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Stock Thread (48 Viewers)

Anyone else buying at this dip? ... or just holding cash for the recession?

I'm considering buying back in to NFLX. Sold at $337 ... now dipping close to $300.

 
I think I'm gonna shave bond exposure down in favor of international equity and paper.  I've gotten fairly underweight internationally in last 3-4 years mostly because it seems like VT and other broad indexes have shifted onshore.  

 
Wow,  wtf happened to CAT? 

Up 4% to down 6%, their quarter looked really solid too and guidance was strong.

10% swing starting at about 1130am.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Wow,  wtf happened to CAT? 

Up 4% to down 6%, their quarter looked really solid too and guidance was strong.

10% swing starting at about 1130am.
Click to expand...
Don't think the street like the comments from their CEO.

 

INDUSTRIAL WEAKNESS: Caterpillar had a strong first quarter, but company executives told analysts on a conference call in the late morning that the company doesn't expect to report a larger per-share profit for the rest of the year. The stock dropped 6.6 percent to $143.76.
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:shrug:

 
General Malaise said:
Don't think the street like the comments from their CEO.

 

:shrug:
Click to expand...
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/caterpillar-soars-on-strong-quarterly-results-and-raised-forecast-14565142

Given the strong results and higher demand across all regions, Caterpillar raised its full-year outlook and now expects 2018 profit in a range of between $9.75 and $10.75 a share, compared to its previous guidance of $7.75 and $8.75. Adjusted earnings are anticipated to be in the range of $10.25 to $11.25 a share, up from $8.25 to $9.25.
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Slide didn't start until well after the earnings call. The above numbers look pretty damn good to me. 

 
So this morning I moved money around a bit - sold RE, bought S&P.  So, true to form, the market turned based on my moves.  Sorry guys, my bad.

So, if you like money, buy some REITs.  Guaranteed  :moneybag:

 
FB great earnings. Looks like all tech stocks will be on fire tomorrow. Bunch of them I own or follow doing really well in after hours. Looks like I was one day early on my SQ call. 

 
I've made a ton of money shorting CMG, I lost interest in the $200's, got my attention again in the $300's, and is now calling for much more DD in the $400's.

The hiring of the Taco Bell CEO was a big deal for them, he def brings credibility and refute that is idiotic, but with a market cap of $11B and profit of $59MM this quarter, I need to ask some serious questions:

- How does a stock go up 20% when foot traffic was actually down 3%? 

- Revenue per location was up 2.2%, but they raised prices 5-7%, this is a turnaround? 

- The quality of the product has not improved at all, in fact, Chipotle is kinda gross - they've done nothing different, except maybe start skimping on guacamole.

So with declining traffic, the stock is up 20%, IDK... Seems like they have some bullish momentum running right now, but with one of the richest valuations in their vertical, I'd expect a lot of growth, not just from raising prices either. 

Keeping my eyes heavily on this one. 

 
Although I'm sticking with my plan to stay sidelined, I bought some cheap AMZN calls today with big payoffs, betting on new all-time highs tomorrow :thumbup:

This is a straight $1k bet that pays about 10-1. 

 
Capella said:
What does this mean 
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I bought some options. They come in 100 share increments - you're basically purchasing the right to buy 100 shares (per contract) at a certain price by a certain day (for me expiration is tomorrow at close), did the same for MSFT.

I need AMZN at $1,581 tomorrow to break even and MSFT at about $96.50 - if neither of those happen, I face a total loss, if they exceed those numbers, I make bank. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I bought some options. They come in 100 share increments - you're basically purchasing the right to buy 100 shares (per contract) at a certain price by a certain day (for me expiration is tomorrow at close), did the same for MSFT.

I need AMZN at $1,581 tomorrow to break even and MSFT at about $96.50 - if neither of those happen, I face a total loss, if they exceed those numbers, I make bank. 
Click to expand...
No time decay left?

 
Now I'm actually facing my biggest dilemma as an investor - I bought these calls when AMZN was $1,495, it's $1,525 - I can basically sell one and free-roll the other... I'm such a greedy ####, bc in reality, I should sell one, but I can't bring myself to do it.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Now I'm actually facing my biggest dilemma as an investor - I bought these calls when AMZN was $1,495, it's $1,525 - I can basically sell one and free-roll the other... I'm such a greedy ####, bc in reality, I should sell one, but I can't bring myself to do it.
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:Mansion:  Do you hedge out for the $500 guaranteed or let the bet roll?

 
Sand said:
:Mansion:  Do you hedge out for the $500 guaranteed or let the bet roll?
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Looking at options volatility, looks like a move of about 9% is being priced in both ways. A close of $1,525 and a 9% move gets it to $1,662, providing a profit of about $16k.

I'm into 2 calls at $14.50 each at a strike of $1,567. 

 
Kinda want to buy the $1,750 calls for 25 cents, pray on some miracle 20% move and risk $250 to make $60k. 

Put an order in at 13 cents, For $130, whatever. 

 
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Bought 2 $1,400 puts at $3.50 - I'm just betting on a big move, it's been moving around at such extremes the last few weeks.

It'll be unchanged :bag:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
All these bear funds, you're basically just hoping on a miss from AMZN & MSFT, that'll do it... 
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Actually, I don't see AMZN missing, but this is more a play on the market in general. If I #### the bed in this play, I might be walking away from the market in general as I'll be eating tuna sandwiches for quite awhile. 

 
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