stocks.

 
Today's gambles

TVIX 2X volatility

SQQQ inverse Nasdaq

SDS inverse S&P

RUSS inverse Russia

FXP inverse China

FAZ inverse financial

EEV inverse emerging mkts

 
Had an interesting conversation with a guy last week RE: 3D printing. He's someone in a position to know tons about it, and his basic message was, "Yes, it's really cool in theory. But aside from the medical applications, which ARE huge, they can't make it cost-effective enough to compete with traditional manufacturing. I would never give investment advice. These companies could be around a long time and make a lot of people a lot of money, but at some point in the not too distant future, somebody is going to be left holding the bag on some of these 3D printing stocks."

 
Had an interesting conversation with a guy last week RE: 3D printing. He's someone in a position to know tons about it, and his basic message was, "Yes, it's really cool in theory. But aside from the medical applications, which ARE huge, they can't make it cost-effective enough to compete with traditional manufacturing. I would never give investment advice. These companies could be around a long time and make a lot of people a lot of money, but at some point in the not too distant future, somebody is going to be left holding the bag on some of these 3D printing stocks."
So you are telling me I won't be able to carry a 3D printer onto a plane, print myself a gun and hijack it?

 
Had an interesting conversation with a guy last week RE: 3D printing. He's someone in a position to know tons about it, and his basic message was, "Yes, it's really cool in theory. But aside from the medical applications, which ARE huge, they can't make it cost-effective enough to compete with traditional manufacturing. I would never give investment advice. These companies could be around a long time and make a lot of people a lot of money, but at some point in the not too distant future, somebody is going to be left holding the bag on some of these 3D printing stocks."
I can't say he's wrong, but it's happened before.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stupid-tech-quotes-2013-4?op=1

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." –Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society in 1895

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." –Daryl Zanuck, co-founder of 20th Century Fox

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." –IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home." –Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corporation in 1977

 
Had an interesting conversation with a guy last week RE: 3D printing. He's someone in a position to know tons about it, and his basic message was, "Yes, it's really cool in theory. But aside from the medical applications, which ARE huge, they can't make it cost-effective enough to compete with traditional manufacturing. I would never give investment advice. These companies could be around a long time and make a lot of people a lot of money, but at some point in the not too distant future, somebody is going to be left holding the bag on some of these 3D printing stocks."
I can't say he's wrong, but it's happened before.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stupid-tech-quotes-2013-4?op=1

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." –Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society in 1895

"Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." –Daryl Zanuck, co-founder of 20th Century Fox

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." –IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home." –Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corporation in 1977
Proof you can be really stupid and still be at the top of corporate America.

 
:shrug:

If he is, he is. I've made some money off DDD, and until recently it was something I wanted to hold. He's been involved in the industry and is someone I've come to know as having an informed opinion. When he chooses to share it, I generally give it some consideration.

If people choose to ignore the thoughts of anonymous source shared by anonymous guy on the innerwebs, they're probably going to come out ahead more often than not.

 
:shrug:

If he is, he is. I've made some money off DDD, and until recently it was something I wanted to hold. He's been involved in the industry and is someone I've come to know as having an informed opinion. When he chooses to share it, I generally give it some consideration.

If people choose to ignore the thoughts of anonymous source shared by anonymous guy on the innerwebs, they're probably going to come out ahead more often than not.
he certainly could be right, 3D printing could be a fad or it might just never have widespread application. Even if it does, DDD could be the beta to another company's VHS. still, I think the risk is worthwhile. Wouldn't invest my life's savings or kids college funds in it (wouldn't do that in any individual stock anyway) but a few thousand in my Roth? Sure.

 

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