Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
were
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They're going to retain everyone, IMO. Nonetheless, they will have to slaughter it, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if they did. If they do miss, at that juncture, I'd expect a tech correction.
If I only had one FAANG stock and couldn't own the others, it would prob be a toss-up between AMZN & GOOG, if I'm looking 10 years out, I prob lean AMZN, but who knows.
AAPL lives/dies off of one piece of hardware, one day that will be displaced. TC is a great money guy, but not an innovator. NFLX is worth as much as DIS (I mean c'mon, maybe in like 5-10 years, but not now. One prints money, the other burns it). FB is fairly priced, but they're so saturated, tough to find growth at this point.
If anyone listened to the earnings call, the drop really started going when they mentioned revenue growth deceleration in Q3/Q4. OTOH, congrats @siffoin - his favorite short. Prob a painful few months, but all comes full circle in the matter of minutes.
FB tied into a bunch of tech ETFs, tomorrow could be ugly for tech. The FAANG bulls are praying to the AMZN gods as we speak.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Looks like FB found buyers in the mid $160's, I prob would've been a buyer in the mid $150's, tbh.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Nah. We weren't renewing anyway.
I suspect it will lapse for a few months and then we'll run into a reason to renew. But my wife's cheap. She won't let anything renew just for the sake of doing so. If it only saves a month, so be it. Most everything she orders costs enough that shipping ends up being free anyway. At some point, it won't be, and she'll decide it's worth it to have it again. I really couldn't care less either way.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Having it isn't going to make me order something. Not having it won't keep me from ordering something.
The video has never hooked me. I'm sure I should make an effort to use the music service, but I'm a creature of habit above almost all things, and I'm pretty good with Spotify.
The video has never hooked me. I'm sure I should make an effort to use the music service, but I'm a creature of habit above almost all things, and I'm pretty good with Spotify.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If they were to open down here, they'd be negative on the year.
The General
Footballguy
From the twitters:
Facebook is now down 24% after hours, losing $150 billion in market cap, which is greater than the Market Cap of IBM, McDonald's and Nike.
Facebook is now down 24% after hours, losing $150 billion in market cap, which is greater than the Market Cap of IBM, McDonald's and Nike.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Crap...Still sitting on 100 shares of Facebook I bought in the 20s. Thought it was still in the low $100s so it could be worse. I own 100 shares of BA and hadn't looked at the price in months. Own one share of AMZN and check the price every other day or when Cappy drops his drawers. Bought it at $1400 a few months ago to be a member of the club here.
The General
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Jesus, FB 7/27 $175 puts were 4 cents at close, they’ll open around $5-$15 tomorrow. Let’s call it the midpoint ($10), for every $4 you invested, you’d see a return of $1,000.
$4,000 would’ve returned two commas. Oh god, for a time machine
ETA: someone is popping bubbly tonight, wish it was me
$4,000 would’ve returned two commas. Oh god, for a time machine
ETA: someone is popping bubbly tonight, wish it was me
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I posted about Tesla disconnecting with FANG a month ago and the same rings true with my current thoughts. When things are going well everyone goes up, but FANG or FAANG are all completely different companies. It’s weird that Amazon goes down when FB user numbers dip or Google goes up when Netflix users go up. I know they are lumped together but what one company does in earnings has no real impact on the others.
culdeus
Footballguy
I think they are seen as correlated to an extent. User base of technology shrinking in one space implies overall shrinking for the total market. There are probably lots of computers out there that trade on momentum and pick up on one move and move on the other stocks. Indexes could be responsible as well.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I’ve been thinking the same, funny though more for long term upside. In both at half where they are at now but have been hesitant to add. Apple is a reasonable valuation for a great company and Amazon probably turns a profit just off what my wife orders.I'm thinking Amazon or Apple. Just looking to make a few bucks in the next few months, this won't be in long term.
Sorry, but I disagree. Unless every user of FB has Netflix or every Prime member has a Tesla (ignoring AWS and Elon being crazy), their saturation points aren't the same and the driver's of their businesses aren't correlated anymore than Delta is correlated to Ford because they are transportation stocks. I think the stock values are correlated because people assume that "tech" is all the same and as they say a rising tide lifts all boats.
We just saw Google blow away their numbers and FB/Netflix disappoint. Where Amazon goes is solely dependent on their business and nothing to do with FB, Netflix and Google. I'd guess most similar to Google, but we'll see.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
TWTR reports Friday.......
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Anybody shorting or buying puts?
Sure, I bought some puts on Stryker ahead of earnings and doubled my money in 24 hours. Now, had I put that same money into FB puts, the return would have been about a 20-bagger overnight. I'm kicking myself.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
At a high level, how does one do this at say, Charles Schwab? Is it in the app? How long does a put “last”?
Asking for a stupid friend.
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culdeus
Footballguy
At Schwab, unless they changed up you are going to have to apply for the option program. They will send you some training material and maybe you have to talk to someone on the phone real fast for a quasi-interview, but that may have been Merrill, it's been awhile I forget.
Options all have expiration dates. All options are notated with their strike price and date. Syntax is something like this @FB 180727P00197500
YYMMDD(PforPut)Strike price. I think this would be for 197.5 strike, but if that last three digits means something else, sue me.
Sand
Footballguy
I'm not prescient enough to comment on whether the current trend will continue, but will drop this in here: this year the best performing stocks were way on the growth side - the most expensive stocks have gotten that much more expensive.
That's pretty unusual. But these are the markets and they can stay irrational for quite a while.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Sept 25s on IQ for around $1 each tomorrow, assuming it opens around after hours prices. You want somewhere to put your $5k for a few months, I'm guessing you could do worse. Worst case you end up owning Chinese Netflix in the 23s.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Everything I find to be interested in seems way overpriced. It's both glorious and disheartening.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Well, I guess worst case you own it at $0. But that seems remote-ish.
sbonomo
Footballguy
Closer to 15k on a complete hunch. I sold half (7.5 gain) but still down 3.5 today. I am going to double up tomorrow (I hate the fundamentals and truly believe it will die at some point). Put in an order for 30 fb calls as well at open tomorrow. Let’s see what happens. Thx for the response.
What? So, Amazon has HP laptops. Has HP had a huge run up the past couple years? By your correlation every AWS client is pretty correlated to Amazon. How come MLB attendance is going down when Amazon’s revenues are going up?
I’m sure you thought that was a tricky reply but unless Netflix is 10% or more of Amazon’s revenue (hint they aren’t) the growth in Netflix <> Amazon’s growth and doesn’t move the needle enough to be pretty correlated. Pretty correlated to me would be UPS or FedEx and Amazon. If Amazon’s shipments dropped 25%, you know both of those guys are going to have tough quarters. Will we know Netflix will have a rough quarter in the same scenario? I sure don’t think so. Only way they are correlated is if the entire market is going up/down because the US economy is doing well or sucking but that’s everybody.
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Bossman
Footballguy
Judgement day today.
Interesting that after hours / pre-market has amzn down $20.
Either people are expecting a below avg report ... or are FB / NFLX shockwaves bringing it down?
I don't see the connection unless it's a FAANG selloff thing as people are trying to unload FB/NFLX and it's connected by ETF or a mutual fund.
Capella
Footballguy
It's a bit of an overreaction on the other stocks about FB. When they originally announced decrease users, the stock dropped about $8-$10 per share. At first I thought that was a bit harsh, because FB isn't a subscription based company. Sure, they make more money through advertising with less users but they don't receive a fee per user and they still have a dominant market share. it was only until profitability going forward was going to come under pressure was stated by the CFO that the stock got destroyed.
That being said, FB's PE is ~36. NFLX and AMZN's PE are both well above 200 and both subscription driven. It's a bit odd that they all fall on air (along with GOOG).
If I were a buyer, I'd be tempted to buy GOOG. I also think AMZN posts solid numbers, so not overly concerned with them. NFLX would concern me a bit, because I love the product, but at the current valuation, they need the stars to perfectly align to continue to add share price. They are spending a #### ton of money each year on content and are facing competition more and more each year be it from Disney, IQ, AMZN, etc.... again I love NFLX but am skeptical of their share price right now.
That being said, FB's PE is ~36. NFLX and AMZN's PE are both well above 200 and both subscription driven. It's a bit odd that they all fall on air (along with GOOG).
If I were a buyer, I'd be tempted to buy GOOG. I also think AMZN posts solid numbers, so not overly concerned with them. NFLX would concern me a bit, because I love the product, but at the current valuation, they need the stars to perfectly align to continue to add share price. They are spending a #### ton of money each year on content and are facing competition more and more each year be it from Disney, IQ, AMZN, etc.... again I love NFLX but am skeptical of their share price right now.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
As culdeus said, you have to apply to trade options. I believe that would be for any firm. There are different levels of approval that allow you to do different strategies. Here are the option approval levels at Schwab. To buy puts, you need to be at Level 1. I think everyone starts at 0, but it has been awhile since I applied. You will have to re-apply in the future if you want to be at a higher level.. IIRC, I was able to move up to 1 pretty fast, but had to wait to get to 3.
http://help.sspro.schwab.com/4.18/Option_Approval_Levels.htm
Also, this is the site I always recommend to learn. Lots of free info and training.
https://www.optionseducation.org/en.html
ETA- Also, with regard to how long a put "lasts", while it does have an expiration, you always have the option of closing out the position early to end your risk. If you buy a put ("Buy To Open"), you would "Sell To Close". This allows you to lock in a gain,or cut a loss without being vulnerable to what happens until expiration date. And, if you sold the option, which obligates you to buy or sell stock, closing the position eliminates your obligation.
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Sand
Footballguy
Given that they are such huge movers in ETFs this doesn't surprise me at the least. Also, retail traders panicking. I don't own FB, so get to kick my feet up today.
(On the other hand I own a tonload of CVX, so my reckoning is tonight.)
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Actually, kind of like the set up for AMZN.
@fantasycurse42 Are you going to short TWTR? Wondering what puts you would buy. TIA
@fantasycurse42 Are you going to short TWTR? Wondering what puts you would buy. TIA
Capella
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Just CVX. My dad worked there (Texaco, actually) and I got some stock when he passed. I don't have the heart to sell it.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
What do you think the swing for AMZN will be? About $150 one way or another?
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
I think you nailed it... ATM ($1815) straddle (buy 1815 Call; Buy $1815 Put) is trading at about $106 (expected move). Seems the tech have been moving about 1.25-1.55X expected move lately.
