shady inc
Footballguy
Thought and prayers to you siffoin.
Thought and prayers to you siffoin.
Thanks for the input Siff, much appreciated. As much as I want to continue gambling on individual stocks, it's a compulsive habit, and I'd be better suited with your strategy.I honestly don't have anything to recommend. I'm just a simple trend follower. Gaps, patterns all that stuff---it's just never made sense to me. Heck trying to figure out if price is generally going up or is price generally going down is hard enough without throwing in head and shoulder patterns etc. I've spent years trying to figure out trends and most of the time I'm a little bit better than 50% right.Hey Siff,
Would you recommend any particular reading for learning about trends, gaps, patterns, etc? Also interested in commodity trading strategies.
Gracias!
I'm not a commodity trader either. I do trade emini futures. Even that is not as simple as it seems. If you could capture 2 pts each day on the SP500 emini futures - 10 points a week-. How hard could that be to do? One might think really really easy. But the answer is actually really really difficult. I still think it's an endeavour worth exploring.
As I said last week. Any individual stock seems like such a gamble these days- and I think $SPY is good enough for the majority of ones portfolio and minimizes the "gamble" risk individual stocks carry. Combined with a few long shots, a few dividend funds, a little in futures and if you are smart and "strategeric" you will exceed your investing goals. Focus on the trend with just a few stocks and sectors. Have a method for determining when to buy and sell. Stick with that method. Review and revise.
I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
I'm sure there are great books out there for charting and stock pattern analysis. But in the end - like everything else - understanding stock charts takes hundreds - thousands of hours of staring at stock charts. It's tedious and boring work. But will give you a slight edge over a coin flip. Even at coin flip odds you can be successful with smart money management.
This is why I have had every test known to man, done on me. CAT scan of brain, kidneys, colonoscopy, whatever it called checking down the throat, and of course the test to see if I have any blockage in my heart. I pay my share for insurance and a ####load of losers are getting it all for free on my dime, so I'm getting my money's worth. I am good to go.I think I've posted the basics of this. A year ago I was just an "AVERAGE" guy in my late 40's. A couple of months from burring my 97 year old grand mother who passed away in her own house 2 years after my grandfather passed away at 95 in that same house. That's what I figured my life would be. Time on my side.In that case I recommend getting to 6mil so you can have cocaine parties and 2 chicks every night in your Belize beach house.Most of the things I post in here are gentle reminders to myself.IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
Let me say this. Collectively and individually our future is unknown.
"Most" people don't have ANY savings. Not everyone wants to retire in the same way either. Some of us might face illness or disability before we could ever expect. Random, unexpected and and life changing events happen everyday. On average loss has equal odds as gain. On average - YOUR life will not be.
How one addresses this truth in regards to their retirement is up to them.![]()
At the time, I was recovering from a minor surgery, but at that point was up and getting active. No issue whatsoever.
One Saturday evening I suddenly lost most of the vision in my left eye. It was like a curtain closed. One second I could see and the next second it was gone. I thought to myself- I've had a lot stress and am tired and just went to bed. The next day the vision was still gone. 48 hours later I was concerned.
The initial diagnosis was that I had a detached retina, and I would need a surgery to repair that. I thought "well there goes the rest of my golf season." So I went to a retina specialist. He came into the room and said "well the good news is you don't have a detached retina. The bad news is that you've had a stroke and an occluded artery in your eye. The vision loss is permanent. And you need to get to a cardiologist now to figure out what is going on."
That week was a bunch of cardio tests. It was quite stressful. On Thursday afternoon I got a call from the cardiologist who said "I have an emergency appointment set for you in 15 minutes with a vascular surgeon and a neurologist. You need to get to that office RIGHT NOW!"
My wife wasn't home and my kid was in school...so I just went to the hospital. When I got there...you could tell it was serious. I didn't even fill out paperwork. It was "the doctors are waiting for you."
The docs told me that there was a major issue with my carotid artery and that I needed to go to the hospital right now for a CT scan and that they both (vascular and neuro) expected to perform surgery to repair it now. They said "you need to prepare yourself."
The walk from that office to the hospital was about 2 blocks and let me tell you...it was a lonely walk. I didn't know what to expect, and my wife wasn't there...my kid didn't know. I hope no one ever has to take a walk like that...but your life comes to perspective really quick. I was totally alone.
The CT scan found that I had a dissected carotid artery. Literally a 1:1000000 event. At the time they decided against surgery, and thought the dissection would heal on its own. And that's where I've been for a year. However...I just had a MRA a week ago and the artery is still dissected and they're trying to determine whether to put in a stint to repair the artery or not. There are risks both ways.
By and large I'm mostly fine. I can do everything I did before - except mountain bike - it's just too risky. Any falls or any accident probably wouldn't be good for my outlook. But at the same time you have to live life, and I do.
But the point I'm trying to make is that 13 months ago the odds would have favored me to live a long long time. Today not so much.
You never know what cards you are going to be dealt. Losing sight in one eye for sure sucks...But it could have been a lot worse. The stroke could have gone to my brain, killed me or disabled me in a much more significant way than just a loss of on eye. Unfortunately, I'm not financially prepared to care for a disabled self and my family without income for the next 30 years had that happened.
And that's my point. You just never know. Sure you might live to your 90's - living it up - uneventful to the end. But the unexpected might happen too. And it might be better to prepare for more than what you think you might expect you'll ever need.
Best call of my life.RLYP seems like easy money tomorrow
I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
This is well known and studied. In fact, if you go to firecalc and do some projections one of the spending models you can choose is Bernicke's Reality spending plan, which decreases as you age. I also have it as a knob in the spreadsheet I made for retirement planning.I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
So many elderly people are at or below the poverty line... it's almost sad to see except that you realize they are simply paying for sins past in not savings their money and investing it properly.
I've seen so many of those people in my office that it's become a personal mission to never end up like that.
On the other side of the coin, I think that spending in retirement could go up initially in your late 50's... 60's... early 70's... but at some point you're not going to feel like doing as much traveling.. and if you eat out it will be at early bird dinner times.
My grandfather is 88.. he doesn't spend much money even though he has it to spend... most of his friends are dead... his wife is dead... he does a lot more TV/reading, inexpensive things these days.... he used to travel extensively and golf a lot.. that goes away.
Despite a healthy nest egg, social security adequately pays for most of his living
Inflation adjusted? Yeah, think so if you're starting at 60-65 or so. Inflation adjusted IMO 2M gets you out of the rat race at 50-55.I always wonder about this. I used to think that $1.5MM cash and no debt would be good. Now i don't know. I will never see SS (39 - i doubt it lasts until I am able to cash in) so i will be 100% dependent on my savings. At $1.5MM let's say i can earn an average dividend of 6% - that's $90M per year of fun money (tax not figured into the equation) without ever touching the prin. Is $90M enough? In 20-25 years who the heck knows what that will get me. I don't have kids so i don't really need to save the prin so that can fill any shortage. I think i will be okay - i do like very expensive things (sports cars, wine, meals, etc) so we'll see.
I saw a show 5-6 years ago that replayed a bunch of politicians in the 70's demanding oil independence for the U.S. If you remember the lines for gas and how you could only fill up your car on certain days, you can understand why they were upset. Personally, I think this would be a very good thing. Just amazing how quickly they "forget". I don't know when it is going to happen, but there's going to be hell to pay for these low prices we are enjoying now.Classic was the Leno bit a few years back. Oil prices were high, but the pipeline wouldn't solve the problem because it would take 10 years to build. So he runs tape of politicians talking about the pipeline 10 years ago: "Oil prices are too low to make the pipeline feasible. Veto!"Love how Obama rejected Keystone because gas prices have fallen so there really isn't a need for oil. As if the prices of oil and gas by magic or something. #### I hate politicians.![]()
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The writing was on the wall 7 years ago on this. The song and dance was pretty transparent - no way this was ever going to get approved.I saw a show 5-6 years ago that replayed a bunch of politicians in the 70's demanding oil independence for the U.S. If you remember the lines for gas and how you could only fill up your car on certain days, you can understand why they were upset. Personally, I think this would be a very good thing. Just amazing how quickly they "forget". I don't know when it is going to happen, but there's going to be hell to pay for these low prices we are enjoying now.Classic was the Leno bit a few years back. Oil prices were high, but the pipeline wouldn't solve the problem because it would take 10 years to build. So he runs tape of politicians talking about the pipeline 10 years ago: "Oil prices are too low to make the pipeline feasible. Veto!"Love how Obama rejected Keystone because gas prices have fallen so there really isn't a need for oil. As if the prices of oil and gas by magic or something. #### I hate politicians.![]()
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Thanks for the tip.St Louis Bob, GB you for holding ELTP. I think it eventually runs to a penny or two. If I had only held, I'd have hit on a double, with potential for a 5 or 10 bagger. Just can't convince myself to get back in at this price point. I was a dummy
For selling. Solid company! Congrats.
Thinking of going in LARGE on UWTI in the low 9's and holding long term. EZ Green!
What's the word on silver?Sold 1220 of ELTP at .41 for a profit of $195, 66% gain. Effectively giving me 800 "free" shares.
Just holding but may be buying more. Like I've said in the past, my time frame is years, not months.What's the word on silver?Sold 1220 of ELTP at .41 for a profit of $195, 66% gain. Effectively giving me 800 "free" shares.
Out at $23.02 for a profit of $750 or 15%.Bought 250 @ $20.01Out at $25.95 for a profit of $820 or 46%.I bought 100 NVCR or Friday @ $17.75. Sheesh, wish I would have bought 10,000.![]()
Oops - sorry - was drunk. Nice job getting free shares for the ride.Thanks for the tip.St Louis Bob, GB you for holding ELTP. I think it eventually runs to a penny or two. If I had only held, I'd have hit on a double, with potential for a 5 or 10 bagger. Just can't convince myself to get back in at this price point. I was a dummy
For selling. Solid company! Congrats.
Thinking of going in LARGE on UWTI in the low 9's and holding long term. EZ Green!![]()
Did you mean "dollar or two"? I hope?
It's up 66%, considering selling enough to get my initial $500 out and just holding the "free" shares.
Pure gamble here. If they keep production steady, you'll lose 10-15% in one day.Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Doubtful, everybody already thinks they are going to keep production steady.Pure gamble here. If they keep production steady, you'll lose 10-15% in one day.Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Good luck Bob!
My dad lived off a post office retirement of 32,000 until he died at 79. He never wanted for anything. He liked to golf and gamble at table games too. He had 5 figures in the bank when he died even with giving a ton of money to my sisters.I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
So many elderly people are at or below the poverty line... it's almost sad to see except that you realize they are simply paying for sins past in not savings their money and investing it properly.
I've seen so many of those people in my office that it's become a personal mission to never end up like that.
On the other side of the coin, I think that spending in retirement could go up initially in your late 50's... 60's... early 70's... but at some point you're not going to feel like doing as much traveling.. and if you eat out it will be at early bird dinner times.
My grandfather is 88.. he doesn't spend much money even though he has it to spend... most of his friends are dead... his wife is dead... he does a lot more TV/reading, inexpensive things these days.... he used to travel extensively and golf a lot.. that goes away.
Despite a healthy nest egg, social security adequately pays for most of his living
DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
So if it falls below $200, everyone should be on high alert?$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
$210-212 is resistance -
I wouldn't go that far. Sub-$200 would be concerning for sure. We're already oversold.So if it falls below $200, everyone should be on high alert?$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?DUDE!!!!!St. Louis Bob said:Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
$210-212 is resistance -
Big fan of FCX under 9. It has what I love in a stock: a big cap, a dividend, and lots of volatility to trade it often. Seems to waver between 9 and 11 a lot which is a nice 20% profit every iteration. And if it hovers for a while then at least you get a couple bucks on the dividend. Good luck.Bought some goodies today on sale.
500 shares of CHK @ 6.03
500 shares of FCX @ 8.46
1500 shares of GRPN @ 2.64
Too much upside for one of them not to give me multi bagger potential. Substantial risk for all though
Choo-Choo. This was probably the last best buy spot for 2015. We likely go to all-time highs from here.DUDE!!!!!Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
Choo-Choo. This was probably the last best buy spot for 2015. We likely go to all-time highs from here.DUDE!!!!!Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92
OPEC meets the first week of December.....
Can you here this.....
That's me pounding my fist on my desk.
$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
NiceRLYP I'm looking for another huge pop tomorrow. It was revealed that there were 6 companies bidding on buying out competitor ZSPH and one of them withdrew the offer the day after RLYP drug Veltassa was approved. Definite buyout candidate.