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Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

humpback said:
I replied to one of your posts, which said "restaurants and other local business will very likely get back to where they were. Could even be a bump at the start due to the cooped up public." Since then you seem to have changed your tune to say that maybe they won't but places like grocery stores and Target, Amazon, etc. will get a boost. That's a big fat red herring because that wasn't even part of the conversation, and you seem to actually agree with me now. It would be a lot easier if you just admitted that instead of picking an i-fight all the time.  :thumbup:
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Whatever. I tried to answer your questions and all you do is tell people why they are wrong. Do you really think I proof read everything I type on here. Train of thought, who cares. I again do think things will recover quicker than you think. There will be winners and losers but 95% of people don’t really save and being cooped up will being a lot of people out in droves when allowed. I’m done replying so feel free to add your two cents, I’m good. 

 
humpback said:
Well, that's what you said a week ago.  :shrug:

There is a ton of middle ground between your "it's going to $350 in 3 years" and "total bear and think we are doomed". I mean, by definition we are in a bear market right now, but obviously everyone knows we will get out of it at some point. What is completely unknown is when, and how quickly we will rebound when we do. Boeing is bleeding cash right now, they are literally worth less every day than the day prior. The most likely thing that will stop the bleeding is a government bailout, but that will almost certainly come with plenty of stipulations. In this political climate, do you think it's likely that they just throw money at them, no questions asked? Do you think those stipulations generally will be good for shareholders? I mean, they'll be better than bankruptcy, but not as good as no stipulations.

This is probably my biggest gripe in all of this- it is absolutely not as simple as "are you a bull or a bear on the USA".
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Please......quote me where I said Boeing will be at $350 in a year.

BEar markets last typically 12-18 months......anyway.

 
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Todem said:
Please......quote me where I said Boeing will be at $350 in a year.
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I only put the lower end of your target and left out the "easy" part.  :shrug:

Todem said:
BA is one of the most obvious monsters IMO.

So much negativity around it right now. In one year they will be over $350-360 a share easy. There are ton’s of great stocks out there to hit singles, doubles and some triples with. A few homers with patience as well. 

Today let’s hope the relief rally can hold.....I am exhausted LOL. I fully expect a retest next week and that is when i am going to deploy the cash I have and go long. 

A simply astonishing week we just had. Historic in the speed of the selloff. And a lot has to do with the cap weighted ETF dumping. All computer driven to meet redemptions. Also massive margin calls yesterday.....just pure panic. 
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GoBirds said:
Thoughts on BRK B at these levels? I’ve always steered clear with the age of Buffet thinking I missed the bus but is it a good play long term?
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I little down here. I understand those age concerns with Buffet....but the company is well run. And their holdings are outstanding. 

But for a 1 year turnaround play.....you are looking at 15-20% upside. And it does not pay any dividend. Long term it has always been a solid performer. 

 
Anyone buying BA, by the way, if you have 100 shares at say $100 cost, you can sell a covered call with strike price of $110 for next Friday and get about a grand in premium. It means you have to sell at $110 next week if it hits (gain of 20% in one week, if you add the premium with the rise in stock price). Or if it is still below $110, you hold the shares. Very rich call premiums. It’s a nice hedge unless you are hellbent on going long and don’t want to trade it. 

 
So why do the airlines like DAL and AAL jump out the gate and shoot up like 15% by around 11 or so, then come crashing down back where they were?  Is the fix in?

So people loved all the bailout talk and now they dont?

Some bad news in general come out?  Market down a couple percent in like an hour.

 
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Stock buybacks are the first indication your organization is out of good ideas, and they're actually bad for shareholders because, in addition to the financial ramifications in times like these, they make companies lazy/complacent.

Holes> poke them

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Stock buybacks are the first indication your organization is out of good ideas, and they're actually bad for shareholders because, in addition to the financial ramifications in times like these, they make companies lazy/complacent.

Holes> poke them
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If you cannot grow, might as well pretend to grow. 

😉

 
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Freak Show said:
I'll probably never own Disney stock. I'm looking to buy between 70 and 75
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You can sell a DIS put for April 17th with a strike price of $75 which means you buy the stock at that price come April 17th no matter how low it is at that point. The premium for selling that put is $380 so you can pretend to buy it, make $380 (you'll need $7500 in cash to secure the put) and you can make money while you wait to buy it. That's a 5% return in one month for something you want to buy anyway.

 
pecorino said:
You can sell a DIS put for April 17th with a strike price of $75 which means you buy the stock at that price come April 17th no matter how low it is at that point. The premium for selling that put is $380 so you can pretend to buy it, make $380 (you'll need $7500 in cash to secure the put) and you can make money while you wait to buy it. That's a 5% return in one month for something you want to buy anyway.
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How does exercising the option work for your average online brokerage account? Do they contact you as you approach the expiration to make sure you are going to fund the purchase, etc.?

 
pecorino said:
You can sell a DIS put for April 17th with a strike price of $75 which means you buy the stock at that price come April 17th no matter how low it is at that point. The premium for selling that put is $380 so you can pretend to buy it, make $380 (you'll need $7500 in cash to secure the put) and you can make money while you wait to buy it. That's a 5% return in one month for something you want to buy anyway.
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I don't understand... you can name your price on a stock if you are willing to wait a month?

 
pecorino said:
You can sell a DIS put for April 17th with a strike price of $75 which means you buy the stock at that price come April 17th no matter how low it is at that point. The premium for selling that put is $380 so you can pretend to buy it, make $380 (you'll need $7500 in cash to secure the put) and you can make money while you wait to buy it. That's a 5% return in one month for something you want to buy anyway.
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lol

 
Well, this market crash has helped me to not feel like the worst investor of all time.      I've been buying stocks since the last crash, but I had a chunk of money that I had always been keeping aside because I was skittish.     Basically every investing article over the last 10 years says "you're an idiot" and it was pretty hard to not feel that way after the way the past year went.     Even a couple months ago I almost said "screw it the herd was right, I was wrong" but resisted the temptation because I couldn't shake the feeling stocks were overvalued.    Now a pandemic hitting doesn't say I wasn't an idiot entirely, but still almost all of that damage has been undone in a span of 2 weeks and it's nice to feel fairly good while others are panicing.     Now gotta figure out where to not be an idiot this time...   

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
How does exercising the option work for your average online brokerage account? Do they contact you as you approach the expiration to make sure you are going to fund the purchase, etc.?
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You hold the equivalent needed to make the purchase in your account. It's cash-secured, basically. So at the $75 strike price, you need to hold $7500 for every put you write. If it's below that price at expiration, they'll automatically conduct the transaction (They'll take your $7500 and give you 100 shares). If it's above, the put will expire and you keep the premium.

 
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JerseyToughGuys said:
How does exercising the option work for your average online brokerage account? Do they contact you as you approach the expiration to make sure you are going to fund the purchase, etc.?
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You have already funded the purchase with your available cash. In that scenario, your existing $7500 in cash will be locked away until the option expires. If DIS hits $75 or below on the expiration date, the broker will automatically assign the 100 shares to you at the $75 price using that $7500 (keep in mind if it plummets to, say, $65, you still buy at $75. That's the risk.) 

If it closes above $75 on the expiration date, the option expires worthless, you keep the premium, and your $7500 is free again.

I've been writing puts and selling calls every day during this. The premiums are insane. It's really helped me raise a bunch of cash while this is happening and I haven't been assigned any stocks yet.

 
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dkp993 said:
Yeah I’ve been in the business 25 years as a general manager, regional manager and owner.  Some will certainly survive, but it’s going to devastate the industry.
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A regular couple came in and gave us a check for a grand today. We’ve had a ton of support from the community. We’re doing takeout and have a carry out license for beer/wine so we’re doing enough business to pay for food/2 people. I’m scared to death that I’ll get someone sick (I’m not sick and I’ve been temping 4x daily with the family nor have I had symptoms, still scared.) But it looks better as the owner tries to secure funding to weather the storm. 

 
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DrJ said:
Well, this market crash has helped me to not feel like the worst investor of all time.      I've been buying stocks since the last crash, but I had a chunk of money that I had always been keeping aside because I was skittish.     Basically every investing article over the last 10 years says "you're an idiot" and it was pretty hard to not feel that way after the way the past year went.     Even a couple months ago I almost said "screw it the herd was right, I was wrong" but resisted the temptation because I couldn't shake the feeling stocks were overvalued.    Now a pandemic hitting doesn't say I wasn't an idiot entirely, but still almost all of that damage has been undone in a span of 2 weeks and it's nice to feel fairly good while others are panicing.     Now gotta figure out where to not be an idiot this time...   
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This is a good lesson because 10 years ago the S&P was around 1100. That means even with the losses of the past month, if you had left that chunk in the market it would have been more than double. If you were smart enough to pull out in January or February you would have tripled that chunk. Even though you feel better about the last month you still would have a lot more if you just let it ride. If you have a 10 year horizon pulling out after a crash and not putting it back in is pretty much always a losing proposition even with a bear market at the end of those 10 years.

 
stbugs said:
This is a good lesson because 10 years ago the S&P was around 1100. That means even with the losses of the past month, if you had left that chunk in the market it would have been more than double. If you were smart enough to pull out in January or February you would have tripled that chunk. Even though you feel better about the last month you still would have a lot more if you just let it ride. If you have a 10 year horizon pulling out after a crash and not putting it back in is pretty much always a losing proposition even with a bear market at the end of those 10 years.
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Made some decisions in the 2009 area I still regret.  

 
pecorino said:
You can sell a DIS put for April 17th with a strike price of $75 which means you buy the stock at that price come April 17th no matter how low it is at that point. The premium for selling that put is $380 so you can pretend to buy it, make $380 (you'll need $7500 in cash to secure the put) and you can make money while you wait to buy it. That's a 5% return in one month for something you want to buy anyway.
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These type moves were some of the better ones I made last downturn.  Probably the worst any turned out was I never had the stock "put" to me and "only" collected those premiums.

 
stbugs said:
This is a good lesson because 10 years ago the S&P was around 1100. That means even with the losses of the past month, if you had left that chunk in the market it would have been more than double. If you were smart enough to pull out in January or February you would have tripled that chunk. Even though you feel better about the last month you still would have a lot more if you just let it ride. If you have a 10 year horizon pulling out after a crash and not putting it back in is pretty much always a losing proposition even with a bear market at the end of those 10 years.
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Yep, no question.   It wasn't out the entire 10 years but a good enough chunk of it that it was fairly painful to think about especially as I compounded it out another 25-30 years.     It's probably still about a 30% difference as it stands today, I gotta rerun my spreadsheet when the numbers update tonight or tomorrow or whatever haha.           But that is dramatically better than before and a whole lot less psychologically painful.        Especially considering I could save that kind of dough in a year or so by tightening our budget some.       

And what makes it worse is that as you note, had I not been an idiot I very well may have made some better decisions going into this.    For example I would have felt better about taking some profits and going with my gut feeling that this was all overvalued, but I got myself trapped saying "I'm an idiot, everyone says to buy buy buy and they've been right forever, I'm not gonna make this even worse and sell anything".         Still an idiot, but an idiot with a new chance at this.    And some poor decisions and experiences I can learn from.     Now I can do better.

 
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And yeah I'd say that's one of the big lessons I've learned between this one and the last one.     Is there gonna be short term pain?   Yeah, for sure.    But reality is the DOW is gonna be some ridiculous figure in 20 years because the government will just print up 70 quadrillion dollars.     There's no other real choice, otherwise you can't pay back the however many quadrillion dollars you borrowed before.    And Apple and Amazon or whoever it is 20 years from now is still gonna make all of those quadrillions of dollars... 

 
pecorino said:
What’s funny? I’m trying to help him make some money. Sure, selling puts in a downturn can be harrowing but they can also be lucrative. And if you truly want to own that stock at that price, it is a reasonable strategy.
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Another strategy is.....if you love the stock....buy half and sell a put for the other half and if you don’t get it.....you simply lowered the cost basis on the lot you bought. If it is put to you......well you wanted it anyway. 

I have two clients who love selling out of the money puts on stocks they want to own and once the wild swings are over and we find a trading range.....we will start doing that to enhance the dividend yield on the portfolio. And like we know......if they get put the stock they wanted it anyway. 

It is a great strategy for those that understand it. 

 
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gonna be doing a lot of homework this week...want to pounce if we see another downturn.  I can't see any huge weekly gains for a few weeks so I think I have time.

 
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If the dang FED would just let the stock market drop to where it belongs, myself and many others would willingly jump back in with both feet.

I'm sitting on a very very large chunk of cash after pulling everything out ... as is many others I'm sure. Just waiting for the right time to get back in.

Fed dumps trillions into the market before we get to the "re-entry" point that we're all looking for. Now what?

Now we sit and wait some more for that re-entry point and BANG Fed dumps another trillion.

Meanwhile we're all sitting on the cash needed to make the markets right ...  which we would rather not be doing .. since that's decaying with every rate cut.

This is so stoopit. 

 
Curious.  What will the news about the airline bailouts do to their stock monday?  I have to sell it anyway to get that money switched over into my Roth.  

Just wondering if I should sell right away or was that actually a positive?

 
Todem said:
Thank you!!!
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Apology accepted?  :lol:

Now that we've put that behind us, can we all agree that none of us "knows" what's going to happen? Just because I may have a different opinion than you doesn't make me a "total bear who thinks we are doomed". These are unprecedented moves we've been seeing, which makes sense because these are unprecedented circumstances. Time will tell how it all shakes out, but I think it's only prudent to consider the possibility that this isn't going to be a short term issue with a quick v-shaped recovery.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Curious.  What will the news about the airline bailouts do to their stock monday?  I have to sell it anyway to get that money switched over into my Roth.  

Just wondering if I should sell right away or was that actually a positive?
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That's the interesting part imo. 

If the story is true of airlines agreeing to not pay dividends or buy more stock back until the loans are paid, you'd think the stocks become less valuable. But, any increased confidence in the airlines actually making it through the hard times successfully, would increase their value. 

I've only bought a very small amount of JETS, thinking they dropped too much. I think it increases long term but perhaps not as much as other stocks.

 
-OZ- said:
That's the interesting part imo. 

If the story is true of airlines agreeing to not pay dividends or buy more stock back until the loans are paid, you'd think the stocks become less valuable. But, any increased confidence in the airlines actually making it through the hard times successfully, would increase their value. 

I've only bought a very small amount of JETS, thinking they dropped too much. I think it increases long term but perhaps not as much as other stocks.
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I’m buying some of this or my preferred airline Delta next week. This JETS seems safer. 

 
JETS seem interesting.  Basically betting that air travel exists again at some point.  Seems like a good bet to double not too long after there is any good news out there

 
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