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Capella said:
I bought more amazon yesterday. I hate myself for it but I couldn’t ignore the price. That said, I am ready to dump if it totally goes off a cliff. I hate this. 
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Do you have a plan or levels in place? Don't act on emotion, bc a washout could be in the works (IMO), where it might tank to like $1,200 super quick, you panic, you sell, you take a loss, and 12 days later it is at $1,430 and you hate yourself. 

Think in advance, otherwise the pain and emotion will get in your way and make you lose money... Hence the term panic selling. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Predictions in a stable environment are tough enough.  We have a President who moves the market in 280 character bursts, and even the people who are supposed to be advising him have no idea wtf he's going to do next.  Predicting anything in that kind of environment seems nigh impossible.
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Sadly, we were priced for nothing but optimism... Think we're repricing for risk (ironically, the market optimism and now the pessimism come from the same source), and being that the risk is unknown, we're prob going to be in this cycle for a few more months, IMO - shame to waste what should be a strong earnings season (I suspect earnings will be positive and outlook should be in line with expectations, but if they're not, it'll get ugly quick). 

 
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is just playing HFT ping pong back and forth today, picking off the little guys and making some change back and forth. 

 
Everyone loves Amazon, and what isn't to love, they're an amazing company - as a consumer and investor, hard to find many flaws... So on that end, everything we all liked about them remains completely intact. 

With that being said, we have to look at what the market is telling us and rethink the thesis a little. If your timeframe is 5 years and everything between now and then means nothing, then the above meme is 10,000% accurate (assuming you can handle the pain in the interim).

The first thing to look at is what has changed? Share price is down about 15% from peak, why? I think the answer is straightforward, they're under attack from a powerful individual (I think the overwhelming amount of posters in this thread, myself included, hate the guy and think he is a buffoon, but he is the POTUS, and that is the most powerful person on the planet). The troubling issue anyone has is understanding what he can really do? I've read about this for the last week or so and still can't come to any meaningful conclusion - directly, his power is somewhat limited, but using influence, he might be able to slow them a little; he can try to influence the post office to renegotiate contracts, he can try to use influence to get the Pentagon to abandon a multibillion dollar cloud deal, he can try to use influence to have antitrust laws investigated (although, these are in place to protect consumers, and consumers love the company bc they save them time/money, so I'm skeptical anything would come of this). 

The bottom line is simple; the idiot has created some rocky waters when the ocean was open for smooth sailing just a month ago. Nobody knows what he can really do and what the outcomes would be, hence the extreme volatility in the stock (big money doesn't know either, anyone's guess). 

 
I’ll be honest that I hope a lawsuit does happen. Nothing Amazon has done is against the law. USPS setup the deal and I’d bet they have other deals. From that article it seems like they needed the cash infusion to keep jobs. Also, cancelling a contract for no reason? This buffoon has a personal vendetta and I’d love to see something go to the courts showing that he’s acting outside of the whole system put in place to make things fair. I fortunately have a longer term view on my Amazon investments but still, he’s completely ####ed up the entire market too. I hate that he’s the president. It’s like having a bratty Kim Kardashian in the White House and it’s ####inh sad. How sad is it that his republican can say without hesitation that I really wish Hillary had won. ####### blowtard. He’s not anti-establishment he’s doing only what’s good for him and his family and using the presidency to do it. Such a black mark on our history. 

 
stbugs said:
I’ll be honest that I hope a lawsuit does happen. Nothing Amazon has done is against the law. USPS setup the deal and I’d bet they have other deals. From that article it seems like they needed the cash infusion to keep jobs. Also, cancelling a contract for no reason? This buffoon has a personal vendetta and I’d love to see something go to the courts showing that he’s acting outside of the whole system put in place to make things fair. I fortunately have a longer term view on my Amazon investments but still, he’s completely ####ed up the entire market too. I hate that he’s the president. It’s like having a bratty Kim Kardashian in the White House and it’s ####inh sad. How sad is it that his republican can say without hesitation that I really wish Hillary had won. ####### blowtard. He’s not anti-establishment he’s doing only what’s good for him and his family and using the presidency to do it. Such a black mark on our history. 
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I just wish he'd make a negative tweet about Microsoft so my buy would trigger.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Do you have a plan or levels in place? Don't act on emotion, bc a washout could be in the works (IMO), where it might tank to like $1,200 super quick, you panic, you sell, you take a loss, and 12 days later it is at $1,430 and you hate yourself. 

Think in advance, otherwise the pain and emotion will get in your way and make you lose money... Hence the term panic selling. 
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You’re not wrong. We are fine financially but I hate being in this position. 

 
I hope he gets the Pentagon to rip up the AWS contract. Not only do I expect there are some heavy penalties in there, but it will likely end up in a richer contract for Amazon when the Pentagon comes crawling back to them after a couple years of dealing with whatever subpar service (owned by one of his buddies) that he steers them to. 

 
Capella said:
You’re not wrong. We are fine financially but I hate being in this position. 
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It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being in a comfortable financial position - I speak from experience, so don't take offense, but your comments scream to me of someone who might panic sell. That's not a slight at you, so don't take it that way, it's human nature & I've done it, and not doing it in the future is one thing that is of the utmost importance to improve my long term returns... 

You're in a stock, it's going great, and all of the sudden in the matter of 2 weeks it falls 15% - human nature makes you panicky... So when you say something like "if it falls off a cliff, I'll dump it," I'm thinking there could be a panic sell waiting in the wings. Or "I hate being in this position," etc.

This goes back to always being prepared for what you do - hypothetically, AMZN drops $100 tomorrow and the sky feels like it is falling, do you impulsively sell something you love, then regret it later and buy back for more? I've done it, I'm trying to take emotions of out of things, that historically has been my biggest downfall (along with greed, both of which I've spent years trying to address and am finally getting better at it) - it's hard/painful when you're investment sinks 20%, your mind says "stop the pain!"

That's simply why I say have a plan; think about 5 different scenarios that can happen and how you'll react.

Anyways, didn't see it discussed in here, but the second this dropped today, AMZN turned around hard... Props to Bloomberg for stemming the selling:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/trump-keeps-heat-on-amazon-over-postal-deal-as-stock-languishes

 
RUSF18 said:
I hope he gets the Pentagon to rip up the AWS contract. Not only do I expect there are some heavy penalties in there, but it will likely end up in a richer contract for Amazon when the Pentagon comes crawling back to them after a couple years of dealing with whatever subpar service (owned by one of his buddies) that he steers them to. 
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Let's be realistic, there are other quality options beyond AWS out there. Sadly, that contract might be in jeopardy behind the scenes in the coming months, but that is far from the end of the world, and more like a blip on the radar if it were to happen. 

I'd almost hope it would happen bc it would be a quick and very buyable dip. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being in a comfortable financial position - I speak from experience, so don't take offense, but your comments scream to me of someone who might panic sell. That's not a slight at you, so don't take it that way, it's human nature & I've done it, and not doing it in the future is one thing that is of the utmost importance to improve my long term returns... 

You're in a stock, it's going great, and all of the sudden in the matter of 2 weeks it falls 15% - human nature makes you panicky... So when you say something like "if it falls off a cliff, I'll dump it," I'm thinking there could be a panic sell waiting in the wings. Or "I hate being in this position," etc.

This goes back to always being prepared for what you do - hypothetically, AMZN drops $100 tomorrow and the sky feels like it is falling, do you impulsively sell something you love, then regret it later and buy back for more? I've done it, I'm trying to take emotions of out of things, that historically has been my biggest downfall (along with greed, both of which I've spent years trying to address and am finally getting better at it) - it's hard/painful when you're investment sinks 20%, your mind says "stop the pain!"

That's simply why I say have a plan; think about 5 different scenarios that can happen and how you'll react.

Anyways, didn't see it discussed in here, but the second this dropped today, AMZN turned around hard... Props to Bloomberg for stemming the selling:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/trump-keeps-heat-on-amazon-over-postal-deal-as-stock-languishes
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I also don’t mean this as a slight but didn’t you sell amazon weeks ago? I guess it’s a bit of a panic for me, but I have a ton of this #### and it’s uncomfortable to have that much with this buffoon making a run at it every day. I want to protect some earnings even though I am VERY bullish on it. 

But your comments are good and appreciated. I doubt I sell anything but I can’t help but to hate everything this guy is doing. 

Also your third paragraph is very true. 

 
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Are we complaining about a stock that is STILL ~20% higher than the index on the year? Have some perspective people. 

IMO this isn't just about tweets, the stock has had an INCREDIBLE run, and being a great company doesn't necessarily make it a great investment at any price.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being in a comfortable financial position - I speak from experience, so don't take offense, but your comments scream to me of someone who might panic sell. That's not a slight at you, so don't take it that way, it's human nature & I've done it, and not doing it in the future is one thing that is of the utmost importance to improve my long term returns... 

You're in a stock, it's going great, and all of the sudden in the matter of 2 weeks it falls 15% - human nature makes you panicky... So when you say something like "if it falls off a cliff, I'll dump it," I'm thinking there could be a panic sell waiting in the wings. Or "I hate being in this position," etc.

This goes back to always being prepared for what you do - hypothetically, AMZN drops $100 tomorrow and the sky feels like it is falling, do you impulsively sell something you love, then regret it later and buy back for more? I've done it, I'm trying to take emotions of out of things, that historically has been my biggest downfall (along with greed, both of which I've spent years trying to address and am finally getting better at it) - it's hard/painful when you're investment sinks 20%, your mind says "stop the pain!"

That's simply why I say have a plan; think about 5 different scenarios that can happen and how you'll react.

Anyways, didn't see it discussed in here, but the second this dropped today, AMZN turned around hard... Props to Bloomberg for stemming the selling:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/trump-keeps-heat-on-amazon-over-postal-deal-as-stock-languishes
Click to expand...
Why not just buy a protective put?  You could buy the Jan 2019 1400 Put for $150.  $15k to protect $140k of stock.  Around 10% Cost of the position at current prices. But it seems like most here have been in $AMZN for quite sometime...so it seems reasonable to just fully protect your profits.  (example: if you have 100% profit in a position in a very short time why not pay 10% to fully protect those gains, allowing for the opportunity for more) You lose in this situation only if $AMZN trades in a narrow range for 10 months.  I think that's low odds.

 
Capella said:
I also don’t mean this as a slight but didn’t you sell amazon weeks ago? I guess it’s a bit of a panic for me, but I have a ton of this #### and it’s uncomfortable to have that much with this buffoon making a run at it every day. I want to protect some earnings even though I am VERY bullish on it. 

But your comments are good and appreciated. I doubt I sell anything but I can’t help but to hate everything this guy is doing. 

Also your third paragraph is very true. 
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I sold to protect a large gain in a short time - that was me eliminating greed. 

My plan and your plan will obviously be different - I’m looking at a late cycle environment from my perspective... basically, I’m not married to anything. If I pick up a large gain quickly and I see some cracks forming, I’ll protect my profits and exit (on the flip side, if something goes against me, I’ll exit for a 2-3% loss quickly rather than letting it ride, unless my plan is to DCA). AMZN had closed at $1,520ish IIRC, which was about 13% over my total average (I had a small position before diving in head first at $1,380) - at that point, I decided I wanted to lock at least 10% (for a 4 week period, I considered that a huge win). The tariff news started heating up at that point, and it fell from $1,520ish to $1,450 before I could blink, it bounced and at $1,485 I had my 10% and exited. It then proceeded to run well over $1,600. Sure I was a little bummed that I left that much out there, but I had 10% on a large investment in 1 month, I’ll never complain about that. 

Nonetheless, my move was slightly panic induced, it’s human nature, but at the end of the day, I made my goal quickly and hit the gates.

 
Capella said:
I bought more amazon yesterday. I hate myself for it but I couldn’t ignore the price. That said, I am ready to dump if it totally goes off a cliff. I hate this. 
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just buy more cobalt blockchain imo

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm still waiting on most. I'm waiting for a washout.

AMZN is such a good company and our idiot POTUS is determined to hang a cloud over them, so frustrating.
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FC, 

This is a blessing.   I hope POTUS drives them another chunk lower. 

matuski said:
Company Stock took a huge jump today for no apparent reason.  Sold it all.

Feels good man.
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Since you're a socialist and all you're gonna share,  right? 

fantasycurse42 said:
Our administration is playing checkers, theirs is playing chess. 
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One administration has checks and balances the other has an autocrat for life.   They will always be more nimble. 

 
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humpback said:
Are we complaining about a stock that is STILL ~20% higher than the index on the year? Have some perspective people. 

IMO this isn't just about tweets, the stock has had an INCREDIBLE run, and being a great company doesn't necessarily make it a great investment at any price.
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No we're complaining about the POTUS purposely trying to tank the stock. 

 
Sheriff Bart said:
No we're complaining about the POTUS purposely trying to tank the stock. 
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Tis just noise in the long run.

NREC34 said:
It tanks the whole market when he does it.

It’s one of the most important stocks in the market. 
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Yes, because it is already a very crowded trade and it's had such a huge run up it's going to have a larger than normal impact on the market. Again, tweets (and Trump in general) are only one part of the equation, however.

 
Whoa. Overnight action is really reacting to China's tariff responses. 

DOW Futures down  2% NASDAQ  down 2% SP down 1.4%

VIX up 9%

Gold up .72%

Oil down 1%

this is all around 3am central

 
humpback said:
Tis just noise in the long run.

Yes, because it is already a very crowded trade and it's had such a huge run up it's going to have a larger than normal impact on the market. Again, tweets (and Trump in general) are only one part of the equation, however.
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Ah yeah. You’re right dude. 

Sorry for criticizing your orange messaih. 

He’s the bestest. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/china-to-respond-to-new-u-s-duties-with-same-scale-intensity

I think this should spook the market, don't know if it will, but I'll gamble about $700 bucks on it. Sold a YM future just now, stop loses me $700 if it goes against me. 
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Trailer is in, locking at least $3k of profit in.

Nasdaq might touch the 200 DMA - watch for the washout today... if you’re looking to add to positions, might be worth adding 1/4 or 1/3 of your position today.

 
GoBirds said:
There are about 50 threads for your political agenda, how about not in here fella?
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Sorry dude. Unfortunately when the president is actively screwing the market, it becomes political. Nothing that I wish for or hoped would happen either.

 
My trailer hit, nice trade...

Looks like we’ve (America) bought back about 200 points from the lows - not really sure what we’re buying, but selling into strength today might not be a bad move.

 
culdeus said:
Work?  You live in China?
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haha ... yes, I have a day job much like a China-man.

The extra $100k a year comes in handy. Odds and ends. Play money. ... and it pays for my 2 kids in college.

I considered making my money the old fashioned way ...   flipping credit cards for rewards, but after much debate, decided it would be nice to get out of the house.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Trailer is in, locking at least $3k of profit in.

Nasdaq might touch the 200 DMA - watch for the washout today... if you’re looking to add to positions, might be worth adding 1/4 or 1/3 of your position today.
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I'm locked and loaded. Let's make some deals.

I'll admit, I'm ignorant to most of this stuff, but isn't it a GOOD thing for us people looking to invest when stocks come down?

With the doom and gloom talk about potus, makes me think folks in here "all in" with nothing left to invest. I say let it fall. I wan't a discount on everything.

That said ... (noob question, please excuse) does it make sense to sell a stock at a loss if you think you can re-acquire that stock for less in the near future?

Seems that's what I'm about to do with NFLX and I'm wondering if there is a reason NOT to do this ... and just hold at the original price paid.

 
NREC34 said:
Sorry dude. Unfortunately when the president is actively screwing the market, it becomes political. Nothing that I wish for or hoped would happen either.
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To put this as bluntly as possible - all this talk is noise.   A voting machine.  The market is,  in the long run,  a weighing machine. 

If you have this stock,  its just noise.   If you're looking to buy it's providing a nice artificially low entry point.  There will be no substantive action to hurt Amazon. 

Your being way too emotional about this.   That's how bad investment decisions are made. 

And from now on let's keep this discussion to a dispassionate analysis of government policy and how it affects the markets.   The rest is drivel. 

 
Bossman said:
That said ... (noob question, please excuse) does it make sense to sell a stock at a loss if you think you can re-acquire that stock for less in the near future?
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Sure, but you need to watch out for the wash rule.  And you have to be correct for it to work out.

I am considering something different.  I have a good chunk of change in VWENX (Vanguard Wellington Fund, 2/3 stock and 1/3 bond).  If we get a real wash out I would be tempted to liquidate that (taking a loss) and investing in Vanguard's S&P 500 fund, looking for a faster ride back up, eventually selling the S&P 500 (booking a gain) and getting back into Wellington.

It would have to be a real wash out - something like S&P at 2100 - for me to seriously consider it.  And frankly I am not comfortable wrecking my asset allocation in an attempt to market-time.

 
James Daulton said:
This feels like we start getting hammered but end the day up big.

That's just how it feels to me. 
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I hope so (but highly doubt it), I’ll sell the daylights out of it. I’m thinking we close down huge today, tbh. Black swan could be developing - algos are just programmed to buy everything always (not really, but it sure feels that way)... this is starting to become more than noise, IMO.

I’m sure there are talks going on behind the scenes, but hard to interpret them as going very well right now.

 
Bossman said:
That said ... (noob question, please excuse) does it make sense to sell a stock at a loss if you think you can re-acquire that stock for less in the near future? 
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I'll do this for loss harvesting purposes.   And pair a buy with something correlated.  Sell EEM,  buy EEMV.  After 30 days sell EEMV,  but back EEM. 

 
China keeps embarrassing Trump (I don't think he expected that quick of a response) - the analysts keep saying this is nothing yada yada yada... How do you guys think an egomaniac president responds to being embarrassed? 

A month ago this was just noise (it still is, supposedly). Personally, I'd label this as a trade confrontation/conflict at this point and China doesn't look like they're backing down at all. I think it might be possible that we're about 2-3 months away from a full blown trade war - I doubt either country wants that, but we might happen to stumble into it. 

 
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