What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (36 Viewers)

Anyone else buying at this dip? ... or just holding cash for the recession?

I'm considering buying back in to NFLX. Sold at $337 ... now dipping close to $300.

 
I think I'm gonna shave bond exposure down in favor of international equity and paper.  I've gotten fairly underweight internationally in last 3-4 years mostly because it seems like VT and other broad indexes have shifted onshore.  

 
Wow,  wtf happened to CAT? 

Up 4% to down 6%, their quarter looked really solid too and guidance was strong.

10% swing starting at about 1130am.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
Wow,  wtf happened to CAT? 

Up 4% to down 6%, their quarter looked really solid too and guidance was strong.

10% swing starting at about 1130am.
Click to expand...
Don't think the street like the comments from their CEO.

 

INDUSTRIAL WEAKNESS: Caterpillar had a strong first quarter, but company executives told analysts on a conference call in the late morning that the company doesn't expect to report a larger per-share profit for the rest of the year. The stock dropped 6.6 percent to $143.76.
Click to expand...
:shrug:

 
General Malaise said:
Don't think the street like the comments from their CEO.

 

:shrug:
Click to expand...
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/caterpillar-soars-on-strong-quarterly-results-and-raised-forecast-14565142

Given the strong results and higher demand across all regions, Caterpillar raised its full-year outlook and now expects 2018 profit in a range of between $9.75 and $10.75 a share, compared to its previous guidance of $7.75 and $8.75. Adjusted earnings are anticipated to be in the range of $10.25 to $11.25 a share, up from $8.25 to $9.25.
Click to expand...
Slide didn't start until well after the earnings call. The above numbers look pretty damn good to me. 

 
So this morning I moved money around a bit - sold RE, bought S&P.  So, true to form, the market turned based on my moves.  Sorry guys, my bad.

So, if you like money, buy some REITs.  Guaranteed  :moneybag:

 
FB great earnings. Looks like all tech stocks will be on fire tomorrow. Bunch of them I own or follow doing really well in after hours. Looks like I was one day early on my SQ call. 

 
I've made a ton of money shorting CMG, I lost interest in the $200's, got my attention again in the $300's, and is now calling for much more DD in the $400's.

The hiring of the Taco Bell CEO was a big deal for them, he def brings credibility and refute that is idiotic, but with a market cap of $11B and profit of $59MM this quarter, I need to ask some serious questions:

- How does a stock go up 20% when foot traffic was actually down 3%? 

- Revenue per location was up 2.2%, but they raised prices 5-7%, this is a turnaround? 

- The quality of the product has not improved at all, in fact, Chipotle is kinda gross - they've done nothing different, except maybe start skimping on guacamole.

So with declining traffic, the stock is up 20%, IDK... Seems like they have some bullish momentum running right now, but with one of the richest valuations in their vertical, I'd expect a lot of growth, not just from raising prices either. 

Keeping my eyes heavily on this one. 

 
Although I'm sticking with my plan to stay sidelined, I bought some cheap AMZN calls today with big payoffs, betting on new all-time highs tomorrow :thumbup:

This is a straight $1k bet that pays about 10-1. 

 
Capella said:
What does this mean 
Click to expand...
I bought some options. They come in 100 share increments - you're basically purchasing the right to buy 100 shares (per contract) at a certain price by a certain day (for me expiration is tomorrow at close), did the same for MSFT.

I need AMZN at $1,581 tomorrow to break even and MSFT at about $96.50 - if neither of those happen, I face a total loss, if they exceed those numbers, I make bank. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
I bought some options. They come in 100 share increments - you're basically purchasing the right to buy 100 shares (per contract) at a certain price by a certain day (for me expiration is tomorrow at close), did the same for MSFT.

I need AMZN at $1,581 tomorrow to break even and MSFT at about $96.50 - if neither of those happen, I face a total loss, if they exceed those numbers, I make bank. 
Click to expand...
No time decay left?

 
Now I'm actually facing my biggest dilemma as an investor - I bought these calls when AMZN was $1,495, it's $1,525 - I can basically sell one and free-roll the other... I'm such a greedy ####, bc in reality, I should sell one, but I can't bring myself to do it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
Now I'm actually facing my biggest dilemma as an investor - I bought these calls when AMZN was $1,495, it's $1,525 - I can basically sell one and free-roll the other... I'm such a greedy ####, bc in reality, I should sell one, but I can't bring myself to do it.
Click to expand...
:Mansion:  Do you hedge out for the $500 guaranteed or let the bet roll?

 
Sand said:
:Mansion:  Do you hedge out for the $500 guaranteed or let the bet roll?
Click to expand...
Looking at options volatility, looks like a move of about 9% is being priced in both ways. A close of $1,525 and a 9% move gets it to $1,662, providing a profit of about $16k.

I'm into 2 calls at $14.50 each at a strike of $1,567. 

 
Kinda want to buy the $1,750 calls for 25 cents, pray on some miracle 20% move and risk $250 to make $60k. 

Put an order in at 13 cents, For $130, whatever. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bought 2 $1,400 puts at $3.50 - I'm just betting on a big move, it's been moving around at such extremes the last few weeks.

It'll be unchanged :bag:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
All these bear funds, you're basically just hoping on a miss from AMZN & MSFT, that'll do it... 
Click to expand...
Actually, I don't see AMZN missing, but this is more a play on the market in general. If I #### the bed in this play, I might be walking away from the market in general as I'll be eating tuna sandwiches for quite awhile. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2025 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
77
Views
4K
Andrew74
Andrew74
Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
127
Views
8K
McBokonon
McBokonon
Joey Wright
2025-2026 NCAA College Basketball Thread
Replies
17
Views
426
gump
gump

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 1 more.
    • Total: 32 (members: 7, guests: 25)
    Back
    Top