What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (57 Viewers)

St. Louis Bob said:
Another 250 at $10  for 500 at $10.29.
Click to expand...
Find all the moves in the equity markets pretty confusing today - happy to just be sitting in gold, these moves are ridiculous.

Bonds are unchanged, gold is unchanged, dollar is up against the Yen but down against the Pound/Euro/CAD, and the Vix is only down slightly considering the monster move in stocks. 

Either stocks are right and everything else is wrong, or vice versa. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trade war is over. Time to party like it’s a month ago. 

If Trump gets indicted or resigns it could be another big catalyst. 

 
If I owned any FB, I'd be selling ahead of Zuck's testimony in a couple hours. Not saying it won't ultimately go back up, but I would be SHOCKED if it doesn't drop during the session. No one ever looks good at these things.

 
RUSF18 said:
If I owned any FB, I'd be selling ahead of Zuck's testimony in a couple hours. Not saying it won't ultimately go back up, but I would be SHOCKED if it doesn't drop during the session. No one ever looks good at these things.
Click to expand...
This did not appear to be a good call. 

 
RUSF18 said:
This did not appear to be a good call. 
Click to expand...
Zuck is a sharp kid.  Not a big fan of FB the product and lately FB the stock but I wish our elected officials could act with the same amount of intelligence, dignity and respect.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
pecorino said:
I’m thinking about dipping my toe into options by selling covered calls with some of my retirement money. I may use the 100 shares of ICPT that I have as the premiums seem good and I wouldn’t mind selling it anyway. But I’m looking for suggestions for other stalwart retirement stocks like MCD or DIS, for example, that would be good buys with the intent to generate income through selling covered calls. Thanks for any and all advice.
Click to expand...
I have been writing covered call, 2-3 week maturities with aapl, typically 3-5 out of the money with pretty good premium.  They way I look at it, I protect 2-4 of downside (premium paid on the call), with a stock that I want to own for a while.  I have been cashed out 2x in the last few months only to rebuy the stock later in the range I am looking for (170 ish).  Worked out well so far.  If the market completely tanks I don’t mind holding the stock for a while. Up roughly 10% this year (I think my cost basis is roughly 168 right now with April 25th 175 calls currently working.    Good luck, the more volition the stock the better the premium.  Did this year’s back with my amazon stock and 450 calls so be careful.  

 
Bossman said:
I appreciate the offer. 

It's not the fact that I can't afford the MSFT stock ... it's more the fact that I want it at a better value. 

I've recently purchased AMZN and NFLX at their peaks and I'm now attempting to be more patient with my purchases. Lessons learned and such.

Probably should have grabbed some MSFT early yesterday. Had an order in Tuesday evening but it missed at opening by $2. 
Click to expand...
It's not a matter of "affording". It's a matter of capitalizing even if the stock doesn't get down to your price (and remaining patient).

Example on one contract (100 shares): Sounds like you want to buy MSFT at $86? If so, sell a May 18 exp $87.50 Put for $1.60 ($160). Costs me $1.30 at my broker. Two things can happen:

1) MSFT is below $87.50 on close of May 18 and you get Put into 100 shares at $87.50. Since you collected $1.60 your cost basis is $85.90 ($87.50-$1.60)...same price you wanted to pay anyways. You'll need to be prepared to fund your account to pay for the 100 shares at $87.50. 

2) MSFT is above $87.50 on close of May 18 and you keep the $160 you collected. You'd need about $2,000 set aside for margin while short this contract, so, a return of 8% in 37 days ($160/$2000).

If (2) happens, you can do it all over again for July expiration...wash, rinse, repeat until you get into the shares you wanted. Something to consider, imho.

 
sbonomo said:
I have been writing covered call, 2-3 week maturities with aapl, typically 3-5 out of the money with pretty good premium.  They way I look at it, I protect 2-4 of downside (premium paid on the call), with a stock that I want to own for a while.  I have been cashed out 2x in the last few months only to rebuy the stock later in the range I am looking for (170 ish).  Worked out well so far.  If the market completely tanks I don’t mind holding the stock for a while. Up roughly 10% this year (I think my cost basis is roughly 168 right now with April 25th 175 calls currently working.    Good luck, the more volition the stock the better the premium.  Did this year’s back with my amazon stock and 450 calls so be careful.  
Click to expand...
Thanks. And, not to muddy the waters, but I've been reading about selling puts, too, and I'm liking this idea instead of placing a limit order to buy a stock as I used to do. For instance, if I like Gilead at $73 (which I do) but it is at $75 now, I can sell the put with a strike price of $73 and bank as small premium. If it hits, I buy the stock at the price I want but if not at least I still get the premium. When I was buying with limit orders, I had no secondary way to make some money so I like this idea in principle. Have not yet put it into practice, yet.

 
Rattle and Hum said:
It's not a matter of "affording". It's a matter of capitalizing even if the stock doesn't get down to your price (and remaining patient).

Example on one contract (100 shares): Sounds like you want to buy MSFT at $86? If so, sell a May 18 exp $87.50 Put for $1.60 ($160). Costs me $1.30 at my broker. Two things can happen:

1) MSFT is below $87.50 on close of May 18 and you get Put into 100 shares at $87.50. Since you collected $1.60 your cost basis is $85.90 ($87.50-$1.60)...same price you wanted to pay anyways. You'll need to be prepared to fund your account to pay for the 100 shares at $87.50. 

2) MSFT is above $87.50 on close of May 18 and you keep the $160 you collected. You'd need about $2,000 set aside for margin while short this contract, so, a return of 8% in 37 days ($160/$2000).

If (2) happens, you can do it all over again for July expiration...wash, rinse, repeat until you get into the shares you wanted. Something to consider, imho.
Click to expand...
Um, I should have read this post before I replied to the other poster re: options. This I like.

 
$FB is nearing my short target (high 160's-mid 170's).  Target moves a bit every day, but I'm watching it closely.  It's not a short term position.  I'll be patient.

RE: Options strategies.  You guys have the concept correct.  However - you should think of options like a contractors tools.  A hammer and screwdriver are necessary, but you don't need a hammer to lay tile or a screwdriver to shingle your roof.  There are ideal scenarios in which to write puts with the goal to have stock put to you.  Or write a covered call.  In addition the target for the strike price shouldn't necessarily be based on a % but rather targets based off of support/resistance to give yourself the best odds of successfully implementing the strategy.  Overall good ideas, but I'd consider having a type of "pilots checklist" to determine how best to use each strategy and when.

 
@siffoin

Any chance you could look at gold? I'm seeing heavy resistance at $1,365, but a break above that could signal the beginning of a new long term bull run. I can sorta see a cup and handle or rounding bottom depending on how you look at it - curious what you see on gold? 

I'd think a leg up in gold would be investors seeking some safety, especially considering the expectations are for higher rates. 

 
Bossman said:
NFLX climbing today. Earning report due out next week. 

Bought 50 shares @ $273.63 last week. Now I wish I had more.
Click to expand...
Goldman put out a bullish note on them this morning.

What I love the most about this market is that a bullish note and NFLX rallies 4%, but a bearish note on TSLA from them yesterday and nothing happens. 

Good news is good news, bad news doesn't matter. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
@siffoin

Any chance you could look at gold? I'm seeing heavy resistance at $1,365, but a break above that could signal the beginning of a new long term bull run. I can sorta see a cup and handle or rounding bottom depending on how you look at it - curious what you see on gold? 

I'd think a leg up in gold would be investors seeking some safety, especially considering the expectations are for higher rates. 
Click to expand...
I don't have any clue as to what investors are doing and their reasons for doing it.  However, my opinion is that $GLD is in a BULLISH daily trend.  I wouldn't call it an ideal bullish chart, but it is bullish.  The Weekly chart looks stronger to me - which is a good sign LT.  The hourly chart looks bullish too.  I see resistance from $130-$135.  We'll see what happens as it approaches that area. Personally my portfolio has appox 2% in $GLD.

 
siffoin said:
I don't have any clue as to what investors are doing and their reasons for doing it.  However, my opinion is that $GLD is in a BULLISH daily trend.  I wouldn't call it an ideal bullish chart, but it is bullish.  The Weekly chart looks stronger to me - which is a good sign LT.  The hourly chart looks bullish too.  I see resistance from $130-$135.  We'll see what happens as it approaches that area. Personally my portfolio has appox 2% in $GLD.
Click to expand...
Thanks Siff - I was looking at the futures, which as of this post are about 45 ticks from a 52 week high. 

 
Think it is important to take notice of gold for equity investors too... I looked at charts at home yesterday, but I'm on my work computer now and don't have any real software, so I put together what I was looking at yesterday on a basic CNBC chart. I'm a chart beginner, I've only been looking at patterns for 2.5-3 years, but I think there are some things worth noting:

The top line shows resistance over the last 3 years, the middle two circular patterns are a cup and handle, which is typically a bullish pattern, and the bottom line looks like a rounding bottom to me. 

A break above 1,365 looks like it could be a breakout point and the beginning of a new gold bull run.

https://i.imgur.com/1TByGR0.png

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
Think it is important to take notice of gold for equity investors too... I looked at charts at home yesterday, but I'm on my work computer now and don't have any real software, so I put together what I was looking at yesterday on a basic CNBC chart. I'm a chart beginner, I've only been looking at patterns for 2.5-3 years, but I think there are some things worth noting:

The top line shows resistance over the last 3 years, the middle two circular patterns are a cup and handle, which is typically a bullish pattern, and the bottom line looks like a rounding bottom to me. 

A break above 1,365 looks like it could be a breakout point and the beginning of a new gold bull run.

https://i.imgur.com/1TByGR0.png
Click to expand...
So you are saying i shouldnt have sold my AUY today? 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Think it is important to take notice of gold for equity investors too... I looked at charts at home yesterday, but I'm on my work computer now and don't have any real software, so I put together what I was looking at yesterday on a basic CNBC chart. I'm a chart beginner, I've only been looking at patterns for 2.5-3 years, but I think there are some things worth noting:

The top line shows resistance over the last 3 years, the middle two circular patterns are a cup and handle, which is typically a bullish pattern, and the bottom line looks like a rounding bottom to me. 

A break above 1,365 looks like it could be a breakout point and the beginning of a new gold bull run.

https://i.imgur.com/1TByGR0.png
Click to expand...
Besides the technical aspect, I think gold is a great hedge for the #### storm that we're in, and is about to get nastier. I think we see a more prolonged downturn in about two weeks *crystalball*. Between China, Russia, Syria, ####s about to get real. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
So you are saying i shouldnt have sold my AUY today? 
Click to expand...
Prob a great sell, selling into resistance... If it doesn't break resistance, you're at the top.

skycriesmary said:
Besides the technical aspect, I think gold is a great hedge for the #### storm that we're in, and is about to get nastier. I think we see a more prolonged downturn in about two weeks *crystalball*. Between China, Russia, Syria, ####s about to get real. 
Click to expand...
I think you're too early. I suspect a rally is getting ready to take shape. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TVIX on sale this morning.

Got an order in for 500 @ $9.12 .... might be wishful thinking.

Edit to add: Changed the order to $9.48 when it seemed to stop falling.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bossman said:
TVIX on sale this morning.

Got an order in for 500 @ $9.12 .... might be wishful thinking.

Edit to add: Changed the order to $9.48 when it seemed to stop falling.
Click to expand...
I have an order in for 500 more at $9.20 and wouldn't mind buying more in the 8's.  This is gambling although there's a reason I'm doing it so @fantasycurse42 advice is prudent.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Unless you're an extremely savvy investor, I'd be careful consistently buying/selling TVIX.
Click to expand...
I'm far from savvy.

St. Louis Bob said:
I have an order in for 500 more at $9.20 and wouldn't mind buying more in the 8's.  This is gambling although there's a reason I'm doing it so @fantasycurse42 advice is prudent.
Click to expand...
... what is the risk? Seems like when the market goes down, this goes UP. (and vice versa).

With such market volatility of late ... seems so easy to buy at the dips and dump at the peaks.

 
Bossman said:
I'm far from savvy.

... what is the risk? Seems like when the market goes down, this goes UP. (and vice versa).

With such market volatility of late ... seems so easy to buy at the dips and dump at the peaks.
Click to expand...
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/082515/why-leveraged-etfs-are-not-longterm-bet.asp
 

The Bottom Line

If you’re a retail investor and/or a long-term investor, steer clear of leveraged ETFs. Generally designed for short-term (daily) plays on an index or sector, they should be used that way, otherwise, they will eat away at your capital in more ways than one, including fees, rebalancing, and compounding losses.

If you’re a deep-dive researcher willing to invest full days to understanding markets, then leveraged ETFs can present a great wealth-building opportunity, but they're still high-risk. Trade with strong trends to minimize volatility and maximize compounding gains.
Click to expand...


lots of stuff out there. here's another article: https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-08-18/why-leveraged-etfs-are-horrible-investments

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/082515/why-leveraged-etfs-are-not-longterm-bet.asp
 

lots of stuff out there. here's another article: https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-08-18/why-leveraged-etfs-are-horrible-investments
Click to expand...
So the downside is;

a) they don't pay what you'd expect

b) fees that eat into your profit

.... I'm still not seeing much downside if I'm buying and selling within days (or hours).

Is there more risk in this than just shorting other stocks?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Goldman put out a bullish note on them this morning.

What I love the most about this market is that a bullish note and NFLX rallies 4%, but a bearish note on TSLA from them yesterday and nothing happens. 

Good news is good news, bad news doesn't matter. 
Click to expand...
I don’t get Tesla at all. Unlike the other businesses that it seems to be lumped with they are the leaders in their space and growing well. Tesla is blowing through cash that people are worried about financing and they have been horrible at meeting numbers and forecasts. Also, they are far and away not the market leaders in auto sales and seeing as how other automakers are developing or have developed the same thing they aren’t someone I’d invest in now. Joe Blow isn’t spending $70k on a sedan if there’s a good alternative at $40k. They have been so bad at actual manufacturing that I could see the top auto makers blow them away because they can manufacturer cars.

 
stbugs said:
I don’t get Tesla at all. Unlike the other businesses that it seems to be lumped with they are the leaders in their space and growing well. Tesla is blowing through cash that people are worried about financing and they have been horrible at meeting numbers and forecasts. Also, they are far and away not the market leaders in auto sales and seeing as how other automakers are developing or have developed the same thing they aren’t someone I’d invest in now. Joe Blow isn’t spending $70k on a sedan if there’s a good alternative at $40k. They have been so bad at actual manufacturing that I could see the top auto makers blow them away because they can manufacturer cars.
Click to expand...
It is a cult stock, plain and simple - there will be a day of reckoning at some point in the future, if I had any clue when, I'd actually place a bet. 

 
stbugs said:
I don’t get Tesla at all. Unlike the other businesses that it seems to be lumped with they are the leaders in their space and growing well. Tesla is blowing through cash that people are worried about financing and they have been horrible at meeting numbers and forecasts. Also, they are far and away not the market leaders in auto sales and seeing as how other automakers are developing or have developed the same thing they aren’t someone I’d invest in now. Joe Blow isn’t spending $70k on a sedan if there’s a good alternative at $40k. They have been so bad at actual manufacturing that I could see the top auto makers blow them away because they can manufacturer cars.
Click to expand...
Couldn't agree more about the company. (although I don't know much about the stocks).

Most major auto manufactures have an all electric model or two already. Won't be long before the big boys squeeze little Tesla out.

Just doesn't make sense to invest in that company from a business standpoint. Amazon on the other hand ....  :yes:

 
Bossman said:
Couldn't agree more about the company. (although I don't know much about the stocks).

Most major auto manufactures have an all electric model or two already. Won't be long before the big boys squeeze little Tesla out.

Just doesn't make sense to invest in that company from a business standpoint. Amazon on the other hand ....  :yes:
Click to expand...
Yep, Netflix, Facebook, Amazon, etc. could be overvalued (or under) but they’re leaders not small fish in a big pond with good tech but horrific assembly and cash issues. I know that unless they make a car that you can actually buy (not be on a waitlist) at a reasonable price that I’ll never own one and I’d bet 95% of people feel that way. They’d never even consider it. They are also one of the only darling stocks that I think has a truly legitimate possibility of going to 0. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Changed my order to 500 at $9.30 and filled to give me 1500 @ $9.83
Click to expand...
Guess it's just me and you Bob.

I like the fact that ... if my stocks are in the red, I still can make a little $ on the side with TVIX . .... Or days like today when all my stocks are green and TVIX is on sale.

(and I'm really not all that concerned with my 500 TVIX going red ... that just means all of my other holding are going UP!)

Making money every day.

 
Not sure that I understand the NFLX love this week ... but I'll take it. guess people like the new Lost in Space? Or is it the earning report due next week?

Whatever the case ... If it gets into the $320's this month I'll probably sell and lock in a nice profit. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
####, missed the $8's this morning, thought I was going to get a real bargain right about now.  Added a little taste, 250, at $9.08 for 1750 @ $9.72
Click to expand...
500 TVIX @ $8.92. ...for 1000 @ $9.20

 Was going to sit tight on my 500 shares but too tempting today.

I still have no idea what I'm trading here. 2x VIX so they tell me. Difference between "something" and "something else" that is greater when stocks are in decline. 

Probably better if I don't know. I'd rather be ignorant and make hundreds than informed and sit on my hands.

 
Bossman said:
Not sure that I understand the NFLX love this week ... but I'll take it. guess people like the new Lost in Space? Or is it the earning report due next week?

Whatever the case ... If it gets into the $320's this month I'll probably sell and lock in a nice profit. 
Click to expand...
Probably popped on the news Comcast is gonna start offering it in its bundles

 
Noob question;

I can't always be watching the market.

Is there a reason NOT to leave a "long shot" order open just in case the stock you're willing to sell goes crazy? Is this common practice?

Example; I've got a 60 day open order to sell NFLX at $323 ... likely not going to get there anytime soon but if it does, I don't want to miss the opportunity.

 
Bossman said:
Noob question;

I can't always be watching the market.

Is there a reason NOT to leave a "long shot" order open just in case the stock you're willing to sell goes crazy? Is this common practice?

Example; I've got a 60 day open order to sell NFLX at $323 ... likely not going to get there anytime soon but if it does, I don't want to miss the opportunity.
Click to expand...
I'm not going to say I'm an expert by any means, but this is not something I would do.  Trailing stop loss orders, sure, I want to protect any gains and limit my downside.  But by doing something like this you are limiting your upside.  Suppose next week NFLX has some unexpected earnings release and post blow out revenues.  Sure, you see at $323 and are happy.  But stock ends trading the day at $350, how do you feel about that?

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2025 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
77
Views
4K
Andrew74
Andrew74
Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
127
Views
8K
McBokonon
McBokonon
Joey Wright
2025-2026 NCAA College Basketball Thread
Replies
17
Views
436
gump
gump

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 3 more.
    • Total: 48 (members: 16, guests: 32)
    Back
    Top