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Stock Thread (4 Viewers)

John Bender said:
Standing PAT on oil. 

Odd after a years worth of trading oil stuff back and forth almost daily to be hanging in there like this but I'm still happy with my positions - even in the ETF stuff.  I think we're more likely to see $60 than $40
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I hear you, but it is worth noting the higher it goes the harder it falls. 10% of $40 is obviously much > 10% of 30. Some pullback right now, WTI could look for support around the 20 day. If we see another uptick in rigs this afternoon, could lead to some aggressive afternoon selling. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I hear you, but it is worth noting the higher it goes the harder it falls. 10% of $40 is obviously much > 10% of 30. Some pullback right now, WTI could look for support around the 20 day. If we see another uptick in rigs this afternoon, could lead to some aggressive afternoon selling. 
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Totally understand and my position is just speculative of course (that's part of the fun).  But I've been the neighborhood oil bull here since I started trading and have a reputation to keep up.

Actually just grabbed 600 more UCO @ $13.17 on the downtick today. This is stuff I watch almost 2 or 3 times an hour and can build in a stop loss if I need as well.  I just don't see the need to right now.  While it's leveraged, risky and possibly even dangerous, I'm active enough to where I feel like I'm a bit safe from taking a complete bath. And I so badly want to be there with a big pop when I'm back to paying $4.00/gallon again which I think is ultimately inevitable. 

I also don't trade with any more than 5% of my entire retirement holdings. The rest is tucked away in a safe 401K and my savings account. I don't have the balls that you or STL Bob have (among others).  So, if it pops, I take an awesome vacation, if it doesn't...I'll be ok.

 
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I only have about $5k in each BP and Shell. I'm just collecting dividends now. I'm not looking to dump it or anything as I was able to more than double up with this years Roth contribution. Can't go wrong with a free 7% dividend on both of these for the year no matter what happens with oil overall. With my bankroll I just have to sit and hold for the time being. 

 
Another interesting thing my buddy was telling me is how the market is over-expecting the rate of return for shale to the market... There were 350k oil layoffs worldwide, 100k here in the states. Most of the workers laid off in ND have left and will need strong packages and guarantees to come back. A lot of them have sought work in things that are more stable, such as Solar. Putting together fracking crews isn't easy. In the state of Texas, they had 45 crews 2 years ago, right now they have 8! Furthermore, a lot of these companies are so debt strapped and don't have the ability to raise capital anymore, so it will not be the simple flipping a switch a lot of folks think it will be.

There was an uptick in production for the first time in a while, but it came from Alaska. 8k BPD drop in production from the lower 48, this means shale still on the decline, and it will be time before it comes back.

Fundamentals support bulls, but leveraged ETFs implode on big movements... UWTI was $42 Wed night, I sold today at $38.25, that is a huge move in a day and a half.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I hear you, but it is worth noting the higher it goes the harder it falls. 10% of $40 is obviously much > 10% of 30. Some pullback right now, WTI could look for support around the 20 day. If we see another uptick in rigs this afternoon, could lead to some aggressive afternoon selling. 
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We're already at that 20 day moving average, didn't take long... If we go below $49.25, look out. Baker Hughes needs to provide support or this is going to flush.

 
John Bender said:
Totally understand and my position is just speculative of course (that's part of the fun).  But I've been the neighborhood oil bull here since I started trading and have a reputation to keep up.

Actually just grabbed 600 more UCO @ $13.17 on the downtick today. This is stuff I watch almost 2 or 3 times an hour and can build in a stop loss if I need as well.  I just don't see the need to right now.  While it's leveraged, risky and possibly even dangerous, I'm active enough to where I feel like I'm a bit safe from taking a complete bath. And I so badly want to be there with a big pop when I'm back to paying $4.00/gallon again which I think is ultimately inevitable. 

I also don't trade with any more than 5% of my entire retirement holdings. The rest is tucked away in a safe 401K and my savings account. I don't have the balls that you or STL Bob have (among others).  So, if it pops, I take an awesome vacation, if it doesn't...I'll be ok.
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Balls, stupidity... 

 
That little spike into the 78s for CAT seemingly came out of nowhere. What was that about? Sitting on some covered calls I don't really want to be called.

 
John Bender said:
Pssssh.  
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You're either going to be really happy in 30 minutes or throwing your phone through the computer. Market is just volatile right now and this report can go either way... If it shows another uptick, the market is going to view that as a start of a new trend and I would expect an overreaction of selling. 

I just don't know how the report will look, so I don't want to play with fire. As of now 20 day MA is providing support as expected, that could change with a bad BH report.

 
Tempted to jump back into UCO here, and scalp away, as it looks like it might be range bound here a bit... :unsure: I should just be honest and go to the craps table.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Covered at $22.77 for a profit $6030.00
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I hate you right now.  JK good bet.  VRX is by far the worst trade of my young investing life.  Going to stick it out until Q2 earnings, as I think Papa threw in the kitchen sink with Q1.  They have 2 new drugs expected to be released next month, currently restructuring a Walgreens deal, and their shareholders meeting is tomorrow. 

 
dschuler said:
I hate you right now.  JK good bet.  VRX is by far the worst trade of my young investing life.  Going to stick it out until Q2 earnings, as I think Papa threw in the kitchen sink with Q1.  They have 2 new drugs expected to be released next month, currently restructuring a Walgreens deal, and their shareholders meeting is tomorrow. 
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I thought there was a very good chance they were going to announce a restructuring and it was going to be even worse.  Be very careful with this one GB, roll ups almost never work out long term.

 
The Federal Reserve is a total joke, can't remember the last time they were right, the only reason why they still have relevance is because people are suckers for authoritarian types that make predictions.  

I don't understand why the Federal Reserve is constitutional, the traders even have a saying "don't fight the Fed" where is the checks and balances in that?  We don't say "don't fight the prez", or "don't fight the Supreme Court".  

Anyways, I'll fight them because someone has to, it stinks that I am usually right with my investments only to have the Federal Reserve bufoons stumble by and tell everyone I'm wrong and give the short term traders the green light to rape me. Thankfully I have the means to outlast this buffoonery but markets should be driven by the truth not central bank buffoons.

Rant over, I now bend over waiting for the Federal Reserve to say something wrong so the traders can rape me again.

 
spreagle said:
The Federal Reserve is a total joke, can't remember the last time they were right, the only reason why they still have relevance is because people are suckers for authoritarian types that make predictions.  

I don't understand why the Federal Reserve is constitutional, the traders even have a saying "don't fight the Fed" where is the checks and balances in that?  We don't say "don't fight the prez", or "don't fight the Supreme Court".  

Anyways, I'll fight them because someone has to, it stinks that I am usually right with my investments only to have the Federal Reserve bufoons stumble by and tell everyone I'm wrong and give the short term traders the green light to rape me. Thankfully I have the means to outlast this buffoonery but markets should be driven by the truth not central bank buffoons.

Rant over, I now bend over waiting for the Federal Reserve to say something wrong so the traders can rape me again.
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Somebody should come up with a saying that advises people to not have this happen to them. 

 
metoo said:
I got out of the oil ETF I was in about 2 weeks ago. Anyone buying financials?
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Just bought JPM ahead of the ex-dividend date in a couple weeks. Mega-cap, low P/E. I'll hold long if necessary but would prefer a short-term gain and then get out. I was considering GS but JPMorgan looks better to me.

 
I'm going to sell... Trying to move my short after hours. Amazingly we just cruised right down to the 50 DMA. IDK if it will hold and bounce or break. If it breaks, look for some more volatility heading towards the Brexit vote. Also, Norwegian Oil Workers vote on 6/20, worth paying attention to as well. 

No need to be greedy after a day like today.

 
kevzilla said:
Working on getting my old man to double down on his position.
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It has my attention. Definitely interested,  but I'm holding out to see what happens with Financials as we get closer and closer to Brexit. Could be a missed opportunity,  but I think there's still downside. 

 
Wife says to me first thing this morning when I get up:

"We need to get our money into the bank ASAP and out of the market. Read this article on CNN, this guy says the market is going to crash, he even has the date it is going to crash. You have to read this right now"

:cry: :lmao:

 
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You spend 4 days blind drunk and everything changes.  What happened that we went from Brexit ending the world to a belief that there's no way it happens?

 
Haven't posted the oil plays this week, however, they've been running nicely to the tune of about $4k in two days:

http://i.imgur.com/caCcBjH.png - 1 hour and 9 minutes worth of work on this one.

This was an all day play Monday, but about $1600 here - http://i.imgur.com/bsDyOGp.png http://i.imgur.com/OGD5mE3.png

I'm not getting greedy bc it has been a good two days, but if I was playing it, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to short oil going into the API report at 430 and then selling upon release. 

 
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Looking for suggestions for an ETF or mutual fund that would give me exposure to gold, silver, platinum, palladium and cobalt. Anyone have experience with a low-fee fund for precious metals?

 
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