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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

TripItUp said:
Trump presser was a big deal...market begging for a reason to buy.   Also, Tuesdays have been good.  Also, positive stimulus news at night.   Also, Ackman news.  We had just tested 4 year low at 18.5K Dow

Too many plus datapoints impacting perception.
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Everyone is trigger happy, don't want to miss out on the rise.

Steeler said:
What do we think of ZM?  
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Pissed that I didn't buy in 2 weeks ago. 

Good for future growth IMO

 
stbugs said:
Might be. My stocks are all over the place, some still up a lot, some down (not as much). Just feels like it’s a mixed bag day. I still have a nice % of cash (not nearly as much as the people who pulled all out) so I wouldn’t mind retesting some lows to move that cash back in. Wednesday was a better day than I thought to push some in but oh well. I think I’ll get another chance.
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Monday......the last two Mondays have proven the best days to buy. I expect the same. 

Fridays are typically bloody as traders don’t want to be long into the weekend.....but that has always been a head fake day. I never ever buy on Friday.

Ever.

I think Monday will another whoosh day to buy in again at lower valuations.

 
Random said:
If I may..  You should get a portion (75%) back in asap.  Good move going 100% cash when you did, but very very risky with your entire portfolio.  Getting out at the right time is only half the battle.  Lock in that massive win for yourself.  Use the other 25% (or whatever) as "play money".  
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Good stuff in here. What advice would you give for someone who’s been on the sidelines since about half way through the crash? Dow was at about 24000 for reference. 

 
SayWhat? said:
JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?
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Odds are strong this is a false bottom and we'll see some pullback once deaths start piling up. It's been posted numerous times that bear rallies are the strongest. 

Could be a true shift but I don't see how considering we have months of pain and thousands of deaths just over the horizon. 

I'm still ~60% cash and the GF is still 90% cash.  Missed a good opportunity to buy in a bit more at what COULD have been a bottom but I'm not solid 100%

Disclaimer: Not an expert

 
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cosjobs said:
I would not be surprised if this pandemic let to Universal heathcare sooner, rather than later.
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That's a risk, but I'm not sure it's super likely in the near/middle term. Most of the surveys I've seen of the public has more people against it than I would have guessed. I doubt very much it happens with a Republican congress or President. Really needed Sanders or Warren to win for that to happen in the near term. At least IMHO. 

 
SayWhat? said:
JFC I’ve got 25% left in cash and was going to push half of that back in on Monday and balked.  Now what?
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Patience. 

This is advice for anyone who A) has a job that could be impacted by the economy & B) has cash on the sidelines:

If you miss the first xyz move up and have to buy in late, it means your job is most likely safe, but you were a little late. I'm happy to be in that position and anyone else should be too. 

If you sit back and wait and it tanks hard, it means everything is ####ed, but you'll be able to buy in much lower and separate funds for possible emergencies. Personally, I have a bank account that I set aside a 6 month emergency fund completely separate from equities, assets, & 401k. 

 
[icon] said:
Odds are strong this is a false bottom and we'll see some pullback once deaths start piling up. It's been posted numerous times that bear rallies are the strongest. 

Could be a true shift but I don't see how considering we have months of pain and thousands of deaths just over the horizon. 

I'm still ~60% cash and the GF is still 90% cash.  Missed a good opportunity to buy in a bit more at what COULD have been a bottom but I'm not solid 100%

Disclaimer: Not an expert
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In bear markets you take the stairs down and the elevator up.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
That's a risk, but I'm not sure it's super likely in the near/middle term. Most of the surveys I've seen of the public has more people against it than I would have guessed. I doubt very much it happens with a Republican congress or President. Really needed Sanders or Warren to win for that to happen in the near term. At least IMHO. 
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I don't think short/midterm is a danger for it to happen. But with the shortage of basic equipment and supplies and general lack of preparedness added to the bailing out going on now, it is getting harder and harder to justify private heath care industry.  Nationalized health care would have been in a much stronger position to deal with this pandemic.

 
[icon] said:
Elaborate? 😂

slow down / fast up? 
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When the overall market is downward such as now you tend to have a slow gravity on the price of stocks which means more often than not they are slowly going down.  .5% here, .25% there.  Then a new item hits and everyone panic buys and the market goes up 3% in a day.  The market is still trending down over time but the violent moves are to the upside.

In a bull market it’s the other way around.  It’s up up up up a little at a time and then boom a 4% drop.

 
Melting up nicely. However the ^vix and TVIX re holding their ground.  I want to say if i recall, that isn't good.

 
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The Ref said:
When the overall market is downward such as now you tend to have a slow gravity on the price of stocks which means more often than not they are slowly going down.  .5% here, .25% there.  Then a new item hits and everyone panic buys and the market goes up 3% in a day.  The market is still trending down over time but the violent moves are to the upside.

In a bull market it’s the other way around.  It’s up up up up a little at a time and then boom a 4% drop.
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Dammit, now I have to sell all the OTIS elevator stock I just bought

 
[icon] said:
Odds are strong this is a false bottom and we'll see some pullback once deaths start piling up. It's been posted numerous times that bear rallies are the strongest. 

Could be a true shift but I don't see how considering we have months of pain and thousands of deaths just over the horizon. 

 

Disclaimer: Not an expert
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This is pretty much where I’m at.  

 
Just an fyi. Average time between the ^VIX peaking and the bottom is 75 days, which if the VIX has peaked, around June 1st. Thats from the Cramu site. 

 
Man In The Box said:
This is pretty much where I’m at.  
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Yeah personally I think that if we get the jobless claims people expect it drops a nice bit tomorrow.     I mean we can say this is all "priced in" but no one really knows.    And like I say looooong term if people think it's like people crowding malls and buying yachts and mansions once we get the all clear to go back to work, I'm guessing they are a little off.

 
DrJ said:
Yeah personally I think that if we get the jobless claims people expect it drops a nice bit tomorrow.     I mean we can say this is all "priced in" but no one really knows.    And like I say looooong term if people think it's like people crowding malls and buying yachts and mansions once we get the all clear to go back to work, I'm guessing they are a little off.
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It's actually possible that the jobless claims comes out, it's only 1.5 million and people say that's good and it jumps again.   Who knows haha. 

 
SayWhat? said:
Meaning on average they’d expect the bottom to be around June 1?
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If this just climbs right back to where it was, it's going to go on record as the shortest bear market in history by a mile.     But it was also the shortest time from peak to bear market by a mile too.

 
DrJ said:
If this just climbs right back to where it was, it's going to go on record as the shortest bear market in history by a mile.     But it was also the shortest time from peak to bear market by a mile too.
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Unemployment numbers show their ugly face April 3rd. 

 
See to me what you're kind of seeing here is that certain parts of the market weren't really sold all that much at all.     Other parts of the market like airlines, restaurants, and hotels were all getting MASSIVELY oversold.    So knowing those places aren't going to go out of business pushed them all up, which pushes up the market as a whole.     

 
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