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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

I feel like such a dope sitting with my money in the market watching everything crash.  At the end of every day thinking well I missed my chance to take action, and then watching it repeat the next day.  

 
Considering moving another 10% from the money market into the casino at close. I mean, I'm getting January 2018 prices.

 
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proteus126 said:
tommyGunZ said:
Fun to watch the CNBC free marketers begging for the govt to step in.  Such hypocrites. 
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At work so can't watch.  What intervention are they begging for?  Market intervention, or something else?  The market is just going to have to play this out.
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They've been mentioning 🚁 Money.... Guess they figure we might as well go for the 2 Trillion dollar in debt mark.

 
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Does KSA really have the space to put all that oil?   If the world legit shuts down at what point do they have to drink it ?

 
Lacey said:
I feel like such a dope sitting with my money in the market watching everything crash.  At the end of every day thinking well I missed my chance to take action, and then watching it repeat the next day.  
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Don't feel dopey. A lot of us are in same boat. Just ride it out. Maybe even buy more on these low days.

Now, if you said you planned on retiring in the next couple years...

 
Wells Fargo (WFC) giving a 6% yield now. I'm well aware of their problems but WFC at 6% with a newly-installed Scharf just seems bonkers.

 
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 

 
xulf said:
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 
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I'm the same way.  Have some cash I could move to equities but in the past I've always been too much in a hurry to see the bottom or think it's near.  This type instability tends to last for longer than most can stand and that pushes the capitulation.

 
xulf said:
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 
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25% seems like best case scenario. 

 
xulf said:
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 
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The algorithms/technical analysis/analytics have turned things into foregone conclusions and the markets just go there with no delay. It’s crazy and makes timing so much more dangerous. One article about a successful vaccine testing and your head would spin.

There are a lot of solid bargains now. HQY is one I follow and on February 20th the put out their member numbers and guided up 2020 and 2021 revenue/estimate numbers. The stock jumped to mid 80s. It’s now 40% down at 55. So a 40% haircut for a company who guided up future results. I get that things could get bad but they are not related to travel, tourism or China in any way. It’s amazing some of the bargains. If the stock had done well the profit taking seems even more severe which seems funny because there were good reasons the stock was doing well. Definitely a lot of babies going out with the bathwater so to speak.

 
I've been slowly unwinding my hedges over the past couple of weeks (selling some GLD, selling some SPY puts) and have been buying last week and a little more today. New positions in XLF, XM, AGRX. I wouldn't mind lowering my cost basis on oil stocks (XOM and RDS) but don't want to try to catch the knife. Just holding those. Added a bit to positions in AAPL and AMZN. Happy with ZM which went from 106 to 115 promptly after I bought today. Not happy with much else. Another drop into the 22K range, and I am pushing all in, although I'll hold my solitary S&P put, kind of like a last poker chip, for the-end-of days scenario. I only have about 10% of my portfolio left in cash so I'm hoping we're near the bottom, but prepared to deploy that cash for the 22K level if it comes to that. Any lower and I'm going down with the ship.

 
xulf said:
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 
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That is not how wall street steals Joe Retails hard earned $. Gotta inflict pain and get him to hate the stock market. Once he gives up, we go up.

 
Subway had no bread. Is that a result of China? I know they bake it at the stores. Are the ingredients made in China?

 
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xulf said:
Everything is just happening so fast, it is nuts...and absolutely fascinating.  Im normally a set it an forget it type of person and only peak at the markets every so often.  I can't look away right now.

With the speed of everything that is happening, lets just get to 25% down, and start heading back up already. 
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Totally agree, quicker the better at this point. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Do you guys think this is as bad as it could get for the cruise ship industry at this point? 
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Very real possibility that these companies go bankrupt and equity holders are wiped out.  I'd much rather take my bets with battered oil stocks - XOM, CVX, EPD, etc.

Still eyeing DIS hard.  I bought about 100 shares and am now 8% down on that.  I'll keep adding if that hits 10% or 20%.  It will recover at some point.

 
I don’t see any possible route these companies go bankrupt. Americans looooooooooooooooove their cruises. For a lot it’s their only form of travel. When corona drops down they’ll slash their rates and fill their ships. I could be wrong but bankruptcy seems implausible to me. 

 
Capella said:
I don’t see any possible route these companies go bankrupt. Americans looooooooooooooooove their cruises. For a lot it’s their only form of travel. When corona drops down they’ll slash their rates and fill their ships. I could be wrong but bankruptcy seems implausible to me. 
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Just looked at CCL's debt and it isn't too bad.  So they have a fighting chance to stay above water.  I wouldn't count on the dividend staying, though.

 
Capella said:
I don’t see any possible route these companies go bankrupt. Americans looooooooooooooooove their cruises. For a lot it’s their only form of travel. When corona drops down they’ll slash their rates and fill their ships. I could be wrong but bankruptcy seems implausible to me. 
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Is it Americans in general, or Boomer Americans?

I would not be surprised to see attitudes change in a hurry. 

In terms of financials, Carnival has a decent amount of (newer) long term debt.

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/9ba84dfd-b96a-486f-8617-34e49820077a

Maintaining a bunch of empty boats, including brand new boats, while servicing that debt is going to be painful. 

 
The General said:
If you want to buy a travel pummeled stock I'd think airlines are better than cruise ships. 
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much higher chance of some form of bailout imo.

Though, I could totally see some of these industries getting some sorta FEMA-like relief. Not terribly crazy about that idea, but it does make sense in terms of disaster relief policy. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Though, I could totally see some of these industries getting some sorta FEMA-like relief. Not terribly crazy about that idea, but it does make sense in terms of disaster relief policy. 
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Airlines have been raking it in.  They should be able to handle this - talking intervention (by media talking heads) now is a bit crazy.  Let the markets work and see what shakes out.

 
Sand said:
Airlines have been raking it in.  They should be able to handle this - talking intervention (by media talking heads) now is a bit crazy.  Let the markets work and see what shakes out.
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Have you seen AAL's balance sheet lately?   It's not pretty.  

UAL and others are doing great.  It's going to pay to be picky coming out of this.  AAL could roll over.  

 
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