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Best wishes, Siff. I can't imagine what that must be like. Amazing how much we live in the past and future, and not in the moment. Let this be a reminder.

 
Hey Siff,

Would you recommend any particular reading for learning about trends, gaps, patterns, etc? Also interested in commodity trading strategies.

Gracias!
I honestly don't have anything to recommend. I'm just a simple trend follower. Gaps, patterns all that stuff---it's just never made sense to me. Heck trying to figure out if price is generally going up or is price generally going down is hard enough without throwing in head and shoulder patterns etc. I've spent years trying to figure out trends and most of the time I'm a little bit better than 50% right.

I'm not a commodity trader either. I do trade emini futures. Even that is not as simple as it seems. If you could capture 2 pts each day on the SP500 emini futures - 10 points a week-. How hard could that be to do? One might think really really easy. But the answer is actually really really difficult. I still think it's an endeavour worth exploring.

As I said last week. Any individual stock seems like such a gamble these days- and I think $SPY is good enough for the majority of ones portfolio and minimizes the "gamble" risk individual stocks carry. Combined with a few long shots, a few dividend funds, a little in futures and if you are smart and "strategeric" you will exceed your investing goals. Focus on the trend with just a few stocks and sectors. Have a method for determining when to buy and sell. Stick with that method. Review and revise.

I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.

I'm sure there are great books out there for charting and stock pattern analysis. But in the end - like everything else - understanding stock charts takes hundreds - thousands of hours of staring at stock charts. It's tedious and boring work. But will give you a slight edge over a coin flip. Even at coin flip odds you can be successful with smart money management.
Thanks for the input Siff, much appreciated. As much as I want to continue gambling on individual stocks, it's a compulsive habit, and I'd be better suited with your strategy.

 
I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.
Most of the things I post in here are gentle reminders to myself.

Let me say this. Collectively and individually our future is unknown.

"Most" people don't have ANY savings. Not everyone wants to retire in the same way either. Some of us might face illness or disability before we could ever expect. Random, unexpected and and life changing events happen everyday. On average loss has equal odds as gain. On average - YOUR life will not be.

How one addresses this truth in regards to their retirement is up to them.
In that case I recommend getting to 6mil so you can have cocaine parties and 2 chicks every night in your Belize beach house. :P
I think I've posted the basics of this. A year ago I was just an "AVERAGE" guy in my late 40's. A couple of months from burring my 97 year old grand mother who passed away in her own house 2 years after my grandfather passed away at 95 in that same house. That's what I figured my life would be. Time on my side.

At the time, I was recovering from a minor surgery, but at that point was up and getting active. No issue whatsoever.

One Saturday evening I suddenly lost most of the vision in my left eye. It was like a curtain closed. One second I could see and the next second it was gone. I thought to myself- I've had a lot stress and am tired and just went to bed. The next day the vision was still gone. 48 hours later I was concerned.

The initial diagnosis was that I had a detached retina, and I would need a surgery to repair that. I thought "well there goes the rest of my golf season." So I went to a retina specialist. He came into the room and said "well the good news is you don't have a detached retina. The bad news is that you've had a stroke and an occluded artery in your eye. The vision loss is permanent. And you need to get to a cardiologist now to figure out what is going on."

That week was a bunch of cardio tests. It was quite stressful. On Thursday afternoon I got a call from the cardiologist who said "I have an emergency appointment set for you in 15 minutes with a vascular surgeon and a neurologist. You need to get to that office RIGHT NOW!"

My wife wasn't home and my kid was in school...so I just went to the hospital. When I got there...you could tell it was serious. I didn't even fill out paperwork. It was "the doctors are waiting for you."

The docs told me that there was a major issue with my carotid artery and that I needed to go to the hospital right now for a CT scan and that they both (vascular and neuro) expected to perform surgery to repair it now. They said "you need to prepare yourself."

The walk from that office to the hospital was about 2 blocks and let me tell you...it was a lonely walk. I didn't know what to expect, and my wife wasn't there...my kid didn't know. I hope no one ever has to take a walk like that...but your life comes to perspective really quick. I was totally alone.

The CT scan found that I had a dissected carotid artery. Literally a 1:1000000 event. At the time they decided against surgery, and thought the dissection would heal on its own. And that's where I've been for a year. However...I just had a MRA a week ago and the artery is still dissected and they're trying to determine whether to put in a stint to repair the artery or not. There are risks both ways.

By and large I'm mostly fine. I can do everything I did before - except mountain bike - it's just too risky. Any falls or any accident probably wouldn't be good for my outlook. But at the same time you have to live life, and I do.

But the point I'm trying to make is that 13 months ago the odds would have favored me to live a long long time. Today not so much.

You never know what cards you are going to be dealt. Losing sight in one eye for sure sucks...But it could have been a lot worse. The stroke could have gone to my brain, killed me or disabled me in a much more significant way than just a loss of on eye. Unfortunately, I'm not financially prepared to care for a disabled self and my family without income for the next 30 years had that happened.

And that's my point. You just never know. Sure you might live to your 90's - living it up - uneventful to the end. But the unexpected might happen too. And it might be better to prepare for more than what you think you might expect you'll ever need.
This is why I have had every test known to man, done on me. CAT scan of brain, kidneys, colonoscopy, whatever it called checking down the throat, and of course the test to see if I have any blockage in my heart. I pay my share for insurance and a ####load of losers are getting it all for free on my dime, so I'm getting my money's worth. I am good to go.

 
271,000 jobs added in October. Futures head south. That's comical. Good news is bad news for the market. Fact is they are raising rates and they need to. We should be off to the moon after the idiots digest this great news.

 
Peter Schiff is such a loser and quite angry that he missed the bull market completely.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-schiff-going-horrible-christmas-120000472.html

"I expect [job] layoffs to start picking up by the end of the year," Schiff said, pointing to retailers as the first victim. "Retailers have overestimated the ability of their customers to buy their products. Americans are broke. They are loaded up with debt," he said. "We're teetering on the edge of an official recession," and "the labor market is softening."

Not sure about the rest of you but I'm not broke and I'm not loaded up with debt.

Pretty much called the bottom. - Peter Schiff: The market's 'pipe dream' is ending - http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/25/

 
Love how Obama rejected Keystone because gas prices have fallen so there really isn't a need for oil. As if the prices of oil and gas by magic or something. #### I hate politicians. :lmao:

 
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So - BAC has had a huge run up over the last month. I have always said that i would be out if it hit $18. Is anyone following this financial institutions?

 
I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.
I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.
I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.

So many elderly people are at or below the poverty line... it's almost sad to see except that you realize they are simply paying for sins past in not savings their money and investing it properly.

I've seen so many of those people in my office that it's become a personal mission to never end up like that.

On the other side of the coin, I think that spending in retirement could go up initially in your late 50's... 60's... early 70's... but at some point you're not going to feel like doing as much traveling.. and if you eat out it will be at early bird dinner times.

My grandfather is 88.. he doesn't spend much money even though he has it to spend... most of his friends are dead... his wife is dead... he does a lot more TV/reading, inexpensive things these days.... he used to travel extensively and golf a lot.. that goes away.

Despite a healthy nest egg, social security adequately pays for most of his living

 
I always wonder about this. I used to think that $1.5MM cash and no debt would be good. Now i don't know. I will never see SS (39 - i doubt it lasts until I am able to cash in) so i will be 100% dependent on my savings. At $1.5MM let's say i can earn an average dividend of 6% - that's $90M per year of fun money (tax not figured into the equation) without ever touching the prin. Is $90M enough? In 20-25 years who the heck knows what that will get me. I don't have kids so i don't really need to save the prin so that can fill any shortage. I think i will be okay - i do like very expensive things (sports cars, wine, meals, etc) so we'll see.

 
I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.
I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.
I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.

So many elderly people are at or below the poverty line... it's almost sad to see except that you realize they are simply paying for sins past in not savings their money and investing it properly.

I've seen so many of those people in my office that it's become a personal mission to never end up like that.

On the other side of the coin, I think that spending in retirement could go up initially in your late 50's... 60's... early 70's... but at some point you're not going to feel like doing as much traveling.. and if you eat out it will be at early bird dinner times.

My grandfather is 88.. he doesn't spend much money even though he has it to spend... most of his friends are dead... his wife is dead... he does a lot more TV/reading, inexpensive things these days.... he used to travel extensively and golf a lot.. that goes away.

Despite a healthy nest egg, social security adequately pays for most of his living
This is well known and studied. In fact, if you go to firecalc and do some projections one of the spending models you can choose is Bernicke's Reality spending plan, which decreases as you age. I also have it as a knob in the spreadsheet I made for retirement planning.

I always wonder about this. I used to think that $1.5MM cash and no debt would be good. Now i don't know. I will never see SS (39 - i doubt it lasts until I am able to cash in) so i will be 100% dependent on my savings. At $1.5MM let's say i can earn an average dividend of 6% - that's $90M per year of fun money (tax not figured into the equation) without ever touching the prin. Is $90M enough? In 20-25 years who the heck knows what that will get me. I don't have kids so i don't really need to save the prin so that can fill any shortage. I think i will be okay - i do like very expensive things (sports cars, wine, meals, etc) so we'll see.
Inflation adjusted? Yeah, think so if you're starting at 60-65 or so. Inflation adjusted IMO 2M gets you out of the rat race at 50-55.

 
Love how Obama rejected Keystone because gas prices have fallen so there really isn't a need for oil. As if the prices of oil and gas by magic or something. #### I hate politicians. :lmao:
Classic was the Leno bit a few years back. Oil prices were high, but the pipeline wouldn't solve the problem because it would take 10 years to build. So he runs tape of politicians talking about the pipeline 10 years ago: "Oil prices are too low to make the pipeline feasible. Veto!"

:wall:
I saw a show 5-6 years ago that replayed a bunch of politicians in the 70's demanding oil independence for the U.S. If you remember the lines for gas and how you could only fill up your car on certain days, you can understand why they were upset. Personally, I think this would be a very good thing. Just amazing how quickly they "forget". I don't know when it is going to happen, but there's going to be hell to pay for these low prices we are enjoying now.

 
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Love how Obama rejected Keystone because gas prices have fallen so there really isn't a need for oil. As if the prices of oil and gas by magic or something. #### I hate politicians. :lmao:
Classic was the Leno bit a few years back. Oil prices were high, but the pipeline wouldn't solve the problem because it would take 10 years to build. So he runs tape of politicians talking about the pipeline 10 years ago: "Oil prices are too low to make the pipeline feasible. Veto!"

:wall:
I saw a show 5-6 years ago that replayed a bunch of politicians in the 70's demanding oil independence for the U.S. If you remember the lines for gas and how you could only fill up your car on certain days, you can understand why they were upset. Personally, I think this would be a very good thing. Just amazing how quickly they "forget". I don't know when it is going to happen, but there's going to be hell to pay for these low prices we are enjoying now.
The writing was on the wall 7 years ago on this. The song and dance was pretty transparent - no way this was ever going to get approved.

And I agree we're going to pay for this at some point. I don't know when (I wish I did, could retire pretty easy), but there will be a snap back.

 
St Louis Bob, GB you for holding ELTP. I think it eventually runs to a penny or two. If I had only held, I'd have hit on a double, with potential for a 5 or 10 bagger. Just can't convince myself to get back in at this price point. I was a dummy

For selling. Solid company! Congrats.

Thinking of going in LARGE on UWTI in the low 9's and holding long term. EZ Green!

 
St Louis Bob, GB you for holding ELTP. I think it eventually runs to a penny or two. If I had only held, I'd have hit on a double, with potential for a 5 or 10 bagger. Just can't convince myself to get back in at this price point. I was a dummy

For selling. Solid company! Congrats.

Thinking of going in LARGE on UWTI in the low 9's and holding long term. EZ Green!
Thanks for the tip. :hifive:

Did you mean "dollar or two"? I hope?

It's up 66%, considering selling enough to get my initial $500 out and just holding the "free" shares.

 
St Louis Bob, GB you for holding ELTP. I think it eventually runs to a penny or two. If I had only held, I'd have hit on a double, with potential for a 5 or 10 bagger. Just can't convince myself to get back in at this price point. I was a dummy

For selling. Solid company! Congrats.

Thinking of going in LARGE on UWTI in the low 9's and holding long term. EZ Green!
Thanks for the tip. :hifive:

Did you mean "dollar or two"? I hope?

It's up 66%, considering selling enough to get my initial $500 out and just holding the "free" shares.
Oops - sorry - was drunk. Nice job getting free shares for the ride.

 
Bob - Based on your positions, you're clearly pretty bullish on oil - I'm trying to see the bull case here, but really struggle to find it.

I'm wondering what your school of thought here is? Is it demand going up, production going down? I mean, I see in the weekly reports US production is reducing slightly, but I don't know if that's enough for a major turnaround in the short term.

Not trying to be combative - In comparison to other positions you hold, this one seems like a bigger bet, so obviously you really believe here, just trying to understand why?

I've played heavily in oil on both sides, but right now I'm completely on the sidelines. Just to give you the opposite perspective bc I think it is always good to see another viewpoint, this would be my bear case:

- Iran oil, I think they're going to have more than anticipated, regardless it'll be a lot.

- Sluggish economic growth worldwide, we aren't expanding like we've been for the last 5 years. Demand will level off in the near term.

- OPEC not reducing output (If this changes, obviously a reversal is in the works)

- US technology continues to improve production while reducing costs. So even as rig counts fall, production falling (while dropping slightly) lags behind

- Stockpiles continuing to grow

 
I think people are going to need much more for retirement than they think....MUCH MORE. And I think a retirement portfolio only benchmarked to the SP500 will not be nearly enough. So we need to figure out how and when to take small calculated high risks and succeed more times than not if we really want to get there.
IMO this is a bit of fear mongering. It takes less than most people think to retire, on average.
I think this also comes down to lifestyle. I enjoy driving a nice car, living in a nice neighborhood, eating at nice restaurants, going on vacations, and having a healthy amount of disposable income. I don't want to give this up when I retire, in fact almost the opposite, I'll want to indulge more. I think I'll need to outright own my home and have about $6-$8M in the bank to do this in my 60's. I'll need my assets to safely generate 4-5% at 65 to accomplish my goals.
I do think it takes a lot of money to retire to a decent lifestyle.

So many elderly people are at or below the poverty line... it's almost sad to see except that you realize they are simply paying for sins past in not savings their money and investing it properly.

I've seen so many of those people in my office that it's become a personal mission to never end up like that.

On the other side of the coin, I think that spending in retirement could go up initially in your late 50's... 60's... early 70's... but at some point you're not going to feel like doing as much traveling.. and if you eat out it will be at early bird dinner times.

My grandfather is 88.. he doesn't spend much money even though he has it to spend... most of his friends are dead... his wife is dead... he does a lot more TV/reading, inexpensive things these days.... he used to travel extensively and golf a lot.. that goes away.

Despite a healthy nest egg, social security adequately pays for most of his living
My dad lived off a post office retirement of 32,000 until he died at 79. He never wanted for anything. He liked to golf and gamble at table games too. He had 5 figures in the bank when he died even with giving a ton of money to my sisters.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?

$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
:bag:

I just bought 150 at $18.12 for 2025 at $28.12. I guess I have checked in here first.

I have a LARGE amount of long term capital gains to offset for 2015 so my plan is to sell the shares I bought early in the plummet before the end of the year if (when) oil doesn't recover. So the loss sucks terribly but it isn't as bad as it looks here.

I hope you are feeling better, GB.

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?

$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.

$210-212 is resistance -

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?

$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.

$210-212 is resistance -
So if it falls below $200, everyone should be on high alert?

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
What is the range of major support/resistance here Siff?

$203-$204 is support, is the all time high the biggest resistance?
$203 is support. We can go a little below that but not much. It needs to hold because if it doesn't then it really opens the door for a failed bull trend and bad things. I think it holds.

$210-212 is resistance -
So if it falls below $200, everyone should be on high alert?
I wouldn't go that far. Sub-$200 would be concerning for sure. We're already oversold.

The more important thing is this:

If we believe the market trend is bullish then---

We Want To Take Advantage of Coordinated Selloffs to Areas of Support To Initiate New Buys.

At this point that's what we have right here.

A market that was extremely overbought relieving those conditions by selling off to an area of major support on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. It's a "safe" and "ideal" place for an add in a new bull market as you'll find. (It might go a little lower here but I always consider support and resistance zones not lines in the sand)

Sure it's possible that this newly formed bull market is a major fakeout within a much larger bear market- but I think we have to place low odds on that being the case. And if that does come true you just adjust when that information is confirmed.

Edit: I think it's really risky to buy ANY stock right now. When $XYZ is at an all-time low and the general market is bullish - that's NOT an investment to buy. That's a longshot gamble and likely loser. Just buy the $SPY. When this Bull market finishes whenever that is - I think we're going to find that the house of cards is worse than that. But that storm is off in the distance for now so take advantage.

 
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Bought some goodies today on sale.

500 shares of CHK @ 6.03

500 shares of FCX @ 8.46

1500 shares of GRPN @ 2.64

Too much upside for one of them not to give me multi bagger potential. Substantial risk for all though

 
Bought some goodies today on sale.

500 shares of CHK @ 6.03

500 shares of FCX @ 8.46

1500 shares of GRPN @ 2.64

Too much upside for one of them not to give me multi bagger potential. Substantial risk for all though
Big fan of FCX under 9. It has what I love in a stock: a big cap, a dividend, and lots of volatility to trade it often. Seems to waver between 9 and 11 a lot which is a nice 20% profit every iteration. And if it hovers for a while then at least you get a couple bucks on the dividend. Good luck.

 
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
Choo-Choo. This was probably the last best buy spot for 2015. We likely go to all-time highs from here.

 
Added 175 UCO today @ $20.07 for 1875 @ $28.92

OPEC meets the first week of December.....
DUDE!!!!!

Can you here this.....

That's me pounding my fist on my desk.

$SPY probably has a little lower to go but this area from $203-04 is pretty major support. We're gone from overbought to oversold in the past week on the daily charts. I'm buying it as I think the spot is good risk:reward. Failure here would not be good for the overall market trend.
Choo-Choo. This was probably the last best buy spot for 2015. We likely go to all-time highs from here.
:towelwave:

 
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RLYP I'm looking for another huge pop tomorrow. It was revealed that there were 6 companies bidding on buying out competitor ZSPH and one of them withdrew the offer the day after RLYP drug Veltassa was approved. Definite buyout candidate.

 

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