Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Outside of 100 shares of KM that were bought Friday, I'm out of energy stocks. I took a beating on BTE, and sold today after taking a 25% loss. #### this sector, and good luck to anyone projecting when the bleeding is going stop.
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm still absolutely ready to push all in at WTI=$32. I'm patient, I can wait until the summer if I have to. 100% confident this will whipsaw from there and fund all the coke and whores I could ever want for life.
siffoin
Footballguy
Just a reminder post.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...Leaving it in my Roth, as I really can't see it going much lower. Yield is still over 10% even with their divy cut.
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
John Bender
Footballguy
I really can't do anything with my UCO at this point. It's nearing worthless anyway. 
What are people looking at in the energy stocks right now? Waiting?
What are people looking at in the energy stocks right now? Waiting?
culdeus
Footballguy
Problem here is that at prices touching on $32 all the 6-year plays in North Dakota and Texas, and lots of the rehab plays in the water can't even pay enough to keep the lights on. They have to just shut it down, and the banks have to come in and usually will simply sell off the assets and cap the wells.Just a reminder post.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
This is what the Saudi's are after and they have a big enough knob to do it. The 80-100 year plays, the ones that pay the bills for the midstream guys aren't going anywhere. So that's where the support is. The level at which VZ and US production hits the 80 year play stream. That number is nearly to the dot $32.00. Anything below that needs to be bought, on margin if you have to because these 6 year plays can't be turned back on overnight, and if this keeps going like it's going nobody will be in the industry to flip the switch back on till oil hits 100.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Good time to buy energy stocks later this month after all the tax loss selling takes place.I really can't do anything with my UCO at this point. It's nearing worthless anyway.
What are people looking at in the energy stocks right now? Waiting?
James Daulton
Footballguy
That's a lot of coke and a lot of whores my friend. You better start saving now just in case.
siffoin
Footballguy
I didn't disagree with anyone last year when they said oil stocks were a great buy...just that the trend was extremely bearish. It still is.Problem here is that at prices touching on $32 all the 6-year plays in North Dakota and Texas, and lots of the rehab plays in the water can't even pay enough to keep the lights on. They have to just shut it down, and the banks have to come in and usually will simply sell off the assets and cap the wells.Just a reminder post.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
This is what the Saudi's are after and they have a big enough knob to do it. The 80-100 year plays, the ones that pay the bills for the midstream guys aren't going anywhere. So that's where the support is. The level at which VZ and US production hits the 80 year play stream. That number is nearly to the dot $32.00. Anything below that needs to be bought, on margin if you have to because these 6 year plays can't be turned back on overnight, and if this keeps going like it's going nobody will be in the industry to flip the switch back on till oil hits 100.
I think your thesis is quite valid too. In fact I jokingly stated as much last year on the "is cheap oil good for the US" thread.
Can you better explain the underlined.
culdeus
Footballguy
Most of the plays that supported the oil energy were quick plays that relied on oil at >60 to make a killing. They also had very short windows. The depletion on these newer wells was running like 6 years. So If you only have a 6 year well and prices get to a certain point you can't pay to keep the lights on let alone staff the site. These short wells are a huge driver in our production right now and could completely evaporate, not just due to depletion due to insolvency.I didn't disagree with anyone last year when they said oil stocks were a great buy...just that the trend was extremely bearish. It still is.Problem here is that at prices touching on $32 all the 6-year plays in North Dakota and Texas, and lots of the rehab plays in the water can't even pay enough to keep the lights on. They have to just shut it down, and the banks have to come in and usually will simply sell off the assets and cap the wells.Just a reminder post.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
This is what the Saudi's are after and they have a big enough knob to do it. The 80-100 year plays, the ones that pay the bills for the midstream guys aren't going anywhere. So that's where the support is. The level at which VZ and US production hits the 80 year play stream. That number is nearly to the dot $32.00. Anything below that needs to be bought, on margin if you have to because these 6 year plays can't be turned back on overnight, and if this keeps going like it's going nobody will be in the industry to flip the switch back on till oil hits 100.
I think your thesis is quite valid too. In fact I jokingly stated as much last year on the "is cheap oil good for the US" thread.
Can you better explain the underlined.
Other longer plays that went in around the 70s have 30-60 years of production left and they will just keep pumping, for all intents, forever.
So if you squash the short term plays and leave the long term plays plus Saudi on at whatever it takes to kill the short term plays, you get basically $32 which is roughly +/- a few bucks the price at which most of the world's production that came online prior to all the new stuff (fracking, horizontal) needs. And all the Saudis want is to push these short plays which need a much higher price out so they can be more in control. And it's working.
They just slashed their dividend by 75%. Even at these low prices it's only yielding ~3.5% now.KMI just issues a press release stating they are good to go on 6-10% dividend increases for next year. The stock is off 9% today. Pure, blind panic here.7% down every day it seems like. I have a little bit and see no reason to offload at this point. It will boomerang at some point - its DCF is still growing. This isn't going away, but the panic here is insane. At the rate it has been going down in the last couple weeks it would hit zero before Christmas.Aaaaand now down 30%.I have to decide whether I want to sell Kinder Morgan on this lift, while I'm only down 20%.
BTW I just love days like this when everything is red. Heck, TLT was as bad or worse than most equities and equity ETFs. Oh, wait, PM was up .05%. Whew - smoke 'em if you got 'em!
John Bender
Footballguy
Anyone familiar with LXU?
Involved in a class action lawsuit can't be a good thing but seems all new management brought in and they are still securing money to operate and good value.
Not sure if anyone was familiar with the saga here. Came as a recommendation from someone I trust based on it's current price to buy and hold.
Involved in a class action lawsuit can't be a good thing but seems all new management brought in and they are still securing money to operate and good value.
Not sure if anyone was familiar with the saga here. Came as a recommendation from someone I trust based on it's current price to buy and hold.
Sand
Footballguy
I'll just cry into my beer. Only a couple k lost, but very disappointed here. No point in selling now - this should be the low point.They just slashed their dividend by 75%. Even at these low prices it's only yielding ~3.5% now.KMI just issues a press release stating they are good to go on 6-10% dividend increases for next year. The stock is off 9% today. Pure, blind panic here.7% down every day it seems like. I have a little bit and see no reason to offload at this point. It will boomerang at some point - its DCF is still growing. This isn't going away, but the panic here is insane. At the rate it has been going down in the last couple weeks it would hit zero before Christmas.Aaaaand now down 30%.I have to decide whether I want to sell Kinder Morgan on this lift, while I'm only down 20%.
BTW I just love days like this when everything is red. Heck, TLT was as bad or worse than most equities and equity ETFs. Oh, wait, PM was up .05%. Whew - smoke 'em if you got 'em!
Vincesanity
Footballguy
Cutting the dividend is what they needed to do. It makes it more attractive to me actually, will be my next purchase.
John Bender
Footballguy
Ok...finally thinking of selling this UCO.
This is getting ridiculous.
Any speculation on what happens from here with Oil? Or some reading you can point me in the direction of?
tia
This is getting ridiculous.
Any speculation on what happens from here with Oil? Or some reading you can point me in the direction of?
tia
culdeus
Footballguy
As before I think oil will trade below 30 on momentum but will settle in at or around 32 for a period of time until the Saudis are happy that non opec production is driven down to the levels where they control the supply. That could take 6 months, that could take 2 years, but in the meantime the floor will hold right about there and you can collect sick yield in the meantime and wait for the equity components to rise once Saudi decides it's ok to slow down a bit.
siffoin
Footballguy
Short Term: $SPY on a daily chart is now Over-sold. In the past this typically means a bottom is near...often within 1-3 days.
If we don't bottom and soon - the larger bullish trend is at risk and the back and forth whipsaws of 2015 might suggest that something far worse is in store for 2016. $SPY needs to be above $205 on the close of the month...if it doesn't it's likely that the $190 support level of the past 12-14 months will break and $170 is in play.
I'm Cautiously Optimistically Pessimistic...or Cautiously Pessimistically Optimistic. The entire market feels just like gambling with better odds in a casino. I don't see ideal setups anywhere.
If we don't bottom and soon - the larger bullish trend is at risk and the back and forth whipsaws of 2015 might suggest that something far worse is in store for 2016. $SPY needs to be above $205 on the close of the month...if it doesn't it's likely that the $190 support level of the past 12-14 months will break and $170 is in play.
I'm Cautiously Optimistically Pessimistic...or Cautiously Pessimistically Optimistic. The entire market feels just like gambling with better odds in a casino. I don't see ideal setups anywhere.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Nothing like having 80% of your Roth in cash... 
sbonomo
Footballguy
ML revised their outlook down for '16. There has to be a bottom somewhere but most analysts are beginning to show a flat '16 vs the rise in price from two-quarters ago. I still like the dividend payout on some of the big guys given the inherent discount built into the stock prices.John Bender said:
John Bender
Footballguy
Well...the good news of the day (for me).
I had been hanging on to a small bit of TVIX since October hoping for a day like today.
Finally...made a nice profit there.
In fact, timing TVIX correctly has been the only positives for me this year. smh
I may actually hold it until we find out what the fed is doing. I assume some volatility will be created with a hike (warranted or not).
I had been hanging on to a small bit of TVIX since October hoping for a day like today.
Finally...made a nice profit there.
In fact, timing TVIX correctly has been the only positives for me this year. smh
I may actually hold it until we find out what the fed is doing. I assume some volatility will be created with a hike (warranted or not).
Last edited by a moderator:
John Bender
Footballguy
Last thought for discussion...
If Wednesday's market gets spooked on the heels of a rate hike...
Any thoughts on some stocks to scoop up at the end of the day Wednesday? Maybe a strong stock that dips with the rest of the market?
Just looking for some entry point angles if things go sideways Wednesday afternoon.
Getting my account fully funded now in preparation but not sure where to look. Probably will use it as an opportunity to nab some Amazon
If Wednesday's market gets spooked on the heels of a rate hike...
Any thoughts on some stocks to scoop up at the end of the day Wednesday? Maybe a strong stock that dips with the rest of the market?
Just looking for some entry point angles if things go sideways Wednesday afternoon.
Getting my account fully funded now in preparation but not sure where to look. Probably will use it as an opportunity to nab some Amazon
Sand
Footballguy
Anything interest rate sensitive. REITs, banks, etc.
Though with the Fed teasing us for so long who knows what will happen if they do raise it. Market might finally sigh in relief and go into full reverse crash mode.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I think there is a great chance for a relief rally of rates are raised. The wording of the statement and Yellen's responses in press conference will definitely influence.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
John Bender
Footballguy
Tomorrow should be interesting for sure. Cant wait to finally sell any VIX Ive been holding
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Agree 100%
And it will be a dovish speech. I guarantee you hear the words "slow/gradual/blah blah blah" the whole time. In all reality, this hike is almost nothing, .25? I mean c'mon. & id bet heavily that after this one they won't hike for at least another 3 months. I'd wager heavily that no matter what happens and what is said, there is no chance rates are over 1% by the end of 2016.
John Bender
Footballguy
Got too greedy with TVIX and held through the slight surge this morning. Now it's getting crushed.
FML and F the Stock Market too
FML and F the Stock Market too
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Hope I'll find time to do this tomorrow. Life and has been more hectic than usual.
Sand
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
This guy has cash marginal cost at 38, that's a little higher than I've seen other places but this is a fantastic summary and explains all the forces here quite well.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Whitney Tilson, after his tirade that they were crooks and stock was going to zero, has covered his short in Lumber Liquidators. Says new information shows management did not know about the elevated formaldehyde levels after all which changes everything. Oh, okay.
Last edited by a moderator:
John Bender
Footballguy
Sold off my TVIX (A day too late) to buy some more oil at what I hope is the bottom this morning.
Anyone have any idea about what to do with FCX at this point? It's been a slow bleed and resistant to even move with the market.
Oh and....nice morning out there.
Anyone have any idea about what to do with FCX at this point? It's been a slow bleed and resistant to even move with the market.
Oh and....nice morning out there.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
JB - I think you'll get a lot of different and conflicting viewpoints in this thread, but I'm fairly confident that everyone from the novices to the full-time investors will all agree on one thing; "timing a top and bottom is one of the hardest things to do."
Why not just wait for the trend to change?
John Bender
Footballguy
Honestly, it's nice to have a little to offset my initial strike price. And my TVIX holdings were only $500 total and looking like they were going to bleed this week.
I'm sure I could have sat it out a bit longer, but in the grand scheme of my investment in UCO, this was a very small amount.
Brony
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
30 seconds to announce...
General Malaise
Footballguy
25 Bips. Raised rates. Unanimous.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Dow was up 80 points before the announcement, now down 40. strap up.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Up >100 now. May just bounce around pre-press conference.
siffoin
Footballguy
Give Todem the credit on this call.
I only purchased a 5 pack of the calls. I wound up selling 1 of them in the first 30 minutes of trading for close to $19 to substantially lower cost basis and eliminate the risk.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
culdeus
Footballguy
Remember, carry costs is nearly zero with interest rates where they are. This is why you will see massive layoffs in the energy sector and why lower interest rates have really strange effects sometimes.
John Bender
Footballguy
####
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Those holding KMI, are you holding and waiting for the rebound, which might be years away, or selling and looking at buying back after a reversal?
Sand
Footballguy
Likely just holding, as a personal lesson/reminder, if nothing else. It's still a huge company with 0 chance of going under, so I feel comfortable just letting it sit.
lod01
Footballguy
Doubt it does but there is no reason it can't go to $10. It did before. The lower it goes the more the weak OPEC counties will pump to try and bring in revenue.
Standing at the UWTI 3x oil bull table. Waiting to place bet.
