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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
This market is truly getting impossible to predict. Things were hard enough to predict without this whole Oil thing. Three weeks ago—I felt confident that our election was pretty much established (I dont want to get political—but I was expecting a Trump victory—Im not so sure now) I felt like our government was more prepared for the Coronavirus (I was brutally wrong), and while I didn’t agree with the cutting of the interest rates—I thought they would instill some more confidence in our buyers. If i remember right—i believe that there is some stat that our economy is 70% consumer driven. Earlier in the thread I mentioned that I felt like the virus would have a short to moderate term impact on our markets because of the supply chain damages it caused—but that there might be a second and less impactful wave of damage to our markets due to the negative spending that this virus and stigma to our markets have caused. I’m starting to think that this potential second wave could be bigger than I thought. I just can’t imagine people going back to spending as freely as they did the moment things start to improve. People are going to keep their cars longer before replacing them, I don’t see people dropping $1000 plus on a new phone if their current smart phone has no major issues..etc. I still think we will be fine long term—and I do think the opportunity for long term value is there—but I don’t think we are going to be out of choppy waters for a while.
Unless you think industries fail and unemployment spikes dramatically, why do you think this experience will make people more frugal?
Possible bear market rally coming. Fed/Trump making desperation move tomorrow.: tax cut...QE #726....free everything...just spend $ and help us out will ya.
Max target 2920 says mancini and beastly beast among others. https://twitter.com/BeastlyBTC/status/1237139475865583616/photo/1
$SPX Decided to washout below that 2720 level once again and it has quickly recovered so far. This is a fake break-down which is frequently a strong reversal pattern. Setup for relief bounce to 2900-2920 still here but this is last chance for bulls and that latest low must hold.
Talking heads talking major BS right now. Economy is great....blah blah blah. Buy stocks...blah blah blah. sorry, coronavirus isn't going away.
Max target 2920 says mancini and beastly beast among others. https://twitter.com/BeastlyBTC/status/1237139475865583616/photo/1
$SPX Decided to washout below that 2720 level once again and it has quickly recovered so far. This is a fake break-down which is frequently a strong reversal pattern. Setup for relief bounce to 2900-2920 still here but this is last chance for bulls and that latest low must hold.
Talking heads talking major BS right now. Economy is great....blah blah blah. Buy stocks...blah blah blah. sorry, coronavirus isn't going away.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I'm betting tomorrow will be green.
Still doing research on market reaction after biggest point drop days.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
I bought 6 stocks I had been watching for a while. A few of them lower than any point and all but 1 of them lost 10%+ today. I’m done buying for a bit until the dust settles again. 2/3rds of the purchase was actually from selling some shares of a stock I liked less. Commission free trades in an IRA so no cost or taxes to worry about. Kind of nice. I still see downward pressure but I couldn’t watch them when I didn’t love one of my other stocks anymore. Still at around 15-20% cash so still bargain hunting if we go lower.
By the way to whoever asked me about the stocks I was in, I feel bad. SFIX is getting killed tomorrow. They lowered revenue guidance for the next quarter. They were never a company I really wanted even though I saw them recommended a few times. Definitely not touching them now. All the stuff I bought had been having great earnings and I think most of not all had just raised guidance for future years. No guarantees but those are the babies getting thrown out with the bath water.
culdeus
Footballguy
Ok, we are 12 days in from case 40. China broke out of the exponential growth at nearly exactly Day 30. They still haven't fully turned their factories on yet, but they have a handle on it.
Italy is about 8 days in front of us and they are 10 days from a breakpoint.
The buy points are in 3/16 - 3/20. Give us a peek at what Italy manages to do, and confirm China is turned back on.
Panic selling starts when schools shutter.
If I had balls I'd buy SPX 200 puts. I think we are closer to 200 than 300 by St. Patrick's day.
Italy is about 8 days in front of us and they are 10 days from a breakpoint.
The buy points are in 3/16 - 3/20. Give us a peek at what Italy manages to do, and confirm China is turned back on.
Panic selling starts when schools shutter.
If I had balls I'd buy SPX 200 puts. I think we are closer to 200 than 300 by St. Patrick's day.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
People were trained and programmed to spend fairly freely being that we had a bull market for several years straight. In my opinion—impactful and catastrophic moments generally lead to developing safer habits—and spending is one of them. Besides that—I do think that we could be seeing some unemployment spikes coming up. The tourism and travel industries will suffer some losses—as will retail. Events are getting cancelled right and left—which means the employees whose job it was to man those events might be compromised. I just don’t think peoples spending habits will just go back to 100% right out of this. I fully admit that I might be wrong—and I actually hope that I am.
cosjobs
Footballguy
so far..
If google, amazon, ms, costco, etc, start getting staggered with 10-15% hits, then we start getting juicy buy opportunities all over the board
culdeus
Footballguy
Bonfire
Footballguy
If it's not giving away the secret sauce recipe, curious how you determined these amounts if you will share?
shadrap
Footballguy
10-15% more? Google is down 20%. Microsoft is down more than 20% and Amazon is down 18%. Only Costco hasn't been hit much, but they are a company that's clearly benefiting from this environment.
shadrap
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
Took @siffoin advice and bought 11k shares of TAIL after liquidating a lot and it was up 5.98% today and 12.02% since I bought last Monday. I also exchanged all my non Brokeragelink investments (US Lg Cap) for our Total Return Bond and that's been an 8.46% gain since the exchange last week. Futures show up as of now, I'm hoping that holds as if it does I'll liquidate the rest of my holdings and shelter them in TAIL for the next few weeks. We aren;'t trending higher in the short term and who knows how bad the pain will be if we wake up in 3 weeks and there's 25k cases confirmed, add in the "who's got the bigger *ock" fight between Russia and SA
Sand
Footballguy
No secret sauce. 23.6% is a Fibonacci treatment level. Lots of folks key in on that level - technical traders, Elliott wave folks, etc. I just figure if we breach 20% lots of folks will see that as a bounce level, so I'll dip in a little early there. Nothing real special, just something to help me mentally when putting money into a dropping market; fear of loss is going to cause hesitation. I'm naturally pretty risk averse so want these mental structures to help guide my emotions. It's a reasonable spot to buy in low.
I've lost plenty here, so not so smart, maybe. 13% or so. Only smart thing I did was dump CVX at 100. Big position. Then today got hammered by EPD and MMP - had those since 2008, but never really saw the counterparty risk that a 35% sudden drop in oil may cause. Who knew. Much smaller positions, though. Only buy I've made is some Disney and I may buy more. 5 years from now I'll be way in the black. So really I've pretty much sat back and gotten clobbered.
This is a unique market. One completely external black swan compounds with a geolpolitical black swan (where is SA going to store all that crude?). I doubt I'll see it's like again and I refrain from being upset I didn't see this. I'm not a trader by nature. In general time in the market trumps market timing.
Oh, and I do not have a flat ###.
Sand
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
DIS was one of the stocks I liquidated for TAIL last week. I think you'd be better served waiting a few weeks/months before adding to your position
Sand
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
I agree with Disney, I loved it as a long term play with the addition of Disney+. It's high was $151, I bailed at $125, a loss of 17% of the high but basically flat from where I bought it. Since selling I avoided the additional 15% or so drop and made a 12% profit in my exchange. We have to be very careful in these times, super smart, super sharp. Minor decisions can have major consequences.
For example, let's for exercise sake say someone has 500k in an account. If they stay pat and weather the storm and end up at 350K when we bottom out. Now that sucks but on the other hand everything they were in is also discounted 30%. Seems like a great buying time right? But, and this is a stretch, but what if you made the correct moves and protected yourself during this downturn and and it's bottom you were even at 500k or even up a bit at 550k. Think of the buying power you now have. Just food for thought
For example, let's for exercise sake say someone has 500k in an account. If they stay pat and weather the storm and end up at 350K when we bottom out. Now that sucks but on the other hand everything they were in is also discounted 30%. Seems like a great buying time right? But, and this is a stretch, but what if you made the correct moves and protected yourself during this downturn and and it's bottom you were even at 500k or even up a bit at 550k. Think of the buying power you now have. Just food for thought
Penguin
Footballguy
Another exercise that I typically go thru with my friends and family is something like this...
You have 100k invested, a major downturn happens and you lose 50%, you now have 50k.
The market has a major upswing, you gained 50% (on your 50k) you now are sitting at 75k, down 25k or 25%
You have 100k invested, a major downturn happens and you lose 50%, you now have 50k.
The market has a major upswing, you gained 50% (on your 50k) you now are sitting at 75k, down 25k or 25%
I teach this to my math students. It is mind blowing but most get it after a good 15 minutes of thought and explanation. Percents are tricky.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Todem
Footballguy
Dead cat Bounce.Now dow futures UP 1000pts
We are not done with this crazy volatility. Like Sand I am looking for a breach of 20% off the all-time high....that is when I start backing up the truck, put the dry powder to work (have 25% cash) and go long again....even if it drops another 5-7% from being down plus 20%......they don’t ring a bell to let us know when the bottom has been put in. But there is simply too much news yet to come, potential school shutdowns, theme park shutdowns....I am not saying it is a definite thing....but the fear of that is certainly out there. It is simply too early in the virus cycle here in the US to feel like yesterday was the bottom. I simply do not see that. And if another big interest rate cut comes....I don’t think that calms markets. That incites more selling. The market is fully acting like we are going into a recession. So more selling is on the table short term.
I want to be wrong. But my experience in the markets tells me we have more pain ahead before we sling shot back to the February highs by year end if at all in 2020. But long term we are bulls as always.
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culdeus
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1237299239375572993
KSA shipping beyond their ability to produce. Can't go on forever.
Take note those watching XOM.
KSA shipping beyond their ability to produce. Can't go on forever.
Take note those watching XOM.
The General
Footballguy
Yep. That’s why I put just a little new money in yesterday and mainly used a stock I needed to diversify out of a bit (sold 85% of it). Not only are those new ones up overall the one I sold is down. I like the new ones better even if they still have a bit of downside. The one I sold was “only” down 5% so relatively speaking I bought the new ones cheaper and feel better about their long term. Still have 80% of my cash left for the real bottom! Might sell a bit of another stock as well. I kind of liked doing that rather than risk new cash just yet. Helps diversify and there are some nice bargains that might get even better.
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CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
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hagmania
Footballguy
Was concerned what might happen when it dipped red the first time. Seems to not be a frenzy just yet, which is a good sign.
Wasn't sure whether to use the LOL button for the witty saying or the Sad button for stocks going down.... stupid emojis and their lack of nuance.
Yeah because they were bubblicious at their peak. if recession hits, everything becomes a sell. recession is pretty much a given regardless of the talking heads say. Just look at what is happening.
